Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LII "Lottery/Draft" Edition)

[Magicman125]

I have to admit, I used to favor taking Noel. With his ACL injury and how he really needs to grow into his frame, I may prefer drafting Smart with our pick this year. We really do need someone being groomed behind Jameer that is a realistic viable option to go forward with at the PG position. We're lacking in interior D yes, but that's something we'll want to continue lacking through next year, no? That's a problem I'd prefer to kick down the road because if I have to choose between a PG of the future and defensive post presence of the future, I'm going to choose to address PG given Nelson's age, contract situation, injury proneness, my lack of faith in Moore, and Smart's potential.

[rcklsscognition]

What is easier to find, a player like Smart or Noel? Gotta think next year's draft and the 2014 free agent class and figure out what the odds are you can fill out the roster. Do we already have our PF of the future? Can we get a young veteran in free agency in 2014? Will we draft one next year? What about PG, our other hole? Within the next season or two, we are going to have to find a Nelson replacement.

[OrlandO]

Projected record with Noel? Projected record with Smart? I'm thinking we are much worse next season with Noel and thus would be better for the 2014 draft. I guess it also depends who we're going after in free agency in '14

[OrlDave]

I believe it's easier to teach offense, over defense.

Defense is more about effort, if you able to put forth effort on defense, you are probably going to put forth the effort to work on your offensive skills.

there were a ton of players who came in to the league as poor shooters and improved.

I view it exactly the opposite. If you have offensive skills you have them, if you don't they likely aren't getting drastically better. Dwight is a good example of this. He improved, but not a lot and in some places he got worse <cough> free throws <cough>

JJ on the other hand, has improved quite a bit on defense. He came into the league an undersized 2 with no defensive reputation, but has put in the work and is now a competent team defender.

[JBSouthpaw]

I believe it's easier to teach offense, over defense.

Defense is more about effort, if you able to put forth effort on defense, you are probably going to put forth the effort to work on your offensive skills.

there were a ton of players who came in to the league as poor shooters and improved.

I view it exactly the opposite. If you have offensive skills you have them, if you don't they likely aren't getting drastically better. Dwight is a good example of this. He improved, but not a lot and in some places he got worse <cough> free throws <cough>

JJ on the other hand, has improved quite a bit on defense. He came into the league an undersized 2 with no defensive reputation, but has put in the work and is now a competent team defender.

there are so many offensive players who are out of the league or stuck on the ends of benches because they can't guard. to name a couple:
Adam Morrison
Chris Douglas Roberts
Europe is full of these guys

Also, Dwight has averaged 20pts a game, he's been in the top 20 in scoring, so I say he is an example of someone's defense making a difference before his offense comes around.


the numbeer 1 and number 2 picks this last year were made because there is hope they can develop into SOME type of offensive threat: Davis, MKG.
look at
Earl Clarke,
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute,
Corey Brewer (along w half of Denver's roster)
Reggie Evans has been in the league for EVER

[OrlDave]

I believe it's easier to teach offense, over defense.

Defense is more about effort, if you able to put forth effort on defense, you are probably going to put forth the effort to work on your offensive skills.

there were a ton of players who came in to the league as poor shooters and improved.

I view it exactly the opposite. If you have offensive skills you have them, if you don't they likely aren't getting drastically better. Dwight is a good example of this. He improved, but not a lot and in some places he got worse <cough> free throws <cough>

JJ on the other hand, has improved quite a bit on defense. He came into the league an undersized 2 with no defensive reputation, but has put in the work and is now a competent team defender.

there are so many offensive players who are out of the league or stuck on the ends of benches because they can't guard. to name a couple:
Adam Morrison
Chris Douglas Roberts
Europe is full of these guys

Also, Dwight has averaged 20pts a game, he's been in the top 20 in scoring, so I say he is an example of someone's defense making a difference before his offense comes around.


the numbeer 1 and number 2 picks this last year were made because there is hope they can develop into SOME type of offensive threat: Davis, MKG.
look at
Earl Clarke,
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute,
Corey Brewer (along w half of Denver's roster)
Reggie Evans has been in the league for EVER

Because a couple guys flame out doesn't really prove your point. Guys flame out all the time, both offensive guys and defensive guys. You think John Paxon brought any defense? Or Steve Kerr? Yet they not only stayed in the league they won multiple titles each. Heck, Steve Nash is known for being a pretty terrible defender his whole career. A GREAT defensive player will stay in the league for the same reason a GREAT offensive player will. That's not really the point. The question is which is easier to improve?

