Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[KillMonger]

they might log some time in the G-league maybe? it makes a bit more sense with moving to oceola from lakeland

[thelead]

My head still hurts looking at the roster. I actually like a lot of the guys on the roster... there's just not enough time for everyone.

[VFX]

they might log some time in the G-league maybe? it makes a bit more sense with moving to oceola from lakeland

Sending a top 10 lotto pick to the G-league equals failure.

[eyriq]

they might log some time in the G-league maybe? it makes a bit more sense with moving to oceola from lakeland

IMO Black is in the rotation, and no lower than 6th for that matter.

[Knightro]

they might log some time in the G-league maybe? it makes a bit more sense with moving to oceola from lakeland

IMO Black is in the rotation, and no lower than 6th for that matter.

It just can't really be both.

The Magic can choose to emphasize player development and get Black, Howard and Houstan on the floor...

Or they can emphasize competing for the playoffs in which case Gary, Cole, Suggs and Ingles are all are all going to be ahead of Black in the pecking order. And forget about Jett and Caleb, they're glued to the bench.

You can't say you want to maximize your chances at the playoffs and then move Cole, who was legitimately very effective as the backup PG, to an off-ball backup SG role that he's never been good at, ya know?

[eyriq]

they might log some time in the G-league maybe? it makes a bit more sense with moving to oceola from lakeland

IMO Black is in the rotation, and no lower than 6th for that matter.

It just can't really be both.

The Magic can choose to emphasize player development and get Black, Howard and Houstan on the floor...

Or they can emphasize competing for the playoffs in which case Gary, Cole, Suggs and Ingles are all are all going to be ahead of Black in the pecking order. And forget about Jett and Caleb, they're glued to the bench.

You can't say you want to maximize your chances at the playoffs and then move Cole, who was legitimately very effective as the backup PG, to an off-ball backup SG role that he's never been good at, ya know?

This is exactly right. You are either focused on player development and evaluation or on winning. All indicators point to this being another season focused on player development and evaluation. Another way to think about it is a focus between current value or future value. I think we are still focused on future value.

Also, saying a rookie isn't guaranteed 30 mins really just tells me that Black and Jett are not auto-slotted starting roles.

[Knightro]

This is exactly right. You are either focused on player development and evaluation or on winning. All indicators point to this being another season focused on player development and evaluation. Another way to think about it is a focus between current value or future value. I think we are still focused on future value.

Also, saying a rookie isn't guaranteed 30 mins really just tells me is that Black and Jett are not auto-slotted starting roles.

I just don't agree with you.

If this season was really about player development and evaluation, they wouldn't have signed Ingles. They wouldn't have retained Gary. They would have traded one of Fultz or Anthony. They didn't do any of those things.

There's no tangible path for Black, Howard and Houstan to even get consistent rotation minutes right now, forget about starting roles. They're not even going to play very much with the way things are presently constructed.

IMO the Magic are trying to do both and it's not really possible to do that. Ask Golden State how that worked out when they tried to integrate Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody in with their established veterans.

[Knightro]

Outside of Franz, Paolo and Suggs, this rotation is projected to be pretty experienced otherwise.

G: Fultz year 6, Anthony year 4
G: Harris year 10, Suggs year 3
F: Wagner, year 3, Ingles year 10
F: Banchero year 2, Isaac year 6
C: Carter year 6, Moritz year 6

Like this isn't quite as much of a big group of young kids as everyone is suggesting it is. Not until Black, Howard and Houstan actually replace some of these older players.

[basketballRob]

The 4 guards we have were injured in 87 games last season. Odds are that at least one of them has an ankle sprain or hamstring strain at the beginning of the season.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[eyriq]

This is exactly right. You are either focused on player development and evaluation or on winning. All indicators point to this being another season focused on player development and evaluation. Another way to think about it is a focus between current value or future value. I think we are still focused on future value.

Also, saying a rookie isn't guaranteed 30 mins really just tells me is that Black and Jett are not auto-slotted starting roles.

I just don't agree with you.

If this season was really about player development and evaluation, they wouldn't have signed Ingles. They wouldn't have retained Gary. They would have traded one of Fultz or Anthony. They didn't do any of those things.

