How will the draft lottery shake out?

[Skin]

How can you claim that when the results aren’t even in? If we win the lottery from 6th place, do we concede that winning extra games against the logic of losing more for better odds was actually the correct approach?

How are you not disgusted? It's like any glimmer of hope is good enough for you to justify. If we had a 1% chance would you be here saying, how can you claim we won't get the number one pick if it didn't happen?

We totally messed up our chances of landing a bona-fide top prospect. In a year where the FO did enough to commit to a tank, the rest of the team failed to execute their vision.

We suffered yet another season as loyal fans and it's truly pathetic that after a decade we have not a single star player.

We're clearly in a new era but I fear we may end up recycling through the next 8 years with good but not great players who will lead us no where. Same path, different names. This draft was supposed to be the year where we get a star.

To come away with such a pathetic season and not get one should disgust us all. There is NOTHING gained by winning these meaningless games.

I’m not disgusted because I know there is still a lottery to play out. Sure I’m disappointed we’ve cost ourselves prime odds, but we still have top 6 odds of a top 4 pick at the least.

There’s plenty of time to be angry after the results are in. May as well delay it until then, especially whilst there still is a chance, otherwise you’re just making yourself suffer extra.

I actually think this is disingenuous. Truly though. Would you really be upset if we picked outside of the Top 5?

Because I can see you flipping positions... wouldn't you simply shift into survival mode and try to enlighten your mind about how good the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects are?... or how often history has shown that it's possible to draft a star outside of the Top 5?



Because, I know I'll be there too. I've already started prepping myself to get jacked up for Keon Johnson over the past couple months.

[Xatticus]

You realise every lottery team will be hoping to 'beat the odds' to win it, right? When the top 'odds' are an 85% chance of not winning the lottery, there's still a lot of room left to hoping things go right.

We are NOT doing ourselves ANY favors by winning. Period. It's just worsening our odds.

But if the winning ticket comes from the 4-6 spot and we happen to be there, we would have inadvertently done ourselves a favour by winning games which seemed meaningless at the time and damaging to our chances - but in the end they didn’t have that effect.

Can you see how those results still exist in that weird state of flux?

This isn't really a Schrodinger's cat conundrum here. We know the odds. In the space of a week, our odds of landing Cade Cunningham have dropped by 30%. By falling from 2nd to 5th in the tank race, 30% of our ping pong balls have been distributed to other teams.

Presti tried to tank this year, but the product he put on the floor was more competitive than the roster we pieced together with the intention of reaching the playoffs. Presti wasn't deterred and doubled down by shutting down their best players and their odds of landing Cunningham have since increased by 277%.

The margins that we are writing off as inconsequential are the difference between success and starvation in the stock market.

[SOUL]

We are NOT doing ourselves ANY favors by winning. Period. It's just worsening our odds.

But if the winning ticket comes from the 4-6 spot and we happen to be there, we would have inadvertently done ourselves a favour by winning games which seemed meaningless at the time and damaging to our chances - but in the end they didn’t have that effect.

Can you see how those results still exist in that weird state of flux?

This isn't really a Schrodinger's cat conundrum here. We know the odds. In the space of a week, our odds of landing Cade Cunningham have dropped by 30%. By falling from 2nd to 5th in the tank race, 30% of our ping pong balls have been distributed to other teams.

Presti tried to tank this year, but the product he put on the floor was more competitive than the roster we pieced together with the intention of reaching the playoffs. Presti wasn't deterred and doubled down by shutting down their best players and their odds of landing Cunningham have since increased by 277%.

The margins that we are writing off as inconsequential are the difference between success and starvation in the stock market.

SGA has a legitimate tear. The only thing they've done (that nobody else has done, to be fair) is shut down a completely healthy Horford super early in the season. I don't think we really had that equivalent on the team that we could've done that with besides Ross.

