dsg2021 wrote:GM Hennigan is smarter than anyone we've ever had. He's got two great Asst. GM's already and I believe those three and a few select others are all inputting together and making a very careful process out of the Dwight situation with a trade board with statistics, scouting, and contract(s)-impact analysis on every offer.
I think GM Hennigan is taking the top 5-8 offers and simultaneously negotiating them all down to the near/best possible framework and will then carefully consider them for at least a day before doing a final negotiation push and framework principle agreement. This simultaneously explores what are our best offers period, not exploratory-level talks, and simultaneously smokescreens which team is in the top of the board for Dwight, thus ensuring that there is hopefully more price-driving between the suitors.
I also believe, but here is where I'm guessing more than speculating intelligently, that one of the options on the board is gambling on retaining Dwight and hoping he signs the best max deal back in Orlando (even if only 7 mil more or so, it's more security with one more guaranteed year). Depending how GM Hennigan rolls with this, he could have significant cap space for 2013 and the only other dangerous suitor at the moment is the Hawks (but this sometimes changes for good/worse over the year). The contra-result must obviously and even situationally probable to be expected, which is losing Dwight for nothing (except maybe a TPE, 2nd rounder). Which is the worst "offer," but the most lottery potential for the drafting expert team in Orlando. This is still my main stance with Dwight, but at like 60/40 only, and I have one-two offers in mind when I say I'm 40/60.
However, I think GM Hennigan mainly wants to rebuild the team and bring better FO planning than ever before in Orlando, going towards a team-first culture, with SA/OKC-like drafting and savvy trading that helps the plan, not impede it. My personal input is that I wonder why they care so much about including Turk or Duhon though, who are effectively expiring this season with their respective following seasons unguaranteed. I also view the 3 yr deals of BBD and Jameer as assets and J Rich's deal as the only minor bad contract.
The Net's #6 is out of play, but if they take on J Rich/Duhon and add more picks than the deadline offer, the deal could be only slightly worse than before, depending how many more late 1st picks they can surrender instead of one and what type of contract we will now see with Lopez. Remember Hennigan wasn't here at the deadline, and that goes for every offer at the deadline if it was better than now this summer. I think Bynum, Curry (if still available), Horford, Lopez are my top 4 most-named rumored players (in around that order) for Dwight deals, but there is injury concerns for all, and I value multiple draft/lottery picks more, than say, Bynum or Lopez on a Magic team carrying the team to the middle of the pack and only gaining 1-2 late lottery picks. There is also the rumors of the Bulls and 76ers' interest in Dwight, but I don't like any of the players/picks-potential personally.
However, despite those four big name players and all the suitors out there, (from what I know here) I'd put the Houston deal on the top of the Magic trade board. They seem to have the most 1st rounders and rookie scaled players to develop and see where they go, and good team salary/roster commitments for intended lottery potential and cap space to rent out for pick(s). If GM Hennigan goes with a Bynum, Horford, Lopez offer over that, I'll roll with that for sure though and trust him (for obvious reasons; he's a qualified NBA GM and I'm not). My hope there would be that GM Hennigan really blows up the roster with stop-gaps and undeveloped players to gets as many, or as highly positioned, lottery picks with Bynum or Horford or Lopez in the paint (or just enough (picks) to warrant a rebuild that finishes as a top 3 team), than he could otherwise gain with the Houston's offer/Or-whatever-is-the-best-and-most-picks offer. This Magic GM crew was built to draft and plan effectively like a top 5 managed team in the whole league, leading the rebuild into a top 3 players' team in the league.
From my armchair analyzing and speculating (and as much as we can know from the media/rumors), I'd say GM Hennigan & Co. rolls with either the Rockets or Lakers offer if they like the negotiated final framework. They're two different lines of thinking, but whichever one Hennigan goes with, they're both A) out West and B) the best in their respective lines of thinking (Best player return? or Best picks/youth return?).
To finalize this typically long post from me, there is a few dark horse type deals that have been mentioned rarely/none that I'd also like to rank in about the following order incase one of them goes down (using contract-impact, ages, playing as factors); OKC (Harden, Perkins, Maynor, picks.). LAC (Blake, DJ, Bledsoe.) GSW (Curry, Bogut (flip) and picks. Or Curry, Barnes, Biedrins, Wright, picks, and GSW 3-ways Bogut with returns for themselves mainly). BOS (Rondo and Sullinger/Fab/picks is the principle offer.). NYK (Carmelo, Chandler, Shumpert is principle.).
just kidding i agree
