The Jalen Suggs Thread

[pepe1991]

I don't know how much stock any of you put into 538's RAPTOR formula, but according to that Jalen Suggs is most impactful defender on the team (+1.9 DEF RAPTOR) and the second most impactful player on the roster overall behind Franz.

(not counting Isaac since his sample size is so small)

One of my favorite metrics. Also, that is a shocking development. I'm so amped about Suggs right now.

Why would you put so much stock in raptor data? It's one of most currupted ,missleading advance stats out there.

Every data that claims Luke Kornett is 5th best defender in nba should be delited from existence.

Also every data that claims Paolo Banchero, among 350 players, isn't even in top 250 should be delited from existence.


RAPTOR data is such a awkward thing and gives such an illogical numbers that it's hilarious.

This is list of top 5 best nba defenders, according to Raptor data:
Delon Whrite
Alex Caruso
Davis
Thybulle
Luke Kornett

4 out of 5 are nba backups. 2 of 5 are basically fringe bench bums

Than you flip sides and figure that those guys are top 100 worst: Ayton, Siakam, Jalen Brunson, Klay Thompson, PJ Tucker, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Grant ?


Offensive RAPTOR gets even more offensive.
Those are players with higher off rating than Giannis ( ranked 39th) :
Aaron Gordon, Isaiah Joe, Beal ,Vleet, Alec Burks, Jordan Clarkson,


And those are some of the names better than Jaylen Brown ( ranked 102th):
Cole Anthony, Hart, Tobbias Harris, Cameroon Payne, Mo f**** Bamba, Daniel Gafford, Sam Hauser ( ) , Bogdan Bogdanovic....

Or Adebayo ( who averages 21 ppg) who hardly menaged to crack top 200 ( 198th) and is allstar.


It's just... jumbled mess of numbers that don't reflect well what's happening on the floor

If you do advanced stats metrics you should test them. If your results claim Luke Kornett, Garrison Mathews, Jordan Goodwin, NAW, Isaiah Joe are far superior to Sabonis, Markannen, Zion, Randle, Edwards than probably something is off in your calculations.

[Knightro]

Why would you put so much stock in raptor data? It's one of most currupted ,missleading advance stats out there.

Every data that claims Luke Kornett is 5th best defender in nba should be delited from existence.

Also every data that claims Paolo Banchero, among 350 players, isn't even in top 250 should be delited from existence.


RAPTOR data is such a awkward thing and gives such an illogical numbers that it's hilarious.

This is list of top 5 best nba defenders, according to Raptor data:
Delon Whrite
Alex Caruso
Davis
Thybulle
Luke Kornett

4 out of 5 are nba backups. 2 of 5 are basically fringe bench bums

Than you flip sides and figure that those guys are top 100 worst: Ayton, Siakam, Jalen Brunson, Klay Thompson, PJ Tucker, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Grant ?


Offensive RAPTOR gets even more offensive.
Those are players with higher off rating than Giannis ( ranked 39th) :
Aaron Gordon, Isaiah Joe, Beal ,Vleet, Alec Burks, Jordan Clarkson,


And those are some of the names better than Jaylen Brown ( ranked 102th):
Cole Anthony, Hart, Tobbias Harris, Cameroon Payne, Mo f**** Bamba, Daniel Gafford, Sam Hauser ( ) , Bogdan Bogdanovic....

Or Adebayo ( who averages 21 ppg) who hardly menaged to crack top 200 ( 198th) and is allstar.


It's just... jumbled mess of numbers that don't reflect well what's happening on the floor

If you do advanced stats metrics you should test them. If your results claim Luke Kornett, Garrison Mathews, Jordan Goodwin, NAW, Isaiah Joe are far superior to Sabonis, Markannen, Zion, Randle, Edwards than probably something is off in your calculations.

I think you’re being a little disingenuous by lowering the minimum minutes played threshold on the RAPTOR site to the point where it brings a whole bunch of fringe rotation guys and guys who have missed significant time with injuries into the mix.

When you go on the RAPTOR site, the minimum suggested minutes threshold is 677 minutes. If you leave it there, that eliminates quite a few of the names you mentioned right off the bat.

