Cole World: Orlando Magic Select Cole Anthony at #15

[Skybox]

Wow...now that he's gone, DJ finally getting some love on this board

[Blue_and_Whte]

https://youtu.be/TkvqePtzx5A?t=1022

Cole Anthony on T. Ross's podcast (it should autoplay to where Cole comes on), light stuff but they just talk about getting to the league, embarrassing stories (Ross talks about when Bamba got fined in that December game, overslept practice), Cole excited to get to work. Said he was 70% when he got back from his injury and played below the rim a lot but is healthy now.

I cringed at the Bamba stories lol.

Yeah me too. They were bad. Like an effing giant baby man, wtf. Rubbing his back?? WTF dude.

[VFX]

DJ was a serviceable backup that kept Fultz honest and gave Clifford a reliable vet. He isn’t needed now that we drafted a piece for the future and this team is likely missing the playoffs. DJ deserves a shot at a ring and this might be his last opportunity.

Vet DJ is better than rookie Anthony now....

However, thats not really the point. Anthony has a higher upside and we need him to reach his full potential. This is coming from someone that wasn’t high on him as a draft prospect. The sooner we move on from win-now vets and start moving toward youth/development the better.

[fendilim]

Not sure if posted already but this gives me hope

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/25/cole-anthony-scouting-report-2/


His shot attempts are broken down and showed nice percentages.

As mentioned, he usually settles for step back shots. Which is become a trend now with Harden leading the way. And college kids imitating those moves. I think he can improve on those, either get a stronger core or basically getting rid of it.

His unguarded catch and shoot % is quite good and also has decent pull up game.

[Knightro]

Anthony’s development is really going to be fascinating to watch.

To be perfectly frank, there was just very little in his statistical profile from his one college season that would indicate that he’s likely to have a lot of NBA success. He was a streaky shooter. He was a really poor finisher. He was a bad *and* unwilling passer. He was a mixed bag defensively. His shot selection was undeniably terrible.

That said...

We all watched the NBA the last few years and in the bubble and it is beyond obvious that perimeter players who can score from all three levels are king. Guys like Murray, Mitchell, Lillard, etc. Players who can put immediate pressure on the defense no matter where on the floor they touch the ball on a given possession.

Cole Anthony *was* that exact player in high school. He was that player in AAU ball. He was that player in the EYBL. He was that player on the all-star circuit. His explosiveness was more readily apparent. His willingness to pass was more readily apparent. He was the guy.

His UNC experience was a unequivocal failure. There’s no question about that. Obviously a good chunk of that failure falls at his feet. The million dollar question is how much of it?

If the answer is “all of it”, then he’s probably going to be a bust.

If the answer is “not very much of it”, then the Magic might have found something here.

This could certainly be me drinking the kool-aid, but I’m just having a difficult time accepting that *everything* that went wrong at UNC was his fault given what we know about that situation.

Ultimately, at the end of the day the Magic took the biggest swing they could for arguably the first time in Weltman and Hammond’s tenure. It may not work, and the odds say it’s really not likely to work, but they’re gambling on pedigree and a long track record of success before this past year.

I’m excited to see it play out.

[drsd]

DJ was a serviceable backup that kept Fultz honest and gave Clifford a reliable vet. He isn’t needed now that we drafted a piece for the future and this team is likely missing the playoffs. DJ deserves a shot at a ring and this might be his last opportunity.

Vet DJ is better than rookie Anthony now....

However, thats not really the point. Anthony has a higher upside and we need him to reach his full potential. This is coming from someone that wasn’t high on him as a draft prospect. The sooner we move on from win-now vets and start moving toward youth/development the better.

I agree. And Carter-Williams can be "bak-up Augustin" for a year until Anthony becomes a serviceable backup.

My fears started when I realised that if Fultz goes down to injury, then what? Before the Magic had "starter Augustin". Now? Can you imagine Carter-Williams starting ?!?!?


