Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread II

[eyriq]

I didn't really make a clear point. My point is that with three young players out of the rotation and only one spot opened up by off-season moves (Fultz and Ingles out, KCP in), Harris and Cole are on the hot seat.

At least one of AB, Jett, and Tristan are getting minutes. What's the probability that two of them are in? All three?

At least one of them getting minutes I'm putting at 99% probability. Sorry Caleb.

Two of them at 49%.

Three of them at 5%.

i don't think harris is a lock, we literally got a better harris in KCP....in my mind

Fultz-AB
Harris-Jett
Ingles-Tristan

then again, my perspective is biased since i'm all the way out on Gary "cardio" Harris

I'm with you on Harris! My hope is that the new contract comes with a new role as a 3rd string shooting guard. I think it's a coin flip at this point.

There is a real chance that Mosley values 48 mins of KCP/Harris at shooting guard. They are very similar players.

The thing is that AB and Harris played similar roles last season, and while Harris was marginally better it was debatable. This was against a rookie, playing a different role from the one he played in college. So it isn't like there is overwhelming evidence supporting Harris, and AB is only getting better.

The hope is that AB's role is expanded to include more playmaking.

[Knightro]

I can't see this franchise spending almost $1 billion on 3 players when they won't even spend the money to televise all their preseason games.

There are minimum spending limits mandated by the CBA though.

It's certainly possible that the Magic's ownership might not be super willing to live deep into the luxury tax - although if they have sure fire title contender I think they will - but ultimately I'm not too worried about it.

Also... the family purchased the team for $85M and could sell it for $3B tomorrow if they wanted to.

[Knightro]

I'm with you on Harris! My hope is that the new contract comes with a new role as a 3rd string shooting guard. I think it's a coin flip at this point.

There is a real chance that Mosley values 48 mins of KCP/Harris at shooting guard. They are very similar players.

The thing is that AB and Harris played similar roles last season, and while Harris was marginally better it was debatable. This was against a rookie, playing a different role from the one he played in college. So it isn't like there is overwhelming evidence supporting Harris, and AB is only getting better.

The hope is that AB's role is expanded to include more playmaking.

The thing is...

Gary Harris *wasn't* marginally better. He was significantly better. And I say that with the full and complete understanding that most 20 year olds are expectedly bad and Harris *should* have been better. But make no mistake, Gary was a lot more impactful to winning basketball games last year than Black was.

EPM
Harris -1.5
Black -2.9

RAPTOR
Harris -1.0
Black -4.2

NET
Harris +3.3
Black -1.0

LEBRON
Harris -1.22
Black -2.65

BPM
Harris -1.2
Black -3.0

The Magic's most used and best lineup that had a +12.5 NET? Gary was in it.

The Magic's most effective bench lineup was Cole/Gary/Franz/Isaac/Moritz with a +21.1 NET.

Now obviously Black will improve with more experience, I'm not at all suggesting he won't, but how much can he narrow what was a significant gap after playing only 1100 minutes as a rookie?

I just think a lot of y'all are underestimating how well the Magic played with Gary on the court, even if it just seemed like Gary was "getting cardio" on a lot of nights.

Now if the argument is... "well now they have KCP to fill Gary's starting role even better than Gary did, so we're actually talking about filling Markelle and Joe's role off the bench, which requires more ball handling and facilitating than Gary can provide" - I can actually buy that argument, I'm just not confident that Black is actually ready to fill those shoes.

[eyriq]

The thing is...

Gary Harris *wasn't* marginally better. He was significantly better. And I say that with the full and complete understanding that most 20 year olds are expectedly bad and Harris *should* have been better. But make no mistake, Gary was a lot more impactful to winning basketball games last year than Black was.

EPM
Harris -1.5
Black -2.9

RAPTOR
Harris -1.0
Black -4.2

NET
Harris +3.3
Black -1.0

LEBRON
Harris -1.22
Black -2.65

BPM
Harris -1.2
Black -3.0

The Magic's most used and best lineup that had a +12.5 NET? Gary was in it.

The Magic's most effective bench lineup was Cole/Gary/Franz/Isaac/Moritz with a +21.1 NET.

Now obviously Black will improve with more experience, I'm not at all suggesting he won't, but how much can he narrow what was a significant gap after playing only 1100 minutes as a rookie?

I just think a lot of y'all are underestimating how well the Magic played with Gary on the court, even if it just seemed like Gary was "getting cardio" on a lot of nights.

