Moderators: UCF, Knightro, UCFJayBird, Def Swami, Howard Mass, ChosenSavior
sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:The CDC is filled with the BEST minds that have dedicated their entire career to learning and combating the very thing we are talking about.
Its pretty simple. You take advice from the best in a field unless you are the best in that field.
sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:Ducklett wrote:sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:It all came down to testing and containment as quick as possible.
We failed miserably at both.
Now it really is we are going to have to work from home for the foreseeable future..
Duckett referenced the 18 months, in what I interpreted as him belittling the department.
That is the Mother F***ing CDC, or Center for Disease Control and Protection!
If they say 18 months you should really start to wrap your head around what we are talking about here. In who's lifetime has ALL major sports, schools, restaurants, and the service industry all been shuttered over a little flu?
That alone should tell you what we are in for.
I've worked from home for the last decade and became a recluse. Only person that can affect me is my wife. I'll still get it. Mine will just be later than others.
You act like the CDC is infallible. In a lot of ways they are less accurate at their professions than NOAA is at predicting hurricanes.
When does the cure (shutdown/isolation for 18 months) become more damaging than the disease? Economists are all predicting ~20% unemployment rate and will see some cities that are tourism dependent (Orlando) up to 66% jobless. THAT'S INSANE. How long do you expect these companies to pick up the tab for sick days? 2 weeks? 2 months? Certainly not 18 months. On a plan that the CDC thinks, depending on which expert you ask, should end in 8 weeks... err no the end of June.... err wait the end of summer... err 18 MONTHS!
Maybe when Israel or Australia's treatment/vaccines are human tested.
But wait... some experts also say it will mutate and flair up every year like the seasonal flu, so does that mean 18 month shutdown every season?
There aren't answers to these questions. You should be wondering about this stuff too.
I expect this to fundamentally change the way society is ran. I'm hoping for the "Bill and Ted" sort of society, but fully expect the "Mad Max" version.
sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:Ducklett wrote:spinedoc wrote:
Okay, let's calm down here. No one is attacking the Republican party, they are criticizing this president. I believe there is merit for it. After all, the President then didn't say that H1N1 was a Republican hoax. There is intentional bad or misinformation being put out on conservative outlets, and we are having to filter through that in order to get a decent set of facts out. I've even seen things about martial law and other crazy things. Let's not be so defensive to "our" party and simply call it for what it is. I honestly believe I would do the same if it were the left doing this as well. Hey, I have a lot of issues with the Kale crowd too, let's try to be civil and intellectually honest with one another.
Your criticism isn't realistic. You have 1000s of scientists and 100s of models all predicting different things. Remember back in January where we thought it was only a week incubation period? Now we are at unknown to infinite because we have cases of people asymptomatic for ~2 months still testing positive. Turns out as more facts came out the policy and rhetoric changed. Why/how is that shocking to people? It just seems so disingenuous to suggest that Trump and Trump alone somehow handled this correctly/incorrectly at point A while not judging it from point A's facts on the virus/situation and judging on what we know now. Was the "democrat hoax" comment totally stupid? Yep. Who cares about what he said at a rally? He made a task force and got every facet of CDC/FEMA/etc to make plans and give him ones that don't totally destroy our economy and they are trying to make guess work policy. It is a totally damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for this guy. I don't even truly care for Trump, but villainizing him over this is so childish and reeks of partisan bull**** that has been running discourse in this country into the ground for decades.
Spine, can you politely explain how Drumpf not only fired the 13 medical directors and gutted the CDC of essential personnel and funds to divert to a wall he never built, but he spent the subsequent months after his impeachment rallying his base and firing those that testified against him via tweet, instead of setting up protocols when he was warned of it?
You can Google Coronavirus and see this didn't start in February.
Whenever national tragedy happens all of America turns to the administration of the president for not just what demeanor to have. But literally set up how supply chains are going to work from state to state, amongst many, many other logistical factors that the administration must contend with, then disseminate the game plan to the Medical directors, and on down the line of management.
This administration is about 2-4 months behind where everyone else is in terms of testing alone.
The reason there has been soooooooooooo many different models is because this is something the medical field has never encountered.
It isn't N1H1, bird, SARS or any others. The best minds are guessing until those guesses become a theory, which then needs to be tested against hundred of times to be proven correct, and only one anomaly or outlier to be disproved, and trashed.
That is how science works, and why we should believe them. They don't google answers. They go through rigorous testing to prove something. Much of that mandated by the government.