My take is it is easier to become a competent team defender than to learn basketball skills like shooting and ball handling at age 20+. To be a average to good defender you just need to know your assignments and be in the right spots. If a player is a bad defender it is either because of effort, lack of athletic ability or because he's not familiar with a team's schemes.

Back to Dwight. To suggest that he is anything beyond a bad offensive player is just wrong. The guy is so bad at basic offensive skills he can't even be on the floor late in the 4th quarter. He's an athlete and gets points from rebounds and dunks, but beyond that he's just not good.

[trebone]

The same thing about JJs Defense can also be said for his Offense, he was not much more than a spot up shooter coming out of college, it says more to his work ethic than it does to whether someone can improve on O vs D

[JBSouthpaw]

Because a couple guys flame out doesn't really prove your point. Guys flame out all the time, both offensive guys and defensive guys. You think John Paxon brought any defense? Or Steve Kerr? Yet they not only stayed in the league they won multiple titles each. Heck, Steve Nash is known for being a pretty terrible defender his whole career. A GREAT defensive player will stay in the league for the same reason a GREAT offensive player will. That's not really the point. The question is which is easier to improve?

My take is it is easier to become a competent team defender than to learn basketball skills like shooting and ball handling at age 20+. To be a average to good defender you just need to know your assignments and be in the right spots. If a player is a bad defender it is either because of effort, lack of athletic ability or because he's not familiar with a team's schemes.

Back to Dwight. To suggest that he is anything beyond a bad offensive player is just wrong. The guy is so bad at basic offensive skills he can't even be on the floor late in the 4th quarter. He's an athlete and gets points from rebounds and dunks, but beyond that he's just not good.

I can understand your point of why it's easier to teach Defense, I disagree, but I see your point.

Your thinking on Dwight is very obtuse. IF you are a pure shooter like the guys you named, you don't drive to the hole, you use the gifts you have. Same for Dwight. (Soar with your strengths) He gets his points from his athleticism because he can(at a much higher % too).
There are many guys that have played who stink at FTs. Duncan, Shaq, etc.
Dwight is 6th in the league in FG% and top 10 in Offensive rebounds, so not only does he score at one of the highest clips, but also creates more chances to score.

I know if he shot 15% better on his freethows, he'd be unstopable but that doesn't mean he is bad offensively.

[OrlChamps2030]

What is easier to find, a player like Smart or Noel? Gotta think next year's draft and the 2014 free agent class and figure out what the odds are you can fill out the roster. Do we already have our PF of the future? Can we get a young veteran in free agency in 2014? Will we draft one next year? What about PG, our other hole? Within the next season or two, we are going to have to find a Nelson replacement.

Considering what guys like Asik, Chandler, and Ibaka got paid (and what Sanders will get paid) a defensive anchor is much harder to find than a PG, the deepest position in the league.

Labeling Noel as Kwame or Haddadi is laughable. Not only is he 100x better at D than those guys, he's a freshman that averaged 10 ppg on 60% shooting and 1.6 apg. Much better offensively than plenty of good offensive centers in the NBA during their freshman year.

And ACL injuries don't worry me (unless said player is a lumbering giant)

[OrlDave]

I can understand your point of why it's easier to teach Defense, I disagree, but I see your point.

Your thinking on Dwight is very obtuse. IF you are a pure shooter like the guys you named, you don't drive to the hole, you use the gifts you have. Same for Dwight. (Soar with your strengths) He gets his points from his athleticism because he can(at a much higher % too).
There are many guys that have played who stink at FTs. Duncan, Shaq, etc.
Dwight is 6th in the league in FG% and top 10 in Offensive rebounds, so not only does he score at one of the highest clips, but also creates more chances to score.

I know if he shot 15% better on his freethows, he'd be unstopable but that doesn't mean he is bad offensively.

Duncan and Shaq both could reliably score the ball in the post. Granted I'd hesitate to call Shaq a great offensive player because he primarily just bulled guys over, but he did have a better offensive arsenal than Dwight. Duncan, on the other hand, is a great offensive player. He has a range of moves and shots both in the post and further out on the floor. Dwight has none of that. He can rebound and dunk, he can catch alley-oops and he can run the PnR. Beyond that, asking Dwight to get you a score is asking for a turnover or missed hook shot. I'm not even talking free throws here, he's just not a good offensive player.