Now if the argument is... "well now they have KCP to fill Gary's starting role even better than Gary did, so we're actually talking about filling Markelle and Joe's role off the bench, which requires more ball handling and facilitating than Gary can provide" - I can actually buy that argument, I'm just not confident that Black is actually ready to fill those shoes.

That overstates the advantage quite significantly.

Cole/Ingles/JI/Moritz were 15.1 points better in net rating with AB vs Harris.

Suggs/Franz/Paolo/WCJ were 11 points better in net rating with Harris vs AB

Suggs/Franz/Paolo/Goga were 10.3 points better with AB vs Harris

I could keep going. 6 out of the top ten 10 of these common lineups performed better with AB instead of Harris. That's a fact.

The point estimate, looking across all such lineups, says that Harris probably improved lineups net rating by 4.8 points over AB. The confidence interval for this estimate is -7.2 to 18.4 net rating points, so it is very probable that AB was indeed superior.

Hardly conclusive stuff here.

Use your advanced stats to compare Paolo to Chet, and then throw them in the trash.

[JoshuaPotter]

I didn't really make a clear point. My point is that with three young players out of the rotation and only one spot opened up by off-season moves (Fultz and Ingles out, KCP in), Harris and Cole are on the hot seat.

At least one of AB, Jett, and Tristan are getting minutes. What's the probability that two of them are in? All three?

At least one of them getting minutes I'm putting at 99% probability. Sorry Caleb.

Two of them at 49%.

Three of them at 5%.

i don't think harris is a lock, we literally got a better harris in KCP....in my mind

Fultz-AB
Harris-Jett
Ingles-Tristan

then again, my perspective is biased since i'm all the way out on Gary "cardio" Harris

I'm with you on Harris! My hope is that the new contract comes with a new role as a 3rd string shooting guard. I think it's a coin flip at this point.

There is a real chance that Mosley values 48 mins of KCP/Harris at shooting guard. They are very similar players.

The thing is that AB and Harris played similar roles last season, and while Harris was marginally better it was debatable. This was against a rookie, playing a different role from the one he played in college. So it isn't like there is overwhelming evidence supporting Harris, and AB is only getting better.

The hope is that AB's role is expanded to include more playmaking.

I simply do not see Suggs and Harris chemistry being burned. They spent too much time together and management saw that and decided to keep him on. Moving Harris from SL on a playoff team to third string is super unlikely and unlike another player who played a lot from the bench who wont be named and isn't here I do not see Harris degrading himself to Blacks role in the same situation next year. Harris skill set should get him paid for quite a bit longer.

[eyriq]

i don't think harris is a lock, we literally got a better harris in KCP....in my mind

Fultz-AB
Harris-Jett
Ingles-Tristan

then again, my perspective is biased since i'm all the way out on Gary "cardio" Harris

I'm with you on Harris! My hope is that the new contract comes with a new role as a 3rd string shooting guard. I think it's a coin flip at this point.

There is a real chance that Mosley values 48 mins of KCP/Harris at shooting guard. They are very similar players.

The thing is that AB and Harris played similar roles last season, and while Harris was marginally better it was debatable. This was against a rookie, playing a different role from the one he played in college. So it isn't like there is overwhelming evidence supporting Harris, and AB is only getting better.

The hope is that AB's role is expanded to include more playmaking.

I simply do not see Suggs and Harris chemistry being burned. They spent too much time together and management saw that and decided to keep him on. Moving Harris from SL on a playoff team to third string is super unlikely and unlike another player who played a lot from the bench who wont be named and isn't here I do not see Harris degrading himself to Blacks role in the same situation next year. Harris skill set should get him paid for quite a bit longer.

I'm blaming CrowdStrike for this run of posting behavior

[Knightro]

The odds of Gary going from 26 MPG starter in the playoffs to still on the team, but not in the rotation... it just ain't happening.

But look at the end of the day most of this is window dressing anyway because Gary's basically a lock to miss 20-25 games and that will open up plenty of time for other guys.

[JoshuaPotter]

I'm with you on Harris! My hope is that the new contract comes with a new role as a 3rd string shooting guard. I think it's a coin flip at this point.

There is a real chance that Mosley values 48 mins of KCP/Harris at shooting guard. They are very similar players.

The thing is that AB and Harris played similar roles last season, and while Harris was marginally better it was debatable. This was against a rookie, playing a different role from the one he played in college. So it isn't like there is overwhelming evidence supporting Harris, and AB is only getting better.

The hope is that AB's role is expanded to include more playmaking.

