Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

[NotACat]

I finally got around to writing up a season recap of the Orlando Magic, you can check it out here: https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2020/7/15/21325517/orlando-magic-season-recap-so-far
When receiving a pass from Fultz, all the starters (excluding Jonathan Isaac due to sample size), have shot much better from deep:

3pt % when receiving a pass from Fultz

Aaron Gordon
30.1 -> 42.3
+12.2


These numbers are a great sign for the team and the change in Aaron Gordon’s shooting is remarkable. Its clear that Fultz has been able to break down defenses and set up his teammates for great shots. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon have been taking some ball handling duties away from Fultz, it will be interesting to see how Coach Clifford balances facilitator duties in the restart.

Great write-up. Fultz was more effective than my infrequent observations lead me to believe.

As a Blazer fan with a strong interest in Gordon those percentages are encouraging considering the looks he'd receive from Lillard (and McCollum depending on the specific deal). They also show that letting Gordon handle the ball so much for the Magic is detrimental. BTW, where did you get those passing -> percentage statistics?

Thank you! I got the numbers from here: https://stats.nba.com/player/1628365/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1

The volume of shots from Gordon isn't high, but he's also shooting 32% from 3 in catch-and-shoot scenarios. If he was focused into those scenarios more and worked on catch-and-shoot 3s in practice, I see no reason why can't be at least 35% from 3

[basketballRob]

Read on Twitter

In the last 3 games without Fournier we averaged 125 ppg.

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[MagicFan101]

Read on Twitter

In the last 3 games without Fournier we averaged 125 ppg.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

No one believes Evan lacks offensive skill but how some people here fail to see his unwillingness to buy into the larger system is beyond me.

Evan is a good player and absolutely could make this team better if he wanted to. Sadly, I have accepted that just isn’t the case. Hopefully he finds the right team for his style somewhere else soon.

[OrlandoNed]

Read on Twitter

In the last 3 games without Fournier we averaged 125 ppg.

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No one believes Evan lacks offensive skill but how some people here fail to see his unwillingness to buy into the larger system is beyond me.

Evan is a good player and absolutely could make this team better if he wanted to. Sadly, I have accepted that just isn’t the case. Hopefully he finds the right team for his style somewhere else soon.

Evan's skill set is what our team needs but he just doesn't have what we need between his ears. Evan's problem is that he is not nearly as good as he thinks.

We also have had issues for years with conflicting roster construction and coaching philosophies. We always cater to Vuc and Evan by running slower half-court offenses, but we continuously surround them with athletic and offensively raw players that don't fit the offense but when either one is out our pace picks up and our offense gets better via our athletes being allowed to play to their strengths.

I think we'd be much better off by splitting up Evan and Vuc ASAP. Our slow Evan and Vuc centered offense when healthy is not good enough to stay chained to long term. What have we got to lose other than a hard-capped ceiling of quick 1st round exits?

[pepe1991]

In the last 3 games without Fournier we averaged 125 ppg.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

No one believes Evan lacks offensive skill but how some people here fail to see his unwillingness to buy into the larger system is beyond me.

Evan is a good player and absolutely could make this team better if he wanted to. Sadly, I have accepted that just isn’t the case. Hopefully he finds the right team for his style somewhere else soon.

Evan's skill set is what our team needs but he just doesn't have what we need between his ears. Evan's problem is that he is not nearly as good as he thinks.

We also have had issues for years with conflicting roster construction and coaching philosophies. We always cater to Vuc and Evan by running slower half-court offenses, but we continuously surround them with athletic and offensively raw players that don't fit the offense but when either one is out our pace picks up and our offense gets better via our athletes being allowed to play to their strengths.

I think we'd be much better off by splitting up Evan and Vuc ASAP. Our slow Evan and Vuc centered offense when healthy is not good enough to stay chained to long term. What have we got to lose other than a hard-capped ceiling of quick 1st round exits?

On offense he is better than pretty much any Magic player, so it's not hard to understand why he plays the way he plays.
There is mountain of evidence he is far superior , especially this year, to any other Magic player for offense. Matter of fact he is so pivotal to Magic offense that without him Magic become second worst 3 ball shooting team since 2015 Lakers. In era of shooting where whole offense is dependent on simple thing. Will or will you not make shots.

