Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XXVII: Offseason Edition)

[pogiro]

Exactly. We're in the same position as the Nets were to us last year. Sure the Hawks would like to trade him out of the division, maybe even out of the conference, but Smith can force his way to Orlando. Whether he wants to do so or not is another thing. But he has mentioned us in the past as a place he'd like to go.

Yep, if Smith wanted to he could demand a trade here, a la Dwight.

Too bad our assets suck.

Didn't/doesn't seem to matter when people talk about Dwight going to the Nets. And everyone pretty much knows Smith will leave. He's been trying to get out for 3 seasons now.

[Def Swami]

Exactly. We're in the same position as the Nets were to us last year. Sure the Hawks would like to trade him out of the division, maybe even out of the conference, but Smith can force his way to Orlando. Whether he wants to do so or not is another thing. But he has mentioned us in the past as a place he'd like to go.

Yep, if Smith wanted to he could demand a trade here, a la Dwight.

Too bad our assets suck.

Nets assets sucked and they almost got Dwight.

You're right though. But if we're keeping Dwight, then we've got to put a team around him. In doing so, we'll need some luck. I'm banking on some luck.

[thelead]

If rob can bring in an allstar, I doubt Dwight would leave. If Rob can get a childhood friend of Dwight that's also an allstar, I would almost guarantee Dwight stays.

[dsg2021]

Regarding the latest ESPN speculation, Lowry is better than #8 unless you're incredibly high on someone like Lilliard or Waiters but I wouldn't take that bet at all, because the fun but also cold truth of drafting is there is a lot of hyping to the pre-draft that is suddenly being tested by teams' desire to actually player develop the picks and if the picks can show anything early too.

If they trade Lowry for #6, that seems ok if you're fine with how we'd think Beal, MKG, Barnes will turn out. In our ideal situation, we'd take Drummond and run away laughing. He could be a bust but I think it'll be more like a 2-3 year process to round out his total game like Dwight took 2 seasons, which would then be the perfect window to gain assets/lotteries like OKC did, and then he could be like the new Dwight-lite. But we have to assume worst case scenarios because I personally don't see Drummond dropping to #6 and so we have to be ok with losing Lowry to get only a Barnes, MKG, Beal, Robinson. Even though Lowry is already a surprising 26 I don't think he will decline much, he seems to be one of the top PG's now; I can understand though, the want to get a 21 yr old, even if Drummond is gone and its a 21 yr old wing who may not have a high ceiling but will still play above average and form part of the new same age core like OKC did.

I'm restating that I don't think Dwight will go/be-traded, I don't think it's the right move at all to move him. We can beat most of these draft players' potentials while keeping Dwight even without an extension with the premier FA's of 2013 and their all star level of play already. I'm just a sucker for speculation and roster planning and that while Hennigan would reform our post-Dwight team very well, I don't think it's going to be better than a Dwight team and there is easily good-will that can be regained and grown from this strain caused by the Dwight drama. After all, no one in Orlando boo's Dwight the whole year, especially on his "last" 1-2 Magic games before that deadline. We're a faithful fanbase and Dwight too already proved so many wrong by opting in.

[Ahmadab]

‏@Ahmadab
@nbadraftblog Any truth to the Lowry rumor ?

Ed Isaacson ‏@nbadraftblog
@Ahmadab Which one? as part of a deal to Sacramento to move up to #5? Nothing substantial to it right now

He's a reliable source, so there's that.

[Bensational]

Regarding the latest ESPN speculation, Lowry is better than #8 unless you're incredibly high on someone like Lilliard or Waiters but I wouldn't take that bet at all, because the fun but also cold truth of drafting is there is a lot of hyping to the pre-draft that is suddenly being tested by teams' desire to actually player develop the picks and if the picks can show anything early too.

If they trade Lowry for #6, that seems ok if you're fine with how we'd think Beal, MKG, Barnes will turn out. In our ideal situation, we'd take Drummond and run away laughing. He could be a bust but I think it'll be more like a 2-3 year process to round out his total game like Dwight took 2 seasons, which would then be the perfect window to gain assets/lotteries like OKC did, and then he could be like the new Dwight-lite. But we have to assume worst case scenarios because I personally don't see Drummond dropping to #6 and so we have to be ok with losing Lowry to get only a Barnes, MKG, Beal, Robinson. Even though Lowry is already a surprising 26 I don't think he will decline much, he seems to be one of the top PG's now; I can understand though, the want to get a 21 yr old, even if Drummond is gone and its a 21 yr old wing who may not have a high ceiling but will still play above average and form part of the new same age core like OKC did.

I'm restating that I don't think Dwight will go/be-traded, I don't think it's the right move at all to move him. We can beat most of these draft players' potentials while keeping Dwight even without an extension with the premier FA's of 2013 and their all star level of play already. I'm just a sucker for speculation and roster planning and that while Hennigan would reform our post-Dwight team very well, I don't think it's going to be better than a Dwight team and there is easily good-will that can be regained and grown from this strain caused by the Dwight drama. After all, no one in Orlando boo's Dwight the whole year, especially on his "last" 1-2 Magic games before that deadline. We're a faithful fanbase and Dwight too already proved so many wrong by opting in.

