2023-2024 Official Around the NBA Discussion Thread

[Knightro]

We all know my favorite statistic in FG%. Win the FG% in a given game, and about 90% of the time, you win the game.

Just curious where you came up with this 90% figure?

[Skybox]

We all know my favorite statistic in FG%. Win the FG% in a given game, and about 90% of the time, you win the game.

Just curious where you came up with this 90% figure?

Assuming it's a fact ("about" usually suggests it's a feeling), it's flawed without the shot mix. Nobody's winning based on FG% without a reasonable percentage of 3pt shots. You CAN have lots of shooters and suck, but you can't NOT have shooters and not suck...This isn't Bad Boys era. If it were, here are the current 5 best players in the world...

1. Mark WilliamsCHA 83.0
2. Jalen SmithIND 71.7
3. Jakob PoeltlTOR 66.7
4. Onyeka OkongwuATL 63.8
5. Jalen DurenDET 63.8

[pepe1991]

We all know my favorite statistic in FG%. Win the FG% in a given game, and about 90% of the time, you win the game.

Just curious where you came up with this 90% figure?

There was some study from 2004 that figured that team that has higher FG wins in 79% cases.

With 3 point barrage it probably changed tho. (well... not much )

And i just went to test this on recent championship teams

2022-23 Nuggets- highest FG% in nba
2021-22 Warriors- 10th
2020-21- Bucks 3rd
2019-20 - Lakers best
2018-19 Raptors- 5th
2017-18- Warriors- best
2016-17- Warriors- best

Well i guess there is still strong co-relation between raw FG% and winning. We do have more advanced efficiency numbers than FG% , but still, better percentage of shots you knock, better your offense is, no matter what type of data/algorythm/ sortable numbers you use. It's not like those champinoship teams force 2s over 3s. they all play "moneyball" with 3s. So once you level the playfiled, team with highest FG, who doesn't do it at expense of modern offense, seems to still come on top more often than not.

I have to say, dive into this suprised me.

[eyriq]

Wizards have terrible body language. Good lord, just toxic.

[Knightro]

VanVleet mega clutch for the Rockets down the stretch.

[thelead]

VanVleet mega clutch for the Rockets down the stretch.

He was good down the stretch. Sengun was great as well minus the missed FTs down the stretch. And it’s interesting that Ime pulled Jabari for the last 6 minutes of the game in favor of Jeff F’ing Green

[ogmagicfan]

Wizards have terrible body language. Good lord, just toxic.

They're purposefully tanking, it's very annoying because this draft is so weak and the Wizards are finally deciding to tank after holding onto Beal for way too long & wasting his trade value for a team that wasn't going to win anything.

Almost reminds me of the Magic before this rebuild. Luckily we somehow got 2 1st for Vucevic and got Paolo during 2022 draft (which was touted as weak). We could've gotten more for Aaron Gordon & Fournier though

Their 2 best players have already won championships also, which can be a mess

Even weirder, Kuzma is only averaging 29 mpg & Poole is averaging 26 mpg. Even in games in which theyre doing well and its a close game theyre not getting heavy playing time.

It's particularly annoying living in the DC area, because ticket prices are still high until the day of the game when they drop, but not by as much as they should. I understand they want to tank but I'd atleast like some competitive games to go to and watch Poole & Kuzma cook up & put up big numbers

[CZ Eddie]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38862219/sources-jameer-nelson-promoted-gm-76ers-g-league-team

Read on Twitter

[The-Stallion70]

Chet is looking nice but let's see him try to carry his own team night in night out like Paolo.

[KillMonger]

man we were this close to trae/luka

[pepe1991]

man we were this close to trae/luka

But we got Gobert with 3 point shot instad

[CarraT]

man we were this close to trae/luka

But we got Gobert with 3 point shot instad

Thank god we won these last games in regular season, to establish our winning culture, instead of tanking the season out

[p0peye]

man we were this close to trae/luka

But we got Gobert with 3 point shot instad

Thank god we won these last games in regular season, to establish our winning culture, instead of tanking the season out

Yeah, we could've had Ayton!

[drsd]

We all know my favorite statistic in FG%. Win the FG% in a given game, and about 90% of the time, you win the game.

Just curious where you came up with this 90% figure?

There was some study from 2004 that figured that team that has higher FG wins in 79% cases.

With 3 point barrage it probably changed tho. (well... not much )

And i just went to test this on recent championship teams

2022-23 Nuggets- highest FG% in nba
2021-22 Warriors- 10th
2020-21- Bucks 3rd
2019-20 - Lakers best
2018-19 Raptors- 5th
2017-18- Warriors- best
2016-17- Warriors- best

Well i guess there is still strong co-relation between raw FG% and winning. We do have more advanced efficiency numbers than FG% , but still, better percentage of shots you knock, better your offense is, no matter what type of data/algorythm/ sortable numbers you use. It's not like those champinoship teams force 2s over 3s. they all play "moneyball" with 3s. So once you level the playfiled, team with highest FG, who doesn't do it at expense of modern offense, seems to still come on top more often than not.

I have to say, dive into this suprised me.

Thank you for this pepe.

I might hire a maths Masters students to do a long-dive look at FG%-differential over the last ~30 years, in absolute and relative terms. As I suspect that is far more informative than simply ranking offensive FG%. (one of my former PhD students has decided to go into sport-betting as her research program now that she has an Asst. Prof. of her own. She and I have been chatting on a sport project and it will be association football [soccer] and something else; why not NBA basketball ????).

I am interested in "what is predictive" not historic trends. I don't care how the Pistons won a title in the 90s. Every fan knows that sort of roster would SUCK in today's NBA.

[drsd]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38862219/sources-jameer-nelson-promoted-gm-76ers-g-league-team

Read on Twitter

That is a NICE suit!


..

[drsd]

Wizards have terrible body language. Good lord, just toxic.

If the Magic can get Corey Kispert for 80¢ on the dollar, then let them continue to sulk/suck.

Okeke and the Denver pick for Kispert + change; that sort of move.

[Skybox]

Wizards have terrible body language. Good lord, just toxic.

If the Magic can get Corey Kispert for 80¢ on the dollar, then let them continue to sulk/suck.

Okeke and the Denver pick for Kispert + change; that sort of move.

I’ve always liked Kispert…not sure where he’d land in our rotation tho

[drsd]

I'm Gobert, Mr. defense. Of course this isn't a foul!

[RookieStar]

Wizards have terrible body language. Good lord, just toxic.

If the Magic can get Corey Kispert for 80¢ on the dollar, then let them continue to sulk/suck.

Okeke and the Denver pick for Kispert + change; that sort of move.

I’ve always liked Kispert…not sure where he’d land in our rotation tho

Place Ingles in a suit and Kispert would be fine.

[pepe1991]

Pacers- 76ers is game that has my interest.

76ers are on a tear (hopefully Oubre is fine and will return soon), Pacers are apsolute masterful offensive team