I simply do not see Suggs and Harris chemistry being burned. They spent too much time together and management saw that and decided to keep him on. Moving Harris from SL on a playoff team to third string is super unlikely and unlike another player who played a lot from the bench who wont be named and isn't here I do not see Harris degrading himself to Blacks role in the same situation next year. Harris skill set should get him paid for quite a bit longer.

I'm blaming CrowdStrike for this run of posting behavior

**Error: CrowdStrikeException**

Message: Unhandled posting behavior detected. Suspected source: JoshuaPotter.

Details:
The system has detected erratic posting behavior resembling a pattern associated with JoshuaPotter. This behavior violates posting guidelines and is not compatible with the expected runtime environment. Please review and correct the posting logic to prevent further runtime exceptions.

StackTrace:
at System.Runtime.ExceptionServices.ExceptionDispatchInfo.Throw()
at System.Threading.ExecutionContext.RunInternal(ExecutionContext executionContext, ContextCallback callback, Object state, Boolean preserveSyncCtx)
at System.Threading.ExecutionContext.Run(ExecutionContext executionContext, ContextCallback callback, Object state, Boolean preserveSyncCtx)
at System.Threading.ExecutionContext.Run(ExecutionContext executionContext, ContextCallback callback, Object state)
at System.Threading.ThreadHelper.ThreadStart()

[eyriq]

The odds of Gary going from 26 MPG starter in the playoffs to still on the team, but not in the rotation... it just ain't happening.

But look at the end of the day most of this is window dressing anyway because Gary's basically a lock to miss 20-25 games and that will open up plenty of time for other guys.

What would you set the probability at? We've got one spot and two sophomores and one rookie that NEED playing time. Just give me a back of the napkin estimate. What do you think? The probability that one of them is in the rotation? Two of them are in the rotation? All three of them are in the rotation?

[eyriq]

I simply do not see Suggs and Harris chemistry being burned. They spent too much time together and management saw that and decided to keep him on. Moving Harris from SL on a playoff team to third string is super unlikely and unlike another player who played a lot from the bench who wont be named and isn't here I do not see Harris degrading himself to Blacks role in the same situation next year. Harris skill set should get him paid for quite a bit longer.

I'm blaming CrowdStrike for this run of posting behavior

**Error: CrowdStrikeException**

Message: Unhandled posting behavior detected. Suspected source: JoshuaPotter.

Details:
The system has detected erratic posting behavior resembling a pattern associated with JoshuaPotter. This behavior violates posting guidelines and is not compatible with the expected runtime environment. Please review and correct the posting logic to prevent further runtime exceptions.

StackTrace:
at System.Runtime.ExceptionServices.ExceptionDispatchInfo.Throw()
at System.Threading.ExecutionContext.RunInternal(ExecutionContext executionContext, ContextCallback callback, Object state, Boolean preserveSyncCtx)
at System.Threading.ExecutionContext.Run(ExecutionContext executionContext, ContextCallback callback, Object state, Boolean preserveSyncCtx)
at System.Threading.ExecutionContext.Run(ExecutionContext executionContext, ContextCallback callback, Object state)
at System.Threading.ThreadHelper.ThreadStart()

LMFAO, this is perfection

[Knightro]

What would you set the probability at? We've got one spot and two sophomores and one rookie that NEED playing time. Just give me a back of the napkin estimate. What do you think? The probability that one of them is in the rotation? Two of them are in the rotation? All three of them are in the rotation?

They're all going to play SOME minutes because of injuries. Wendell, Gary and Isaac are all going to miss 15-20 games for sure based on past history. But even Franz and Suggs, who were both pretty healthy last year, still combined to miss 17 games too.

As far as probabilities...

There's a 0% chance all three of Black, Jett and TDS are in the "entire roster is healthy" rotation. That's not happening.

Conversely, there's a 100% at least one of them is in the rotation. It will probably be Black, although I think da Silva would likely give the team more on the court than Black would this year.

2 of the 3... we'll see. I wouldn't put the odds very high, but maybe I'm the one who's wrong about Gary and/or Cole (don't think I am though).

[eyriq]

What would you set the probability at? We've got one spot and two sophomores and one rookie that NEED playing time. Just give me a back of the napkin estimate. What do you think? The probability that one of them is in the rotation? Two of them are in the rotation? All three of them are in the rotation?

They're all going to play SOME minutes because of injuries. Wendell, Gary and Isaac are all going to miss 15-20 games for sure based on past history. But even Franz and Suggs, who were both pretty healthy last year, still combined to miss 17 games too.

