Markelle Fultz Updates Thread

[MagicStarwipe]

Depends how you create. Vuc is a better creator than both and he isn't a driver. AG is 3rd on the team in assists while being 10th in usage. AG when he is not going into his And1 mixtape bag of dribbling so he can shoot a fade away is a better passer. I don't think you have to be a Evan hater, a AG lover, a Evan lover, a AG hater or JFK conspiracist to see that.

Yea, but Vucevic creates mostly from 2/5 PnR-PnPop actions where he's facilitating from the mid/high post.

It doesn't matter if Gordon can thread a needle with his eyes closed, if he can't break through set half court defenses it doesn't matter. I'd love nothing more than for AG to be a capable on-ball wing, but sadly he's not. We've seen it fail at volume for 3 straight seasons, and this year it has somehow looked even worse.

Fournier isn't a highlight-reel-handles type of driver, but he overachieves by savvy use of speed shifts and angles to contort through seams and screens that allows him to drive effectively. Its not pretty highlight reel material, but it still works.

I like Evan driving out of close outs or curling around a screen. Not so much out of pick and roll. With our personnel nobody should be doing too much handling other than Fultz. The ball has to move.

[ezzzp]

Depends how you create. Vuc is a better creator than both and he isn't a driver. AG is 3rd on the team in assists while being 10th in usage. AG when he is not going into his And1 mixtape bag of dribbling so he can shoot a fade away is a better passer. I don't think you have to be a Evan hater, a AG lover, a Evan lover, a AG hater or JFK conspiracist to see that.

Yea, but Vucevic creates mostly from 2/5 PnR-PnPop actions where he's facilitating from the mid/high post.

It doesn't matter if Gordon can thread a needle with his eyes closed, if he can't break through set half court defenses it doesn't matter. I'd love nothing more than for AG to be a capable on-ball wing, but sadly he's not. We've seen it fail at volume for 3 straight seasons, and this year it has somehow looked even worse.

Fournier isn't a highlight-reel-handles type of driver, but he overachieves by savvy use of speed shifts and angles to contort through seams and screens that allows him to drive effectively. Its not pretty highlight reel material, but it still works.

I like Evan driving out of close outs or curling around a screen. Not so much out of pick and roll. With our personnel nobody should be doing too much handling other than Fultz. The ball has to move.

Hopefully with Fultz, he's in that role. There definitely needs to be less roaming dribbles by everyone, attack the rim or swing the ball.

[Knightro]

The Magic rank 8th in total FGA's with defender +6' away. They are getting a ton of wide open looks that they are missing. The Magic are 31-102 (.304 3P%) on wide open 3's and most of those looks are from players that can make those shots. They are also missing a ton of easy shots at the rim (54% at point blank range - 29th in NBA).

It’s hard to be optimistic in times like these, but this is as close to a reason for optimism as you’re going to get.

As ezzzp said, 23% of the Magic’s total field goal attempts are considered wide open which is 8th most in the league. They’re shooting just 29% on these shots which is dead last in the league.

The Magic last year were 9th in wide open FGAs, but shot 40% on them which was good for 10th best in the league.

Middle of the pack right now on wide open FG% in the NBA is 36%.

Doesn’t seem like a big difference but that 6% drop is 9 extra points on the floor.

Considering the Magic have lost two games by 4, those extra points lost on wide open shots alone could be the difference between 4-2 and 2-4.

If they were shooting at last year’s levels, which when looking at guys and their career stats doesn’t seem too outrageous to assume could be replicated, the gap jumps even further to 14 points lost.

We can bag incessantly on Clifford and his offense and the front office and their personnel moves, but this seems like a much simpler thing than we realize.

These players just have to make more of the open shots they’re getting. Period.

[Knightro]

Fultz definitely isn’t helping with the wide open numbers compared to Grant a year ago, but the bigger culprits are Vucevic (by a wide margin) and Fournier. Ross and Augustin are also down significantly.

Last Year Wide Open 3s per Game + Percentages
Fournier 2.8 taken at 41.3%
Gordon 2.7 taken at 38.2%
Isaac 2.4 taken at 32.4%
Vucevic 2.4 taken at 39.9%
Augustin 2.0 taken at 48.7%
Ross 1.6 taken at 44.7%
Bamba 1.2 taken at 30.9%
MCW 1.2 taken at 23.4%
Simmons 1.0 taken at 30.0%
Grant 1.0 taken at 39.0%

This Year Wide Open 3s per Game + Percentages
Vucevic 3.5 at 19% (-20.9%)
Isaac 2.8 at 41.2% (+8.8%)
Fultz 2.3 at 21.4% (-17.6% from Grant)
Fournier 2.2 at 23.1% (-18.2%)
Gordon 1.8 at 45.5% (+7.3%)
Bamba 1.6 at 37.5% (+6.6%)
Ross 1.0 at 33.3% (-11.4%)
MCW 1.0 at 25% (+1.6%)
Augustin 0.8 at 40% (-8.7%)

[pepe1991]

Ross wracks offense because he shoots 6-39 being focused down.
He is 1-19 from 3 when defenders stick to him, yet keeps jacking them.