..

[Ducklett]

Anthony’s development is really going to be fascinating to watch.

To be perfectly frank, there was just very little in his statistical profile from his one college season that would indicate that he’s likely to have a lot of NBA success. He was a streaky shooter. He was a really poor finisher. He was a bad *and* unwilling passer. He was a mixed bag defensively. His shot selection was undeniably terrible.

That said...

We all watched the NBA the last few years and in the bubble and it is beyond obvious that perimeter players who can score from all three levels are king. Guys like Murray, Mitchell, Lillard, etc. Players who can put immediate pressure on the defense no matter where on the floor they touch the ball on a given possession.

Cole Anthony *was* that exact player in high school. He was that player in AAU ball. He was that player in the EYBL. He was that player on the all-star circuit. His explosiveness was more readily apparent. His willingness to pass was more readily apparent. He was the guy.

His UNC experience was a unequivocal failure. There’s no question about that. Obviously a good chunk of that failure falls at his feet. The million dollar question is how much of it?

If the answer is “all of it”, then he’s probably going to be a bust.

If the answer is “not very much of it”, then the Magic might have found something here.

This could certainly be me drinking the kool-aid, but I’m just having a difficult time accepting that *everything* that went wrong at UNC was his fault given what we know about that situation.

Ultimately, at the end of the day the Magic took the biggest swing they could for arguably the first time in Weltman and Hammond’s tenure. It may not work, and the odds say it’s really not likely to work, but they’re gambling on pedigree and a long track record of success before this past year.

I’m excited to see it play out.

I will say that based on his scouting report via thestepien no one on his UNC team had a positive net rating. That is pretty nuts.

[Last Guardian]

DJ was a serviceable backup that kept Fultz honest and gave Clifford a reliable vet. He isn’t needed now that we drafted a piece for the future and this team is likely missing the playoffs. DJ deserves a shot at a ring and this might be his last opportunity.

Vet DJ is better than rookie Anthony now....

However, thats not really the point. Anthony has a higher upside and we need him to reach his full potential. This is coming from someone that wasn’t high on him as a draft prospect. The sooner we move on from win-now vets and start moving toward youth/development the better.

I agree. And Carter-Williams can be "bak-up Augustin" for a year until Anthony becomes a serviceable backup.

My fears started when I realised that if Fultz goes down to injury, then what? Before the Magic had "starter Augustin". Now? Can you imagine Carter-Williams starting ?!?!?


..

MCW has been a starting PG on teams more often than DJ and those teams have been better or similar to the Magic. A lot on offense depends on who he is playing with, but defensively words cannot describe how much better he is. Infinite is the only word I can come up with. I’d take MCW any day over DJ

[pepe1991]

DJ was a serviceable backup that kept Fultz honest and gave Clifford a reliable vet. He isn’t needed now that we drafted a piece for the future and this team is likely missing the playoffs. DJ deserves a shot at a ring and this might be his last opportunity.

Vet DJ is better than rookie Anthony now....

However, thats not really the point. Anthony has a higher upside and we need him to reach his full potential. This is coming from someone that wasn’t high on him as a draft prospect. The sooner we move on from win-now vets and start moving toward youth/development the better.

I agree. And Carter-Williams can be "bak-up Augustin" for a year until Anthony becomes a serviceable backup.

My fears started when I realised that if Fultz goes down to injury, then what? Before the Magic had "starter Augustin". Now? Can you imagine Carter-Williams starting ?!?!?


..

MCW has been a starting PG on teams more often than DJ and those teams have been better or similar to the Magic. A lot on offense depends on who he is playing with, but defensively words cannot describe how much better he is. Infinite is the only word I can come up with. I’d take MCW any day over DJ

This is factually- false
MCW was starter for 3 and half years.
This are teams that started him:
19-63 76ers
18-64 76ers
33-49 Bucks (part time starter)

emergency starter on Bulls ( 19 games out of 45), team that won 41 games.

