Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LII "Lottery/Draft" Edition)

[OrlandO]

His moves were not meant to instantly wow or gratify fans. They were calculated and we're starting to see the pieces come together like a puzzle. He still has a lot to prove, but he's orchestrating it all very nicely up to this point. Like I said, he's putting us into position to succeed in the future and that's not an easy task. Assets, young prospects, financial flexibility in the near future for quality free agents, and two top lotto picks heading our way. Getting some of those may be easy, but settings us up for all of that in a matter of months after the dwightmare and the crap Otis Smith left us with? That's damn impressive. And he did not have plenty of assets to deal. He had a disgruntled superstar with only a year left on his deal who demanded to be traded to just two teams while killing off potential rental deals. JRich and Duhon were not assets either. In fact, getting rid of them devalued Dwight even further. Redick is expiring... despite all the noise we heard in rumors, his value was very low and we got a promising young player for him. I'm not sure what you were expecting for the players we traded, but I'd like to hear plausible scenarios better than what we got in reality...

[Noonskadoodle]

Damn we should at least be getting a 1st round pick from Seattle for Raj.

Henny def slacking on that one.

[MagicFan32]

With the dwightmare continuing in LA, Bynum not playing at all for the sixers, and the returns we got in all the trades this season, Henny should be one of the runner-ups for GM of the year.

No.

Stop being homers. While he is far from the incompetence of Weisbrod and Otis, Hennigan is not the second coming (at least not yet). He hasn't 'gotten the upper hand' in these deals...he has sent out players that other teams valued very highly...D12, Ryno, JJ, etc...and gotten back some assets in return, the value of which have yet to be determined in most cases. No GM in the league would have had those assets to work with and drawn a blank.

On the flip side, he has overpaid Jameer...brought in Afflalo who is still owed like $23mil and whose name was not ringing out loudly from other teams at the deadline...and gotten pushed around a bit on the salary and draft pick parts of those trades.

I'm pulling for him to bring us a title and make me eat my words, but as of right now I just haven't seen anything exceptional out of the guy.

Check the going rate for above average starting point guards, Nelson has essentially a 2 year deal, and some of you bash Hennigan for this? Nelson is a bridge to the next guy, it was very obvious and to me it's hilarious to see any of you concern yourselves with what we're paying guys, when it has NO effect on future plans at all

[MagicFan32]

No matter how you look at it, they ain't gonna give executive of the year consideration to the 2nd worst team in the league, especially when we didn't lose anyone to free agency. I think Hennigan is doing a fine job but some of you are seriously overrating him.

I don't think the Dwight trade is all that great, but I guess that's the best he could possibly get. Jameer signing is bad, I don't care if we're not doing anything with the cap, it should've been for 2 years. JJ trade looks good and I supported it since the beginning, but most likely Tobias will turn into a good role player -- you guys are seriously loving him too much.

It IS for 2 years!!!!!! *facepalm*

[dsg2021]

Jameer had Dal and Ny and one more other team like Por wanting him as a FA I think. It's hard because PG is covered pretty well around the league and contenders want vets, not the cap teams. I think Jameer had value in his last year or so of his old contract with the rumored Por deal I think it was also; Dre Miller and a 1st or 1st swap was the deal I think. Worst case would've been Jameer shopping 1-3mil deals with a ton of teams everywhere interested if he could do primary backup for most of them, then see if the bidding gets him a MLE or higher. The other main thing is it was presumed Jameer would stay because he is a career Magic player and Captain and a great PG. I think he was looking for more years than anything else, but Hennigan got him to only 1 more season now basically, the kicker is a 2/8.6mil partial the last season of the contract and the average of 8.5~mil these two seasons probably being 1-2 mil higher than expected. I'd do that contract any day, protects when the Magic want cap and Jameer has terrific stats in playoffs and big games, like a Captain should. He could re-sign on after some serious cap spending too depending how that all plays out and his personal preferences, maybe as long as its not below 2-3mil or so, if it happens as soon as 2014-15 or later. Would be amazing to see him as a 6th Man type with ~20 high efficiency minutes but there's no Magic PG close enough as good as a focused Jameer to take his starter spot. (No offense to Moore and Udrih)

[glennathan]

I think there are 2 legit contenders for Exec of the Year. Morey in Houston & Hennigan in Orlando.

