Official Offseason Thread 9.0: The Long Road to October

[Skybox]

Young, all defense, third best player with room to grow types get paid.

What did he shoot from 3?

That's still a role player. A very good role player...Assuming that some gap even exists between his agency & FO (we don't really know what's being said or asked for), Suggs' development curve has been spectacular...but it's not guaranteed to expand into playmaking or even to continue shooting 3's at 40%. Overpaying role players are financial handcuffs...or, more appropriately, paying really good role players as if they were stars...

I think there's a very reasonable issue to be worked out over time...IF Suggs continues to develop some offensive game off the dribble, he WILL be worth $30+ next summer (and will get it). That the FO isn't willing to pay for something that hasn't happened yet is not unreasonable - that's what RFA is designed for. I don't think Suggs' injury risks outweigh his opportunity to earn a much bigger contract after another year of progress...of course there's a risk of not developing, getting injured, the team recognizing their offensive scheme is a dead end, etc...but I support the idea that he's betting on himself and Weltman is cheering for Suggs to come through and EARN the big extension that they are presently discussing.

[JoshuaPotter]

Young, all defense, third best player with room to grow types get paid.

What did he shoot from 3?

That's still a role player. A very good role player...Assuming that some gap even exists between his agency & FO (we don't really know what's being said or asked for), Suggs' development curve has been spectacular...but it's not guaranteed to expand into playmaking or even to continue shooting 3's at 40%. Overpaying role players are financial handcuffs...or, more appropriately, paying really good role players as if they were stars...

I think there's a very reasonable issue to be worked out over time...IF Suggs continues to develop some offensive game off the dribble, he WILL be worth $30+ next summer (and will get it). That the FO isn't willing to pay for something that hasn't happened yet is not unreasonable - that's what RFA is designed for. I don't think Suggs' injury risks outweigh his opportunity to earn a much bigger contract after another year of progress...of course there's a risk of not developing, getting injured, the team recognizing their offensive scheme is a dead end, etc...but I support the idea that he's betting on himself and Weltman is cheering for Suggs to come through and EARN the big extension that they are presently discussing.

I'm OK with it too. Let Suggs feel like he has to develop. Otherwise, dude is still going to make ridiculous amounts of money, just can make a few more ridiculous dollars.

In terms of Suggs / Risk / Reward. Not really knowing what deal is on the table if one at all. Let him be challenged by it, continue to develop and come out and crush all our expectations leaving us no choice.

[Kent]

Read on Twitter

PG still hyping Paolo.

[Knightro]

Read on Twitter

PG still hyping Paolo.

I am confident that Paul George would have signed with the Magic if they had offered him the same deal Philadelphia offered him.

But IMO they didn't want to lock up that much money with Paolo's extension on the horizon and opted for KCP at 150M-ish less overall instead.

[The-Stallion70]

Suggs betting on himself is crazy ngl

I'm curious to hear your justification for this. Crazy smart? Crazy-not smart? What is your take on this?

Crazy not smart. He's slightly injury prone, has a ceiling on this team as a 3rd option, has seen the shift in the free agent market for roleplayers, and has AB on his heels.

He just doesn't have much leverage and it's impossible to play his way into a max contract on this team given we are paying Franz and will be paying Paolo.

Agree I also think the idea that Suggs could get a max is ludicrous. 12ppg, 3rpg 50 games played= max?

AB also is not really on anyone's heels. You're still pretty delusional about that. Guy was in and out of the rotation last year.

[orlando_joe]

I'm curious to hear your justification for this. Crazy smart? Crazy-not smart? What is your take on this?

Crazy not smart. He's slightly injury prone, has a ceiling on this team as a 3rd option, has seen the shift in the free agent market for roleplayers, and has AB on his heels.

He just doesn't have much leverage and it's impossible to play his way into a max contract on this team given we are paying Franz and will be paying Paolo.

Agree I also think the idea that Suggs could get a max is ludicrous. 12ppg, 3rpg 50 games played= max?

AB also is not really on anyone's heels. You're still pretty delusional about that. Guy was in and out of the rotation last year.

do not think max but you are using the wrong numbers its the 2nd team all defense 2nd most votes for all guards ..and almost 40% from 3s on high volume ...not sure why you say 50 games he played 75 and he wont be being paid to rebound?

[Bensational]

I think it's crazy because the risk outweighs the reward for him. His play style is hyper-physical and he puts his body at risk more than most players.