+1

Good analysis.

[glennathan]

As someone who was uneployed for 6 months I can say I am sorry to hear the scouting dept for the magic was fired. I know how much it sucks looking for work. But due to the incredibly poor job that has been done over the past few years and the fact of getting excited for a pizza delivery more than the actual people you are drafting deserves to have your job performance looked at.

Can't wait to see what big changes Rob has in store for this team and actually looking forward to Thursday. Hope that some of the trade ideas like 2 top 10 picks actually happens because it would be nice to see a team develop like we had back in the early 90's.

On a side note: Does it not seem weird that Houston is always trying to do as much as possible to help Orlando with getting blockbuster trades??

2004: Tmac trade
2009: Rafer Alston trade
2012: possible Dwight trade

They always seem to be a good trade partner for Orlando. Jar a little something I noticed.

[TSKD000]

So if the rumors are true, HOU is looking to trade Lowry to TOR for the #8 pick as well as trading #14 and #16 for another top 8 pick. Let's say to SAC for #5. then they would offer the #5 and #8 pick plus Kevin Martin and Dalemberts expiring contracts?? I'd assume the Magic would also want Parsons/Marcus Morris/Montiejunas for Howard. Then JRich/Fran for MINNs #18 pick? What a way to rebuild. Jameer would opt out and resign Ryno for no more than 7 mill per. Draft Barnes or MKG with the # 5 pick and maybe Drummond at # 8. Then at # 18 and # 19 draft two of Rivers, Marshall, Teague, Harkless or whoever is available. waive Redick and look to move Dalembert.

PG: Marshall/Ish/Duhon
SG: KMart/ Rivers
SF: Barnes or MKG/ Parsons/ Hedo
PF: Ryno/ BBD/ Morris
C: Drummond/Montiejunas

Not a bad way to start over at all.

[glennathan]

Did not see this posted anywhere

@IAMAGM: Mavericks to pick-up contract option on Brandan Wright for next season http://t.co/FgddhLVc

[MagicFan41]

So if the rumors are true, HOU is looking to trade Lowry to TOR for the #8 pick as well as trading #14 and #16 for another top 8 pick. Let's say to SAC for #5. then they would offer the #5 and #8 pick plus Kevin Martin and Dalemberts expiring contracts?? I'd assume the Magic would also want Parsons/Marcus Morris/Montiejunas for Howard. Then JRich/Fran for MINNs #18 pick? What a way to rebuild. Jameer would opt out and resign Ryno for no more than 7 mill per. Draft Barnes or MKG with the # 5 pick and maybe Drummond at # 8. Then at # 18 and # 19 draft two of Rivers, Marshall, Teague, Harkless or whoever is available. waive Redick and look to move Dalembert.

PG: Marshall/Ish/Duhon
SG: KMart/ Rivers
SF: Barnes or MKG/ Parsons/ Hedo
PF: Ryno/ BBD/ Morris
C: Drummond/Montiejunas

Not a bad way to start over at all.

Haven't run the numbers....but just so everybody knows, there IS a cap minimum in the new CBA, which I believe next year is 90% of the cap, so a little under $55mil or so. Now, Gil's amnestied contract can count towards that from what I have heard, which helps a ton....but if the plan is to simply have a ton of rookie contracts, that might not even be allowed. However, after Gil's salary is off the books next summer, we would need to add a lot of salary. Now filling out that moster with Monta/Iggy/Jsmoov would start to look quite nice.

[glennathan]

So if the rumors are true, HOU is looking to trade Lowry to TOR for the #8 pick as well as trading #14 and #16 for another top 8 pick. Let's say to SAC for #5. then they would offer the #5 and #8 pick plus Kevin Martin and Dalemberts expiring contracts?? I'd assume the Magic would also want Parsons/Marcus Morris/Montiejunas for Howard. Then JRich/Fran for MINNs #18 pick? What a way to rebuild. Jameer would opt out and resign Ryno for no more than 7 mill per. Draft Barnes or MKG with the # 5 pick and maybe Drummond at # 8. Then at # 18 and # 19 draft two of Rivers, Marshall, Teague, Harkless or whoever is available. waive Redick and look to move Dalembert.

PG: Marshall/Ish/Duhon
SG: KMart/ Rivers
SF: Barnes or MKG/ Parsons/ Hedo
PF: Ryno/ BBD/ Morris
C: Drummond/Montiejunas

Not a bad way to start over at all.

I am sure that the Magic give up the #19 pick in there somewhere. I really doubt Orlando gets picks 5, 8, 18, 19 all on this deep draft year.

[rcklsscognition]

If I'm Henny I am deciding if its possible to bring in a new leader to lead instead of Dwight and be the go to scorer because as a GM I know he will never lead a team to a ring. Then I have to get rid of BBD. Clashing leadership, no need for the backupPF to be the team's leader. We need that leader but it needs to be our best player. If I can't envision that all happening I move Dwight before the draft.