It stands to reason that every player you mentioned who doesn’t have the minimum minutes played like Kornet and many others would see their metrics decline dramatically if they were moved into a heavier minute role against better competition, does it not?

[pepe1991]

Why would you put so much stock in raptor data? It's one of most currupted ,missleading advance stats out there.

Every data that claims Luke Kornett is 5th best defender in nba should be delited from existence.

Also every data that claims Paolo Banchero, among 350 players, isn't even in top 250 should be delited from existence.


RAPTOR data is such a awkward thing and gives such an illogical numbers that it's hilarious.

This is list of top 5 best nba defenders, according to Raptor data:
Delon Whrite
Alex Caruso
Davis
Thybulle
Luke Kornett

4 out of 5 are nba backups. 2 of 5 are basically fringe bench bums

Than you flip sides and figure that those guys are top 100 worst: Ayton, Siakam, Jalen Brunson, Klay Thompson, PJ Tucker, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Grant ?


Offensive RAPTOR gets even more offensive.
Those are players with higher off rating than Giannis ( ranked 39th) :
Aaron Gordon, Isaiah Joe, Beal ,Vleet, Alec Burks, Jordan Clarkson,


And those are some of the names better than Jaylen Brown ( ranked 102th):
Cole Anthony, Hart, Tobbias Harris, Cameroon Payne, Mo f**** Bamba, Daniel Gafford, Sam Hauser ( ) , Bogdan Bogdanovic....

Or Adebayo ( who averages 21 ppg) who hardly menaged to crack top 200 ( 198th) and is allstar.


It's just... jumbled mess of numbers that don't reflect well what's happening on the floor

If you do advanced stats metrics you should test them. If your results claim Luke Kornett, Garrison Mathews, Jordan Goodwin, NAW, Isaiah Joe are far superior to Sabonis, Markannen, Zion, Randle, Edwards than probably something is off in your calculations.

I think you’re being a little disingenuous by lowering the minimum minutes played threshold on the RAPTOR site to the point where it brings a whole bunch of fringe rotation guys and guys who have missed significant time with injuries into the mix.

When you go on the RAPTOR site, the minimum suggested minutes threshold is 677 minutes. If you leave it there, that eliminates quite a few of the names you mentioned right off the bat.

It stands to reason that every player you mentioned who doesn’t have the minimum minutes played like Kornet and many others would see their metrics decline dramatically if they were moved into a heavier minute role against better competition, does it not?

I used at least 400 min played. Regardless, if you even move to 500 you have Caruso as DPOY ( 1077 min played).

Thybulle, Kornett,Wright are all 450+ min played- players

Hell, i'll just show picture of how dumb this is



In what world Nikola Jokic is DPOY candidate? In what world 5 foot 8 Valverado is better defender than Giannis?


It's such a collosal mess that i find ridicilous to ever watch raptor data.

At least 950 min played outrage:
Sticking to mindblowing stupidity players better by DEF raptor than Jimmy Butler : ( brace yourself for outrage):
Garland, Avdija, Franz Wagner, Tre Jones, Kylian Hayes, Lauri Markannen, TJ McConnel, Tim Hardaway jr, Immanuel Quickley,Tari Eason , Jusuf Nurkić, Segun, Cedi Osman

Better than Jayson Tatum:

Reggie Jackson, James Harden, Lebron James, Santi Aldama, Derozan, Edwards, Kevin Porter Jr, Keegan Murray, Ja Morant, Caris Levert

Current DPOY Marcus Smart ranked - 73rd


By raptor data Kessler should be easiest Rookie of a year winner since Lebron James.
By raptor data Pelicans worst player is Velenciunas, Ingram shouldn't be starter, McCullum could join him on bench because Alvarado is DPOY candidate.
By Raptor data best guard in nba after Luka, Curry and Lillard is Alex Caruso...


Graphic presentation what RAPTOR data means

[SOUL]

maybe it's not meant be as a cumulative better player sort of thing, but as most effective in their roles?

like a lot of them are in those roles because that's what they can handle, or maybe some of those guys deserve a bigger uptick in minutes/responsibilities next year if they're that effective.