Riding 3 games sample size ( Houston in experiment without even backup C, Minessota without only superstar they have, Memphis without second best player ) is as laughable as it gets for "sample size" . Magic just days prior his abstence played Heat and got wracked by Dragic and prior to that got wracked by Lillard-less Blazers. So there is no reason to ever belive Magic were "great" offense with or without Evan.
Magic are actually so desparate for anybody who can make open shots, that even career rotation player, being average shooter at best, like Ennis looks like solid option out there by just standing at a 3 point line doing nothing else.

What's even funnier about "better without Evan " claims is fact that DJ Augustin, Ross and MCW, 3 bench players, not starters, were ones who carried Magic loud. Players that spend almost no time with Evan when they play to being with. Now , if you expect that DJ and Ross are now 20 ppg scorers of bench than sure, ride and die on that or that MCw now has Curry level stroke.
In reality, Magic cought lucky breaks with opponents injury/post trade adjustments in that period and won 3 games by shooting unsustainable 3 ball percentage. Especially MCW who is career 26% three point shooter, making 5 out of 10 threes in 3 games

Ross in same period 11-22 for 3...

[Skybox]

I agree that Evan has THE skill set, size, at our position of need. I just want to see him play at Fultz’ pace. It SHOULD be a great backcourts pairing...I’m also bored with the term “buddy ball” about our two best players of the last few years...style of play falls to the coach.

Dump Evan!!! Get us some shooters!,, huh?

[SOUL]

I think it's less about Fournier (or even Vuc) being the problem but the same people complaining about people suggesting Fournier/Vuc trades were the same people saying we would struggle to score 80 or 90 points a game without them.. it's just not true. We struggled more on defense without Vuc and our offense has been fine without Fournier. Any suggestion of moving people from positions they've held for a while always seems to be an issue here but that's how it should be in any company or team. If you're constantly a non-playoff or fringe playoff team, you try to see what else works unless that player is a clear superstar. Same thing is happening with Gordon. Just happens when the team is mediocre.

[cedric76]

I agree that Evan has THE skill set, size, at our position of need. I just want to see him play at Fultz’ pace. It SHOULD be a great backcourts pairing...I’m also bored with the term “buddy ball” about our two best players of the last few years...style of play falls to the coach.

Dump Evan!!! Get us some shooters!,, huh?

If Evan wasn't in our team, People on this board would cry to trade for him as he seems to be the perfect fit next to Fultz

Go figure

[basketballRob]

We're a 26-35 club with Evan. I really believe we'd have a better chance in the playoffs without him.

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[pepe1991]

I think it's less about Fournier (or even Vuc) being the problem but the same people complaining about people suggesting Fournier/Vuc trades were the same people saying we would struggle to score 80 or 90 points a game without them.. it's just not true. We struggled more on defense without Vuc and our offense has been fine without Fournier. Any suggestion of moving people from positions they've held for a while always seems to be an issue here but that's how it should be in any company or team. If you're constantly a non-playoff or fringe playoff team, you try to see what else works unless that player is a clear superstar. Same thing is happening with Gordon. Just happens when the team is mediocre.

It's impossible to score less than 70 points on regular bases in today basketball. More often than not teams score 70 in 3rd quater.
Because of 3 ball, pace, amount of gimmicky and ones, all stats across the board, including final scores are inflated. That's why we had for first time in i think 2 decades 158 points- regular time game.

So saying team won't be able to score 80-90 points was always hyperbole more than actual, factual point.
Every team can score 100 points on regular bases. How they get there is difference between Warriors without Klay and Curry ( worst offense in basketball) and Dallas - the best offense in basketball.

Magic, despite somewhat respectful production of Evan ( career year) ,Ross and Vuc who couldn't replicate 2018-19 season but still play solid, are 6th worst offense.
League's AVERAGE effective field goal percentage is 52,8%. That's highest in NBA history. How many Orlando Magic players meet AVERAGE? Two. Evan and Bamba. Keep in mind Bamba scores between 3 and 8 points most of the nights so his contribution to offense is irrelevant. After that you have Vuc, Isaac and Ross and everybody else are sliding below 50%. This is not some uber elite level of efficiency. We talk about league's- average.
You have starter who people was fans favorite poster child for "superstar " Gordon who for a season is 5% below league's average in efficiency.

