2022-2023 Magic Trade and Free Agency Idea Thread III

[jezzerinho]

I proposed the LaMelo trade but honestly the liklihood Cha would be that inept is small. Inept they can certainly do. But that level of inept takes real talent.

Scoot for me just looks like a disappointment waiting to happen. He'll be a good player, but the same way as Bledsoe was or Brunson would be if he had no outside shot.

Good but not amazing, is how i see it so far with him.

[jonbob17]

Few things:

1) i saw 2024-25 projections of salary cap, most people expect it to be around $141M
2) Starting with the 2024-25 salary cap year, any team that is below the minimum salary floor (90% of the cap) on the first day of the regular season will not receive a tax distribution.
3) Only way how Magic could pull off massive free cap space would be if they don't resign anybody from current roster and lose bunch of players in FA, witch simply isn't objective at all
4) Your cap projection has Magic drafting nobody in second round this year, and also nobody in first nor second round next year.
5) all this would only be possible if Magic elect to sign nobody this year, witch would be dumb and crazy.
6) probably most important part, let's say in some crazy scenario Magic somehow save $60-70M in cap space for 2024 and use it all, they would be troat deep in luxury tax by 2026, in repetitive tax in 2027 and probably force to do cost cutoffs in 2028 as Banchero's and Franz max would be filling cap space .


As far as "old farts" goes, i don't know what you expect? Only unrestricted FAs are players who are in late 20s or mid 30s. And bunch of high quality restricted FA that need to be payed big money to be signed. You may not like the list , but you also won't be able to sign majority of them because teams like Lakers, Clippers and Nets wll be out there. I mean, this year FA is apsolute joke. Jeremy Grant , Vincent, Brook Lopez, Westbrook. Guys like Vleet maybe won't even be FAs this year. . Magic have all this cap, and massive and desparate need for specific starting roles ( PG; SG) and almost nobody to use money on. This already happened last summer, where Magic had cap space and ended up resinging Bamba and Gary Harris. One is already gone for nothing. Other might be gone for nothing.


I agree with guy who wrote below, that NBA has pool of 85% of players who are okey players but don't move needle, and whole league is fighting for those 15% who are difference makers. 99% of big contract guys aren't worth money they are making.

Seem contradictory. You are basically saying 85% of the league is interchangeable. 15% of the league determines what teams are good.

Ignoring 2-way contracts, that puts the NBA player population at 390, 15% is 59 players. Basically teams want as many of those 59 players as possible. Seems about right. probably could argue that it's really less than the top 15% of players teams are looking for

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html
65 players make over $20M 17%
78 make between 10M -20M

So if we agree that the best players provide the most value, wouldn't it make sense that they are paid way more than everybody else. If there were no max salary, but still a salary cap. You might see guys like Luka making 80%+ of the cap. On the flip side, 300+ "other" guys in the league making less than $5M

The very best players on max salaries are actually providing excess value.

Every team is chasing the opportunity to pay the best players. The way to extract the most value out of your payroll happens by having the best players at max contracts, and there are three levels of max contracts. Younger players that get good early, are either being paid the max allowed under the rookie scale, or their second contract and the 25% ( the very best can go directly to 35%)

If you are saying that guys like Zack Lavine is getting paid too much at $37M, and you would rather split him into two people, that is probably a fair argument, but he is easily a top 59 player (15%), trading him in for two top 120 guys (interchangeable)

I guess the point here is the very best players top 15-20 is who really decide the best teams. They get paid a lot, but because the limit on salaries they are the values in the league. If you can get one of these guys on a rookie deal, or 1st extension, you have even more excess value.

[pepe1991]

Few things:

1) i saw 2024-25 projections of salary cap, most people expect it to be around $141M
2) Starting with the 2024-25 salary cap year, any team that is below the minimum salary floor (90% of the cap) on the first day of the regular season will not receive a tax distribution.
3) Only way how Magic could pull off massive free cap space would be if they don't resign anybody from current roster and lose bunch of players in FA, witch simply isn't objective at all
4) Your cap projection has Magic drafting nobody in second round this year, and also nobody in first nor second round next year.
5) all this would only be possible if Magic elect to sign nobody this year, witch would be dumb and crazy.
6) probably most important part, let's say in some crazy scenario Magic somehow save $60-70M in cap space for 2024 and use it all, they would be troat deep in luxury tax by 2026, in repetitive tax in 2027 and probably force to do cost cutoffs in 2028 as Banchero's and Franz max would be filling cap space .