..
tiderulz wrote:sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:The CDC is filled with the BEST minds that have dedicated their entire career to learning and combating the very thing we are talking about.
Its pretty simple. You take advice from the best in a field unless you are the best in that field.
ehh, i live in Atlanta with the CDC HQ. my best buds mom worked until retirement for them, i have met quite a few. A lot of smart people, also a lot of career govt people that arent smarter than anyone else.
Ducklett wrote:sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:Ducklett wrote:
You act like the CDC is infallible. In a lot of ways they are less accurate at their professions than NOAA is at predicting hurricanes.
When does the cure (shutdown/isolation for 18 months) become more damaging than the disease? Economists are all predicting ~20% unemployment rate and will see some cities that are tourism dependent (Orlando) up to 66% jobless. THAT'S INSANE. How long do you expect these companies to pick up the tab for sick days? 2 weeks? 2 months? Certainly not 18 months. On a plan that the CDC thinks, depending on which expert you ask, should end in 8 weeks... err no the end of June.... err wait the end of summer... err 18 MONTHS!
Maybe when Israel or Australia's treatment/vaccines are human tested.
But wait... some experts also say it will mutate and flair up every year like the seasonal flu, so does that mean 18 month shutdown every season?
There aren't answers to these questions. You should be wondering about this stuff too.
I expect this to fundamentally change the way society is ran. I'm hoping for the "Bill and Ted" sort of society, but fully expect the "Mad Max" version.
People riot for less, so you probably aren't wrong in that assessment.
The governor here is a tool, unfortunatelybasketballRob wrote:BadMofoPimp wrote:pepe1991 wrote:
That was orginal myth, that temperature will kill virus. HOWEVER, here in my country one of people that has confirmed virus come from Dubai, where right now there is 30 C temperature.
It's summer in Australia, they have 450 confirmed cases.
So we can wrap whole " warm = no virus " notion to garbage.
People swetting on sun and touching everything like beach chairs, parasols, doors sounds like a meca for spreading to me.
People bring their own beach chairs and there are no doors. You park and walk to the beach and claim your spot. Most people don't sit near each other on the beach.
OrlandoNed wrote:EAS Law wrote:Since apparently we have to run all discussion through a couple of posters here to make sure it’s acceptable, I figured I’d ask a question this way...
What do you guys make of the fact that the mortality rate in the US has dropped from approximately 2-3% to about 1.7%? How about the fact that many, many more are likely to be carriers but we cannot verify because of the lack of testing and confirmation?
This virus can sort of “hide” because of the instances of an asymptomatic response, but you can’t hide a death. I doubt everyone that may have died as a result of COVID19 was tested for it unless they presented with specific respiratory distress or something, but logic would hold that there are way more cases than deaths than even our numbers currently show via the CDC, and the mortality rate is declining.
I think the declining mortality rate is just confirming that the only thing special about Corona is just how contagious it is. Other than that, Corona is a normal flu with a overblown reputation. Simple as that.
tiderulz wrote:sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:It all came down to testing and containment as quick as possible.
We failed miserably at both.
Now it really is we are going to have to work from home for the foreseeable future..
Duckett referenced the 18 months, in what I interpreted as him belittling the department.
That is the Mother F***ing CDC, or Center for Disease Control and Protection!
If they say 18 months you should really start to wrap your head around what we are talking about here. In who's lifetime has ALL major sports, schools, restaurants, and the service industry all been shuttered over a little flu?
That alone should tell you what we are in for.
I've worked from home for the last decade and became a recluse. Only person that can affect me is my wife. I'll still get it. Mine will just be later than others.
i work from home too. but i still have to go out for gas, groceries, etc. so you are likely affected by more than just your wife.
i almost smacked my son last night when he said he and some friends wanted to get together to play some kickball. im like, we are 3 days into semi "quarantine". no, you wont be doing this
Xatticus wrote:OrlandoNed wrote:EAS Law wrote:Since apparently we have to run all discussion through a couple of posters here to make sure it’s acceptable, I figured I’d ask a question this way...
What do you guys make of the fact that the mortality rate in the US has dropped from approximately 2-3% to about 1.7%? How about the fact that many, many more are likely to be carriers but we cannot verify because of the lack of testing and confirmation?
