Who do you want us to take at #1?

[jonbob17]

Pretty good article. Right now I’m torn between Paolo and Chet.

Really wish we had more info on Sharpe.

If you like that read here is a brief one from the same guy on sharpe. Note that Sharpe measured in combine at 6'4.25 with a 6'11.5 wingspan.

https://deanondraft.com/2022/04/26/lets-talk-about-4/

Kobe and MJ measured 6'6, but that was probably shoes for both of them. Both were probably 6'5". Certainly not saying Sharpe is either of those guys, but his standing vertical said to be 49" eclipsing jordan record.

[basketballRob]

Let's just pretend Chet and J are the exact same player (skills wise) - who is more marketable to help Orlando (which used to be a house hold name many many many years ago) become somewhat relevant again in the world of Mickey Mouse, small market, decade of tanking basketball?

Banchero has the most swag, Jabari is the most humble, and Chet is the most confident.

At the end of the day we have to win before anyone will notice.



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[UCF]

I would consider trading back a pick or two to pick up assets with this draft class.

[jezzerinho]

This is a pretty interesting piece coming up with comps for Paolo, and discuss Jabari and Chet(briefly)

https://deanondraft.com/2022/03/24/where-does-paolo-banchero-fit-in-the-modern-nba-and-2022-draft/

I am still hoping the Magic FO are 100% on who they want. Me, i can. be talked into any of the top 3.

Dream scenario for me(since i am not 100% on anyone). Con OKC that we are taking Chet as bpa, and trade 1 for 2&12, then trade 2 for 3&future picks.

Draft whoever is left over at 3. Hope one of AJ Griffin, Sochan, or Dyson Daniels is there at 12...
Yah, I know trades rarely happen, counting on 2 (or more) is silly, but hey we're a month away...gotta speculate about something.

FWIW that writer probably highest person I saw on Franz last year(4 overall), and really sold me on Franz

There's quite a bit of confirmation bias humming off that piece, but it's food for thought.

Option 1: No1 overall Offense with 2nd Rd Defence. Athletically average

Option 2: Top 10 offense and Top 5 defence. Athletically slightly above average

Option 3: Top 3 offense and tip 3 defence. Athletically below average/problematic

Pick your poison!

[jonbob17]

There's quite a bit of confirmation bias humming off that piece, but it's food for thought.

Option 1: No1 overall Offense with 2nd Rd Defence. Athletically average

Option 2: Top 10 offense and Top 5 defence. Athletically slightly above average

Option 3: Top 3 offense and tip 3 defence. Athletically below average/problematic

Pick your poison!

I feel like this time of year we tear people down more than what we say they can do well. Like last year Cade wasn't athletic enough to get anywhere in the NBA. Mobley too skinny and cant shoot. Barnes really bad shooter and cant create his own shot.

No one is a finished product at this age, and are hopefully continuously improving until their peak like 7 years down the road. Average athletically in the NBA i am not sure should be seen as a detriment if there are others skills in play.

[Skin]

Coming to the realization that I would be satisfied with either Chet or Jabari. Do not want Paolo.

Today I favor Jabari. We have an elite inside defender in a healthy Isaac. Jabari would give us an elite outside defender. That kind of combination is the kind that builds championship contenders. The other guys we have are not slouches on D either, but building this type of team would give us a massive advantage. Suggs, Wagner, Okeke and even WCj (according to Knightro's data haha) are good defenders. If we can be bullies on defense that would change the perception that people have for the Magic.

Combine that with his shooting and dunking, Jabari might not be a #1 go to scorer, but he can pop off on any giving night.... are the Warriors complaining about Klay not being a #1 go to scorer? Jabari is the same. With Jabari we are not strictly drafting BPA or based on need. We are doing both.

Min Per Game Estimates

PG Markelle Fultz 24 / Cole Anthony 16 / Jalen Suggs 8
SG Jabari Smith 20 / Jalen Suggs 16 / RJ Hampton 12
SF Franz Wagner 30 / Jabari Smith 10 / Chuma Okeke 8
PF Jonathan Isaac 24 / Mo Wagner 12 / Chuma Okeke 12
C Wendell Carter Jr 32 / Jonathan Isaac 8 / Mo Wagner 8

[swarlesbarkley]

Coming to the realization that I would be satisfied with either Chet or Jabari. Do not want Paolo.