Our equivalent move was actually trading for a bunch of young guys that shouldn't win together but have been, with some vets sprinkled in. Houston has still been playing vets, Detroit until last week had vets playing games, Minnesota had a lot of injuries, Cavs have some vets sprinkled in, OKC has a super young roster in general.

Maybe Ross was our Horford but he was really bad for a large stretch of games so he was helping the tank a lot too by not passing and missing shots.

[pepe1991]

What gets under my skin, since trades, is idea that we are now doing something brand new, and something that Orlando has never done.
Orlando will finish THIS YEAR with PROBABLY 5th worst record. It will be 5th time in 9 years for this team to achive it.

Magic do this crap all the time. They suck, but they don't suck hard enough. Right at the tail end of a season, they go on some bull***t winning streak and fans pad themselfs on a back how team is "improving" and lie to themselfs that Mo Harkless gained much needed experience for next season from it. They lie to themselfs that Elfrid Payton will learn how to shoot, Hezonja will learn how to play basketball and Gordon will eventually become allstar. Years pass, nothing happends.

New times, just change name of Harkless, Hezonja and Payton with Okeke, Anthony and Hampton. Results will be same.

[Bensational]

How are you not disgusted? It's like any glimmer of hope is good enough for you to justify. If we had a 1% chance would you be here saying, how can you claim we won't get the number one pick if it didn't happen?

We totally messed up our chances of landing a bona-fide top prospect. In a year where the FO did enough to commit to a tank, the rest of the team failed to execute their vision.

We suffered yet another season as loyal fans and it's truly pathetic that after a decade we have not a single star player.

We're clearly in a new era but I fear we may end up recycling through the next 8 years with good but not great players who will lead us no where. Same path, different names. This draft was supposed to be the year where we get a star.

To come away with such a pathetic season and not get one should disgust us all. There is NOTHING gained by winning these meaningless games.

I’m not disgusted because I know there is still a lottery to play out. Sure I’m disappointed we’ve cost ourselves prime odds, but we still have top 6 odds of a top 4 pick at the least.

There’s plenty of time to be angry after the results are in. May as well delay it until then, especially whilst there still is a chance, otherwise you’re just making yourself suffer extra.

I actually think this is disingenuous. Truly though. Would you really be upset if we picked outside of the Top 5?

Because I can see you flipping positions... wouldn't you simply shift into survival mode and try to enlighten your mind about how good the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects are?... or how often history has shown that it's possible to draft a star outside of the Top 5?



Because, I know I'll be there too. I've already started prepping myself to get jacked up for Keon Johnson over the past couple months.

For sure I’d be upset about missing out on Cade/Suggs/Green the same way we missed out on Luka and Trae. Or I’d be exhausting ways to convince myself we could trade up for them.

But you’re right, I will also then turn my attention to trying to find the best value from our spot, or sleepers. And when I think back on previous drafts where I’ve wanted guys like Mitchell and SGA, I still have some confidence pieces will be around if we’re smart enough.

So yeah, when it comes to rebuilding and drafts I’ll always lean into the positive potential of the unknown. I’ve spent enough time being angry with the team for committing to players I didn’t want to follow, and it drains the fun out of this escape for me.

[Xatticus]

But if the winning ticket comes from the 4-6 spot and we happen to be there, we would have inadvertently done ourselves a favour by winning games which seemed meaningless at the time and damaging to our chances - but in the end they didn’t have that effect.

Can you see how those results still exist in that weird state of flux?

This isn't really a Schrodinger's cat conundrum here. We know the odds. In the space of a week, our odds of landing Cade Cunningham have dropped by 30%. By falling from 2nd to 5th in the tank race, 30% of our ping pong balls have been distributed to other teams.

Presti tried to tank this year, but the product he put on the floor was more competitive than the roster we pieced together with the intention of reaching the playoffs. Presti wasn't deterred and doubled down by shutting down their best players and their odds of landing Cunningham have since increased by 277%.