[pepe1991]

maybe it's not meant be as a cumulative better player sort of thing, but as most effective in their roles?

like a lot of them are in those roles because that's what they can handle, or maybe some of those guys deserve a bigger uptick in minutes/responsibilities next year if they're that effective.

or guy who created it , isn't as good as he thinks he is ? Nate Silver (creator) has also very poor history of awful soccer predictions.

During 2020 season he used MLS league to predict winner. 10 of his 12 favorites didn't qualify or were eliminated in first round.

For world cup soccer in 2014 he gave Brazil 65% chance at beating Germany. They lost 7-1.

At world cup 2018 his predictions were: Brazil winning, Spain second, Germany third, France fourth. Reality: France won, Croatia second, Belgium third , England 4th. So he 100% missed everything.

2022 world cup, same story. Brazil heavy favorite to win it all. Once again, fiasco.


As for outrageus nba predictions for this season:
OKC to win 24 games ( already passed it)
Bucks to be lower tear favorite to win than Raptors.
Cavs to hardly reach .500 record
Celtics to be complete lock for finals.
Hawks to win 50 games


....7% of the time, you’ll find that 538 is right 100% of the time.

[jezzerinho]

I find Raptor a bit weird. The rankings just don't really pass the smell test. Always too many weird outlier players cropping up.

EPM is, for me, the best out there I've looked at. The DRIP one was quite interesting too, iirc, but I only look at EPM now. They'll all have their quirks, but Raptor is just way too off-base to be reliable, imo.

[eyriq]

I don't know how much stock any of you put into 538's RAPTOR formula, but according to that Jalen Suggs is most impactful defender on the team (+1.9 DEF RAPTOR) and the second most impactful player on the roster overall behind Franz.

(not counting Isaac since his sample size is so small)

One of my favorite metrics. Also, that is a shocking development. I'm so amped about Suggs right now.

Why would you put so much stock in raptor data? It's one of most currupted ,missleading advance stats out there.

Every data that claims Luke Kornett is 5th best defender in nba should be delited from existence.

Also every data that claims Paolo Banchero, among 350 players, isn't even in top 250 should be delited from existence.


RAPTOR data is such a awkward thing and gives such an illogical numbers that it's hilarious.

This is list of top 5 best nba defenders, according to Raptor data:
Delon Whrite
Alex Caruso
Davis
Thybulle
Luke Kornett

4 out of 5 are nba backups. 2 of 5 are basically fringe bench bums

Than you flip sides and figure that those guys are top 100 worst: Ayton, Siakam, Jalen Brunson, Klay Thompson, PJ Tucker, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Grant ?


Offensive RAPTOR gets even more offensive.
Those are players with higher off rating than Giannis ( ranked 39th) :
Aaron Gordon, Isaiah Joe, Beal ,Vleet, Alec Burks, Jordan Clarkson,


And those are some of the names better than Jaylen Brown ( ranked 102th):
Cole Anthony, Hart, Tobbias Harris, Cameroon Payne, Mo f**** Bamba, Daniel Gafford, Sam Hauser ( ) , Bogdan Bogdanovic....

Or Adebayo ( who averages 21 ppg) who hardly menaged to crack top 200 ( 198th) and is allstar.


It's just... jumbled mess of numbers that don't reflect well what's happening on the floor

If you do advanced stats metrics you should test them. If your results claim Luke Kornett, Garrison Mathews, Jordan Goodwin, NAW, Isaiah Joe are far superior to Sabonis, Markannen, Zion, Randle, Edwards than probably something is off in your calculations.

I asked ChatGPT to reply to your post I agree with our AI overlord

I understand your concerns about RAPTOR and its accuracy in ranking players. However, it's important to note that RAPTOR is just one metric among many and should not be used as the sole determinant of a player's value. Additionally, every statistical model is subject to certain limitations and biases, and it's important to use multiple sources of information when evaluating player performance. It's also important to keep in mind that RAPTOR is meant to be used in combination with other data and analysis, not as a standalone measure of player ability. In conclusion, while RAPTOR is a useful tool for understanding player impact, it's important to approach it with a critical eye and use it in conjunction with other data and analysis.

Here are some of the pros of using RAPTOR as a player metric in the NBA:

1. Comprehensive: RAPTOR aims to provide a comprehensive picture of a player's overall value to their team, both offensively and defensively.