As far as "old farts" goes, i don't know what you expect? Only unrestricted FAs are players who are in late 20s or mid 30s. And bunch of high quality restricted FA that need to be payed big money to be signed. You may not like the list , but you also won't be able to sign majority of them because teams like Lakers, Clippers and Nets wll be out there. I mean, this year FA is apsolute joke. Jeremy Grant , Vincent, Brook Lopez, Westbrook. Guys like Vleet maybe won't even be FAs this year. . Magic have all this cap, and massive and desparate need for specific starting roles ( PG; SG) and almost nobody to use money on. This already happened last summer, where Magic had cap space and ended up resinging Bamba and Gary Harris. One is already gone for nothing. Other might be gone for nothing.


I agree with guy who wrote below, that NBA has pool of 85% of players who are okey players but don't move needle, and whole league is fighting for those 15% who are difference makers. 99% of big contract guys aren't worth money they are making.

Seem contradictory. You are basically saying 85% of the league is interchangeable. 15% of the league determines what teams are good.

Ignoring 2-way contracts, that puts the NBA player population at 390, 15% is 59 players. Basically teams want as many of those 59 players as possible. Seems about right. probably could argue that it's really less than the top 15% of players teams are looking for

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html
65 players make over $20M 17%
78 make between 10M -20M

So if we agree that the best players provide the most value, wouldn't it make sense that they are paid way more than everybody else. If there were no max salary, but still a salary cap. You might see guys like Luka making 80%+ of the cap. On the flip side, 300+ "other" guys in the league making less than $5M

The very best players on max salaries are actually providing excess value.

Every team is chasing the opportunity to pay the best players. The way to extract the most value out of your payroll happens by having the best players at max contracts, and there are three levels of max contracts. Younger players that get good early, are either being paid the max allowed under the rookie scale, or their second contract and the 25% ( the very best can go directly to 35%)

If you are saying that guys like Zack Lavine is getting paid too much at $37M, and you would rather split him into two people, that is probably a fair argument, but he is easily a top 59 player (15%), trading him in for two top 120 guys (interchangeable)

I guess the point here is the very best players top 15-20 is who really decide the best teams. They get paid a lot, but because the limit on salaries they are the values in the league. If you can get one of these guys on a rookie deal, or 1st extension, you have even more excess value.

I literally drew 85-15 split out of my a**


There are probably few tears of players

some 10 massive game changers
some 15-20 great complimentary stars
some 20-30 C level supporting level role players/stars
50-60 great role players

And bunch of replacable bodies

[jonbob17]

I literally drew 85-15 split out of my a**


There are probably few tears of players

some 10 massive game changers
some 15-20 great complimentary stars
some 20-30 C level supporting level role players/stars
50-60 great role players

And bunch of replacable bodies

If there were no max salaries it would be really interesting. Would you rather have Luka and 8 relative scrubs or a team with 8 top 75ish players. That would make things a lot more fair for all teams, of course it would never happen, because 90% of the players would see large pay cuts.

Kind of interesting, this is sort of what happened on the PGA tour recently, and kind of the argument for LIV golf. The top 5% of PGA players drive all the revenue, but the payouts are more equally distributed, and the PGA tour has been scrambling with ways to give the best players more $, even though the member based organization is heavily skewed towards average players or the 95%.

[pepe1991]

I literally drew 85-15 split out of my a**


There are probably few tears of players

some 10 massive game changers
some 15-20 great complimentary stars
some 20-30 C level supporting level role players/stars
50-60 great role players

And bunch of replacable bodies

If there were no max salaries it would be really interesting. Would you rather have Luka and 8 relative scrubs or a team with 8 top 75ish players. That would make things a lot more fair for all teams, of course it would never happen, because 90% of the players would see large pay cuts.

Kind of interesting, this is sort of what happened on the PGA tour recently, and kind of the argument for LIV golf. The top 5% of PGA players drive all the revenue, but the payouts are more equally distributed, and the PGA tour has been scrambling with ways to give the best players more $, even though the member based organization is heavily skewed towards average players or the 95%.

Its like tennis, top 5 make all the money, people ranked below top 100 are on povery line (figurativlly).

[MasterGMer]

How many Designated Rookie Max Contracts Extension a team can have? Two? Or unlimited?

[VFX]

Just to add to this conversation…

The only thing Orlando will spend money on is overpaying role players/fringe starters, simply to spend money, OR retaining their drafted guys.

Free agency is not a good source for talent in Orlando otherwise. I’m surprised people following this team forever haven’t learned that by now.

