Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[MoMM]

The deal I heard is Mozgov + DJ + Bamba for Conley and it works in the trade checker:
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7198770

Personally, I'd accept this deal. Basically we would be moving our expirings from 2020 offseason to 2021 and trading Bamba for Conley.

[BadMofoPimp]

Daily Memphian: The Mike Conley Trade Speculation Column (Summer Edition)

Orlando Magic: D.J. Augustin had a nice playoff series but he’s no Conley and maybe the Magic, after being bad for so long, should tap the gas to get a little better right now. If they re-sign center Nikola Vucevic, Conley would pair nicely with him and could also both play with and be a kind of bridge for trade acquisition Markelle Fultz. How could Orlando get a deal done?

Backup center Timofey Mozgov ($16.7 million expiring) is the financial starting point and Orlando’s No. 16 pick in this summer’s draft the primary value piece. What rounds out the deal? There are some options. Swingman Evan Fournier ($17 million each of the next two seasons) would be a tidy concluding piece. Otherwise, other possible pieces would include D.J. Augustin ($7.3 million expiring) or perhaps even Markelle Fultz ($9.7 million in last guaranteed year of rookie deal) or even rising second-year center Mo Bamba if Orlando wants to ditch that plan. Mozgov/Fournier/16 pick for Conley seems like one of the cleanest potential deals out there.

Mozgov and Fournier for Conley? lol Grizz aren't that dumb.

Well, they are thinking in the realm of dumping Conley for Expirings and getting a 1st rounder to boot. Now, Fournier is not an expriing while DJ is. Would be a tough choice between that deal and the Pistons offering two expirings in Reggie and Leuer plus their pick for Conley.

[VFX]

Obviously he's listing possible assets to combine, not all of them for Conley...the trade he's focused on is 16 + Fournier + Mozgov

16, Fournier + Mozgov likely doesn’t get that deal done. There are other teams that could offer more. It would merely be consolidating higher priced assets + whatever picks just to remain “competitive”. The future will be sacrificed in some way (picks, youth, etc.) for 2 years of Conley going into 33 years of age at the end of that contract.

A Conley, Ross, Isaac, AG, and Vuc lineup isn’t winning anything.

The Memphis Grizzly's beat writer thinks it gets the deal done. In fact his exact words about all the trades from various teams he proposed:

"Mozgov/Fournier/16 pick for Conley seems like one of the cleanest potential deals out there"

He's their beat writer and he goes into what he's heard is out there for them and complications with cap etc and says the above quote about the Magic trade he proposed.

The future isn't sacrificed by trading away a 16th pick...the Magic have Fultz, Isaac, Frazier, Gordon, and Bamba all under 23 + have Iwundu and Fournier both in prime ascent AND have all their 1st and 2nd round picks moving forward. Conley is an excellent leader and stabilizer for the youth. If anything you are inserting someone who'll improve the youth's development.

...and a lineup with DJ at helm just made playoffs and won a game vs elite D and EC finalist Toronto...Conley is exponentially better than DJ and the young guys will all be a year more developed + Fultz

He also listed like 3 other teams that are possible suitors with arguably better assets and 5 other teams that make as much if not more sense.

[yoyojw17]

The deal I heard is Mozgov + DJ + Bamba for Conley and it works in the trade checker:
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7198770

Personally, I'd accept this deal. Basically we would be moving our expirings from 2020 offseason to 2021 and trading Bamba for Conley.

will suck as Ja Morant is lobbing alley's to bamba who is 255 lb in 2 years.... and Conley is in a wheel chair. lol.... jk

[SOUL]

I'm not for moving prospects unless it's a move that gets us to the ECF or further. Conley is good but its very high risk with a low reward move.

[VFX]

I'm not for moving prospects unless it's a move that gets us to the ECF or further. Conley is good but its very high risk with a low reward move.

Agreed. We need to find our go-to scoring option of the future before we start moving assets for players that won’t have significant value 2-3 years from now.

[Bensational]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

[Bensational]

I'm not for moving prospects unless it's a move that gets us to the ECF or further. Conley is good but its very high risk with a low reward move.

Giving up Bamba seems unnecessary. The #16 I could live with, but would prefer not to. Overall, I think some other team that's closer to contending will offer up more value. Lakers, for example, if their rep continues to be tarnished with internal bs, and FAs avoid them.