That's it.


Main reason why guy was ROY and traded year later is because Hinkie could saw through counting stats and see player that doesn't have upside nor talnet for team sucess.
He is best used as "boring" ball chaser type defender that will be there to annoy lead ballhandler for 10 min and go to bench, because his true shooting percentage and efficiency in career has been dog**** up until last year when he was for his measurments -elite. For rest of a league- still below average.
MCW is definition of stop-gap player. 10-14 mpg. Let him pick some tehniqual, start some crap, gets under somebody skin. And go back to bench. Not most usless role, but pretty much being Reggie Evans of guards. There to annoy. You pay him to take cheap shot at opponents starter, tell he is good boy and send him to bench for rest of a night.

[drsd]

MCW has been a starting PG on teams more often than DJ and those teams have been better or similar to the Magic. A lot on offense depends on who he is playing with, but defensively words cannot describe how much better he is. Infinite is the only word I can come up with. I’d take MCW any day over DJ

Augustin vs. Carter-Williams

Carter-Williams was only a primary starter his first two year. Still, Augustin has only had three years were he was the primary starter. Frankly neither is a full-time starter, but as a cagy vet, Augustin has emergency-starter capacity. Carter-Williams cannot start on a team that lacks shooting from range; Orlando lacks this.


In conclusion: please let Fultz stay healthy this season !

..

[drsd]

MCW is definition of stop-gap player. 10-14 mpg. Let him pick some tehniqual, start some crap, gets under somebody skin.

Carter-WIlliams is a great 3rd string PG because of these exact qualities. He is a disrupter because he is usually playing outside of a scouted time-management.

If he has to start for Orlando, chalk up the L that game.


..

[Bakomagic]

Cole Anthony bad season comes down to three things to me
1) Bad shot selection-forcing plays

2) coming back from injury- takes time to fully recover full confidence and explosiveness.

3) Teammates were not very good- makes it tough when defenses can fully focus on one threat on the court.


Optimistically speaking

Cliff should be helpful with improving his selection.

He’s had time to recover and get back to being confident and explosive.

All Orlando tragic jokes aside, he will have teammates who can finish his assists and create looks for him from time to time.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Anthony’s development is really going to be fascinating to watch.

To be perfectly frank, there was just very little in his statistical profile from his one college season that would indicate that he’s likely to have a lot of NBA success. He was a streaky shooter. He was a really poor finisher. He was a bad *and* unwilling passer. He was a mixed bag defensively. His shot selection was undeniably terrible.

That said...

We all watched the NBA the last few years and in the bubble and it is beyond obvious that perimeter players who can score from all three levels are king. Guys like Murray, Mitchell, Lillard, etc. Players who can put immediate pressure on the defense no matter where on the floor they touch the ball on a given possession.

Cole Anthony *was* that exact player in high school. He was that player in AAU ball. He was that player in the EYBL. He was that player on the all-star circuit. His explosiveness was more readily apparent. His willingness to pass was more readily apparent. He was the guy.

His UNC experience was a unequivocal failure. There’s no question about that. Obviously a good chunk of that failure falls at his feet. The million dollar question is how much of it?

If the answer is “all of it”, then he’s probably going to be a bust.

If the answer is “not very much of it”, then the Magic might have found something here.

This could certainly be me drinking the kool-aid, but I’m just having a difficult time accepting that *everything* that went wrong at UNC was his fault given what we know about that situation.

Ultimately, at the end of the day the Magic took the biggest swing they could for arguably the first time in Weltman and Hammond’s tenure. It may not work, and the odds say it’s really not likely to work, but they’re gambling on pedigree and a long track record of success before this past year.

I’m excited to see it play out.

He has really bad teammates. I think it’s unlikely it’s ALL on him considering his body of work prior to UNC. Did anyone else from that team even get drafted?