Here is my reasoning for each:

Morey: Pulled off the deals for Lin and Asik and got them on to poison pill contracts that will not harm the team until 2015. He successfully traded for James Harden and got him to agree to a contract extension giving them a top tier SG for the foreseeable future. He made 2 trades at the trade deadline and succesfully obtained the #5 pick in last years draft and got a draft pick for lower end bench players. They not only did the trade and got more flexibility they now have enough expiring contracts and cap space to go after their big man gem in Dwight Howard.

Hennigan: was given the reigns of control literally 2 weeks before the draft. He fired the entire front office staff and all coaching staff except for Mark Price at the time. He successfully drafted Nicholson and O'Quinn in a draft when he easily could have gotten burned. He traded the centerpiece and figurehead (aka Cancer) of the team and completed a very complex and intricated deal giving us anywhere from 3-7 draft picks (see terms on Philly and lakers 1st picks), also gave us our Center of the foreseeable future, and got the largest TPE in NBA history. Continuing on he hired an incredible front office staff which gave us the scouting ability to pull off the JJ trade. He signed Jameer Nelson the captain of the organization to a contract which only will benefit us in the future to obtain more benefits. The team has cap space to sign a max level free agent should the choose to do so which is something the team has not had in close to 7 years.

Now between the two I think the nod goes to Morey only because they have a winning record and are in the playoffs. I think orlando is too raw for now and Hennigan could possibly win the Exec of Year next year seeing how this summer goes.

[ilikebeer]

You can't be executive year and have a team that wins 25 games.

Yes, he's done a good job rebuilding the team, but he's yet to acquire any potential All-Stars (other than possibly Vucevic). The ceiling for Harkless, Harris, and Nicholson seems to be league average starters to slightly above league average starters.

Hennigan does deserve a lot of credit for the rebuild, but his legacy will be completely based off who he acquires in these next two upcoming drafts and if he is able to land any superstars during free agency in 2014 or 2015. If he misses out on both of those then his tenure will not be seen as a success.

[tiderulz]

I'm not saying the guy is terrible, i'm just saying so far he is just 'a guy'. He is competent, but not special.

He didn't turn water into wine. He had plenty of assets to deal, and in each case he got exactly what a dozen other GMs would have gotten at best. Dwight Howard was a likely Hall of Famer in his prime...do you think there was any chance we walked away from that without a few good assets in return?

But not once have I said 'Wow...I can't believe he talked them into THAT'. And a couple of times, i've thought 'He needed to negotiate a little harder there'.

really? I thought all the other talking heads said that he should take Bynum. How would that be looking right now? He took the risky choice, and we now have some youth to grow with along with a bunch of picks over the next few years. He drafted late in the 1st and Nicholson is looking good. Not great, but you dont get lucky all the time and grab a great player with such a late pick.

[tiderulz]

I think there are 2 legit contenders for Exec of the Year. Morey in Houston & Hennigan in Orlando.

Here is my reasoning for each:

Morey: Pulled off the deals for Lin and Asik and got them on to poison pill contracts that will not harm the team until 2015. He successfully traded for James Harden and got him to agree to a contract extension giving them a top tier SG for the foreseeable future. He made 2 trades at the trade deadline and succesfully obtained the #5 pick in last years draft and got a draft pick for lower end bench players. They not only did the trade and got more flexibility they now have enough expiring contracts and cap space to go after their big man gem in Dwight Howard. n

actually, the poison pill only affected the teams if they had matched. Houston gets to average the contract over 3 years, so they dont take a hit in the 3rd year.

[Optimus_Steel]

His moves were not meant to instantly wow or gratify fans. They were calculated and we're starting to see the pieces come together like a puzzle. He still has a lot to prove, but he's orchestrating it all very nicely up to this point. Like I said, he's putting us into position to succeed in the future and that's not an easy task. Assets, young prospects, financial flexibility in the near future for quality free agents, and two top lotto picks heading our way. Getting some of those may be easy, but settings us up for all of that in a matter of months after the dwightmare and the crap Otis Smith left us with? That's damn impressive. And he did not have plenty of assets to deal. He had a disgruntled superstar with only a year left on his deal who demanded to be traded to just two teams while killing off potential rental deals. JRich and Duhon were not assets either. In fact, getting rid of them devalued Dwight even further. Redick is expiring... despite all the noise we heard in rumors, his value was very low and we got a promising young player for him. I'm not sure what you were expecting for the players we traded, but I'd like to hear plausible scenarios better than what we got in reality...