How trully pathetic Magic offensive firepower is is best viewed through new data that BB reference installed. Ponits added by overall shooting. * keep in mind it adds up over time, so more XY player shoots, he numbers will get that much better or worst *
( Giannis added value is +132 )



On team where nobody is superstar, nobody can be untradable, but it goes without saying this team is crying for offensive help.

[SOUL]

It's also very specific for this year though. Fournier is shooting better this year than any year before which is exactly what we need from him. Shooting well, volume scoring well, less ball handling -- leave that to Fultz/DJ/Gordon (passing, not ball handling) and Fournier can have the ball in his hands sometimes as well and I think most people are fine with that.

Part of that was because we were using Fournier wrong (imo) and we just have more options now that we don't have to force Fournier into roles that don't highlight his scoring ability.

[pepe1991]

According to nba tracking, Evan is not even close to players who touch the ball the most on Magic ( 6th, lowest among starters)
and Gordon spents more time with ball than him. (needless to say DJ and Fultz spend the most).
In any other category, it's clear as a day that Gordon and Evan spent identical time with ball, including dribbling the ball, only diference is scoring ( points per touch) where Evan is almost twice as effective.

Lot of Evan critique is simply pure subjectivity without any factual evidence, just fans liking other players more than him.
Especially young players as we all know, in eyes of fans every player that is younger than 25 is hidden Michael Jordan who just his coach, teammates, and menager hate and don't let him thrive.
Story seen too many times to care about

https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612753&sort=TOUCHES&dir=1

[basketballRob]

Evan is so awful on defense that he has to be perfect on offense. I'd rather go with someone who can defend every game. If we do that i really believe we're a 50 win team.

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[zaymon]

Fournier is our best pick and roll ball handler(77 percentile!), together with Ross he is our best off the screen shooter(80 percentile), together with Augustine he is our best spot up shooter(85 percentile), he is best transition player behind MCW(68 percentile), on handoffs second behind Ross (70 percentile), he is also our best cutter (98 percentile).
Basically Fournier is our best ball handler, best overall shooter, he is best moving without the ball and best in transition ( much better than Gordon)and on top of that he is our second best perimeter defender tasked to guard Hardens and Beals of the world. People are quick to forget he almost single-handedly won us many games when Vucevic was injured. To make it even more impressive he did it with very bad offensive players like Fultz, Gordon and Isaac on the floor with him.
To me he is one of the most underrated players in the nba. Every poster that writes he is selfish should check his statistics before writing nonsense. For such a good scorer he is one of the most pass friendly guards in the nba. He doeant have point guards vision but he passes more than Klay Thompson, Josh Richardson and Jaylen Brown ( all by a lot!).
I really dont understand this Evan hate. Yes sometimes he acts like a d**k but he is also one of the only our players right know who doesnt suck.

[cedric76]

Evan is so awful on defense that he has to be perfect on offense. I'd rather go with someone who can defend every game. If we do that i really believe we're a 50 win team.

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Evan is an above average defender, far far from awful

[Bakomagic]

I finally got around to writing up a season recap of the Orlando Magic, you can check it out here: https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2020/7/15/21325517/orlando-magic-season-recap-so-far
When receiving a pass from Fultz, all the starters (excluding Jonathan Isaac due to sample size), have shot much better from deep:

3pt % when receiving a pass from Fultz

Aaron Gordon
30.1 -> 42.3
+12.2


These numbers are a great sign for the team and the change in Aaron Gordon’s shooting is remarkable. Its clear that Fultz has been able to break down defenses and set up his teammates for great shots. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon have been taking some ball handling duties away from Fultz, it will be interesting to see how Coach Clifford balances facilitator duties in the restart.

Great write-up. Fultz was more effective than my infrequent observations lead me to believe.