Today I favor Jabari. We have an elite inside defender in a healthy Isaac. Jabari would give us an elite outside defender. That kind of combination is the kind that builds championship contenders. The other guys we have are not slouches on D either, but building this type of team would give us a massive advantage. Suggs, Wagner, Okeke and even WCj (according to Knightro's data haha) are good defenders. If we can be bullies on defense that would change the perception that people have for the Magic.

Combine that with his shooting and dunking, Jabari might not be a #1 go to scorer, but he can pop off on any giving night.... are the Warriors complaining about Klay not being a #1 go to scorer? Jabari is the same. With Jabari we are not strictly drafting BPA or based on need. We are doing both.

Min Per Game Estimates

PG Markelle Fultz 24 / Cole Anthony 16 / Jalen Suggs 8
SG Jabari Smith 20 / Jalen Suggs 16 / RJ Hampton 12
SF Franz Wagner 30 / Jabari Smith 10 / Chuma Okeke 8
PF Jonathan Isaac 24 / Mo Wagner 12 / Chuma Okeke 12
C Wendell Carter Jr 32 / Jonathan Isaac 8 / Mo Wagner 8

IMO I think it's fool's gold to put any sort of expectation that JI is back to being an elite inside defender and also that he can play anything close to starter minutes. Dude has played something like 20 minutes of game time in what will be 30+ months.

I would prefer Jabari at the #2 if we pick him - hopefully that's a real position he can play.

[basketballRob]

I don't see any reason why you couldn't play Franz, Isaac, and Jabari together with a PG and Center.

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[Skin]

Coming to the realization that I would be satisfied with either Chet or Jabari. Do not want Paolo.

Today I favor Jabari. We have an elite inside defender in a healthy Isaac. Jabari would give us an elite outside defender. That kind of combination is the kind that builds championship contenders. The other guys we have are not slouches on D either, but building this type of team would give us a massive advantage. Suggs, Wagner, Okeke and even WCj (according to Knightro's data haha) are good defenders. If we can be bullies on defense that would change the perception that people have for the Magic.

Combine that with his shooting and dunking, Jabari might not be a #1 go to scorer, but he can pop off on any giving night.... are the Warriors complaining about Klay not being a #1 go to scorer? Jabari is the same. With Jabari we are not strictly drafting BPA or based on need. We are doing both.

Min Per Game Estimates

PG Markelle Fultz 24 / Cole Anthony 16 / Jalen Suggs 8
SG Jabari Smith 20 / Jalen Suggs 16 / RJ Hampton 12
SF Franz Wagner 30 / Jabari Smith 10 / Chuma Okeke 8
PF Jonathan Isaac 24 / Mo Wagner 12 / Chuma Okeke 12
C Wendell Carter Jr 32 / Jonathan Isaac 8 / Mo Wagner 8

IMO I think it's fool's gold to put any sort of expectation that JI is back to being an elite inside defender and also that he can play anything close to starter minutes. Dude has played something like 20 minutes of game time in what will be 30+ months.

I would prefer Jabari at the #2 if we pick him - hopefully that's a real position he can play.

Regardless he's gonna get that chance. After 2 seasons he should be playing like he has a brand new knee.

[KillMonger]

Let's just pretend Chet and J are the exact same player (skills wise) - who is more marketable to help Orlando (which used to be a house hold name many many many years ago) become somewhat relevant again in the world of Mickey Mouse, small market, decade of tanking basketball?

Banchero has the most swag, Jabari is the most humble, and Chet is the most confident.

At the end of the day we have to win before anyone will notice.



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Curious out of the 3, at their very best who would you think will impact winning the most?

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[Black and Blue]

Heat Maps from cbbanalytics




I think the thing that stands out here. On Chet how few midrangers he took. You think of a skinny center who can't bully his way into the post he would end up settling for mid range turn arounds. Also his trailing three is pretty evident

Wow these are great. Thanks for posting.
What I get from these:

1) Jabari’s efficiency around the rim is even worse than I thought. Definitely needs to be a developmental focus if he is the pick.
2) Chet’s midrange game is a gigantic question mark. If I’m bringing him in for a workout that’s what I’m checking first and foremost.
3) Banchero always struck me as a jack-of-all-trades yet master of none type. This does lean that direction a bit.