[RookieStar]

Anthony’s development is really going to be fascinating to watch.

To be perfectly frank, there was just very little in his statistical profile from his one college season that would indicate that he’s likely to have a lot of NBA success. He was a streaky shooter. He was a really poor finisher. He was a bad *and* unwilling passer. He was a mixed bag defensively. His shot selection was undeniably terrible.

That said...

We all watched the NBA the last few years and in the bubble and it is beyond obvious that perimeter players who can score from all three levels are king. Guys like Murray, Mitchell, Lillard, etc. Players who can put immediate pressure on the defense no matter where on the floor they touch the ball on a given possession.

Cole Anthony *was* that exact player in high school. He was that player in AAU ball. He was that player in the EYBL. He was that player on the all-star circuit. His explosiveness was more readily apparent. His willingness to pass was more readily apparent. He was the guy.

His UNC experience was a unequivocal failure. There’s no question about that. Obviously a good chunk of that failure falls at his feet. The million dollar question is how much of it?

If the answer is “all of it”, then he’s probably going to be a bust.

If the answer is “not very much of it”, then the Magic might have found something here.

This could certainly be me drinking the kool-aid, but I’m just having a difficult time accepting that *everything* that went wrong at UNC was his fault given what we know about that situation.

Ultimately, at the end of the day the Magic took the biggest swing they could for arguably the first time in Weltman and Hammond’s tenure. It may not work, and the odds say it’s really not likely to work, but they’re gambling on pedigree and a long track record of success before this past year.

I’m excited to see it play out.

He has really bad teammates. I think it’s unlikely it’s ALL on him considering his body of work prior to UNC. Did anyone else from that team even get drafted?

Better question would be, are there any on that team even going for playing basketball professionaly? I watched that team and.. yeah
.. just no.

[Nyce_1]

Watch on YouTube

[Knightro]

So I was doing some research on Cole Anthony v. Coby White since they were both highly regarded high school guard prospects who played at the same school under the same coach in the same system with a few of the same teammates too.

White
6′3 1/2” barefoot (rounded up to 6'4") 191 lbs, 6′5” wingspan, 8'1 1/2" standing reach, 19 years, 8 months at first NBA game

19.2 PER, .556 TS%, .516 eFG%, .523 3PT Rate, .293 FT Rate, 1.3 OREB%, 11.3 DRB%, 6.4 REB%, 24.4 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.3 BLK%, 15.5 TO%, 26.8 USG%

Anthony
6'1 1/2" barefoot (rounded up to 6'2"), 187 lbs, 6'4 1/2" wingspan, 7'11" standing reach, 20 years, 7 months at first NBA game

17.5 PER, .501 TS%, .451 eFG%, .409 3PT Rate, .371 FT Rate, 1.4 OREB%, 16.4 DRB%, 8.7 REB%, 24.1 AST%, 2.1 STL%, 0.9 BLK%, 15.9 TO%, 30.0 USG%

White's teammates
FG%: 47.3% on 54.6 per game
2PT%: 52.4% on 37.1 per game
3PT%: 36.5% on 17.5 per game
FT%: 73.1% on 16.6 per game

Anthony's teammates
FG%: 42.8% on 51.9 per game
2PT%: 47.8% on 38.2 per game
3PT%: 29.1% on 13.8 per game
FT%: 66.7% on 17.0 per game

The main thing that sticks out is the fact that Anthony's teammates took far fewer threes and hit them at a much worse clip. Four less attempts a game at 7.5% worse accuracy is a very significant difference. Not to mention shooting worse from 2 and from the line.

Does it explain away all of Anthony's struggles? Absolutely not. But it definitely gives some insight and context into how flawed last year's North Carolina roster was.

UNC's floor spacing was especially poor with two non-shooting bigs on the court at basically all times. It's not crazy to say that likely contributed to Anthony's struggles from a finishing perspective because there were always multiple bodies in or around the paint. Anthony's teammates being such poor shooters also likely contributed to his problems with overly aggressive shot selection.