This virus can sort of “hide” because of the instances of an asymptomatic response, but you can’t hide a death. I doubt everyone that may have died as a result of COVID19 was tested for it unless they presented with specific respiratory distress or something, but logic would hold that there are way more cases than deaths than even our numbers currently show via the CDC, and the mortality rate is declining.
I think the declining mortality rate is just confirming that the only thing special about Corona is just how contagious it is. Other than that, Corona is a normal flu with a overblown reputation. Simple as that.
I do not presume to be an expert on infectious diseases, but I do know how to critically read and interpret statistics.
This is not the flu. One imbecile called it the corona flu and this seems to have stuck in the heads of people. The flu is a disease caused by a family of viruses (influenza). Just as ebola is a family of viruses. This belongs to the corona virus family. Think SARS or MERS. Each strain within a family is unique. Some are more contagious than others. Some are more virulent than others.
Corona viruses seem to have far higher mortality rates than influenza viruses, but up until this point, we hadn't dealt with a particularly contagious strain of a corona virus. SARS had a mortality rate of 20%. MERS had a mortality rate of 33%. These killed relatively few people though, because they weren't very contagious and were contained before they could become widespread. A contagious strain of a corona virus is a very scary thing.
We do not know the mortality rate of this disease because we do not have the data to make such a determination. The data from country to country is inconsistent, unreliable, or inaccurate for a variety of reasons. The mortality rate in Italy thus far seems to be around 9%, for example. Again though, we just don't know. One can't expect certainty in a time of uncertainty. These numbers could go up or down for a variety of reasons. People don't die as soon as they contract it. Some of those that are currently infected will die. If you base the mortality rates on recoveries, the mortality rates would be demonstrably higher. The data from China is probably the best we have to work with regarding the mortality rate for a number of reasons and they have a mortality rate of somewhere between 4-4.5%.
It is estimated that 20% of those infected become severe cases that require hospital treatment. If that treatment is unavailable due to an overload of the healthcare system, the mortality rate of this disease is going to climb. This might explain why Italy has a significantly higher mortality rate at present. The faster this thing spreads, the more dangerous it becomes. If everyone gets sick within a short period of time, the mortality rate will be significantly higher than if its transmission through the population is slow. China has effectively halted it by shutting down, but China and the far east had a much healthier appreciation of the danger presented by corona viruses due to a previous scare.
It has been reported that many of those that have died have had underlying comorbid conditions. I think this is giving many people a false sense of security. The large majority if adults in the United States have underlying comorbidities. 14% of adults smoke, 8% have asthma, 40% are obese and another 30% are overweight. Many people have cardiovascular diseases that they are unaware of.
The population of the United States is less healthy overall than many other countries and we have a paradoxically inferior healthcare system compared to many other countries despite the percentage of GDP that we commit to healthcare. A recent study by a panel of experts convened at a university in the United Kingdom predicted 250,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and 1,000,000 deaths in the United States. If those numbers seem insignificant to you, then I don't know what to tell you.
sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:
Spine, can you politely explain how Drumpf not only fired the 13 medical directors and gutted the CDC of essential personnel and funds to divert to a wall he never built, but he spent the subsequent months after his impeachment rallying his base and firing those that testified against him via tweet, instead of setting up protocols when he was warned of it?
You can Google Coronavirus and see this didn't start in February.
Whenever national tragedy happens all of America turns to the administration of the president for not just what demeanor to have. But literally set up how supply chains are going to work from state to state, amongst many, many other logistical factors that the administration must contend with, then disseminate the game plan to the Medical directors, and on down the line of management.
This administration is about 2-4 months behind where everyone else is in terms of testing alone.
The reason there has been soooooooooooo many different models is because this is something the medical field has never encountered.
It isn't N1H1, bird, SARS or any others. The best minds are guessing until those guesses become a theory, which then needs to be tested against hundred of times to be proven correct, and only one anomaly or outlier to be disproved, and trashed.
That is how science works, and why we should believe them. They don't google answers. They go through rigorous testing to prove something. Much of that mandated by the government.
I have kept saying administration to be civil here.
..
spinedoc wrote:sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:
Spine, can you politely explain how Drumpf not only fired the 13 medical directors and gutted the CDC of essential personnel and funds to divert to a wall he never built, but he spent the subsequent months after his impeachment rallying his base and firing those that testified against him via tweet, instead of setting up protocols when he was warned of it?
You can Google Coronavirus and see this didn't start in February.
Whenever national tragedy happens all of America turns to the administration of the president for not just what demeanor to have. But literally set up how supply chains are going to work from state to state, amongst many, many other logistical factors that the administration must contend with, then disseminate the game plan to the Medical directors, and on down the line of management.