If your point is, that he's good enough, then fine I'll be happy to agree with that. But in no way has he drastically improved, despite working with Ewing, and Hakeem.

[RickB-Orlando]

While I get the idea that Noel is a very strong inside presence, in my opinion the Magic cannot afford to swing and miss on a pick this year. Noel's significant injury coupled with his literally spindly legs scare me about a guy that's supposed to be a power player. Any player that has missed the bull of the college season is an automatic pass for me.

I'm warming to Smart. Could be our starting point for the next six to ten years. Plenty of room to grow but lots of leadership and game manage,net skills.

[trebone]

While I get the idea that Noel is a very strong inside presence, in my opinion the Magic cannot afford to swing and miss on a pick this year. Noel's significant injury coupled with his literally spindly legs scare me about a guy that's supposed to be a power player. Any player that has missed the bull of the college season is an automatic pass for me.

I'm warming to Smart. Could be our starting point for the next six to ten years. Plenty of room to grow but lots of leadership and game manage,net skills.

So Kyrie Irving had you worried coming out of college to the point of not taking him?

Smart or Noel for me.

[OrlChamps2030]

While I get the idea that Noel is a very strong inside presence, in my opinion the Magic cannot afford to swing and miss on a pick this year. Noel's significant injury coupled with his literally spindly legs scare me about a guy that's supposed to be a power player. Any player that has missed the bull of the college season is an automatic pass for me.

I'm warming to Smart. Could be our starting point for the next six to ten years. Plenty of room to grow but lots of leadership and game manage,net skills.

So you wouldn't have taken Irving?

As a guy who has both Smart and Noel in his Top 3 there is no logic behind thinking one will bust while the other won't. Both are project players with great defense yet VERY raw on the offensive end. Unless you have a crystal ball I'm not sure how you see Noel busting and Smart starting the next ten years.

[RickB-Orlando]

While I get the idea that Noel is a very strong inside presence, in my opinion the Magic cannot afford to swing and miss on a pick this year. Noel's significant injury coupled with his literally spindly legs scare me about a guy that's supposed to be a power player. Any player that has missed the bull of the college season is an automatic pass for me.

I'm warming to Smart. Could be our starting point for the next six to ten years. Plenty of room to grow but lots of leadership and game manage,net skills.

So you wouldn't have taken Irving?

As a guy who has both Smart and Noel in his Top 3 there is no logic behind thinking one will bust while the other won't. Both are project players with great defense yet VERY raw on the offensive end. Unless you have a crystal ball I'm not sure how you see Noel busting and Smart starting the next ten years.

Yes, I may have passed on Irving. But he's a different player than Noel.

And I'm not saying Noel doesn't have talent, but (a) I'm concerned about his injury and his frame - the guys legs are like toothpicks, and (b) there doesn't appear to be that big a gap between the top players this year.

No one single player is showing themselves to be the obvious first round pick. In that environment, I favor the players that aren't coming off a major injury.

[RookieStar]

I'm with the other guys in NOT going for Noel. I dunno but i get scared of injured players especially given our history

[Tayswagzzz]

Let's all take a moment and be thankful this guy isn't our GM and we picked Hennigan instead.

[Nolimit1211]

At work (bar/restaurant) watching the Heat/Magic game... Game ends, 2 hours later I turn around and I'm standing next to Jameer and Al Harrington.

From jet to the bar that quickly, too bad it was late the place was empty... place was packed cheering on the magic just a couple hours ago!

[arsenal6106]

At work (bar/restaurant) watching the Heat/Magic game... Game ends, 2 hours later I turn around and I'm standing next to Jameer and Al Harrington.

From jet to the bar that quickly, too bad it was late the place was empty... place was packed cheering on the magic just a couple hours ago!

Where have you been NoLimit?

[glennathan]

Let's all take a moment and be thankful this guy isn't our GM and we picked Hennigan instead.

I am glad we waited on Hennigan and not Bower.

[Noonskadoodle]

At work (bar/restaurant) watching the Heat/Magic game... Game ends, 2 hours later I turn around and I'm standing next to Jameer and Al Harrington.

From jet to the bar that quickly, too bad it was late the place was empty... place was packed cheering on the magic just a couple hours ago!

Where have you been NoLimit?

No kidding