White played with a first-team All-ACC player who was a lotto pick (Cam Johnson), another first round pick (Nasir Little) and a 2x All-ACC player who played 141 games (Luke Maye). There's a legitimate possibility that Anthony didn't play a minute with a single NBA teammate.

[pepe1991]

Coby White is definition of nba backup two guard. Or very low quality starter, given his rookie year.
50,6% TS, negative contribution on offense and defense, low quality shooter from all 3 major distances ( around rim, mid range,3 point line). His best fature is that he is painfully average 3 point shooter.

Comes as no suprise team peformed worst with him on the floor.

it is what it is.

One of most head scratching decisions about draft was why Bulls didn't take point guard.
Also why Bulls didn't bank on silly White run and flipped him while he was peaking at his value.

BUt hey, last time Bulls made right decision, Jordan was playing for them.

[Knightro]

Coby White is definition of nba backup two guard. Or very low quality starter, given his rookie year.
50,6% TS, negative contribution on offense and defense, low quality shooter from all 3 major distances ( around rim, mid range,3 point line). His best fature is that he is painfully average 3 point shooter.

Comes as no suprise team peformed worst with him on the floor.

it is what it is.

One of most head scratching decisions about draft was why Bulls didn't take point guard.
Also why Bulls didn't bank on silly White run and flipped him while he was peaking at his value.

BUt hey, last time Bulls made right decision, Jordan was playing for them.

It’s a good thing players, especially ones who make their NBA debuts as teenagers, are simply not capable of improving their game no matter what, right?

The fact that you write guys off so quickly will never cease to be amazing or hilarious to me.

Not every rookie is Luka Doncic or LeBron James and steps in and dominates from day 1 game 1. Those types of guys are the extreme outliers.

Most rookies start off bad, make very little impact toward winning early in their career and progressively get better over the life of their rookie contract.

[pepe1991]

Coby White is definition of nba backup two guard. Or very low quality starter, given his rookie year.
50,6% TS, negative contribution on offense and defense, low quality shooter from all 3 major distances ( around rim, mid range,3 point line). His best fature is that he is painfully average 3 point shooter.

Comes as no suprise team peformed worst with him on the floor.

it is what it is.

One of most head scratching decisions about draft was why Bulls didn't take point guard.
Also why Bulls didn't bank on silly White run and flipped him while he was peaking at his value.

BUt hey, last time Bulls made right decision, Jordan was playing for them.

It’s a good thing players, especially ones who make their NBA debuts as teenagers, are simply not capable of improving their game no matter what, right?

The fact that you write guys off so quickly will never cease to be amazing or hilarious to me.

Not every rookie is Luka Doncic or LeBron James and steps in and dominates from day 1 game 1. Those types of guys are the extreme outliers.

Most rookies start off bad, make very little impact toward winning early in their career and progressively get better over the life of their rookie contract.

Most nba players tragjectory is set and done after rookie year. Ones who suffer the most, from efficiency department compared to later -career departmens, are one who fill the stat sheet so they are already looked as "stars" (19 years old Lebron being elite, yet just 49% TS player, Durant having just 51% TS, but mostly because he averged 20 in rookie year ...)
Since you mentioned Luka, he had 54% TS in rookie year, so at a verge of league's average. He was 19.
by just looking at projection of rookie year- toward rest of a career, guys like Oladipo, Hezonja, Payton, Gordon ( just to name a few) never improved their efficiency, by TS% more than 3%. ( it's actually 2%, but Payton went from 45% to 49% )


After year 1# almost all players, due one and done rule are 21 years old or older.
It means they at that stage spent around 10 ( sometimes 15) years playing basketball at some level.
Is is objective to expect major leaps ? No, not really. By the end of rookie scale contract player is what he is. Because age progresses, and players have at that point few years to work with pro nutritionits and strenght and conditioning coaches.
But pss don't tell it to media, they love to spin it and sell it as "young upcomming" because it sounds exiting to sell illusions to fans. It's good marketing. Non less.