There's no tangible path for Black, Howard and Houstan to even get consistent rotation minutes right now, forget about starting roles. They're not even going to play very much with the way things are presently constructed.

IMO the Magic are trying to do both and it's not really possible to do that. Ask Golden State how that worked out when they tried to integrate Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody in with their established veterans.

I get your point but consider that we've been coming at this from different angles all along. You've (and correct me if I'm inaccurately depicting your views here), but I've heard your view about Fultz as essentially being one where the longer we keep him the more likely he's a core member of the near term team.

Implicit to this view is a belief that the probability that Fultz is our starting PG for the next 3-4 years nears 100% the longer we sit on his current contract.

Now, I imagine something similar is at work with Cole. The longer we sit on Cole's contract the closer the probability gets to 100% that he's our 6th man for the next 3-4 years.

My view is that the backcourt (Fultz/Harris/Cole/Sugg) is terrible and that the front office needed to blow it up with the fist salvo being that they draft two guards in the lottery. Which they did. So then the dominos start falling for me and the next step is to reshape the backcourt, e.g., introduce the lottery picks into the rotation as the first step.

So it makes sense why you disagree, you see them not moving on Fultz and Cole as confirmation that they are considered long-term pieces, which leaves the lottery selections of Black and Jett as nonsensical and wasteful. Whereas I see them selecting two guards in the lottery as a clear indication that they are blowing up the backcourt. We'll see I guess.

[eyriq]

There is also just the small detail that Black is better than Fultz and Cole already.

[Knightro]

I get your point but consider that we've been coming at this from different angles all along. You've (and correct me if I'm inaccurately depicting your views here), but I've heard your view about Fultz as essentially being one where the longer we keep him the more likely he's a core member of the near term team.

Implicit to this view is a belief that the probability that Fultz is our starting PG for the next 3-4 years nears 100% the longer we sit on his current contract.

Now, I imagine something similar is at work with Cole. The longer we sit on Cole's contract the closer the probability gets to 100% that he's our 6th man for the next 3-4 years.

My view is that the backcourt (Fultz/Harris/Cole/Sugg) is terrible and that the front office needed to blow it up with the fist salvo being that they draft two guards in the lottery. Which they did. So then the dominos start falling for me and the next step is to reshape introduce the lottery picks into the rotation.

So it makes sense why you disagree, you see them not moving on Fultz and Cole as confirmation that they are considered long-term pieces, which leaves the lottery selections of Black and Jett as nonsensical and wasteful. Whereas I see them selecting two guards in the lottery as a clear indication that they are blowing up the backcourt. We'll see I guess.

You are accurately depicting my views.

I believe the Magic are going to have a reasonable amount of team success this season. I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if they finish over .500 and at the very least make the play-in tournament, if not the playoffs itself.

If that level of team success does come to fruition, the odds of this front office letting Markelle Fultz (the starting PG) or Cole Anthony (the primary 6th man) from their over .500 and possible playoff team walk away so they can hand either one of those player's respective rotation spots over to Anthony Black/Jett Howard seem remarkably slim to me to the point of being nearly non-existent.

This team's likely success is going to dictate their future personnel decisions. Weltman is not going to be willing to take a step backwards from the likely/impending success of this season IMO.

[eyriq]

What cracks me up is that our fans put out depth charts with Black as a 3rd stringer but the national media knows better. And when I say cracks me up I really mean puts into a rage

[eyriq]

I get your point but consider that we've been coming at this from different angles all along. You've (and correct me if I'm inaccurately depicting your views here), but I've heard your view about Fultz as essentially being one where the longer we keep him the more likely he's a core member of the near term team.

Implicit to this view is a belief that the probability that Fultz is our starting PG for the next 3-4 years nears 100% the longer we sit on his current contract.

Now, I imagine something similar is at work with Cole. The longer we sit on Cole's contract the closer the probability gets to 100% that he's our 6th man for the next 3-4 years.

My view is that the backcourt (Fultz/Harris/Cole/Sugg) is terrible and that the front office needed to blow it up with the fist salvo being that they draft two guards in the lottery. Which they did. So then the dominos start falling for me and the next step is to reshape introduce the lottery picks into the rotation.

