Official Speculation Thread (Pt XII, Mods Close)

[MagicFan41]

Magic Trade:
Ryan Anderson
Jameer Nelson
Jason Richardson
Hedo Turkoglu

Magic Receive:
John Wall
Rashard Lewis
2011 #6 Pick Jan Vesely


Magic 2012 Roster:

Dwight Howard, Justin Harper, Daniel Orton
Rashard Lewis, Glen Davis, Jan Vasely
Quentin Richardson, Earl Clark, DeAndre Liggins
JJ Redick, Von Wafer
John Wall, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith

Wizards Roster:

JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf
Ryan Anderson, Andray Blatche, Trevor Brooker
Nick Young, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Singleton
Jason Richardson, Jordan Crawford, Mo Evans
Jameer Nelson, Shelvin Mack


Shard's contract comes off of the books in 2014, and....
C: Dwight Howard
PF: Justin Harper
SF: Jan Vesely
SG: JJ Redick
PG: John Wall
....is not a bad core of young dudes moving forward.

Not gonna get Dwight to stick around I don't think.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Magic Trade:
Ryan Anderson
Jameer Nelson
Jason Richardson
Hedo Turkoglu

Magic Receive:
John Wall
Rashard Lewis
2011 #6 Pick Jan Vesely


Magic 2012 Roster:

Dwight Howard, Justin Harper, Daniel Orton
Rashard Lewis, Glen Davis, Jan Vasely
Quentin Richardson, Earl Clark, DeAndre Liggins
JJ Redick, Von Wafer
John Wall, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith

Wizards Roster:

JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf
Ryan Anderson, Andray Blatche, Trevor Brooker
Nick Young, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Singleton
Jason Richardson, Jordan Crawford, Mo Evans
Jameer Nelson, Shelvin Mack


Shard's contract comes off of the books in 2014, and....
C: Dwight Howard
PF: Justin Harper
SF: Jan Vesely
SG: JJ Redick
PG: John Wall
....is not a bad core of young dudes moving forward.

hmmm..why would Wash trade Wall and Vasaley again?

[Cigamodnalro]

Because Wash is tired of sucking? They've been horrible, and have not shown any signs of improvement. Wall has arguably taken a step back this season. Vesely is almost entirely out of the rotation.

Also, they lose Rashard's enormous contract, and Hedo's is far more tradeable than Shard's is.

Wall is a steep price to pay, but Jameer Nelson/JRich/Ryno/Turk would make Washington exciting again, especially with Blatch and McGee to compliment.

I don't know that it keeps Dwight in Orlando, but Wall instantly becomes the best teammate Dwight has ever had and the first legitimate point guard in Orlando since, well....Skiles? Derek Harper?.

[InFlames]

this guy knows what he is talking about

If I were the Magics I would prefer additional draft picks over Ellis or Lopez. If Dwight is gone it's time to rebuild from scratch.

Ellis is an expensive undersized SG and Lopez is a soft C that is going to be a RFA this summer not to mention a bad fit with Anderson in the frontcourt.

Flip Lopez for a lottery pick, acquire the NJ and Houston picks and also Marshon Brooks. Trade Big Baby for Humphries' expiring contract. Brooks, Anderson and possibly 4 first round picks in this draft is a nice way to start a rebuild. Assuming ORL would get a high lottery pick in 2013 and this team could be a real contender again in 3-4 years. Adding non franchise types like Ellis and they could be stuck as a fringe playoff team/late lotto team for years without any chance to eventually contend.

That is a good approach if you are sure that Dwight is leaving. Right now, I don't see anyone that is sure on him leaving as there is no evidence one way or the other (accept for magical thinking that tilts the scale for some). Gambling on Dwight staying doesn't actually set us back too far, maybe a year or two, and I personally think that is a more than fair risk if we can actually keep Dwight.

C'mon man, you really don't think there is any evidence for him leaving or staying? You can really just flat out ignore his trade request? I agree we don't know for sure what hes thinking, but saying there is no evidence is just flat out wrong.

[jernigan]

C'mon man, you really don't think there is any evidence for him leaving or staying? You can really just flat out ignore his trade request? I agree we don't know for sure what hes thinking, but saying there is no evidence is just flat out wrong.

Kobe did it and we know how that worked out.

[InFlames]

C'mon man, you really don't think there is any evidence for him leaving or staying? You can really just flat out ignore his trade request? I agree we don't know for sure what hes thinking, but saying there is no evidence is just flat out wrong.

Kobe did it and we know how that worked out.

Ok. Not really sure how this relates to my post.