2. Advanced Statistics: RAPTOR combines various other advanced stats such as player impact on team performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. to provide a more nuanced view of a player's contribution to their team.

3. Easy to understand: RAPTOR provides an easy-to-understand single number to evaluate a player's performance, making it accessible to fans and analysts alike.

4. Adjusts for team and player context: RAPTOR adjusts for the impact of a player's team and other players on the court, providing a more accurate representation of individual player impact.

5. Consistent measurement: RAPTOR provides a consistent measurement of player performance over the course of a season, making it easier to compare players and track trends.

6. Informs decision-making: RAPTOR can be used by teams, analysts, and fans to inform decision-making regarding player evaluation, roster construction, and game strategy.

7. Combines multiple data sources: RAPTOR combines multiple data sources to provide a more accurate picture of player performance.

[Skybox]

The obsession with advanced statistical analysis has opened the door to a lot of obscure, complex, “smartest guy in the room” gurus that may or may not reflect any actual, reliable, applicable, consistent value. Moneyball is one of my favorite books & movies but sometimes “think different”, “reframe the question”, and my most cringe-worthy “disrupt…” are just useless overthinking crap.

Even simple clear stuff like “Per 36” is generally terribly misleading…there’s a reason your HOF guy is only playing 9 mins of garbage time

When you watch Brook Lopez box out 3 guys so Giannis can gather and go, that’s something that can’t be easily quantified, but can win games.

[eyriq]

The obsession with advanced statistical analysis has opened the door to a lot of obscure, complex, “smartest guy in the room” gurus that may or may not reflect any actual, reliable, applicable, consistent value. Moneyball is one of my favorite books & movies but sometimes “think different”, “reframe the question”, and my most cringe-worthy “disrupt…” are just useless overthinking crap.

Even simple clear stuff like “Per 36” is generally terribly misleading…there’s a reason your HOF guy is only playing 9 mins of garbage time

When you watch Brook Lopez box out 3 guys so Giannis can gather and go, that’s something that can’t be easily quantified, but can win games.

Eh, maybe some people that create data products can come off as wanna be gurus but advanced metrics aren't about trying to be the smartest guy in the room, they are about trying to use all available tools to make better decisions. Scouting, watching game film, etc aren't going anywhere.

[drsd]

RAPTOR data is such a awkward thing and gives such an illogical numbers that it's hilarious.

This is list of top 5 best nba defenders, according to Raptor data:
Delon Whrite
Alex Caruso
Davis
Thybulle
Luke Kornett

4 out of 5 are nba backups. 2 of 5 are basically fringe bench bums.

Alex Caruso might be the best defender in the NBA. Maybe he is your 1 of 5.

..

[KillMonger]

if he ever figures out the offensive side of the ball he can be a really effective player....he has some real flaws to his game, some glaring but with his type of temperament you know he will attack his weaknesses to try and turn it into his strengths....we(front office) have to be a bit more patient with him as he's developing a bit more slowly than others....good thing is that even though the progress is slow there is still progress...he's having more success shooting the ball in certain situations and his good performances are becoming more frequent and his bad less so....but one thing that is constant is the motor and passion that he plays the game with...

For me i want to see his development through because i have a feeling he can reach his potential WITH us instead of somewhere else like Victor....we gave up too soon on vic imo....we gave mo bamba 5 seasons....AG 7 seasons.....Suggs is in year 2....patience

[pepe1991]

One of my favorite metrics. Also, that is a shocking development. I'm so amped about Suggs right now.

Why would you put so much stock in raptor data? It's one of most currupted ,missleading advance stats out there.

Every data that claims Luke Kornett is 5th best defender in nba should be delited from existence.

Also every data that claims Paolo Banchero, among 350 players, isn't even in top 250 should be delited from existence.


RAPTOR data is such a awkward thing and gives such an illogical numbers that it's hilarious.

This is list of top 5 best nba defenders, according to Raptor data:
Delon Whrite
Alex Caruso
Davis
Thybulle
Luke Kornett

4 out of 5 are nba backups. 2 of 5 are basically fringe bench bums

Than you flip sides and figure that those guys are top 100 worst: Ayton, Siakam, Jalen Brunson, Klay Thompson, PJ Tucker, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Grant ?