I am very impressed with what Henny is doing and for someone to suggest that any average GM could have done the same considering our circumstances and the relatively short time is ridiculous.

[flying_mollusk]

I will fully admit that I was one of those people that thought we got ass raped in that trade. But you have to admit, day by day, Hennigan is looking better and better. For all intents and purposes, the guy is playing a long game. And his maneuvers have put us in a pretty amazing position. The context of this is simple. No team ever really gets a good return on its starters. This is especially true when a player handcuffs you by assuring that he will only resign with specific teams. If the Nets and Lakers were like the Knicks pre-Anthony, ie had great young talent to trade, it might be a different story. But the teams Howard picked didnt have great assets.

I think Hennigan knew that we were going to suck for the next 2-3 years, and that our best method for obtaining star level talent was the 2014 draft. So he figured out the best mechanism for maximizing that suckiness and setting up the team for best case situation following that draft. Everything he has done has played into that.

We are developing a stockpile of really young talented players that will either supplement that 2014 drafted player or will can be flipped for a star. We have two TPEs that can be used to acquire additional talent and draft picks and operate really well in the new CBA. We are waiting to create cap space, rather than creating it right away, because we need to add to that 2014 player picked, not add players now. I dont think he anticipated getting a high pick this year, so that is just icing on the cake.

[arkknight1988]

Only problem I see is if our top pick this year and young guys play well enough to keep us out of the top five in the 2014 draft.

[G-Heel]

No matter how you look at it, they ain't gonna give executive of the year consideration to the 2nd worst team in the league, especially when we didn't lose anyone to free agency. I think Hennigan is doing a fine job but some of you are seriously overrating him.

I don't think the Dwight trade is all that great, but I guess that's the best he could possibly get. Jameer signing is bad, I don't care if we're not doing anything with the cap, it should've been for 2 years. JJ trade looks good and I supported it since the beginning, but most likely Tobias will turn into a good role player -- you guys are seriously loving him too much.

It IS for 2 years!!!!!! *facepalm*

It is 3, but looks like 3rd year is team option. Initial reports were 3rd year player option so I guess that's where I got confused. Regardless, most of my initial points still stand.

Hennigan looks like a fine GM with a vision and a huge upgrade from Otis, but he's nowhere near perfect and talks about executive of the year is just stupid. If he can get good value for Harrington, BBD and Afflalo, then I'll be sold. This summer will be very important.

[Edrock]

...have a team that wins 25 games...

You're expecting the Magic to go on a real tear to finish the season huh???

To give further details of contract guarantees:

Jameer's contract is fully guaranteed next year for $8M, and partially guranateed for $4M the following year.
Harrington's contract is only 50% guaranteed for the last two years (next year and the following around $3.6M)
Hedo's contract is partially guaranteed for $6M next year (the last year).

( source = http://www.spotrac.com/nba/orlando-magic/yearly/)

Those details, certainly make Harrington & Jameer's contracts more palatable (especially since no cap room is really necessary for next season).
Can anyone expound on 'partial guarantees'? Do players have to be waived before a certain date for them to only receive their partial salary? If so how does the cap hit change for those partial salaries?

Partial guarantees really are the way to structure player salaries, in contrast the last few contracts that were signed or acquired under Otis were fully guaranteed (Arenas, J-Rich, Duhon, Q-Rich)

[londoncollin]

I'm not saying the guy is terrible, i'm just saying so far he is just 'a guy'. He is competent, but not special.

He didn't turn water into wine. He had plenty of assets to deal, and in each case he got exactly what a dozen other GMs would have gotten at best. Dwight Howard was a likely Hall of Famer in his prime...do you think there was any chance we walked away from that without a few good assets in return?