His cap hold is $28M, so he must be asking for north of that, right? A scenario where he hits a max extension is that he cements his role as our third option, shoots ~40% from three, makes all-defense again, AND gets a max offer from another team. He could do the first three and still get nowhere close to the max. Either we are low-balling the hell out of him or he's tripping.

Nah, it’s a safe risk for him outside of him suffering a severe career threatening injury. Even then, I imagine whatever he is being offered now is a comfortable floor for him in the future either from the Magic or another team. All NBA defensive player who shoots 40% from 3 will have him locked in for that KCP/McDaniels money of about $20-25m per season.

But Suggs has also now had a taste of a good season, steady progress, and some big playoff performances. If he does what he did last season plus shows he can be more of an offensive contributor with additional scoring and playmaking then it will get him into those $30m a season talks. If he can get to 15ppg, 5apg, <2TOpg, 40% from 3, plus bring his defense then he secures himself an extra $20-40m over the next 4 seasons whilst also probably pushing us up into the next tier of contending.

So it’s a smart risk. He’s delaying a near guaranteed offer now for a potentially bigger bag next summer. Me personally, I’d put money on him accomplishing that. He has that ‘him’ energy and Mr Big Shot vibe.

[The-Stallion70]

He will regret it if we offer 4/90 and he balks.

He goes into next year, ready to prove us wrong. Gets injured again, 50ish games played, 3pt goes back down to career average. Still largely plays off other guys, etc.

When you compare his performance year by year, his performance last year looks like a typical contract year outlier performance ala Andrew Nicholson.

[davey_wavy]

Paolo signs a 3 year extension to pave his way back to Seattle for the 27-28 season

[SOUL]

Suggs is vital to this team's success, and anyone doubting that is not watching the games. So is Isaac, for that matter. We looked particularly discombobulated in games without those two.

We have a lot of young trade chips (or future pieces) + moveable contracts to make moves for improvements over the next few seasons in areas on offense that we need to upgrade.

Suggs is staying and will get paid. His injuries are from playing too hard, nothing chronic. Top 3 guard defenders who are 23 years old who can also shoot are not growing on trees. He just needs to show consistency in that area and he's easily worth 30 mil. Of course it's not a sure bet, but the fact that he showed it for an entire season and it isn't something we're still wishing for, is a big plus.

People get so **** weird when it comes to paying good young players on our team. As long as you aren't signing Beal-like no trade clause contracts for guys that might be washed up, most contracts are very tradable these days if it doesn't work out.

[eyriq]

It's not a question on whether we should pay him but why we haven't signed him yet. Are we low-balling him? How big of a gap is he going to try and play his way into, if he is indeed betting on himself? If we are low balling him, why? If we aren't, how big of a gap could there actually be? If the gap isn't that big, why is he willing to take the risk? If the gap is big and we aren't lowballing him is he unwilling to accept his role on this team?

My assumption is that we're not lowballing him and that if there is a gap worth taking a risk on it's because he's being irrational about his value.

[BadMofoPimp]

Well, if they don't resign him now, he will be restricted next year so could match any deals or offer a 5 year similar. Don't see a problem.

[Rainwater]

Ok ill say it because nobody else has.

Suggs could still become our no 1 option. It just isn't likely.

Paolo + Franz are amazing talents and will get our max contract. The fact of the matter is, I haven't entirely given up on Suggs offensive development. Maybe after this year we close the door.

Anthony Black also has a long way to go, but shouldn't be ruled out.

The closest to "sure things" we have either are getting paid (Injury Isaac), or Franz + Paolo + KCP. This is simple to me.

I know you said it’s not likely to happen, but I have no clue how you came to this conclusion. Suggs has no shot at being the number one option on this team.

He doesn’t lead the team in the assists. He is not the one creating for others. Most of his points are due to the creation of others. His assists numbers have decreased. His ppg and fga have stagnated. There is no indication he is much more than a 3 and D guy right now.

[drsd]

Paolo signs a 3 year extension to pave his way back to Seattle for the 27-28 season

This is a topic work talking about. There was a chance say 15 years ago the Magi would have moved to Vega or Seattle. The new TV deal almost guarnetees the owners will expand to those two cities. And from then, there is almost nowhere for Orlando to move towards (maybe Mexico???).

Expansion is a great thing for the fans of low-market teams.

Also, as Banchero will get a mx extension and have the re-maxed, inly a super trade will ever see him play for the SuperSonics.
Also: why would a max player want to be on an expansion team? Both teams will suck for 5 years and be bad for 10.

[RichCollab]

Suggs will sign 4 years for 120 million before October is over.

Book it!