As a Blazer fan with a strong interest in Gordon those percentages are encouraging considering the looks he'd receive from Lillard (and McCollum depending on the specific deal). They also show that letting Gordon handle the ball so much for the Magic is detrimental. BTW, where did you get those passing -> percentage statistics?

That is interesting, I wonder what Gordon and the rest of the teams shooting percentages are when you compare Fultz passing vs Fournier and DJ passing to a teammate.

I've long speculated that DJ and Fournier hurt our shooting percentage as a team because they wait a half second too long to pass to an open teammate or throw a pass that takes the open shooter out of rhythm because of the location of the pass (not in the shooting pocket or causes player side step to receive pass). We've all seen DJ's behind the back passes to Bamba off the pick n pop where Bamba has to get out of rhythm to gather the ball and give the defender that extra time to recover and Evan isolating the defender and stumbling before throwing a desperate pass as he is falling to the ground forcing his teammate to take a quick off balance shot as time expires.

Could it be that Fournier and DJ hurt our team shooting percentage even though they are two of our best shooters ? Maybe these instances don't happen enough to make a difference in team shooting percentage or maybe its similar to an NFL team having a high dropped passes rate....... Are the WR's dropping catchable passes or is the inaccurate QB throwing passes behind, high or low to the WR ?

What do you all think ?

[NotACat]

I finally got around to writing up a season recap of the Orlando Magic, you can check it out here: https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2020/7/15/21325517/orlando-magic-season-recap-so-far
When receiving a pass from Fultz, all the starters (excluding Jonathan Isaac due to sample size), have shot much better from deep:

3pt % when receiving a pass from Fultz

Aaron Gordon
30.1 -> 42.3
+12.2


These numbers are a great sign for the team and the change in Aaron Gordon’s shooting is remarkable. Its clear that Fultz has been able to break down defenses and set up his teammates for great shots. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon have been taking some ball handling duties away from Fultz, it will be interesting to see how Coach Clifford balances facilitator duties in the restart.

Great write-up. Fultz was more effective than my infrequent observations lead me to believe.

As a Blazer fan with a strong interest in Gordon those percentages are encouraging considering the looks he'd receive from Lillard (and McCollum depending on the specific deal). They also show that letting Gordon handle the ball so much for the Magic is detrimental. BTW, where did you get those passing -> percentage statistics?

That is interesting, I wonder what Gordon and the rest of the teams shooting percentages are when you compare Fultz passing vs Fournier and DJ passing to a teammate.

I've long speculated that DJ and Fournier hurt our shooting percentage as a team because they wait a half second too long to pass to an open teammate or throw a pass that takes the open shooter out of rhythm because of the location of the pass (not in the shooting pocket or causes player side step to receive pass). We've all seen DJ's behind the back passes to Bamba off the pick n pop where Bamba has to get out of rhythm to gather the ball and give the defender that extra time to recover and Evan isolating the defender and stumbling before throwing a desperate pass as he is falling to the ground forcing his teammate to take a quick off balance shot as time expires.

Could it be that Fournier and DJ hurt our team shooting percentage even though they are two of our best shooters ? Maybe these instances don't happen enough to make a difference in team shooting percentage or maybe its similar to an NFL team having a high dropped passes rate....... Are the WR's dropping catchable passes or is the inaccurate QB throwing passes behind, high or low to the WR ?

What do you all think ?

Don't need to think if we can look at the numbers.
DJ: https://stats.nba.com/player/201571/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1
Fournier: https://stats.nba.com/player/203095/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1


What stands out to me:
-Not much to read from DJs stats since most of his passes are to players in the second unit, sample size isn't enough to pull data for the starters IMO
-For Fournier, all of the starters shot worse from 3 when receiving a pass from him:
==Vucevic: 28.8% (32.9% season avg)
==AG: 17.9% (30.1% season avg)
==Fultz: 22.2% (25.4% season avg)
-According to cleaning the glass, Fournier accounts for 16.1% of all of our teams assists when he's on the floor (81st percentile) - that tells me he has way too much on-ball responsibility


I decided to check the passing numbers for AG and Vuc as well
-Evan shoots 51% from 3 when receiving a pass from AG, Vuc is only shooting 20% (less than 1 3pt attempt a game when getting a pass from AG)
-When Vuc is passing, Evan is shooting 34.2%, AG is shooting 39%(!!), Fultz is 28% (above his season average)


All in all, it seems like our Fultz should be our primary facilitator, Vuc 2nd, and AG 3rd. AG is either very good or very fortunate when he's catching passing from Fultz or Vuc. Fournier likely will continue to get the ball more because the PnR with him and Vuc has been effective in the regular season.