Who was the last real splashy free agent signing? Overpaying Rashard Lewis when Orlando was truly competitive with a top 10 player on the roster.

[89Magicfan]

Just to add to this conversation…

The only thing Orlando will spend money on is overpaying role players/fringe starters, simply to spend money, OR retaining their drafted guys.

Free agency is not a good source for talent in Orlando otherwise. I’m surprised people following this team forever haven’t learned that by now.

Who was the last real splashy free agent signing? Overpaying Rashard Lewis when Orlando was truly competitive with a top 10 player on the roster.

Yup. Get into the playoffs, Paolo and Franz taking a step, you’ll then get the attention of bigger FA’s.

Draft and trades rn.

[zaymon]

Just to add to this conversation…

The only thing Orlando will spend money on is overpaying role players/fringe starters, simply to spend money, OR retaining their drafted guys.

Free agency is not a good source for talent in Orlando otherwise. I’m surprised people following this team forever haven’t learned that by now.

Who was the last real splashy free agent signing? Overpaying Rashard Lewis when Orlando was truly competitive with a top 10 player on the roster.

Yup. Get into the playoffs, Paolo and Franz taking a step, you’ll then get the attention of bigger FA’s.

Draft and trades rn.

Free agent signing has a lot more sense than a trade. We sign only for cap space, which is not that important for us before Franz and Paolo extensions. Trades use assets, and our assets are not that valueable after years of tanking.

[89Magicfan]

Just to add to this conversation…

The only thing Orlando will spend money on is overpaying role players/fringe starters, simply to spend money, OR retaining their drafted guys.

Free agency is not a good source for talent in Orlando otherwise. I’m surprised people following this team forever haven’t learned that by now.

Who was the last real splashy free agent signing? Overpaying Rashard Lewis when Orlando was truly competitive with a top 10 player on the roster.

Yup. Get into the playoffs, Paolo and Franz taking a step, you’ll then get the attention of bigger FA’s.

Draft and trades rn.

Free agent signing has a lot more sense than a trade. We sign only for cap space, which is not that important for us before Franz and Paolo extensions. Trades use assets, and our assets are not that valueable after years of tanking.

This FA is weak so I wouldn’t heavily invest in it. Second, to get good FA’s to come you have to give them a reason to come outside of money. They want to play on a team that’s going to compete.

[zaymon]

Yup. Get into the playoffs, Paolo and Franz taking a step, you’ll then get the attention of bigger FA’s.

Draft and trades rn.

Free agent signing has a lot more sense than a trade. We sign only for cap space, which is not that important for us before Franz and Paolo extensions. Trades use assets, and our assets are not that valueable after years of tanking.

This FA is weak so I wouldn’t heavily invest in it. Second, to get good FA’s to come you have to give them a reason to come outside of money. They want to play on a team that’s going to compete.

FVV, Reaves are good targets. We only need one. Playing next to two rising stars is not a bad reason. We made a huge leap last season despite the injuries.

[jonbob17]

Free agent signing has a lot more sense than a trade. We sign only for cap space, which is not that important for us before Franz and Paolo extensions. Trades use assets, and our assets are not that valueable after years of tanking.

This FA is weak so I wouldn’t heavily invest in it. Second, to get good FA’s to come you have to give them a reason to come outside of money. They want to play on a team that’s going to compete.

FVV, Reaves are good targets. We only need one. Playing next to two rising stars is not a bad reason. We made a huge leap last season despite the injuries.

Reaves checks the boxes. Unfortunately he checks the boxes for a lot of the teams in the same boat as us. He's only 24, can dribble, pass, and shoot, keep the ball moving around. I suspect all the rest of the young teams with space are going to give him a heavy look. Not sure why the Lakers would give up on him either.
He's probably not "worth" 4/96, but seems like he is going to get it, because you got all these young teams with money to spend and no one to spend it on besides old guys. Detroit, Utah, San Antonio, OKC, all look like they could get it on the action.

I know we all want a guard can that can shoot. If we are going to save our money for the next class or the next meaningful FA, I wonder if Russell Westbrook on a one year deal might make some sense. If Fultz is never going to shoot and remain a Magician, there might be no better example of what he could be than Westbrook. Barf, i can't believe i just spoke this into the universe. I had read the Clippers are hoping to bring him back on a league minimum. If we gave him $10M for a year...there are worse back up PGs out there.

[Airgordon00]

Magic trade: Markelle Fultz, #6, #36, 2025 Denver 1st, 2 future 2nds.

Hornets trade: Lamelo Ball

Markelle reunites with coach Clifford and can run his offense the way he likes. They get another solid player at #6 to go along with their #2 pick. Plus some future assets to help them reset their timeline.