[swarlesbarkley]

The Magic rank 8th in total FGA's with defender +6' away. They are getting a ton of wide open looks that they are missing. The Magic are 31-102 (.304 3P%) on wide open 3's and most of those looks are from players that can make those shots. They are also missing a ton of easy shots at the rim (54% at point blank range - 29th in NBA).

It’s hard to be optimistic in times like these, but this is as close to a reason for optimism as you’re going to get.

Or defenses are letting us take wide open shots because they know we won't make them unless it's Ross? Game plan against Orlando: take away the drives, the easy Vuc buckets, and stick to Ross. Let us shoot open shots from 18 ft and beyond. Game over, we score less than 90 points.

I know it's nice to think Vuc and Ross will turn it around but they could also not. Making $100 million really takes away the hurt from low shooting percentages.

Silver lining is AG and JI are making the wide open shots more compared to last year and Fultz is still shooting and on the court.

[Knightro]

Or defenses are letting us take wide open shots because they know we won't make them unless it's Ross? Game plan against Orlando: take away the drives, the easy Vuc buckets, and stick to Ross. Let us shoot open shots from 18 ft and beyond. Game over, we score less than 90 points.

I know it's nice to think Vuc and Ross will turn it around but they could also not. Making $100 million really takes away the hurt from low shooting percentages.

I want to again stress this.

It would be unprecedented for a team to shoot THIS badly on wide open shots over the course of a whole season.

Since NBA.com started tracking shooting by zone back in 2013-2014, the single lowest any NBA has *ever* shot on wide open shots for a whole season is 34.2%

The Magic are shooting 29% on wide open shots so far.

If you truly believe Terrence Ross, a career 42% FG 37% 3PT guy, is going to shoot 27% FG, 19% 3PT for the whole season...

If you truly believe Nik Vucevic, a career 50% FG, 33% 3PT guy, is going to shoot 43% FG, 21% 3PT for the whole season...

[swarlesbarkley]

Or defenses are letting us take wide open shots because they know we won't make them unless it's Ross? Game plan against Orlando: take away the drives, the easy Vuc buckets, and stick to Ross. Let us shoot open shots from 18 ft and beyond. Game over, we score less than 90 points.

I know it's nice to think Vuc and Ross will turn it around but they could also not. Making $100 million really takes away the hurt from low shooting percentages.

I want to again stress this.

It would be unprecedented for a team to shoot THIS badly on wide open shots over the course of a whole season.

Since NBA.com started tracking shooting by zone back in 2013-2014, the single lowest any NBA has *ever* shot on wide open shots for a whole season is 34.2%

The Magic are shooting 29% on wide open shots so far.

If you truly believe Terrence Ross, a career 42% FG 37% 3PT guy, is going to shoot 27% FG, 19% 3PT for the whole season...

If you truly believe Nik Vucevic, a career 50% FG, 33% 3PT guy, is going to shoot 43% FG, 21% 3PT for the whole season...

Yes, I know it's not likely. But there's a chance that those guys got what they wanted last year (playoffs, all-star for Vuc, big pay day) and now they aren't putting in the same work as they had in the past.

Or maybe they know with our roster construction that no matter how many or few shots they hit it won't matter much.

Or maybe they keep missing and they spiral and hit a mental block.

Separate discussion:
Even if they get back to their career averages, do we make the playoffs? I think they need to play significantly better than their career averages to have a successful season as a team unless Fultz becomes an all-star in the next month.

[Knightro]

Even if they get back to their career averages, do we make the playoffs? I think they need to play significantly better than their career averages to have a successful season as a team unless Fultz becomes an all-star in the next month.

100 million percent, yes.

Let's break it down...

Atlanta game - lost by 4
Ross shot 13% from the field and 17% from 3PT
Vucevic shot 37% from the field and 0% from 3PT

Either one of them shoots to the level of their career worst season and that's a win.

Raptors game - lost by 9
Ross shot 36% from the field and 13% from 3PT
Vucevic shot 8% from the field and 33% from 3PT

If just Vucevic shoots to the level of his career worst season and that's a win.

Bucks game - lost by 32
This one wouldn't have changed

Nuggets game - lost by 4
Vucevic shot well and Ross shot normal, this one wouldn't have changed.

So if Vucevic and Ross simply shot like they did in their career worst seasons (Ross' career worst season is 40% from the field and 32% from 3PT. Vucevic's career worst season is 47% FG and 31% 3PT) the Magic are 4-2 instead of 2-4 and no one is feeling all that upset with the way things are right now.