[Bakomagic]

Great write-up. Fultz was more effective than my infrequent observations lead me to believe.

As a Blazer fan with a strong interest in Gordon those percentages are encouraging considering the looks he'd receive from Lillard (and McCollum depending on the specific deal). They also show that letting Gordon handle the ball so much for the Magic is detrimental. BTW, where did you get those passing -> percentage statistics?

That is interesting, I wonder what Gordon and the rest of the teams shooting percentages are when you compare Fultz passing vs Fournier and DJ passing to a teammate.

I've long speculated that DJ and Fournier hurt our shooting percentage as a team because they wait a half second too long to pass to an open teammate or throw a pass that takes the open shooter out of rhythm because of the location of the pass (not in the shooting pocket or causes player side step to receive pass). We've all seen DJ's behind the back passes to Bamba off the pick n pop where Bamba has to get out of rhythm to gather the ball and give the defender that extra time to recover and Evan isolating the defender and stumbling before throwing a desperate pass as he is falling to the ground forcing his teammate to take a quick off balance shot as time expires.

Could it be that Fournier and DJ hurt our team shooting percentage even though they are two of our best shooters ? Maybe these instances don't happen enough to make a difference in team shooting percentage or maybe its similar to an NFL team having a high dropped passes rate....... Are the WR's dropping catchable passes or is the inaccurate QB throwing passes behind, high or low to the WR ?

What do you all think ?

Don't need to think if we can look at the numbers.
DJ: https://stats.nba.com/player/201571/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1
Fournier: https://stats.nba.com/player/203095/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1


What stands out to me:
-Not much to read from DJs stats since most of his passes are to players in the second unit, sample size isn't enough to pull data for the starters IMO
-For Fournier, all of the starters shot worse from 3 when receiving a pass from him:
==Vucevic: 28.8% (32.9% season avg)
==AG: 17.9% (30.1% season avg)
==Fultz: 22.2% (25.4% season avg)
-According to cleaning the glass, Fournier accounts for 16.1% of all of our teams assists when he's on the floor (81st percentile) - that tells me he has way too much on-ball responsibility


I decided to check the passing numbers for AG and Vuc as well
-Evan shoots 51% from 3 when receiving a pass from AG, Vuc is only shooting 20% (less than 1 3pt attempt a game when getting a pass from AG)
-When Vuc is passing, Evan is shooting 34.2%, AG is shooting 39%(!!), Fultz is 28% (above his season average)


All in all, it seems like our Fultz should be our primary facilitator, Vuc 2nd, and AG 3rd. AG is either very good or very fortunate when he's catching passing from Fultz or Vuc. Fournier likely will continue to get the ball more because the PnR with him and Vuc has been effective in the regular season.

Awesome, thank you for doing the leg work ! Seems that the statistics match the”eye test” when it comes to Evan not being the most efficient playmaker on our team.

Send this to coach Cliff !

[zaymon]

That is interesting, I wonder what Gordon and the rest of the teams shooting percentages are when you compare Fultz passing vs Fournier and DJ passing to a teammate.

I've long speculated that DJ and Fournier hurt our shooting percentage as a team because they wait a half second too long to pass to an open teammate or throw a pass that takes the open shooter out of rhythm because of the location of the pass (not in the shooting pocket or causes player side step to receive pass). We've all seen DJ's behind the back passes to Bamba off the pick n pop where Bamba has to get out of rhythm to gather the ball and give the defender that extra time to recover and Evan isolating the defender and stumbling before throwing a desperate pass as he is falling to the ground forcing his teammate to take a quick off balance shot as time expires.

