Tracking the 538 RAPTOR model of the Orlando Magic

Post #41 » by **eyriq** » Sat Feb 18, 2023 1:10 am

When we started tracking this we were winning at a 34% clip and the RAPTOR model saw us as a .320 team going forward. Now we are winning at a 41% clip and RAPTOR sees us as a .390 team going forward. That may not seem like much of a jump but that is a 6 win difference in the big picture. I think it is safe to say the model has improved its view of Orlando. It is still not a huge believer.

Sadly, the play-in floor looks to have risen, now projected at 40 wins. We need to go 16-7 to close out the year to reach that... that is a 70% win rate. I'd love to see it but our best 23 game stretch was from Dec 7 - Jan 25 where we went 14-9 for a 61% win rate. Since the 6 game win streak we have a 46% win rate and are 13-15.

There are some reasons for optimism. Everyone will be rested and Paolo could have a resurgence. Isaac and Suggs are impact players and should get more court time. I'm not ready to rule out the play-in but the window is closing. I think we certainly win more than 39% of our games to end the season though.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 41%
Future Win Rate: 39%

10th seed record: 40- 42
Needed Win Rate: 70%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.7%

Some (projected) Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
1.0 Franz Wager
0.8 Cole Anthony
-0.4 Markelle Fultz
-0.6 Moritz Wagner
-0.9 Jalen Suggs

Top 5 Defense
2.6 Jalen Suggs
1.2 Wendell Carter Jr.
1.0 Franz Wagner
1.0 Moritz Wagner
0.8 Jonathan Isaac

Top 5 Total
2.1 Franz Wagner
1.7 Jalen Suggs
0.4 Moritz Wagner
0.3 Cole Anthony
-0.3 Wendell Carter Jr.

JoshuaPotter · Post #42 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:04 pm

We don't make it. I love your optimism.

Totally happy with a .500 record to close the season out. That means at worst we are toying with a .500 true team percentage since the injury plague left us.

AaronB · Post #43 » by **AaronB** » Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:59 pm

I am not a big believer of these advanced stats algorithms.

However, that Suggs is #10 in the NBA and #2 in the PG/SG category also passes the eye test.

Suggs is a keeper.

JoshuaPotter · Post #44 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Mon Feb 20, 2023 7:22 pm

AaronB wrote:I am not a big believer of these advanced stats algorithms.

However, that Suggs is #10 in the NBA and #2 in the PG/SG category also passes the eye test.

Suggs is a keeper.

I think there is a world where we become a really good defensive team. But I also think there is just as good a chance that we do not prioritize it.

basketballRob · Post #45 » by **basketballRob** » Mon Feb 20, 2023 7:53 pm

AaronB wrote:I am not a big believer of these advanced stats algorithms.

However, that Suggs is #10 in the NBA and #2 in the PG/SG category also passes the eye test.

Suggs is a keeper.

He's #9 now

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drsd · Post #46 » by **drsd** » Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:07 pm

JoshuaPotter wrote:We don't make it. I love your optimism.

Totally happy with a .500 record to close the season out. That means at worst we are toying with a .500 true team percentage since the injury plague left us.

A 12-11 close out takes the Magic to a 36-46 record. That is fantastic to me.

..

jezzerinho · Post #47 » by **jezzerinho** » Mon Feb 20, 2023 10:05 pm

I don't know why Raptor has such a following, I just find too many scores that don't really compute.

Maybe it's the cool name. They should call it RANDOM instead.

Post #48 » by **eyriq** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:19 am

jezzerinho wrote:I don't know why Raptor has such a following, I just find too many scores that don't really compute.

Maybe it's the cool name. They should call it RANDOM instead.

The methodology is legit. Eye test should compliment it as should other advanced stats. No silver bullet until they get an AI that can process video streams.

pepe1991 · Post #49 » by **pepe1991** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:31 am

jezzerinho wrote:I don't know why Raptor has such a following, I just find too many scores that don't really compute.

Maybe it's the cool name. They should call it RANDOM instead.

best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit :lol:

drsd · Post #50 » by **drsd** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:46 am

pepe1991 wrote:best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit

What ?!?!?!?

drsd · Post #51 » by **drsd** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:49 am

eyriq wrote:Current Win Rate: 41%
Future Win Rate: 39%

I don't understand why their model has the Magic wining less than 40% of their next 23 games. Odd model.

That's 9 wins. I have the Magic wining 12, which is a 52% win rate.

..

pepe1991 · Post #52 » by **pepe1991** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:02 am

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit

What ?!?!?!?

DPOY right there.

JoshuaPotter · Post #53 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:27 pm

drsd wrote:
eyriq wrote:Current Win Rate: 41%
Future Win Rate: 39%

I don't understand why their model has the Magic wining less than 40% of their next 23 games. Odd model.

That's 9 wins. I have the Magic wining 12, which is a 52% win rate.

..

It is interesting for sure.

I have us winning right around .500 so 12/11/10 wins are not out of the question.

Because I haven't seen the schedule. I imagine 1 or 2 of those games are back to back which might be a lose for us as we have been Abysmas at b2b even though we are such a young team.

jezzerinho · Post #54 » by **jezzerinho** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:55 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
jezzerinho wrote:I don't know why Raptor has such a following, I just find too many scores that don't really compute.