The margins that we are writing off as inconsequential are the difference between success and starvation in the stock market.

SGA has a legitimate tear. The only thing they've done (that nobody else has done, to be fair) is shut down a completely healthy Horford super early in the season. I don't think we really had that equivalent on the team that we could've done that with besides Ross.

Our equivalent move was actually trading for a bunch of young guys that shouldn't win together but have been, with some vets sprinkled in. Houston has still been playing vets, Detroit until last week had vets playing games, Minnesota had a lot of injuries, Cavs have some vets sprinkled in, OKC has a super young roster in general.

Maybe Ross was our Horford but he was really bad for a large stretch of games so he was helping the tank a lot too by not passing and missing shots.

All plantar fasciitis injuries are tears. I don't really want to go down this rabbit hole, but if it was a "significant tear" as has just been reported in the last day or two, then he should've had surgery. Even then, you are looking at being back in 3 months.

Regardless, that's not all they have done. They have been healthy scratching anyone that can help them win games with regularity. They've done what they needed to do to get a team that was in the playoff race at the trade deadline down into the neighborhood that will secure them the top odds come lottery time. Meanwhile, Hammond goes on radio and does his 'woe is me' routine and blames our situation on bad luck while we pick up a win by starting Vucevic, Fournier, Aminu, and Gordon the day before we trade them. You make your own luck. This is why we are where we are while we watch Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly fight for playoff position.

I'm being cautious with my criticism, because we don't know what the outcome of the lottery will be, but we certainly aren't doing all we can to improve the long-term fortunes of this franchise.

[SOUL]

I'm being cautious with my criticism, because we don't know what the outcome of the lottery will be, but we certainly aren't doing all we can to improve the long-term fortunes of this franchise.

I do agree with there being more to criticize pre-trade and taking so long to make such an obvious move, but post-trade we've won some truly baffling games with huge games from players I'd never expect to carry us.

[Bensational]

We are NOT doing ourselves ANY favors by winning. Period. It's just worsening our odds.

But if the winning ticket comes from the 4-6 spot and we happen to be there, we would have inadvertently done ourselves a favour by winning games which seemed meaningless at the time and damaging to our chances - but in the end they didn’t have that effect.

Can you see how those results still exist in that weird state of flux?

This isn't really a Schrodinger's cat conundrum here. We know the odds. In the space of a week, our odds of landing Cade Cunningham have dropped by 30%. By falling from 2nd to 5th in the tank race, 30% of our ping pong balls have been distributed to other teams.

I’m not a physicist so I’m stepping out of my comfort zone, but isn’t this exactly a Schrödinger’s cat situation? We know the probabilities but we still don’t know the result until the box is opened and observed - aka, the lottery happens.

And if Cade is the undisputed #1 pick then we’ve only decreased our odds by 4.3% in our drop down, from 15% to 9.7%. Stock markets aren’t built on an 85% chance of failure, gambling addictions are.

[basketballRob]

We can still finish anywhere from 3-6. We play Minnesota, and I could see them winning 3 more games at least. OKC and Cleveland could still win a game. If we're tied, we could still win the tiebreaker.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Magic_Stick914]

At this point I’ll be glad if we just get two top ten picks ... or trade to move up ... but I’ll be more if we lose the Bulls pick than losing on any of the top 5 players

[pepe1991]

But if the winning ticket comes from the 4-6 spot and we happen to be there, we would have inadvertently done ourselves a favour by winning games which seemed meaningless at the time and damaging to our chances - but in the end they didn’t have that effect.

Can you see how those results still exist in that weird state of flux?

This isn't really a Schrodinger's cat conundrum here. We know the odds. In the space of a week, our odds of landing Cade Cunningham have dropped by 30%. By falling from 2nd to 5th in the tank race, 30% of our ping pong balls have been distributed to other teams.

I’m not a physicist so I’m stepping out of my comfort zone, but isn’t this exactly a Schrödinger’s cat situation? We know the probabilities but we still don’t know the result until the box is opened and observed - aka, the lottery happens.

