Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

[PrimeThyme]

Only 24 games left guys... 3 quarters of the season down && now were on the home stretch. It would take us going 17-7 the rest of the way to even get close to the playoffs at 38 wins.For a team that hasn't had consecutive wins since December there is no way in hell thats happening.

We seem to be a lock for the top ten at this point and barring a panic trade at the deadline I'm expecting a top five pick. This might be our year...

[Nemesis21]

Sadly, as bad as we are, the Lakers are actually worse. How do you get blown out by the Suns?! This is gonna make it three consecutive drafts where they get a top 3 or higher pick. Our draft luck for a tanking team really has sucked. This has to be the year were that changes. Just one top pick!

They wouldn't get a top 3 pick, if we would stop winning games. We'd have the same record as them, if we didn't win the recent Toronto and Miami games.

[PrimeThyme]

Sadly, as bad as we are, the Lakers are actually worse. How do you get blown out by the Suns?! This is gonna make it three consecutive drafts where they get a top 3 or higher pick. Our draft luck for a tanking team really has sucked. This has to be the year were that changes. Just one top pick!

They wouldn't get a top 3 pick, if we would stop winning games. We'd have the same record as them, if we didn't win the recent Toronto and Miami games.

Yeah it's really disappointing. We have actually greatly overachieved for how bad we've been this year. Our adjusted win loss on ESPN.com is 15-43 which is the second worse only to Brooklyn. We are supposed to be the second worse team right now.

[OrlandoDream]

Sadly, as bad as we are, the Lakers are actually worse. How do you get blown out by the Suns?! This is gonna make it three consecutive drafts where they get a top 3 or higher pick. Our draft luck for a tanking team really has sucked. This has to be the year were that changes. Just one top pick!

They wouldn't get a top 3 pick, if we would stop winning games. We'd have the same record as them, if we didn't win the recent Toronto and Miami games.

Yeah it's really disappointing. We have actually greatly overachieved for how bad we've been this year. Our adjusted win loss on ESPN.com is 15-43 which is the second worse only to Brooklyn. We are supposed to be the second worse team right now.

We're not goinna lose every game. We also are playing some below 500 teams the rest way so schedule gets a little easier. Expect more wins then we have so far this year.

Only way we crack top 3 is if we win the lottery. Right now we are solid at 4 which kinda sucks bc due to the odds we have a better chance at dropping to 5.

W/E a top 5 pick this year will put us in the best draft position since this rebuild started. Walking away with Isaac, Smith Jr or Jackson is a ultimate win. Finally we have a possible star to build around.

[Nemesis21]

They wouldn't get a top 3 pick, if we would stop winning games. We'd have the same record as them, if we didn't win the recent Toronto and Miami games.

Yeah it's really disappointing. We have actually greatly overachieved for how bad we've been this year. Our adjusted win loss on ESPN.com is 15-43 which is the second worse only to Brooklyn. We are supposed to be the second worse team right now.

We're not goinna lose every game. We also are playing some below 500 teams the rest way so schedule gets a little easier. Expect more wins then we have so far this year.

Only way we crack top 3 is if we win the lottery. Right now we are solid at 4 which kinda sucks bc due to the odds we have a better chance at dropping to 5.

W/E a top 5 pick this year will put us in the best draft position since this rebuild started. Walking away with Isaac, Smith Jr or Jackson is a ultimate win. Finally we have a possible star to build around.

F that! We need to embrace the tank. Roll with DJ, CJ, Green, Rudez, Zimm the rest of the way! Get into top 3 and push the Lakers out!

[PrimeThyme]

They wouldn't get a top 3 pick, if we would stop winning games. We'd have the same record as them, if we didn't win the recent Toronto and Miami games.

Yeah it's really disappointing. We have actually greatly overachieved for how bad we've been this year. Our adjusted win loss on ESPN.com is 15-43 which is the second worse only to Brooklyn. We are supposed to be the second worse team right now.