Maybe it's the cool name. They should call it RANDOM instead.

best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit

Yeah. It's weighting something weird that throws off the obvious and replaces it with the wacky.

EPM is a lot better, imo.

VFX · Post #55 » by **VFX** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:59 pm

jezzerinho wrote:I don't know why Raptor has such a following, I just find too many scores that don't really compute.

Maybe it's the cool name. They should call it RANDOM instead.

I mean, the RAPTOR rankings for the Magic players aren’t really inaccurate based on the eye test. I wouldn’t really say there aren’t wild anomalies on this roster.

Franz ranks as best offensively on the roster. Yeah, I buy that.

Suggs is the best defensively by a wide margin without Isaac logging a lot of minutes. I buy that too.

Not seeing Paolo in the top 5 for his rookie season makes sense with what I’ve seen for the last 10 games or so.

JoshuaPotter · Post #56 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:07 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
jezzerinho wrote:I don't know why Raptor has such a following, I just find too many scores that don't really compute.

Maybe it's the cool name. They should call it RANDOM instead.

I mean, the RAPTOR rankings for the Magic players aren’t really inaccurate based on the eye test. I wouldn’t really say there aren’t wild anomalies on this roster.

Franz ranks as best offensively on the roster. Yeah, I buy that.

Suggs is the best defensively by a wide margin without Isaac logging a lot of minutes. I buy that too.

Not seeing Paolo in the top 5 for his rookie season makes sense with what I’ve seen for the last 10 games or so.

No doubt Paolos numbers but more importantly the last 10 games or so have definitely been a "rookie wall". I have seen tons of people (that I have no idea who they are mind you) come out of the woodwork with their critique. Expecting far more then what even the usual number 1 pick typically gives. Which is already what he is doing mind you.

Long story short, the raptor doesn't like Paolo long term. Well see if he improves year 2 - 3 to develop into something more.

Meanwhile the raptor absolutely is gushing at Franz. Which passes the eye test. For a while there Franz was one of the best 4th quarter players in the league. Hopefully for Paolo and Franz they get lots of much needed rest and come out and return to form.

Post #57 » by **Knightro** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:20 pm

pepe1991 wrote:best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit

It's not that crazy if you actually stop and look at it.

Giannis is having a down year compared to his own previously insane MVP standards.

His TS% is .595, which is the lowest it's been since he was 21 years old and not significantly above the league average (.580) like it usually is. It was .631 the previous four seasons combined.

His assists are also down while his turnovers are up. His defensive metrics, likely due to his massive offensive workload, are also slightly down from previous years too.

I'm not suggesting in any way, shape or form that Giannis isn't one the best players on the planet, but statistically he's a clear cut worse this year than he has been over the last 6-7 years.

JoshuaPotter · Post #58 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:47 pm

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit

It's not that crazy if you actually stop and look at it.

Giannis is having a down year compared to his own previously insane MVP standards.

His TS% is .595, which is the lowest it's been since he was 21 years old and not significantly above the league average (.580) like it usually is. It was .631 the previous four seasons combined.

His assists are also down while his turnovers are up. His defensive metrics, likely due to his massive offensive workload, are also slightly down from previous years too.

I'm not suggesting in any way, shape or form that Giannis isn't one the best players on the planet, but statistically he's a clear cut worse this year than he has been over the last 6-7 years.

How dare you infer that someone can have a down year. That's like suggesting Jordan could retire in his prime!

basketballRob · Post #59 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:02 pm

Giannis is 10th in Raptor

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pepe1991 · Post #60 » by **pepe1991** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:07 pm

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:best basketball player on the planet Earth today ( Giannis) didn't crack top 20 on offense nor defense . Sounds legit

It's not that crazy if you actually stop and look at it.

Giannis is having a down year compared to his own previously insane MVP standards.

His TS% is .595, which is the lowest it's been since he was 21 years old and not significantly above the league average (.580) like it usually is. It was .631 the previous four seasons combined.

His assists are also down while his turnovers are up. His defensive metrics, likely due to his massive offensive workload, are also slightly down from previous years too.

I'm not suggesting in any way, shape or form that Giannis isn't one the best players on the planet, but statistically he's a clear cut worse this year than he has been over the last 6-7 years.

32 ppg
12 rpg
5,4 apg
0,8 bpg
0,8 spg

59,5% TS

7,9 BPM

41-17 team where second best player missed 41 out of 58 games. In times when 3 rotation players are 36 years old ( Hill, Ingles & Wes Matthews).

What would Bucks record look without him? 25-57? Without him and Middelton out half of season 18 wins at most? Their roster is flat out awful outside of Giannis/ Middelton/Jrue & Lopez.

You can tell me yes, he is having season that isn't super -uber-goat-category- level good as previous ones.
But what you can't tell me, that there is data that thinks that those players are better than him offense:
Jalen Brunson
Jimmy Butler
Isaiah Joe
Lauri Markannen
Desmond Bane
Zion
Siakam

or on defense:
Caruso
Suggs
Jokic
Derrick White
Dennis Smith Jr

For crying out loud : player A total raptor 5,6 , player B total raptor 5,7

Player A is Caruso, player B is Giannis. How laughable is that?