If Dwight has an ego or is cluelessto his lack of leadership and go to sccoringabilitiies than I worry about being able to sell him on a vision of the future without hurting his ego. How do you say to him, we need a new leader? If you can't do that its hard to get him to extend and hard to keep him.

[MagicFan41]

One of the many things I like about bringing in a whole new GM staff is that they should be able to look at this completely objectively....without any emotion tied to it, and hopefully make the best strategic basketball move for the franchise. Of course, part of the problem is the Devos' always having final say (which is their right, it's their franchise)....but they don't know jack-squat about basketball, so that becomes a bit frustrating.

[thelead]

I just hope the Devos' have learned their lessons. If Rich really wants to win a championship anytime soon, they better convince Dwight to stay. If he's willing to wait (ha), let's trade Dwight for picks and set us back to ~2002 minus the star...

[BelgianMagic]

I really don't think Rob's gonna trade Dwight in his first week on the job ..

I'm sure he's gonna have plans A,B,C,D, etc.. before trading Dwight. And rightfully so. With everyone talking about trading Dwight and what we can get back we're all forgetting the #1 goal is to convince him to stay.

And please, despite what ESPN & Brian Schmitz say, I truly believe Dwight wants to stay if the team can improve, and that's where Rob comes in.

We can easily have enough capspace to sign another star next summer, that should be the plan now.

[MagicFan32]

Only way I take a houston deal is w/the two picks, and other trades lined up for Martin and Scola.

rebuilding around 2 of either Beal, MKG, Drummond, Rivers, Marshall would be nice

if we're gonna rebuild let's do it the right way

[crazytown]

I'd rather get something of lesser value for Dwight if it means getting rid of Hedo, Duhon, and Q-Rich gawd awful contracts.

get rid of this Otis Smith stench ASAP

[Bensational]

If I'm Henny I am deciding if its possible to bring in a new leader to lead instead of Dwight and be the go to scorer because as a GM I know he will never lead a team to a ring. Then I have to get rid of BBD. Clashing leadership, no need for the backupPF to be the team's leader. We need that leader but it needs to be our best player. If I can't envision that all happening I move Dwight before the draft.

If Dwight has an ego or is cluelessto his lack of leadership and go to sccoringabilitiies than I worry about being able to sell him on a vision of the future without hurting his ego. How do you say to him, we need a new leader? If you can't do that its hard to get him to extend and hard to keep him.

I'm curious, but what is your idea of a leader?

I think Dwight is fine as a leader. the team doesn't have to have just one voice, leadership can come from multiple places in multiple degrees. the players have said before that Dwight leads them when he's playing happy and inspired. that's what gets them going, and that's what they respond to. he hasn't been happy or inspired, largely due to clashes with management, and possibly due to him not appreciating the players around him, or the fact he has to defer for low percentage shots for the likes of Hedo (who clearly doesn't give a **** that he's on a basketball court), Richardson (who's clearly lost a step), Jameer (who pouted at the start of the season because his feelings were hurt), and Ryan Anderson (who refuses to play defense if his shots aren't falling).

Hennigan is all about player development, and Dwight has a lot of unharnessed ability. you develop Dwight, you give him some more opportunities, and you give him quality help and you'll get the best leadership from Dwight that you can hope for - inspired basketball.

[WeRockMagic]

[

I'm curious, but what is your idea of a leader?

I think Dwight is fine as a leader. the team doesn't have to have just one voice, leadership can come from multiple places in multiple degrees. the players have said before that Dwight leads them when he's playing happy and inspired. that's what gets them going, and that's what they respond to. he hasn't been happy or inspired, largely due to clashes with management, and possibly due to him not appreciating the players around him, or the fact he has to defer for low percentage shots for the likes of Hedo (who clearly doesn't give a **** that he's on a basketball court), Richardson (who's clearly lost a step), Jameer (who pouted at the start of the season because his feelings were hurt), and Ryan Anderson (who refuses to play defense if his shots aren't falling).

Hennigan is all about player development, and Dwight has a lot of unharnessed ability. you develop Dwight, you give him some more opportunities, and you give him quality help and you'll get the best leadership from Dwight that you can hope for - inspired basketball.[/quote]



I agree totally with what u are saying here ! We need to put better players around Dwight plain an simple . We need someone that can get there own shot an create for all the shooters we have .

[WeAreVenom]

I'd rather get something of lesser value for Dwight if it means getting rid of Hedo, Duhon, and Q-Rich gawd awful contracts.

get rid of this Otis Smith stench ASAP

I actually feel Q is on a pretty good contract.

JRich's is disgusting, though. Him, Hedo, and Duhon are the only 3 that I desperately want off the team.

s/n: Does anyone know what kind of car Hedo drives? I was driving through Orlando at 1 am (on the TP) about two weeks ago, and there was a silver car with red rims and red trimmings (forgot what type of car, but it was definitely expensive) and the license plate read: "HEDO2". I'm almost certain he was drunk as his speed kept dipping and spiking, and he was swerving lanes.

I swear to you I didn't make that up, either. I tried to look when he was on the side of me but the windows were tinted too dark.