Obviously all will need development, but this sort of imaging showcases the starting points. If anything this makes me like Chet a little more than I did as he seems to be a blend of overall efficiency and willingness to bang down low. If he is hiding a decent midrange game, he could be special. The greats that he could emulate - Nowitzki and Duncan - both had fantastic midrange games to keep opposing teams unable to guard them.

[ibraheim718]

This isn't hard. If you project all 3 players ceilings which one has the highest ceiling? That's Chet. Take him and forget about safety, floors, fit, and needs.

[fendilim]

Has anyone posted a shot chart on their percentages on catch and shoot, isolation, off the dribble?

[MoGrAdY]

Heat Maps from cbbanalytics




I think the thing that stands out here. On Chet how few midrangers he took. You think of a skinny center who can't bully his way into the post he would end up settling for mid range turn arounds. Also his trailing three is pretty evident

Wow these are great. Thanks for posting.
What I get from these:

1) Jabari’s efficiency around the rim is even worse than I thought. Definitely needs to be a developmental focus if he is the pick.
2) Chet’s midrange game is a gigantic question mark. If I’m bringing him in for a workout that’s what I’m checking first and foremost.
3) Banchero always struck me as a jack-of-all-trades yet master of none type. This does lean that direction a bit.

Obviously all will need development, but this sort of imaging showcases the starting points. If anything this makes me like Chet a little more than I did as he seems to be a blend of overall efficiency and willingness to bang down low. If he is hiding a decent midrange game, he could be special. The greats that he could emulate - Nowitzki and Duncan - both had fantastic midrange games to keep opposing teams unable to guard them.

This. With the fact Chet is a successful FT shooter and 3 pt shooter I fully would expect his mid range game is nice.

[Magic4champ]

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[ogmagicfan]

Heat Maps from cbbanalytics




I think the thing that stands out here. On Chet how few midrangers he took. You think of a skinny center who can't bully his way into the post he would end up settling for mid range turn arounds. Also his trailing three is pretty evident

Wow these are great. Thanks for posting.
What I get from these:

1) Jabari’s efficiency around the rim is even worse than I thought. Definitely needs to be a developmental focus if he is the pick.
2) Chet’s midrange game is a gigantic question mark. If I’m bringing him in for a workout that’s what I’m checking first and foremost.
3) Banchero always struck me as a jack-of-all-trades yet master of none type. This does lean that direction a bit.

Obviously all will need development, but this sort of imaging showcases the starting points. If anything this makes me like Chet a little more than I did as he seems to be a blend of overall efficiency and willingness to bang down low. If he is hiding a decent midrange game, he could be special. The greats that he could emulate - Nowitzki and Duncan - both had fantastic midrange games to keep opposing teams unable to guard them.

This. With the fact Chet is a successful FT shooter and 3 pt shooter I fully would expect his mid range game is nice.

Chet is a 71% FT Shooter. If anything that raises questions about his shot being as great as marketed. Along with only making 1.3 3's a game mostly against the WCC, he hasn't shown the volume jump shooting wise to warrant assurences about that side of his game being something he'll be able to lean on heavy coming into the league.

When it comes to the Nowitski's & Duncan's of the world, they had to use their size and strength to get positioning in mid range. I suspect Chet would struggle to do so until he adds more weight and is why he didn't do so in college. Jabari on the other hand had demonstrated a complete back to the basket mid range game.

[OrlandoNed]

My take aways from Chet's shot chart:

Aside from at the rim and the top of the arc for 3 he provides very little from anywhere else. He hasn't shown to be a prolific outside shooter given how little he shoots from 3 in college. I think defenses will just give him the 3 and let him try to get into the paint. I don't see him being successful often while attacking the paint. He's not gonna outmuscle and bully his way in due to his lack of strength and I doubt anyone matched against him will be outsped by him either. Also from a scouting video I've seen, he often gets stripped of the ball when he drives because of his high dribble (due to just being tall) and weak arms.

TLDR: Infrequently shoots from 3 from a single spot, shown no midrange, thrives in paint against non-NBA quality defenders where his mediocre athleticism is enough to succeed.

[KillMonger]

I'm already getting tired of waiting, the draft can't get here fast enough....some people giving their scouting reports and with some of the things said I wonder if they really watched the games...stats and the eye test have to go hand in hand imo

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