[ZeusIsLoose]

@ShowardCooper
Warriors continuing push for Dwight Howard deal even without DH commitment to re-signing. Not backing off from risky move, source says.

First off, this is horrible business by GSW. They wont make a run in the playoffs, even if they somehow get there, with an injured Curry who may be sitting out awhile, and Dwight. plus, Dwight will leave them anyways. they should get off this dream horse and just trade Monta to us.

[MoMM]

haha, Wizards trading 2 21 years old guys for our garbage plus Ryan, good one!

[MoMM]

@ShowardCooper
Warriors continuing push for Dwight Howard deal even without DH commitment to re-signing. Not backing off from risky move, source says.

First off, this is horrible business by GSW. They wont make a run in the playoffs, even if they somehow get there, with an injured Curry who may be sitting out awhile, and Dwight. plus, Dwight will leave them anyways. they should get off this dream horse and just trade Monta to us.

And if they trade Curry to us?

[ZeusIsLoose]

@ShowardCooper
Warriors continuing push for Dwight Howard deal even without DH commitment to re-signing. Not backing off from risky move, source says.

First off, this is horrible business by GSW. They wont make a run in the playoffs, even if they somehow get there, with an injured Curry who may be sitting out awhile, and Dwight. plus, Dwight will leave them anyways. they should get off this dream horse and just trade Monta to us.

And if they trade Curry to us?

so you want Grant Hill 2.0???

[Cigamodnalro]

haha, Wizards trading 2 21 years old guys for our garbage plus Ryan, good one!

JRich and Jameer might be our garbage, but they're both above average NBA players and I think executing such a trade turns Washington from a perennial bottom feeder to a legitimate fringe playoff team.

I won't press the issue further, and I realize it'd never happen, but I think if Washington is serious about rebuilding and not just collecting T-6 draft picks every season, they at the very least consider trading their pick from two years ago (who will surely bolt at first opportunity) for an entire starting lineup of established veterans and a fairly high probability of selling some playoff tickets.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Because Wash is tired of sucking? They've been horrible, and have not shown any signs of improvement. Wall has arguably taken a step back this season. Vesely is almost entirely out of the rotation.

Also, they lose Rashard's enormous contract, and Hedo's is far more tradeable than Shard's is.

Wall is a steep price to pay, but Jameer Nelson/JRich/Ryno/Turk would make Washington exciting again, especially with Blatch and McGee to compliment.

I don't know that it keeps Dwight in Orlando, but Wall instantly becomes the best teammate Dwight has ever had and the first legitimate point guard in Orlando since, well....Skiles? Derek Harper?.

Go on...

[ADRajX]

Wow... that Ellis deal is really not that great... unless we get Ellis, Brooks (or Lopez), and Lee [form a starting core of Ellis, Brooks (or Lopez), Ryan, Lee]... but since that's unlikely, I don't see any reason to make that trade... I'd rather have Lopez/Brooks/draft picks and maybe flip Lopez for another player(s) than just trade for Ellis (and I'm a huge fan of Ellis)... a Ellis for Dwight swap is the worst trade ever... but if we're getting Ellis AND Dwight is still on the Magic, then I'm all for the trade obviously

[orlandomanic]

You sign him as an UFA next summer (assuming he opts-out, which I think he will). If you keep this current team as is, send out Hedo+Dwight+maybe even Duhon for Noah+Deng+CJ Watson....then you sign Ryan this summer to somewhere around $8mil/yr (I think that's prob close to what he will get). You keep JJ, Jameer and let them, along with Watson expire in Summer 2013. On the books that summer you have:

Noah - $12.1
Deng - $14.3
Ryan - ~$8.0
BBD - $6.4
JRich - $6.2
Q - $2.8 (if he picks up his option)

That's $49.8 mil. The cap that year would probably be somewhere in the range of $65mil or so. Throw in some cap-holds for rookies and such, prob adds an extra few million. You could still have the ability to cut-and-stretch BBD or JRich to free up a few more million at that point, as well as possibly trading Q. But even in the worst-case-scenario you probably have around $11mil/yr to offer Monta to start....best case scenario around $15mil/yr and he probably won't command anywhere near that.

Ryan is going to get way more than 8 million if he keeps averaging 18ppg - 20ppg.

if the economy is still bad, the cap won't be raised to 65 million.