This administration is about 2-4 months behind where everyone else is in terms of testing alone.
The reason there has been soooooooooooo many different models is because this is something the medical field has never encountered.
It isn't N1H1, bird, SARS or any others. The best minds are guessing until those guesses become a theory, which then needs to be tested against hundred of times to be proven correct, and only one anomaly or outlier to be disproved, and trashed.
That is how science works, and why we should believe them. They don't google answers. They go through rigorous testing to prove something. Much of that mandated by the government.
I have kept saying administration to be civil here.
..
I think you just did. For me, its the out of hand comments to automatically discount any government agency like that. Its no different for those here who rail on management of the Magic every single time, no matter who we replace them with. Rather than, have a merit based argument. That's what I mean by telling someone's political persuasion based on the rote, rehearsed language they use. I like rational thought, we may still disagree, but show your work. Let me see how you're thinking about the problem, rather than knee jerk dismissive comments.
sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:Xatticus wrote:OrlandoNed wrote:I think the declining mortality rate is just confirming that the only thing special about Corona is just how contagious it is. Other than that, Corona is a normal flu with a overblown reputation. Simple as that.
I do not presume to be an expert on infectious diseases, but I do know how to critically read and interpret statistics.
This is not the flu. One imbecile called it the corona flu and this seems to have stuck in the heads of people. The flu is a disease caused by a family of viruses (influenza). Just as ebola is a family of viruses. This belongs to the corona virus family. Think SARS or MERS. Each strain within a family is unique. Some are more contagious than others. Some are more virulent than others.
Corona viruses seem to have far higher mortality rates than influenza viruses, but up until this point, we hadn't dealt with a particularly contagious strain of a corona virus. SARS had a mortality rate of 20%. MERS had a mortality rate of 33%. These killed relatively few people though, because they weren't very contagious and were contained before they could become widespread. A contagious strain of a corona virus is a very scary thing.
We do not know the mortality rate of this disease because we do not have the data to make such a determination. The data from country to country is inconsistent, unreliable, or inaccurate for a variety of reasons. The mortality rate in Italy thus far seems to be around 9%, for example. Again though, we just don't know. One can't expect certainty in a time of uncertainty. These numbers could go up or down for a variety of reasons. People don't die as soon as they contract it. Some of those that are currently infected will die. If you base the mortality rates on recoveries, the mortality rates would be demonstrably higher. The data from China is probably the best we have to work with regarding the mortality rate for a number of reasons and they have a mortality rate of somewhere between 4-4.5%.
It is estimated that 20% of those infected become severe cases that require hospital treatment. If that treatment is unavailable due to an overload of the healthcare system, the mortality rate of this disease is going to climb. This might explain why Italy has a significantly higher mortality rate at present. The faster this thing spreads, the more dangerous it becomes. If everyone gets sick within a short period of time, the mortality rate will be significantly higher than if its transmission through the population is slow. China has effectively halted it by shutting down, but China and the far east had a much healthier appreciation of the danger presented by corona viruses due to a previous scare.
It has been reported that many of those that have died have had underlying comorbid conditions. I think this is giving many people a false sense of security. The large majority if adults in the United States have underlying comorbidities. 14% of adults smoke, 8% have asthma, 40% are obese and another 30% are overweight. Many people have cardiovascular diseases that they are unaware of.
The population of the United States is less healthy overall than many other countries and we have a paradoxically inferior healthcare system compared to many other countries despite the percentage of GDP that we commit to healthcare. A recent study by a panel of experts convened at a university in the United Kingdom predicted 250,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and 1,000,000 deaths in the United States. If those numbers seem insignificant to you, then I don't know what to tell you.
Very well said. I tried to say this 3 different times already, but this was said much better.
Everyone should get this from the different data sets.
My only outlying hope here is when we survive, we will have to change the healthcare system among many, many other society norms.
This is really, almost laughably, the worse case scenario that shows you how important a competent administration is to the survival of its nation during an emergency crisis or war.
I know I sound like a leftist, I'm not. I just know the broad strokes of history and crunch numbers.
This situation is outside of those norms, and the numbers that are coming in are downright scary. The US trajectory is already far steeper than most.
basketballRob wrote:Kung flu is the new nickname
EAS Law wrote:Do we know of this all really did stem from the consumption of exotic animals? My God what a price for the world to pay for something like that.