[Skin]

It isn't...but I'd be much more comfortable letting Vucevic walk if Conley was here as there would be an actual player that you could construct an offense around.

I'm more interested in staying competitive and having the young core play in 82+ meaningful games over the next few crucial seasons of their development. To me the best scenario for that is with both Vucevic and Conley as I don't trust free agency yet except for filling in back half of roster

Conley / DJ or Fultz / Briscoe or MCW or Fultz if not ready
Ross /
Gordon / Iwundu / Frazier
Isaac
Vucevic / Bamba

Its very doable financially:

That bench unit would be murdered night in night out. We’d likely have to grab another FA who can shoot/play minutes which could push us into Tax Bracket.

Yea, the Magic would have to add FA with MLE/BAE or if Fultz is ready flip DJ into a decent back up wing.

Once you have a quality PG like Conley, its a lot easier to find and play someone at wing that doesn't need to be a volume creator for himself and others.

Will we get a MLE if we go into the offseason under the cap? I thought that was only for teams over the cap, but maybe I'm wrong.

[ezzzp]

He also listed like 3 other teams that are possible suitors with arguably better assets and 5 other teams that make as much if not more sense.

Yea, which ones?

[ezzzp]

That bench unit would be murdered night in night out. We’d likely have to grab another FA who can shoot/play minutes which could push us into Tax Bracket.

Yea, the Magic would have to add FA with MLE/BAE or if Fultz is ready flip DJ into a decent back up wing.

Once you have a quality PG like Conley, its a lot easier to find and play someone at wing that doesn't need to be a volume creator for himself and others.

Will we get a MLE if we go into the offseason under the cap? I thought that was only for teams over the cap, but maybe I'm wrong.

Yes, there are two versions. One is for over luxury tax and one is for under luxury tax. The most likely for the Magic would be the below luxury tax one which is the bigger one at $9.2m

[Skin]

Everyone knows Orlando is looking for a PG who can be a floor general and score. Fultz can be the sixth man of the team coming off the bench and I think that is going to be his role next season.

I want to give Fultz every opportunity to succeed.

This means, I'm not drafting a PG at 16.
This means, I'm not signing or trading for another young PG.
This means, I'm not signing or trading for a big named PG.

Older aged... understands his role... could mentor Fultz... still has gas in the tank to help us chase playoffs... won't cost more than $10M per year...

Guys I would look at in FA are:
Patrick Beverley
Rajon Rondo
Derrick Rose - Fultz could learn a lot from Rose who has a similar game and history of injury
Michael Carter Williams - on the list cause he played surprisingly well last year

Putting all our eggs in the Fultz basket would be a mistake. I'm pretending he's not even on the team until I actually see him take a jumper. I also think it's possible to develop two young guards at the same time without them stepping on each others' toes. We should still be in the market for any talented scoring/playmaking guards available. I like Fultz because he's a low risk play that could pan out; similar to how Spencer Dinwiddie did for the Nets, and Dinwiddie's development didn't seem to hinder D'Angelo Russell's or vice versa. Even Caris Levert excelled with those guys. We just need all the talent we could get. So I wouldn't rule out obtaining another PG. If Fultz is good enough, he'll earn his spot. There's such a dearth for what Fultz could theoretically provide, there's room for more than one young, talented PG.

I don't think that getting Beverley or Rondo would be putting it all in Fultz basket. For every Dinwiddie/Russell there's 3 stories the other way... Fournier/Dipo... Harris/Gordon/Hezonja... Vuc/Biyombo... when young players have to fight for playing time and they are looking to "get theirs" or think "it's my time now"... it more often than not results in a difficult situation.

I think it just boils down to getting to know the players... a guy who understands his role as a bench player and can embrace it, imo, it really is a valuable trait. If Rondo and Beverley are not willing to accept eventually being overtaken, then they shouldn't be brought in either. If they are and can hold down the fort until Fultz proves himself, then great.

[Skin]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

I'm a sucker for believing this stuff. Could've said Vuc wants $30M and WeHam are fixed on $25 and I would've believed it.

I'll say this though... $20M is very encouraging. Simply because I think he can get more and if WeHam won't budge then bye bye kind sir! Have doubts on that Dallas offer, but I hope they make it!