But not once have I said 'Wow...I can't believe he talked them into THAT'. And a couple of times, i've thought 'He needed to negotiate a little harder there'.

No, but he turned grapes into wine and as we've seen that can be pretty hard to do.

[Def Swami]

Skip on First Take, while talking about Doug Collins just said he has a respected source in the Sixers organization that said Bynum's latest MRI showed degeneration.

[trebone]

He moved Duhon and JRich, in my book that puts you in the top tier of Executives in this league!

[trebone]

Skip on First Take, while talking about Doug Collins just said he has a respected source in the Sixers organization that said Bynum's latest MRI showed degeneration.

I dont know about anybody else but I actually feel bad for Philly, you have to give them respect for the dare to be great move but in the end they will have traded Iggy/Harkless/Vucci/1st for Jrich

[RickB-Orlando]

With the dwightmare continuing in LA, Bynum not playing at all for the sixers, and the returns we got in all the trades this season, Henny should be one of the runner-ups for GM of the year.

No.

Stop being homers. While he is far from the incompetence of Weisbrod and Otis, Hennigan is not the second coming (at least not yet). He hasn't 'gotten the upper hand' in these deals...he has sent out players that other teams valued very highly...D12, Ryno, JJ, etc...and gotten back some assets in return, the value of which have yet to be determined in most cases. No GM in the league would have had those assets to work with and drawn a blank.

On the flip side, he has overpaid Jameer...brought in Afflalo who is still owed like $23mil and whose name was not ringing out loudly from other teams at the deadline...and gotten pushed around a bit on the salary and draft pick parts of those trades.

I'm pulling for him to bring us a title and make me eat my words, but as of right now I just haven't seen anything exceptional out of the guy.

Well, you can sit and wait for it all to completely play out before you give him credit. I said one of the runner-ups for GM of the year, not GM of the decade or even to win it this season. I already like what I see and think he did incredibly well with the hand he was dealt.

Dwight limited our options and decreased his value with all his shenanigans, so we were getting pennies on the dollar. Hennigan turned that into youth with potential, flexibility and assets. Vucevic? He's not Dwight, but Henny managed to replace him with a top 5 rebounder in his first year as a starter at 22yrs old. This guy was virtually an unknown before the trade. Nobody even mentioned him after the trade went down, as if he was just a filler. Harkless continues to show he wasn't just a throw in either. Do you not like Nicholson? I see a lot of duds picked after him. O'Quinn's not bad for a late 2nd rounder either. Harris for an expiring Redick who will likely leave the Bucks this summer seems like a good transaction as well. I think Henny has already proven he has an eye for talent where it's not obvious yet. By draft picks, I'm guessing you mean picks that would likely land mid to late first round? Most of these guys we acquired this season are mid first rounders... in a way, we did get picks... only we don't have to wait for them.

Why are you so hung up on Afflalo and Nelson. Afflalo's contract is very reasonable and he's easily tradable if he's not in Hennigan's long-term plans. Nelson's deal is short and the final year isn't guaranteed. So what if he's making $8 mil? He'll be gone when it matters.

And you realize the dwight trade could have easily gone terribly wrong in multiple ways, right? We could be sitting here with Bynum or Royce White or a player who would keep us in the middle of the pack... Instead, Hennigan set us up with a fantastic shot at returning to contention sooner rather than much, much later. Along with our current prospects and assets, we're going to get two high picks over the next two drafts and we'll have money to spend in free agency immediately after that. Meanwhile, our trade partners, who had contending aspiration before the season, are going no where. We all know LA is struggling even with the almighty Dwight and Bynum is sidelined, but we also have to remember Hennigan shipped JRich out... look at him now, out for 9 months with injury and officially untradable considering his injury, age and how awful he was playing.

Finally, after being criticized by analysts and GMs at the beginning of the season, there are now reports that many GMs are impressed with what Hennigan has accomplished over these past 6 or 7 months. That was a quick turnaround.

Don't forget he unloaded Duhon. That action alone merits respect.

[BadMofoPimp]

I am sorry. I like the work Henny has done, but I won't heap praise until another year or two. Because, this team could still end up like the Bobcats. Henny is gonna have to prove me wrong!!!