Petre1978 wrote:Def Swami wrote:Def Swami wrote:I think I'd lean Banchero. Holmgren is a really skilled player. But his frame and weight scare the hell out of me. And I'll admit, I'm not sure how rational or irrational that feeling is. But I can't seem to shake it when I watch him play.
Before, I saw it as a 4 man race between Banchero, Holmgren, Smith, and Ivey. But, I think Mathurin, Davis, and Murray are making strong arguments to inject themselves into the conversation. This is a good draft for us.
Update, I changed my mind for the 4th time. I'd take Holmgren. It'll be a project. But I'd take the upside.
Why do you take Holmgren now?
You see a game like last night and you see where the upside is. Banchero is going to be good. I don't doubt it. Holmgren's timing and defensive instincts are ahead of his age. I think if he can be a generational defender and rim protector with some semblance of an offensive game or ability to stretch the floor, I think that player will ultimately hold more value than an off the bounce scorer like Banchero? You see it with Mobley this year (albeit, I think Mobley is 20 lbs heavier and a little more fluid than Holmgren). We've played with Bamba for 4 seasons and he still doesn't have a grasp of how to use his length and size to his advantage on either end of the floor. And while Holmgren is light in weight, he has at least figured out timing, positioning, and execution to be a major factor on the defensive end. If he exudes that kind of IQ on the offensive end over time, which I think he will, he'll be the best player in the draft. It's really the weight thing that gets me. Can he add enough weight to protect himself long term? Or does it matter? I don't have a great answer on that. But, if you're purely going for upside, I think Holmgren makes sense.
I'll probably flip back and forth on this as the season goes. I actually like 5 or 6 guys in this draft and would be happy with any of them.