Having to attach that pick in order to dump Fournier sounds right. Despite homers thinking Fournier is some valuable asset. tsk tsk.

Fultz

[ezzzp]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

His "insider" claim to fame was that he said he knew someone who told him that Bamba was WelHam's pick and MPJr's back was a problem for this season

Hmm so his "source" let him know that:

• A GM duo specifically known to crave players with long wingspans wanted to draft an 8' 10 wingspan guy who projects to be in their draft range and btw their starting C is set to hit free agency...

• A guy coming off of spinal surgery the previous month won't be ready to go the upcoming season...

...call me crazy, but this doesn't seem at all credible

On that note:

Sacramento and Dallas are both interested in Tobias Harris: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/tobias-harris-will-draw-plenty-of-interest-in-free-agency.html

[MasterGMer]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

Brogdon is a RFA. How could MIL let him go? He is their biggest prize off the bench

[weezt0e]

The guy clarified, saying that the fultz thing was meant as a positive. As in, its truly not a mental injury, but a physical one.

[Bensational]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

I'm a sucker for believing this stuff. Could've said Vuc wants $30M and WeHam are fixed on $25 and I would've believed it.

I'll say this though... $20M is very encouraging. Simply because I think he can get more and if WeHam won't budge then bye bye kind sir! Have doubts on that Dallas offer, but I hope they make it!

Having to attach that pick in order to dump Fournier sounds right. Despite homers thinking Fournier is some valuable asset. tsk tsk.

Fultz

I don't share your conviction in moving on from Vuc. $20M or less would be good value in my eyes for what he brings. But I suspect some team will offer him $25M.

I don't understand how they'd be able to move Fournier for capspace, unless they trade him and the #16 for JR Smith's unguaranteed deal. But I would be happy to have Brogdon on the team for the same coin.

Fultz is a bummer. But that just emphasises the importance of management continuing to find backcourt players to develop, because he's not something we can count on yet. All I really want is more backcourt prospects or talent.

[Bensational]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

Brogdon is a RFA. How could MIL let him go? He is their biggest prize off the bench

Not sure. They're reaching a point where they might have to go all in on this squad, with Middleton and Brogdon both being FAs, and Giannis and Bledose locked in to long term deals, but no real cap room to make bigger additions.

[Bensational]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

His "insider" claim to fame was that he said he knew someone who told him that Bamba was WelHam's pick and MPJr's back was a problem for this season

Hmm so his "source" let him know that:

• A GM duo specifically known to crave players with long wingspans wanted to draft an 8' 10 wingspan guy who projects to be in their draft range and btw their starting C is set to hit free agency...

• A guy coming off of spinal surgery the previous month won't be ready to go the upcoming season...

...call me crazy, but this doesn't seem at all credible

On that note:

Sacramento and Dallas are both interested in Tobias Harris: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/tobias-harris-will-draw-plenty-of-interest-in-free-agency.html

Like I said, there's no point trying to prove he's credible or not. They just serve as interesting talking points.

Teams will be linked to lots of players over the next few months. 4 teams are said to be interested in Harris, 5 if you include Philly. There's only one Tobias Harris to go around though, so a lot of them will be considering other options.

[ezzzp]

There is a post on Reddit from someone claiming 'sauces' that offered up some interesting tidbits worth discussing. No point bothering to credit or discredit them, but they give us something to talk about.

Vuc - apparently wants $25M, but WeHam are fixed on $20M. Dallas allegedly prepared to throw $30M at him.

Fournier - WeHam apparently are prepared to use our #16 to trade to trade Fournier for cap space. Allegedly they want to make a run at Brogdon in free agency.

Fultz - still very much injured, apparently.

Discuss away.

Brogdon is a RFA. How could MIL let him go? He is their biggest prize off the bench

Not sure. They're reaching a point where they might have to go all in on this squad, with Middleton and Brogdon both being FAs, and Giannis and Bledose locked in to long term deals, but no real cap room to make bigger additions.

Giannis hits free agency in summer 2021, so they would be crazy to play it cheap with their contention window open now and next two seasons. But they do have a ton of incoming salary to keep that group together; Lopez, Middelton, Brogdon and Mirotic.

They'll probably renegotiate Hill or waive him as he's only $1m guaranteed...plus they'll probably pkg a pick with Tony Snell for anything that gets him off the books.