[VFX]

Suggs is vital to this team's success, and anyone doubting that is not watching the games. So is Isaac, for that matter. We looked particularly discombobulated in games without those two.

We have a lot of young trade chips (or future pieces) + moveable contracts to make moves for improvements over the next few seasons in areas on offense that we need to upgrade.

Suggs is staying and will get paid. His injuries are from playing too hard, nothing chronic. Top 3 guard defenders who are 23 years old who can also shoot are not growing on trees. He just needs to show consistency in that area and he's easily worth 30 mil. Of course it's not a sure bet, but the fact that he showed it for an entire season and it isn't something we're still wishing for, is a big plus.

People get so **** weird when it comes to paying good young players on our team. As long as you aren't signing Beal-like no trade clause contracts for guys that might be washed up, most contracts are very tradable these days if it doesn't work out.

I agree with all of this until the last paragraph.

I love Suggs, but he has 1 season of data to rest his case on and NOW he's playing out of position. Is it a good bet to make? Yeah, because there are few other alternatives worth the money within reach. However, I'm not going to pretend that Weltman and this FO will make better roster decisions when they are cornered into cap space.

It's not "weird", it's simply not trusting the FO based on history. They likely low balled him with some kind of super friendly Carter deal and he said "Nah". They probably did this because they are FAR behind attempting to figure out the rest of the roster and didn't do it the last 1.5-2 seasons like they should have. Someone suggested a team like Brooklyn could throw a wrench into their plans and that would be a shame.

This is why people wanted them to move players like Carter, Cole, etc. instead of playing with experimental lineups that aren't proven to work. Maybe signing a 32 year old guy $23m for 3 years, that does the same exact thing Suggs does, wasnt a super great decision when Suggs is in a contract year and no starting point guard with an actual resume exists on the roster.

[Bensational]

Just to remind some of the timeline of the past couple seasons:

2021/22 - Franz and Suggs’ 1st season. Suggs has some epic struggles as a starter and lead scorer.

2022/23 - Paolo’s 1st season. Suggs’ 2nd season. Suggs started, got injured, and then came off the bench for the rest of the season. Team narrowly missed the play-in.

2023/24 - Paolo’s 2nd season. Suggs’ 3rd season. Black’s first season. Suggs earns a starting role at SG. Black gets some spot starting minutes, spends most of the season on the deep bench after that. Team makes the playoffs as the 5th seed, narrowly missed the 2nd seed, and went to 7 games in the first round.

The team is so young and still growing, it’s hard to put final touches on an ongoing work in progress. Suggs’ growth went exponential last season, and now management have gotten behind that and set him up for an increased role on offense with more help on defense. This is what development and backing your guys looks like. And when it comes to balancing the team, even PG said Paolo needs shooters around him “because he’s a driver”, and that’s what the backcourt has now.

WePark chose to give Suggs a bigger role, Paolo more space to operate, and Franz a max deal - that’s commendable stuff in my books, and the team’s results are speaking for themselves.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Paolo signs a 3 year extension to pave his way back to Seattle for the 27-28 season

He will be offered a max 5 year deal. I doubt he would want to go to Seattle, an expansion team, that might be bad for a while if the Magic are contenders. If the Magic FO do their job they will be fine.

[pepe1991]

Paolo signs a 3 year extension to pave his way back to Seattle for the 27-28 season

He will be offered a max 5 year deal. I doubt he would want to go to Seattle, an expansion team, that might be bad for a while if the Magic are contenders. If the Magic FO do their job they will be fine.

Yea i mean, that's what all stars do, sign max than , when they got bored, demand trade and publish list of teams where they want to go , to scare off everybody else from trading.

I'm not sayig Banchero will do it, but he'll sign max , for max lenght for sure.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Paolo signs a 3 year extension to pave his way back to Seattle for the 27-28 season

He will be offered a max 5 year deal. I doubt he would want to go to Seattle, an expansion team, that might be bad for a while if the Magic are contenders. If the Magic FO do their job they will be fine.

Yea i mean, that's what all stars do, sign max than , when they got bored, demand trade and publish list of teams where they want to go , to scare off everybody else from trading.

I'm not sayig Banchero will do it, but he'll sign max , for max lenght for sure.

Sure, but these players demand to go to teams that are contending. If Seattle isn’t contending at the time, I can’t see Banchero demanding a trade to go there. Anywho, it’s up to the FO and Paolo. Losing another #1 draft pick is not my concern, it’s normal at this point. Honestly, I think I’d be more sad if Franz demand a trade than anyone else. He has no ties to any team or state here, so you know if he’s demanding he just wants to leave.