We get a young up and coming point guard who fits are timeline and who I think can play really well with the core we have now. Plus we can use the 11th pick to go get a gradey dick or another knock down shooter to add to our second unit. We could look like this next year.

Lamelo, Anthony, MCW
Suggs, Harris
Franz, Dick or whoever we draft at 11, Houstan
Paolo, Isaac, Bol
Wendell, F/A, Wagner

If we could sign Vooch or Brook Lopez and then be ok with being a backup then I’d be hyped. I think this team could make some noise next year and beyond.

Thoughts? Do we need to add more picks?

[VFX]

Magic trade: Markelle Fultz, #6, #36, 2025 Denver 1st, 2 future 2nds.

Hornets trade: Lamelo Ball

Markelle reunites with coach Clifford and can run his offense the way he likes. They get another solid player at #6 to go along with their #2 pick. Plus some future assets to help them reset their timeline.

We get a young up and coming point guard who fits are timeline and who I think can play really well with the core we have now. Plus we can use the 11th pick to go get a gradey dick or another knock down shooter to add to our second unit. We could look like this next year.

Lamelo, Anthony, MCW
Suggs, Harris
Franz, Dick or whoever we draft at 11, Houstan
Paolo, Isaac, Bol
Wendell, F/A, Wagner

If we could sign Vooch or Brook Lopez and then be ok with being a backup then I’d be hyped. I think this team could make some noise next year and beyond.

Thoughts? Do we need to add more picks?

Why does Charlotte trade their best asset for a significantly worse player and a bunch of lower picks?

Scoot is running the offense in that scenario. Not Fultz.

Also, half the league probably outbids Orlando if they are serious about moving Ball.

[zaymon]

Magic trade: Markelle Fultz, #6, #36, 2025 Denver 1st, 2 future 2nds.

Hornets trade: Lamelo Ball

Markelle reunites with coach Clifford and can run his offense the way he likes. They get another solid player at #6 to go along with their #2 pick. Plus some future assets to help them reset their timeline.

We get a young up and coming point guard who fits are timeline and who I think can play really well with the core we have now. Plus we can use the 11th pick to go get a gradey dick or another knock down shooter to add to our second unit. We could look like this next year.

Lamelo, Anthony, MCW
Suggs, Harris
Franz, Dick or whoever we draft at 11, Houstan
Paolo, Isaac, Bol
Wendell, F/A, Wagner

If we could sign Vooch or Brook Lopez and then be ok with being a backup then I’d be hyped. I think this team could make some noise next year and beyond.

Thoughts? Do we need to add more picks?

Clifford resigned after working with Fultz. I am not suggesting that was the reason but still.

[drsd]

There are probably few tears of players

some 10 massive game changers
some 15-20 great complimentary stars
some 20-30 C level supporting level role players/stars
50-60 great role players

And bunch of replacable bodies

Working through your maths. (I averaged your lines, 15-20 great is 17 players)

Players 1-10 are game changers
Players 11-27 are complimentary stars
Players 28-52 are C level supporting level role players/stars
Players 53-108 are great role players
Players 109-450 are bunch of replacable bodies

If we consider that there are 150 starters in the NBA (30 teams x 5 players), this means that you have 100% of bench guys as replaceable. Also in my opinion, players 400-450 are still in the top ~700 basketball players on Earth.

I think I agree with your top-10. And then I would probably double each following chategory.

some 10 massive game changers
some ~40 great complimentary stars
some ~60 C level supporting level role players/stars
some ~120 great role players
And bunch of replacable bodies

That basically account that there are 230 "core" NBA players and a bunch of hanger-on'ers. That seems about correct. It also explains that there are some 200 players at the bottom end of the NBA that teams would like to upgrade. That also sounds about correct.

[jonbob17]

Magic trade: Markelle Fultz, #6, #36, 2025 Denver 1st, 2 future 2nds.

Hornets trade: Lamelo Ball

Markelle reunites with coach Clifford and can run his offense the way he likes. They get another solid player at #6 to go along with their #2 pick. Plus some future assets to help them reset their timeline.

We get a young up and coming point guard who fits are timeline and who I think can play really well with the core we have now. Plus we can use the 11th pick to go get a gradey dick or another knock down shooter to add to our second unit. We could look like this next year.

Lamelo, Anthony, MCW
Suggs, Harris
Franz, Dick or whoever we draft at 11, Houstan
Paolo, Isaac, Bol
Wendell, F/A, Wagner

If we could sign Vooch or Brook Lopez and then be ok with being a backup then I’d be hyped. I think this team could make some noise next year and beyond.