Xatticus wrote:sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote:Xatticus wrote:
I do not presume to be an expert on infectious diseases, but I do know how to critically read and interpret statistics.
This is not the flu. One imbecile called it the corona flu and this seems to have stuck in the heads of people. The flu is a disease caused by a family of viruses (influenza). Just as ebola is a family of viruses. This belongs to the corona virus family. Think SARS or MERS. Each strain within a family is unique. Some are more contagious than others. Some are more virulent than others.
Corona viruses seem to have far higher mortality rates than influenza viruses, but up until this point, we hadn't dealt with a particularly contagious strain of a corona virus. SARS had a mortality rate of 20%. MERS had a mortality rate of 33%. These killed relatively few people though, because they weren't very contagious and were contained before they could become widespread. A contagious strain of a corona virus is a very scary thing.
We do not know the mortality rate of this disease because we do not have the data to make such a determination. The data from country to country is inconsistent, unreliable, or inaccurate for a variety of reasons. The mortality rate in Italy thus far seems to be around 9%, for example. Again though, we just don't know. One can't expect certainty in a time of uncertainty. These numbers could go up or down for a variety of reasons. People don't die as soon as they contract it. Some of those that are currently infected will die. If you base the mortality rates on recoveries, the mortality rates would be demonstrably higher. The data from China is probably the best we have to work with regarding the mortality rate for a number of reasons and they have a mortality rate of somewhere between 4-4.5%.
It is estimated that 20% of those infected become severe cases that require hospital treatment. If that treatment is unavailable due to an overload of the healthcare system, the mortality rate of this disease is going to climb. This might explain why Italy has a significantly higher mortality rate at present. The faster this thing spreads, the more dangerous it becomes. If everyone gets sick within a short period of time, the mortality rate will be significantly higher than if its transmission through the population is slow. China has effectively halted it by shutting down, but China and the far east had a much healthier appreciation of the danger presented by corona viruses due to a previous scare.
It has been reported that many of those that have died have had underlying comorbid conditions. I think this is giving many people a false sense of security. The large majority if adults in the United States have underlying comorbidities. 14% of adults smoke, 8% have asthma, 40% are obese and another 30% are overweight. Many people have cardiovascular diseases that they are unaware of.
The population of the United States is less healthy overall than many other countries and we have a paradoxically inferior healthcare system compared to many other countries despite the percentage of GDP that we commit to healthcare. A recent study by a panel of experts convened at a university in the United Kingdom predicted 250,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and 1,000,000 deaths in the United States. If those numbers seem insignificant to you, then I don't know what to tell you.
Very well said. I tried to say this 3 different times already, but this was said much better.
Everyone should get this from the different data sets.
My only outlying hope here is when we survive, we will have to change the healthcare system among many, many other society norms.
This is really, almost laughably, the worse case scenario that shows you how important a competent administration is to the survival of its nation during an emergency crisis or war.
I know I sound like a leftist, I'm not. I just know the broad strokes of history and crunch numbers.
This situation is outside of those norms, and the numbers that are coming in are downright scary. The US trajectory is already far steeper than most.
I think some changes will be made to better cope with the eventuality of future pandemics, but I don't think this will serve as the impetus for substantive healthcare changes. If the United States was a democracy, we would already have a universal healthcare system. The majority of the population is in support of it, but as with many issues, the political will doesn't represent the wants of the masses. Our healthcare insurance industry is like a tiger that has its teeth sunk into the neck of its prey. It isn't going to let go. There is too much on the line. I don't think it's any coincidence that the democratic party's establishment has machinated to nominate the candidate with the least substantive plan for healthcare reform. Just look at last night's primaries for the evidence.
I would say that the one big positive from this might be the precedent that is set by handing out money to everyone in this time of need. I'm a big proponent of universal basic income or a negative income tax. Industry doesn't drive the economy. Demand does. Where there is demand, industry will rise to meet it. The government has been in the business of handing out money for a long time, but it has given it out to contractors for the defense or justice departments. Or it infuses money into a banking system that endangers the entire country with excess risk. Money that is given to the poor and working class addresses the needs of those most in need and it is money that is injected straight back into the economy. I think it is kind of a big deal that there is bipartisan support for this right now.
EAS Law wrote:Do we know of this all really did stem from the consumption of exotic animals? My God what a price for the world to pay for something like that.
Furinkazan wrote:This virus is very well written.Really good programming.