Offensive RAPTOR gets even more offensive.
Those are players with higher off rating than Giannis ( ranked 39th) :
Aaron Gordon, Isaiah Joe, Beal ,Vleet, Alec Burks, Jordan Clarkson,


And those are some of the names better than Jaylen Brown ( ranked 102th):
Cole Anthony, Hart, Tobbias Harris, Cameroon Payne, Mo f**** Bamba, Daniel Gafford, Sam Hauser ( ) , Bogdan Bogdanovic....

Or Adebayo ( who averages 21 ppg) who hardly menaged to crack top 200 ( 198th) and is allstar.


It's just... jumbled mess of numbers that don't reflect well what's happening on the floor

If you do advanced stats metrics you should test them. If your results claim Luke Kornett, Garrison Mathews, Jordan Goodwin, NAW, Isaiah Joe are far superior to Sabonis, Markannen, Zion, Randle, Edwards than probably something is off in your calculations.

I asked ChatGPT to reply to your post I agree with our AI overlord

I understand your concerns about RAPTOR and its accuracy in ranking players. However, it's important to note that RAPTOR is just one metric among many and should not be used as the sole determinant of a player's value. Additionally, every statistical model is subject to certain limitations and biases, and it's important to use multiple sources of information when evaluating player performance. It's also important to keep in mind that RAPTOR is meant to be used in combination with other data and analysis, not as a standalone measure of player ability. In conclusion, while RAPTOR is a useful tool for understanding player impact, it's important to approach it with a critical eye and use it in conjunction with other data and analysis.

Here are some of the pros of using RAPTOR as a player metric in the NBA:

1. Comprehensive: RAPTOR aims to provide a comprehensive picture of a player's overall value to their team, both offensively and defensively.

2. Advanced Statistics: RAPTOR combines various other advanced stats such as player impact on team performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. to provide a more nuanced view of a player's contribution to their team.

3. Easy to understand: RAPTOR provides an easy-to-understand single number to evaluate a player's performance, making it accessible to fans and analysts alike.

4. Adjusts for team and player context: RAPTOR adjusts for the impact of a player's team and other players on the court, providing a more accurate representation of individual player impact.

5. Consistent measurement: RAPTOR provides a consistent measurement of player performance over the course of a season, making it easier to compare players and track trends.

6. Informs decision-making: RAPTOR can be used by teams, analysts, and fans to inform decision-making regarding player evaluation, roster construction, and game strategy.

7. Combines multiple data sources: RAPTOR combines multiple data sources to provide a more accurate picture of player performance.

My problem with 538 in general boils down to very simplistic thing: if your metric is so advance how come they somehow menage to miss everything and why betting odds don't support your claims.

At the end of a day, tracking money & odds are always best indicator of future outcomes.

2022- Championship team had 4th best odds
2021- championship team had second best odds
2020--- second best odds
2019-5th best
2018-best odds
2017-best odds
2016-best odds
2015-- 8th best
2014- 6th best
2013- best
2012-best
2011- 7th best
2010- best

Diviations happen, but nothing major . Betting houses rule projections way more and way more accurate than sports analytics.. mostly because they... have best people to set odds.

[Skybox]

The obsession with advanced statistical analysis has opened the door to a lot of obscure, complex, “smartest guy in the room” gurus that may or may not reflect any actual, reliable, applicable, consistent value. Moneyball is one of my favorite books & movies but sometimes “think different”, “reframe the question”, and my most cringe-worthy “disrupt…” are just useless overthinking crap.

Even simple clear stuff like “Per 36” is generally terribly misleading…there’s a reason your HOF guy is only playing 9 mins of garbage time

When you watch Brook Lopez box out 3 guys so Giannis can gather and go, that’s something that can’t be easily quantified, but can win games.

Eh, maybe some people that create data products can come off as wanna be gurus but advanced metrics aren't about trying to be the smartest guy in the room, they are about trying to use all available tools to make better decisions. Scouting, watching game film, etc aren't going anywhere.