And if Cade is the undisputed #1 pick then we’ve only decreased our odds by 4.3% in our drop down, from 15% to 9.7%. Stock markets aren’t built on an 85% chance of failure, gambling addictions are.

Because Schrodinger's cat experiment has equal, 50% chance at being alive and 50% chance dieing from radioactive atom and poisen.
There are just 2 outcomes in it ,decay or not.

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.

If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.


This is why seeding matters. ONce 4 balls are drawn, every remaining team keeps their seeding order.

So let's say Raptors won 1# pick, Minessota 2#, OKC 3# and Cavs 4# (those are only picks that are drawn ! ) , this would be final list:

1# Raptors
2# T wolves
3# OKC
4# Cavs
5# Houston
6# Pistons
7# Orlando


Because jumping chances for lower seeded teams are so high, teams like Magic, Cavs and OKC can fall so much and that's why they have, from 6th seed 46% chance at drafting 7th or 8th.
Worst record in basketball is granted 5th pick, if they fail to be drawn from only 4 balls that will be drawn out random. It's safe net mechanism. If there is no that, there would be no point of tanking, but bad teams would stay bad for very long time ( you can argue they stay bad for long period of time regardless...)

[Bensational]

Schrödinger’s cat experiment is just a simplified example of probabilistic quantum mechanics theories. It doesn’t only hold specifically to binary outcomes. The experiment can be expanded to larger systems through Wigner’s Friend.

Basically, the ‘system’ of the nba draft lottery still has too many variables to determine an answer with high certainty. We still have games to play, and the lottery to play out. The team’s result is in a superposition until the lottery is drawn.

So we are presently both winners of the draft and losers of the draft, the same way the cat is both alive and dead at the same time.

[Skin]

We ain't drafting cats, but the guys who think the Magic are doing nothing wrong will be the same guys accepting their failures.

[pepe1991]

Schrödinger’s cat experiment is just a simplified example of probabilistic quantum mechanics theories. It doesn’t only hold specifically to binary outcomes. The experiment can be expanded to larger systems through Wigner’s Friend.

Basically, the ‘system’ of the nba draft lottery still has too many variables to determine an answer with high certainty. We still have games to play, and the lottery to play out. The team’s result is in a superposition until the lottery is drawn.

So we are presently both winners of the draft and losers of the draft, the same way the cat is both alive and dead at the same time.

Orlando can draft , depending of final seeding from 1# to 8th . So there are 8 different outcomes.

Schrodinger's cat experiment has only 2 outcomes. Cat lives or cat dies.

[Ducklett]

What gets under my skin, since trades, is idea that we are now doing something brand new, and something that Orlando has never done.
Orlando will finish THIS YEAR with PROBABLY 5th worst record. It will be 5th time in 9 years for this team to achive it.

Magic do this crap all the time. They suck, but they don't suck hard enough. Right at the tail end of a season, they go on some bull***t winning streak and fans pad themselfs on a back how team is "improving" and lie to themselfs that Mo Harkless gained much needed experience for next season from it. They lie to themselfs that Elfrid Payton will learn how to shoot, Hezonja will learn how to play basketball and Gordon will eventually become allstar. Years pass, nothing happends.

New times, just change name of Harkless, Hezonja and Payton with Okeke, Anthony and Hampton. Results will be same.

People said the same about Julius Randle, Sabonis, Oladipo, Jarrett Allen, Jokic, Anthony Edwards, Christian Wood, and I could go on.

You could also list the countless failures. I am not saying Okeke, Cole, and RJ are good or will become good, but not all young players are the same.

[Bensational]

Schrödinger’s cat experiment is just a simplified example of probabilistic quantum mechanics theories. It doesn’t only hold specifically to binary outcomes. The experiment can be expanded to larger systems through Wigner’s Friend.