Thoughts? Do we need to add more picks?

Clifford resigned after working with Fultz. I am not suggesting that was the reason but still.

Clifford resigned because the front office wanted him to work on player development and they wanted to work draft positon. Lamelo is oftenf referred to as lazy on defense...like he should be every bit or better a defender than his brother, but hasn't shown it this far.
Only reason to hire Clifford is to get all the effort out of your defense...so far that has not happened in Charlotte, not all of it be Clifford's fault.

Of course, Fultz ain't any/much better when it comes to effort on D side

[jonbob17]

Magic trade: Markelle Fultz, #6, #36, 2025 Denver 1st, 2 future 2nds.

Hornets trade: Lamelo Ball

Markelle reunites with coach Clifford and can run his offense the way he likes. They get another solid player at #6 to go along with their #2 pick. Plus some future assets to help them reset their timeline.

We get a young up and coming point guard who fits are timeline and who I think can play really well with the core we have now. Plus we can use the 11th pick to go get a gradey dick or another knock down shooter to add to our second unit. We could look like this next year.

Lamelo, Anthony, MCW
Suggs, Harris
Franz, Dick or whoever we draft at 11, Houstan
Paolo, Isaac, Bol
Wendell, F/A, Wagner

If we could sign Vooch or Brook Lopez and then be ok with being a backup then I’d be hyped. I think this team could make some noise next year and beyond.

Thoughts? Do we need to add more picks?

I'd say it would probably take #11 either instead or in addition to the Denver. I am not sure that many teams could/would beat that deal. 6 and 11 are really valuable. Fultz has some value.

Look at it from this perspective. MF + 6 + 11 + Denver 1st.....That seems like a pretty good deal for Pick 3. Would Charlotte be in a better position if they were in a position to draft Scoot and Brandon Miller (at 3), than Scoot and Lamelo? In this particular instance maybe they'd trade directly with Portland....who knows what Portland is going to do though.

Something along the lines of Scoot, a Thompson twin, and Hendricks, would be a lot of talent and athleticism injected into a team lacking both.

Guess it depends how they value Scoot, and how the rest of this draft class.

I thought for a while that a healthy Lonzo is the best possible fit for this team, since that doesn't seem like it is ever going to happen, Lamelo might be the next best thing, albeit a more expensive option, both in terms of assets it would take to get him and eventually salary

[jonbob17]

How many Designated Rookie Max Contracts Extension a team can have? Two? Or unlimited?

It is two, but I am pretty sure it has to be an extension at the max 25% for 5 years. My understanding there are some ways around it 1. a 4 year extension would not count toward that definition...OR if you didn't extend a player in advance, and just matched whatever offer in free agency, sort of like Ayton...would assume a structure slightly lower than max would also not count.

[YosemiteSam]

Magic trade: Markelle Fultz, #6, #36, 2025 Denver 1st, 2 future 2nds.

Hornets trade: Lamelo Ball

Markelle reunites with coach Clifford and can run his offense the way he likes. They get another solid player at #6 to go along with their #2 pick. Plus some future assets to help them reset their timeline.

We get a young up and coming point guard who fits are timeline and who I think can play really well with the core we have now. Plus we can use the 11th pick to go get a gradey dick or another knock down shooter to add to our second unit. We could look like this next year.

Lamelo, Anthony, MCW
Suggs, Harris
Franz, Dick or whoever we draft at 11, Houstan
Paolo, Isaac, Bol
Wendell, F/A, Wagner

If we could sign Vooch or Brook Lopez and then be ok with being a backup then I’d be hyped. I think this team could make some noise next year and beyond.

Thoughts? Do we need to add more picks?

I think we'd have to include Suggs instead of Markelle. Then Charlotte can say they got 2 FRP including a high lottery #6, a #5 pick from 2 years ago (Suggs), and future draft capital (Denver '25 FRP)

If they also wanted either this year's #11 or next year's FRP Top 4 protected would you do it?

I don't agree many teams can beat this offer for what they Hornets would be looking for. We have high picks, young talent, and a willingness to pay LaMelo an extension, plus a competitive team that LaMelo would be interested in extending with (theoretically). In OKC he is redundant with Shai, Detroit and Houston are messes, Utah is Utah, and most others have less draft capital, San Antonio could compete with our offer, but I bet they are all in n Wemby and not looking to add other ball dominant talent. IMO this all hinges on if they fall hard for Scoot.