No doubt…statistical analysis has evolved and been amazingly useful. But, just like political polls and campaigning, you need to look at them with a critical eye and hope for discoveries, rather than just supporting your position. It’s well-acknowledged that statistics, in any field, can be manipulated to serve a cause…sort of like when a drug company funds studies that inevitably support their hopes. Bamba, while backing up an All-Star was often crowned “Per 36” King

[pepe1991]

The obsession with advanced statistical analysis has opened the door to a lot of obscure, complex, “smartest guy in the room” gurus that may or may not reflect any actual, reliable, applicable, consistent value. Moneyball is one of my favorite books & movies but sometimes “think different”, “reframe the question”, and my most cringe-worthy “disrupt…” are just useless overthinking crap.

Even simple clear stuff like “Per 36” is generally terribly misleading…there’s a reason your HOF guy is only playing 9 mins of garbage time

When you watch Brook Lopez box out 3 guys so Giannis can gather and go, that’s something that can’t be easily quantified, but can win games.

Eh, maybe some people that create data products can come off as wanna be gurus but advanced metrics aren't about trying to be the smartest guy in the room, they are about trying to use all available tools to make better decisions. Scouting, watching game film, etc aren't going anywhere.

No doubt…statistical analysis has evolved and been amazingly useful. But, just like political polls and campaigning, you need to look at them with a critical eye and hope for discoveries, rather than just supporting your position. It’s well-acknowledged that statistics, in any field, can be manipulated to serve a cause…sort of like when a drug company funds studies that inevitably support their hopes. Bamba, while backing up an All-Star was often crowned “Per 36” King

i was told, on multiple occasions ,that Bamba will average 20-14-4 if he is given 30 min

[VFX]

Why even have a debate on analytics?

Suggs is clearly the best defensive player on the floor most nights. Probably until Isaac starts playing real minutes again, he will continue to be the best defender on the roster.

[Skybox]

Why even have a debate on analytics?

Suggs is clearly the best defensive player on the floor most nights. Probably until Isaac starts playing real minutes again, he will continue to be the best defender on the roster.

I love Suggs' defense. He's rock solid and might someday be All-Defensive team...Isaac, IMO, at his best, is actually aggressively effective - like his defense is downright offense. So disruptive you have to plan around it...that's very unusual for even really exceptional defenders. For all of our shooting and floor spreading questions, if Isaac heals up and Suggs generates ENOUGH offense to earn minutes, we've got a hell of a foundation (not even mentioning our two-maybe three-best players).

I'm perfectly comfortable with a Simons (or even try Bones) next to a dog like Suggs...but, if they ain't going to match the defensive intensity, they had better be scoring and opening things up to blow open games to the point defense becomes irrelevant

*I'm really starting to warm up to Cole sticking around in that role, likely off the bench. He's playing a lot smarter.

[jonbob17]

Offensive RAPTOR gets even more offensive.
Those are players with higher off rating than Giannis ( ranked 39th) :
Aaron Gordon, Isaiah Joe, Beal ,Vleet, Alec Burks, Jordan Clarkson,

Isaiah Joe and Burks would be nice targets in the offseason.

[jonbob17]

The obsession with advanced statistical analysis has opened the door to a lot of obscure, complex, “smartest guy in the room” gurus that may or may not reflect any actual, reliable, applicable, consistent value. Moneyball is one of my favorite books & movies but sometimes “think different”, “reframe the question”, and my most cringe-worthy “disrupt…” are just useless overthinking crap.

Even simple clear stuff like “Per 36” is generally terribly misleading…there’s a reason your HOF guy is only playing 9 mins of garbage time

When you watch Brook Lopez box out 3 guys so Giannis can gather and go, that’s something that can’t be easily quantified, but can win games.

That's kind of the thing these mathematicians are trying to figure out how to do...quantify intangible data. They are using fixed camera of games to turn into data.

[drsd]

Why even have a debate on analytics?

Suggs is clearly the best defensive player on the floor most nights. Probably until Isaac starts playing real minutes again, he will continue to be the best defender on the roster.

Challenge accepted.

By "defensive rating", Orlando's best defender is Bol and second best is Bamba: LINK: proving your point

..

[zaymon]

To anyone wanting to use Suggs as a throw in to the trade, just **** *** please.