Basically, the ‘system’ of the nba draft lottery still has too many variables to determine an answer with high certainty. We still have games to play, and the lottery to play out. The team’s result is in a superposition until the lottery is drawn.

So we are presently both winners of the draft and losers of the draft, the same way the cat is both alive and dead at the same time.

Orlando can draft , depending of final seeding from 1# to 8th . So there are 8 different outcomes.

Schrodinger's cat experiment has only 2 outcomes. Cat lives or cat dies.

No, the experiment has at minimum two variables (depending on which one you’re looking at - some have hammers and vials) of the radioactive particle being un-decayed or decayed, and the car being alive or dead.

The cat is just the headline. The undefined system inside the box with only probabilities to estimate it leave the concept vulnerable to results which don’t add up on classical mathematics or physics, such as a superposition of multiple states - that’s the point of the experiment, as far as I’ve understood it.

[basketballRob]

If you combine Orlando's and Chicago's chances of getting into the top 4, their is around a 75% that one of them will.


http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

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[Xatticus]

Schrödinger’s cat experiment is just a simplified example of probabilistic quantum mechanics theories. It doesn’t only hold specifically to binary outcomes. The experiment can be expanded to larger systems through Wigner’s Friend.

Basically, the ‘system’ of the nba draft lottery still has too many variables to determine an answer with high certainty. We still have games to play, and the lottery to play out. The team’s result is in a superposition until the lottery is drawn.

So we are presently both winners of the draft and losers of the draft, the same way the cat is both alive and dead at the same time.

Orlando can draft , depending of final seeding from 1# to 8th . So there are 8 different outcomes.

Schrodinger's cat experiment has only 2 outcomes. Cat lives or cat dies.

No, the experiment has at minimum two variables (depending on which one you’re looking at - some have hammers and vials) of the radioactive particle being un-decayed or decayed, and the car being alive or dead.

The cat is just the headline. The undefined system inside the box with only probabilities to estimate it leave the concept vulnerable to results which don’t add up on classical mathematics or physics, such as a superposition of multiple states - that’s the point of the experiment, as far as I’ve understood it.

It's not really about probabilities at all and I regret bringing it up as that isn't at all the point I was trying to make. Schrodinger's cat is a thought experiment intended as a critique of the idea that all potentialities exist simultaneously until observed or measured. I was trying to point out that we are really overthinking this.

I see no point in indulging in hypotheticals about what may or may not happen with the lottery drawing. This is just statistics. Assuming the drawing is indeed random, then this is nothing more than probabilities. We want a higher probability that our numbers get picked, plain and simple. If the team that finishes 8th ends up winning the lottery, that doesn't necessarily mean that had we finished 8th, we would have won the lottery, so there is no point in ruminating on the matter.

And if Cade is the undisputed #1 pick then we’ve only decreased our odds by 4.3% in our drop down, from 15% to 9.7%. Stock markets aren’t built on an 85% chance of failure, gambling addictions are.

Our odds haven't decreased by 4.3% in this case. They have decreased by 30%. 4.2 is a huge chunk out of 14. Let me put it in terms one can personalize... suppose you have a job that pays you $50,000 per year, but management comes to you and tells you that they are slashing your salary to $35,000. This is what has happened to our odds. These numbers are changing by the day due to the results of games, but the idea is fairly straightforward. If we end up 6th, then our odds of winning the lottery will have declined by 36% from what they were when we had the 2nd-best odds.

What you are arguing is that this change is negligible when compared to the total amount of salary paid out to employees. One could take your argument further. If we make the playoffs, we only damage our odds of winning the Cade Cunningham sweepstakes by 14%! In reality, our odds of winning the lottery would have declined by 100%. We would have no chance of winning the lottery.

[thelead]

Math just isn't for everyone (take it from someone who used to tutor college students while in college). Maybe we'll luck out but it doesn't change the math.

[thelead]

Also... um... 15 - 9.7 =/= 4.3