[fendilim]

I think one thing we have to consider is no team is going to be sleeping on us cause we were a playoff team last year, and we kinda have a tag of being a good defensive team.

[swarlesbarkley]

Even if they get back to their career averages, do we make the playoffs? I think they need to play significantly better than their career averages to have a successful season as a team unless Fultz becomes an all-star in the next month.

100 million percent, yes.

Let's break it down...

Atlanta game - lost by 4
Ross shot 13% from the field and 17% from 3PT
Vucevic shot 37% from the field and 0% from 3PT

Either one of them shoots to the level of their career worst season and that's a win.

Raptors game - lost by 9
Ross shot 36% from the field and 13% from 3PT
Vucevic shot 8% from the field and 33% from 3PT

If just Vucevic shoots to the level of his career worst season and that's a win.

Bucks game - lost by 32
This one wouldn't have changed

Nuggets game - lost by 4
Vucevic shot well and Ross shot normal, this one wouldn't have changed.

So if Vucevic and Ross simply shot like they did in their career worst seasons (Ross' career worst season is 40% from the field and 32% from 3PT. Vucevic's career worst season is 47% FG and 31% 3PT) the Magic are 4-2 instead of 2-4 and no one is feeling all that upset with the way things are right now.

Appreciate the breakdown. Good points.

The Nuggets game still scares me though. Vuc and Ross played fine and we still only scored 87 points in a loss. Small sample size, but basically they need to play great to get a win or we need an unexpected scorer (DJ/Evan weren't enough in ATL, JI wasn't enough vs TOR) to step to win.

[Knightro]

Appreciate the breakdown. Good points.

The Nuggets game still scares me though. Vuc and Ross played fine and we still only scored 87 points in a loss. Small sample size, but basically they need to play great to get a win or we need an unexpected scorer (DJ/Evan weren't enough in ATL, JI wasn't enough vs TOR) to step to win.

That one is a bit of an outlier, but it was a weird game in general.

The Magic only shot 11 FTs, which is a comically low number even for them.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Or defenses are letting us take wide open shots because they know we won't make them unless it's Ross? Game plan against Orlando: take away the drives, the easy Vuc buckets, and stick to Ross. Let us shoot open shots from 18 ft and beyond. Game over, we score less than 90 points.

I know it's nice to think Vuc and Ross will turn it around but they could also not. Making $100 million really takes away the hurt from low shooting percentages.

I want to again stress this.

It would be unprecedented for a team to shoot THIS badly on wide open shots over the course of a whole season.

Since NBA.com started tracking shooting by zone back in 2013-2014, the single lowest any NBA has *ever* shot on wide open shots for a whole season is 34.2%

The Magic are shooting 29% on wide open shots so far.

If you truly believe Terrence Ross, a career 42% FG 37% 3PT guy, is going to shoot 27% FG, 19% 3PT for the whole season...

If you truly believe Nik Vucevic, a career 50% FG, 33% 3PT guy, is going to shoot 43% FG, 21% 3PT for the whole season...

Yes, I know it's not likely. But there's a chance that those guys got what they wanted last year (playoffs, all-star for Vuc, big pay day) and now they aren't putting in the same work as they had in the past.

Stop it. Theres no chance in hell that they continue shooting this poorly or that they've decided to mail it in because they got new contracts. This is nothing more than a slump that will likely rectify itself as the season progresses. Will it translate to wins? Who knows but I doubt that Ross and Vuc are going to shoot 19 PERCENT and 21% PERCENT respectively.

[basketballRob]

Ross wracks offense because he shoots 6-39 being focused down.
He is 1-19 from 3 when defenders stick to him, yet keeps jacking them.

He's probably still our best 3 pt shooter.

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[PrimeThyme]

Read on Twitter

Not a bad list to be on.

[thelead]

Read on Twitter

Not a bad list to be on.

But hey, let’s take a 3 when we’re down 1, amirite?

[J-Mezzy]

This guy looks so good when attacking the rim...yet he doesn't di it that often

Are we holding him back or is he not attacking?

[Mauro Pedrosa]

Read on Twitter

Not a bad list to be on.

Derrick Rose is exactly who Fultz reminds me of. Herky jerky game, not a great outside shooter but can improve.

Not usually my type of PG (I love great shooters), but I'm really liking what I see from Fultz

[J-Mezzy]

I can't believe Cliff benched him when we were at our best in the 3rd. Truly a wtf moment

[fendilim]

This guy looks so good when attacking the rim...yet he doesn't di it that often

Are we holding him back or is he not attacking?

I'm sure he is also aware that he should be attacking the rim, but when defenders are simply sagging off on him and waiting for him to attack the rim, its easier said than done.