So it makes sense why you disagree, you see them not moving on Fultz and Cole as confirmation that they are considered long-term pieces, which leaves the lottery selections of Black and Jett as nonsensical and wasteful. Whereas I see them selecting two guards in the lottery as a clear indication that they are blowing up the backcourt. We'll see I guess.

You are accurately depicting my views.

I believe the Magic are going to have a reasonable amount of team success this season. I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if they finish over .500 and at the very least make the play-in tournament, if not the playoffs itself.

If that level of team success does come to fruition, the odds of this front office letting Markelle Fultz (the starting PG) or Cole Anthony (the primary 6th man) from their over .500 and possible playoff team walk away so they can hand either one of those player's respective rotation spots over to Anthony Black/Jett Howard seem remarkably slim to me to the point of being nearly non-existent.

This team's likely success is going to dictate their future personnel decisions. Weltman is not going to be willing to take a step backwards from the likely/impending success of this season IMO.

Fine and good, just factor in that Black is likely playing a significant role in this season's success and you'll feel better about the implications of a successful season.

The parallels to Vooch and Bamba are interesting though. Vooch took off to all-star caliber play and Bamba sucked, so the 6th pick was wasted. Fultz could take off to all-star caliber play and Black could bust, but those are extremely low probability events.

I don't know, I guess we are setup for some drama. I'm quite fond of Black and will be pretty pissed if he's stymied in any other scenario than Fultz becoming an all-star.

[Knightro]

The 4 guards we have were injured in 87 games last season. Odds are that at least one of them has an ankle sprain or hamstring strain at the beginning of the season.

This is not an acceptable way to map a rotation and get rookies paths to minutes so they can develop.

"It's ok that the 6th overall pick is blocked out of the rotation because the odds are somebody will get hurt which will put him on the floor."

OK then what about when that player returns from injury? If Black's struggling, does he go back to being out of the rotation?

Depth is just that. Depth.

You want guys who can capably fill in when called upon like Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield on your third string, not guys who need minutes for development purposes.

[Knightro]

Fine and good, just factor in that Black is likely playing a significant role in this season's success and you'll feel better about the implications of a successful season.

How though?

Wanting it to happen doesn't mean it's actually going to happen.

He's certainly not starting over Fultz and he's not taking Cole's 6th man role if the goal is to actually win games.

And if the argument is "he's better than those guys and will play over one of them" then why didn't the Magic opt to just trade one of them to ensure that happens?

[eyriq]

Fine and good, just factor in that Black is likely playing a significant role in this season's success and you'll feel better about the implications of a successful season.

How though?

Wanting it to happen doesn't mean it's actually going to happen.

He's certainly not starting over Fultz and he's not taking Cole's 6th man role if the goal is to actually win games.

And if the argument is "he's better than those guys and will play over one of them" then why didn't the Magic opt to just trade one of them to ensure that happens?

The answer is that "he's better than" and "will play over". The reason we haven't traded one of them is because we are evaluating roster needs before transitioning into roster building around the core next offseason I think. I don't think a trade is out of the question though.

[eyriq]

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[rcklsscognition]

One of AB's best skills is eyes up as soon as he touches the ball. If he plays today, watch him when he takes the inbound or gets an outlet for a fastbreak. He almost doesn't even acknowledge his defender and seems to be just looking at the entire court instead.

As for this rotation discussion, it's simply too early for a team to move players because of a draft pick, even if it's the #1 pick. You gotta get the draft pick into camp, see how he plays against the veterans, if he's a phenom, you make a trade before the season starts. If there is some potential for some roster leapfrogging, you make a trade by mid season to get the rookie more time. No sense to do it now.

[RookieStar]

Eh... to me, since I don't want to throw a rookie into the fire unless he shows in practice he is one of those transcendent ones ( lbj,luka,etc) Im fine with im being a 3rd stringer until the end of this year. However, WHEN he shows improvements, I expect him to be the primary backup already starting January and if we really are confident in him already, a trade will be made that give him an opportunity to play more than 30mins a game.