We're not goinna lose every game. We also are playing some below 500 teams the rest way so schedule gets a little easier. Expect more wins then we have so far this year.

Only way we crack top 3 is if we win the lottery. Right now we are solid at 4 which kinda sucks bc due to the odds we have a better chance at dropping to 5.

W/E a top 5 pick this year will put us in the best draft position since this rebuild started. Walking away with Isaac, Smith Jr or Jackson is a ultimate win. Finally we have a possible star to build around.

I still don't think this team cracks 28 wins. There's some easy games in the next quarter of the season but this team has lost to Philly, Phoenix, New Orleans, Dallas, && many other bad teams this year. There is no guarantee wins except for the two Brooklyn games we have left.

I still want the best shot we can get at Fultz or Ball.

[darthcheech2000]

If you look at the schedule then theres only a few, 2-3, we should win on paper.

Both Brooklyn games and maybe the Philly game. The rest should be losses, based off opponent record vs. ours (Phoenix is a B2B and last game of a mini west coast road trip)

That puts us at 24 wins... but opponents will come to games relaxed, assuming an easy win against us, so we'll win a few we shouldn't.

I guess we're in the 25-28 range, good enough for the worst record some years... but not this year.

[Audi]

Remember guys - it's the pick AFTER the balls roll, not the record puts them. LA could still be in the top three but have their pick end up bouncing them outside of it. Us winning more games then than them doesn't necessarily spell disaster. Technically, the lotto balls falling in our favor could get us a top 3 pick while simultaneously knocking their pick out of the top 3 ensuring us that unprotected.

[OrlandoDream]

Yeah it's really disappointing. We have actually greatly overachieved for how bad we've been this year. Our adjusted win loss on ESPN.com is 15-43 which is the second worse only to Brooklyn. We are supposed to be the second worse team right now.

We're not goinna lose every game. We also are playing some below 500 teams the rest way so schedule gets a little easier. Expect more wins then we have so far this year.

Only way we crack top 3 is if we win the lottery. Right now we are solid at 4 which kinda sucks bc due to the odds we have a better chance at dropping to 5.

W/E a top 5 pick this year will put us in the best draft position since this rebuild started. Walking away with Isaac, Smith Jr or Jackson is a ultimate win. Finally we have a possible star to build around.

I still don't think this team cracks 28 wins. There's some easy games in the next quarter of the season but this team has lost to Philly, Phoenix, New Orleans, Dallas, && many other bad teams this year. There is no guarantee wins except for the two Brooklyn games we have left.

I still want the best shot we can get at Fultz or Ball.

We are not getting Fultz unless we win the lottery and don't suck enough to catch up to PHX or LA. LA is also gonna be trading Lou soon which pretty much guarantees they might win 1-2 games rest of the way.

Important tank games left:
New York 3/1
New York 3/6
Hornets 3/10 (playing ridiculously bad lately but we dont match up well vs them every so still think L)
Suns 3/17
Philly 3/20
Hornets 3/22
Brooklyn 4/1
Brooklyn 4/6

So yes we are playing some subpar 500 below teams coming up. If we trade Green and Watson and go full EP, Evan, Mario/Ross, AG, Vuc, we could end up winning half of those games or more. Once the team gets a couple of games in with this fast small ball lineup, don't be surprised to pull an upset here and there. Like I said, as bad as we looked last night, we are still better then Lakers, Nets, Suns, and Philly w/o Embiid.

I'm sticking to my prediction and say we finish with the 4th or 5th pick which is still in the room to draft a stud. Finally, for the first star-studded draft, we are not one pick short. This is a marginal improvement over our previous drafts. Ill take it.

[npiper17]

Updated

I believe we won't be seeing that lakers pick, which would be another failure on Hennigans long resume of failed transactions. If the Lakers end up outside of the top 3, they lose thisbyears pick to Philly and their 2019 pick to us. Not a chance in hell that happens. WTG Hennigan, couldn't get an unprotected 1st from the team you gave the way player to.