[MagicFan41]

You sign him as an UFA next summer (assuming he opts-out, which I think he will). If you keep this current team as is, send out Hedo+Dwight+maybe even Duhon for Noah+Deng+CJ Watson....then you sign Ryan this summer to somewhere around $8mil/yr (I think that's prob close to what he will get). You keep JJ, Jameer and let them, along with Watson expire in Summer 2013. On the books that summer you have:

Noah - $12.1
Deng - $14.3
Ryan - ~$8.0
BBD - $6.4
JRich - $6.2
Q - $2.8 (if he picks up his option)

That's $49.8 mil. The cap that year would probably be somewhere in the range of $65mil or so. Throw in some cap-holds for rookies and such, prob adds an extra few million. You could still have the ability to cut-and-stretch BBD or JRich to free up a few more million at that point, as well as possibly trading Q. But even in the worst-case-scenario you probably have around $11mil/yr to offer Monta to start....best case scenario around $15mil/yr and he probably won't command anywhere near that.

Ryan is going to get way more than 8 million if he keeps averaging 18ppg - 20ppg.

if the economy is still bad, the cap won't be raised to 65 million.

I'm not convinced that other teams are going to be willing to pony up $10mil+ per yr for Ryan after a 1-yr contract-year performance, with still limited defensive/post abilities. Not everyone is as high on Ryan as we are. Many believe he may still be a product of the Dwight system. So I'm not sure he will get that much more to be honest. Which teams have cap this summer? Dallas (already have Dirk), Boston (they might be the ones to offer him the most), Indy (already have D-West), Sacramento (already have Cousins)....who is going to be offering Ryan $10+mil a year this summer? I'm serious, give me a team name. I'm curious. The cap is going to probably be at like $62 mil at the lowest I think. The economy is already turning around, will be better in 2 years, and NBA revenues are doing quite well around the league. Either way, my point is that you could realistically have a core of Monta+Deng+Noah+Ryan if you wanted to make it work. It might be a close fit, might have to make a trade to get rid of Q, and maybe cut/stretch BBD, but it could be done. Certainly not a crazy thought by any means is my point.

[Def Swami]

Trading Dwight for Monta has no chance of happening. On to the next one....

[magicman123]

You sign him as an UFA next summer (assuming he opts-out, which I think he will). If you keep this current team as is, send out Hedo+Dwight+maybe even Duhon for Noah+Deng+CJ Watson....then you sign Ryan this summer to somewhere around $8mil/yr (I think that's prob close to what he will get). You keep JJ, Jameer and let them, along with Watson expire in Summer 2013. On the books that summer you have:

Noah - $12.1
Deng - $14.3
Ryan - ~$8.0
BBD - $6.4
JRich - $6.2
Q - $2.8 (if he picks up his option)

That's $49.8 mil. The cap that year would probably be somewhere in the range of $65mil or so. Throw in some cap-holds for rookies and such, prob adds an extra few million. You could still have the ability to cut-and-stretch BBD or JRich to free up a few more million at that point, as well as possibly trading Q. But even in the worst-case-scenario you probably have around $11mil/yr to offer Monta to start....best case scenario around $15mil/yr and he probably won't command anywhere near that.

Ryan is going to get way more than 8 million if he keeps averaging 18ppg - 20ppg.

if the economy is still bad, the cap won't be raised to 65 million.

hes averaging 16.1pts, so i doubt he finishes close to 18-20ppg this year

[MagicFan41]

Trading Dwight for Monta has no chance of happening. On to the next one....

Not too many people are really suggesting to trade Dwight for Monta. I wouldn't say the organization, though, if they HAVE to trade Dwight, would be completely opposed to bringing in Monta with a bunch of other pieces. Nor would I.

If you could do something like:

Monta
Brooks
Wright
Ryan
Lee

plus NJ pick

....that could be something to think about building on. An upgrade at the 2,3 on MUCH smaller contracts. A huge upgrade at the 1 on a slightly more expensive contract. Obviously a downgrade at C, but that's gonna happen no matter what if Dwight leaves. You would then have some very tradeable pieces, as well as a nice pick, and prob some cap-relief in a year or so.

[The Real Dalic]

Wow... that Ellis deal is really not that great... unless we get Ellis, Brooks (or Lopez), and Lee [form a starting core of Ellis, Brooks (or Lopez), Ryan, Lee]... but since that's unlikely, I don't see any reason to make that trade... I'd rather have Lopez/Brooks/draft picks and maybe flip Lopez for another player(s) than just trade for Ellis (and I'm a huge fan of Ellis)... a Ellis for Dwight swap is the worst trade ever... but if we're getting Ellis AND Dwight is still on the Magic, then I'm all for the trade obviously

I agree.

[Def Swami]

Chris Broussard ‏ @Chris_Broussard
Nothing's changed in Phoenix: Suns still not trading Steve Nash unless he asks for it, sources say. And he won't.

I fear that the Magic may make no moves at all.