Giannis was "sold" as late potential guy, in 4th year,before exstension, he averaged 23 ppg, 9 rpg, and 5 apg. Does that sounds like "potential" or " already elite" guy to you?
Other "late bloomer" is Kawhi, but pss don't tell anybody he is second youngest finals MVP in history.


So back to Coby White. is it objective to expect player that sucked at flat out everything in rookie year to be good? No, it's not.

I'm writing players off too soon? Well it's far more accurate system than bank on "potential" of 6 year pros like some of a board was doing with Gordon (spoiler- never improved much since 3rd year).
I would bet my house Coby White will never be more than Jeremy Lamb type player.
He is -average shot, average efficiency, poor decision maker, poor passer, poor defender. I already posted above, his only "strenght" is that he is average 3 point shooter.

Even if you combine his rookie + college year, he still comes off as painfully average player.

[Knightro]

Most nba players tragjectory is set and done after rookie year. Ones who suffer the most, from efficiency department compared to later -career departmens, are one who fill the stat sheet so they are already looked as "stars" (19 years old Lebron being elite, yet just 49% TS player, Durant having just 51% TS, but mostly because he averged 20 in rookie year ...)
Since you mentioned Luka, he had 54% TS in rookie year, so at a verge of league's average. He was 19.
by just looking at projection of rookie year- toward rest of a career, guys like Oladipo, Hezonja, Payton, Gordon ( just to name a few) never improved their efficiency, by TS% more than 3%. ( it's actually 2%, but Payton went from 45% to 49% )


After year 1# almost all players, due one and done rule are 21 years old or older.
It means they at that stage spent around 10 ( sometimes 15) years playing basketball at some level.
Is is objective to expect major leaps ? No, not really. By the end of rookie scale contract player is what he is. Because age progresses, and players have at that point few years to work with pro nutritionits and strenght and conditioning coaches.
But pss don't tell it to media, they love to spin it and sell it as "young upcomming" because it sounds exiting to sell illusions to fans. It's good marketing. Non less.

Giannis was "sold" as late potential guy, in 4th year,before exstension, he averaged 23 ppg, 9 rpg, and 5 apg. Does that sounds like "potential" or " already elite" guy to you?
Other "late bloomer" is Kawhi, but pss don't tell anybody he is second youngest finals MVP in history.


So back to Coby White. is it objective to expect player that sucked at flat out everything in rookie year to be good? No, it's not.

I'm writing players off too soon? Well it's far more accurate system than bank on "potential" of 6 year pros like some of a board was doing with Gordon (spoiler- never improved much since 3rd year).
I would bet my house Coby White will never be more than Jeremy Lamb type player.
He is -average shot, average efficiency, poor decision maker, poor passer, poor defender. I already posted above, his only "strenght" is that he is average 3 point shooter.

Even if you combine his rookie + college year, he still comes off as painfully average player.

One of the main blind spots with your analysis, especially with young players who very often start out poor, is that you simply look at season averages and assume that average is what that player is. There's just no consideration to how a player has progressed within that time frame.

White's TS% for the season was 50%. Not great, right? But just looking at it that way makes it seem like he was a 50% TS guy every month of the entire season and ignores the context that White tangibly improved over the course of his rookie year from an efficiency standpoint.

TS% by month
November-January: 48.0%
February-March: 56.1%

You broadly paint White as a low efficiency guy and maybe that's all he's going to end up being. Or maybe it's possible - and hear me out on this - that he was a 19 year old rookie who got off to a rough start like so many other teenagers in the NBA do as he acclimated to the pro game.

Then after an adjustment period, he slowly but surely started to find a level of comfortability and started figuring out how he could have success.

It's happened with plenty of players over the years.