Oh come on. This is just too much. NOBODY thought LA was going to crash and burn like they did after we sent them Dwight. At the time they definitely didn't look like they were putting together the tank squad they've become. Blame Henny for lots of things, but not for lacking a crystal ball.

Yeah a bit harsh NEM. I'm critical of a lot about the Magic front office and more specifically, how we've developed players, but it's a bit far to blame Hennigan for not seeing 5/7 years into the future.
For all he knew, Dwight continues as a star followed by Kobe's retirement and the free agent signing of someone like DeMar DeRozan. I'm sure Danny Ainge didn't think he'd be pick swapping into the best chance of winning the lottery all those years ago.

Also there are two silver linings here (although admittedly they are thin).

1) If the Lakers finish with the 2nd worst record then the lowest they can pick is 5th. 4th or 5th going to Philly is a big chance for them to improve their team (2 high picks in a draft this strong). Imagine if Philly won the lottery and got the 4th pick - Fultz and one of Jackson, Monk, Isaac would set them up for years. So, Philly not getting the pick the pick would be a plus if we're going to try and compete with them in the near future.

2) Getting a high second rounder is always a valuable asset. The Magic could use the pick from the Ibaka trade and the Lakers second rounder to potentially trade up or just add another potentially useful player at 32 who would be a non-guaranteed contract. I mean if every team missed on Yogi Ferrell, isn't it about time our crap team utilised some of its 'being crap' time to see what / who else is out there?

Would I prefer the Lakers unprotected first in 2019? Of course. But it's not all doom and gloom if it doesn't happen and I don't think it's on Hennigan if it doesn't either.

[Xatticus]

Updated

I believe we won't be seeing that lakers pick, which would be another failure on Hennigans long resume of failed transactions. If the Lakers end up outside of the top 3, they lose thisbyears pick to Philly and their 2019 pick to us. Not a chance in hell that happens. WTG Hennigan, couldn't get an unprotected 1st from the team you gave the way player to.

Oh come on. This is just too much. NOBODY thought LA was going to crash and burn like they did after we sent them Dwight. At the time they definitely didn't look like they were putting together the tank squad they've become. Blame Henny for lots of things, but not for lacking a crystal ball.

Last year Kobe was kind a scapegoat for why they suck... This year? Their draft picks are just such a defensive garbage. Randle can't defend at all, Russell is worthless on defense, Ingram gives like 80 pounds to SFs that he should defend, at SG he can't make jumper to save his life.

Their commitment to Bryant is why they are so bad right now. He chased away player after player and they couldn't draw any premier free agents in to play alongside him. They let him have his way long after he was a productive player and they are paying for it now. Just ten years ago it seemed unfathomable that the Lakers could bottom out as they have. I would never call Kobe Bryant a scapegoat. He is the most overrated player in the history of the sport.

That said, they have some intriguing pieces right now and it's way too early to start writing them off. perhaps Ingram and Russell do end up as busts, but it is way too early to label them as such. This is the reality of the new NBA. If you draft 19-year-olds, you have to expect them to struggle in their first couple years.

[FRESHsince1983]

Their commitment to Bryant is why they are so bad right now. He chased away player after player and they couldn't draw any premier free agents in to play alongside him. They let him have his way long after he was a productive player and they are paying for it now. Just ten years ago it seemed unfathomable that the Lakers could bottom out as they have. I would never call Kobe Bryant a scapegoat. He is the most overrated player in the history of the sport.

I come in peace but In my opinion outlandish statements such as this can severely damage your posting credibility. Sad to say that I see this far too often in this very forum and I log in daily. We have to be better as fans of this team to be honest and not short sighted in the topics that we discuss, if we truly intend to have productive dialogue and not just the useless back and forth. I think that we still have a good chance to net something positive from the picks that came as a result of the Dwight trade.