As far as probabilities...

There's a 0% chance all three of Black, Jett and TDS are in the "entire roster is healthy" rotation. That's not happening.

Conversely, there's a 100% at least one of them is in the rotation. It will probably be Black, although I think da Silva would likely give the team more on the court than Black would this year.

2 of the 3... we'll see. I wouldn't put the odds very high, but maybe I'm the one who's wrong about Gary and/or Cole (don't think I am though).

Fair enough. I can agree with this assessment.

[Knightro]

Fair enough. I can agree with this assessment.

Just my opinion, but 9 of the 10 rotation spots are already accounted for.

Suggs, KCP, Franz, Paolo, Carter starting

Cole, Gary, Isaac, Moritz off the bench.

The last spot will either be Black or da Silva IMO.

And then when Carter is inevitably is out injured, that's more center time for Isaac, which means more PF time for TDS.

When Isaac is out injured, that's more PF time for TDS.

When Gary or Cole are out, that's more time for Black (or more time for TDS at SF if Black is already playing)

And on and on and on.

[basketballRob]

Gary usually doesn't make it for a 10 game stretch without pulling something, so AB should get a lot of opportunities.

Black wasn't analytically better than Harris last season, but 2nd and 3rd year players make big jumps in analytics.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[KillMonger]

Fair enough. I can agree with this assessment.

Just my opinion, but 9 of the 10 rotation spots are already accounted for.

Suggs, KCP, Franz, Paolo, Carter starting

Cole, Gary, Isaac, Moritz off the bench.

The last spot will either be Black or da Silva IMO.

And then when Carter is inevitably is out injured, that's more center time for Isaac, which means more PF time for TDS.

When Isaac is out injured, that's more PF time for TDS.

When Gary or Cole are out, that's more time for Black (or more time for TDS at SF if Black is already playing)

And on and on and on.

who does the ingles minutes go to? don't say issac

[KillMonger]

I didn't really make a clear point. My point is that with three young players out of the rotation and only one spot opened up by off-season moves (Fultz and Ingles out, KCP in), Harris and Cole are on the hot seat.

At least one of AB, Jett, and Tristan are getting minutes. What's the probability that two of them are in? All three?

At least one of them getting minutes I'm putting at 99% probability. Sorry Caleb.

Two of them at 49%.

Three of them at 5%.

i don't think harris is a lock, we literally got a better harris in KCP....in my mind

Fultz-AB
Harris-Jett
Ingles-Tristan

then again, my perspective is biased since i'm all the way out on Gary "cardio" Harris

I'm with you on Harris! My hope is that the new contract comes with a new role as a 3rd string shooting guard. I think it's a coin flip at this point.

There is a real chance that Mosley values 48 mins of KCP/Harris at shooting guard. They are very similar players.

The thing is that AB and Harris played similar roles last season, and while Harris was marginally better it was debatable. This was against a rookie, playing a different role from the one he played in college. So it isn't like there is overwhelming evidence supporting Harris, and AB is only getting better.

The hope is that AB's role is expanded to include more playmaking.

well the thing is we don't have to hypothesize we actually seen AB be able to contribute playing expanded minutes when the team was playing at a high level against good teams....i guess we'll see in training camp what happens, "Cardio" Gary has been hit or miss for me on the whole and when we needed him the most he was in street clothes....just not really reliable, so i'm supposed to expect that all of a sudden he's going to be reliable now? His spot should be up for grabs, were talking about someone who averaged 7 points when he was playing that is, last time he played over 70 games was his 2nd year in the league....That being said though there shouldn't be any handouts, you want more minutes you got to beat him out for it

[eyriq]

Random hate: nothing will please me more than Orlando having a better record than the Thunder next season. 10 win gap, SGA already top 5, and a young core that many consider better than ours? Oh yeah, fuels my hate.

[RookieStar]

Random hate: nothing will please me more than Orlando having a better record than the Thunder next season. 10 win gap, SGA already top 5, and a young core that many consider better than ours? Oh yeah, fuels my hate.

Its only due to SGA which tips the scales in their favor. Replace him with any player outside of the considered top-8 or so and it would be equal.

[meatwad4343]

Jett won't play much if it all. I think mosely will be reluctant to go to him over Gary Harris as he likes Gary's defense better, Jett would have to show a big leap on that end to get in the rotation. AB I'm assuming will get backup minutes, TDS I'm not sure.

[richi_v25]

I love how we're arguing over who might play bc we finally have a decent team, not too long ago we were starting non NBA players, this is so much better.