[Xatticus]

Their commitment to Bryant is why they are so bad right now. He chased away player after player and they couldn't draw any premier free agents in to play alongside him. They let him have his way long after he was a productive player and they are paying for it now. Just ten years ago it seemed unfathomable that the Lakers could bottom out as they have. I would never call Kobe Bryant a scapegoat. He is the most overrated player in the history of the sport.

I come in peace but In my opinion outlandish statements such as this can severely damage your posting credibility. Sad to say that I see this far too often in this very forum and I log in daily. We have to be better as fans of this team to be honest and not short sighted in the topics that we discuss, if we truly intend to have productive dialogue and not just the useless back and forth. I think that we still have a good chance to net something positive from the picks that came as a result of the Dwight trade.

The truth hurts. I know. Credibility be damned.

[FRESHsince1983]

Their commitment to Bryant is why they are so bad right now. He chased away player after player and they couldn't draw any premier free agents in to play alongside him. They let him have his way long after he was a productive player and they are paying for it now. Just ten years ago it seemed unfathomable that the Lakers could bottom out as they have. I would never call Kobe Bryant a scapegoat. He is the most overrated player in the history of the sport.

I come in peace but In my opinion outlandish statements such as this can severely damage your posting credibility. Sad to say that I see this far too often in this very forum and I log in daily. We have to be better as fans of this team to be honest and not short sighted in the topics that we discuss, if we truly intend to have productive dialogue and not just the useless back and forth. I think that we still have a good chance to net something positive from the picks that came as a result of the Dwight trade.

The truth hurts. I know. Credibility be damned.

Lol aye man it's no hard feelings. If you think Kobe is the most overrated player in NBA history I can wholeheartedly walk away from this conversation knowing that our logics won't find a common ground. I hope that one day maybe before 2030 we can win 1 championship. Maybe then others will start talking about how overreacted we are lol.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[UCFJayBird]

I don't have the updated numbers in front of me but I seem to recall March/April will be the easier part of the schedule for the Magic this season, so don't be too surprised if we end up on a run and around the 8-10 pick range.

[Ducklett]

Remember guys - it's the pick AFTER the balls roll, not the record puts them. LA could still be in the top three but have their pick end up bouncing them outside of it. Us winning more games then than them doesn't necessarily spell disaster. Technically, the lotto balls falling in our favor could get us a top 3 pick while simultaneously knocking their pick out of the top 3 ensuring us that unprotected.

This horrible line of thinking is why we are a bottom feeder after 5 years of rebuilding.

[Nemesis21]

I don't have the updated numbers in front of me but I seem to recall March/April will be the easier part of the schedule for the Magic this season, so don't be too surprised if we end up on a run and around the 8-10 pick range.

[SOUL]

Remember guys - it's the pick AFTER the balls roll, not the record puts them. LA could still be in the top three but have their pick end up bouncing them outside of it. Us winning more games then than them doesn't necessarily spell disaster. Technically, the lotto balls falling in our favor could get us a top 3 pick while simultaneously knocking their pick out of the top 3 ensuring us that unprotected.

This horrible line of thinking is why we are a bottom feeder after 5 years of rebuilding.

I think he just means we can (sort of) control how we play and where we end up, what we can't control is what the Lakers do and just because they land at (x) spot doesn't mean people should freak out yet.

[eyriq]

Remember guys - it's the pick AFTER the balls roll, not the record puts them. LA could still be in the top three but have their pick end up bouncing them outside of it. Us winning more games then than them doesn't necessarily spell disaster. Technically, the lotto balls falling in our favor could get us a top 3 pick while simultaneously knocking their pick out of the top 3 ensuring us that unprotected.

This horrible line of thinking is why we are a bottom feeder after 5 years of rebuilding.

This is as fascinating a fail of comprehension as I've seen in a while.

[MagicFan32]

out tanking the lakers is a necessity