Could it be that Fournier and DJ hurt our team shooting percentage even though they are two of our best shooters ? Maybe these instances don't happen enough to make a difference in team shooting percentage or maybe its similar to an NFL team having a high dropped passes rate....... Are the WR's dropping catchable passes or is the inaccurate QB throwing passes behind, high or low to the WR ?

What do you all think ?

Don't need to think if we can look at the numbers.
DJ: https://stats.nba.com/player/201571/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1
Fournier: https://stats.nba.com/player/203095/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1


What stands out to me:
-Not much to read from DJs stats since most of his passes are to players in the second unit, sample size isn't enough to pull data for the starters IMO
-For Fournier, all of the starters shot worse from 3 when receiving a pass from him:
==Vucevic: 28.8% (32.9% season avg)
==AG: 17.9% (30.1% season avg)
==Fultz: 22.2% (25.4% season avg)
-According to cleaning the glass, Fournier accounts for 16.1% of all of our teams assists when he's on the floor (81st percentile) - that tells me he has way too much on-ball responsibility


I decided to check the passing numbers for AG and Vuc as well
-Evan shoots 51% from 3 when receiving a pass from AG, Vuc is only shooting 20% (less than 1 3pt attempt a game when getting a pass from AG)
-When Vuc is passing, Evan is shooting 34.2%, AG is shooting 39%(!!), Fultz is 28% (above his season average)


All in all, it seems like our Fultz should be our primary facilitator, Vuc 2nd, and AG 3rd. AG is either very good or very fortunate when he's catching passing from Fultz or Vuc. Fournier likely will continue to get the ball more because the PnR with him and Vuc has been effective in the regular season.

Awesome, thank you for doing the leg work ! Seems that the statistics match the”eye test” when it comes to Evan not being the most efficient playmaker on our team.

Send this to coach Cliff !

Its nice to have a different perspective but you guys took those stats way out of context. Did you consider that when Fultz is passing to Gordon, Fournier is the one spacing the floor, and when Fournier is passing to Gordon Fultz is the floor spacer ? its only one of many variables.
Gordon is in 18 percentile as a pnr ball handler and in 49 percentile in transition. In almost every metric he is awful to below average ball handler.

[basketballRob]

Don't need to think if we can look at the numbers.
DJ: https://stats.nba.com/player/201571/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1
Fournier: https://stats.nba.com/player/203095/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1


What stands out to me:
-Not much to read from DJs stats since most of his passes are to players in the second unit, sample size isn't enough to pull data for the starters IMO
-For Fournier, all of the starters shot worse from 3 when receiving a pass from him:
==Vucevic: 28.8% (32.9% season avg)
==AG: 17.9% (30.1% season avg)
==Fultz: 22.2% (25.4% season avg)
-According to cleaning the glass, Fournier accounts for 16.1% of all of our teams assists when he's on the floor (81st percentile) - that tells me he has way too much on-ball responsibility


I decided to check the passing numbers for AG and Vuc as well
-Evan shoots 51% from 3 when receiving a pass from AG, Vuc is only shooting 20% (less than 1 3pt attempt a game when getting a pass from AG)
-When Vuc is passing, Evan is shooting 34.2%, AG is shooting 39%(!!), Fultz is 28% (above his season average)


All in all, it seems like our Fultz should be our primary facilitator, Vuc 2nd, and AG 3rd. AG is either very good or very fortunate when he's catching passing from Fultz or Vuc. Fournier likely will continue to get the ball more because the PnR with him and Vuc has been effective in the regular season.

Awesome, thank you for doing the leg work ! Seems that the statistics match the”eye test” when it comes to Evan not being the most efficient playmaker on our team.

Send this to coach Cliff !

Its nice to have a different perspective but you guys took those stats way out of context. Did you consider that when Fultz is passing to Gordon, Fournier is the one spacing the floor, and when Fournier is passing to Gordon Fultz is the floor spacer ? its only one of many variables.
Gordon is in 18 percentile as a pnr ball handler and in 49 percentile in transition. In almost every metric he is awful to below average ball handler.

Almost all Fournier's assists go to Vuc. He just flat out refuses to pass it to anyone else at times. I really have the feeling that players don't want to play with him.

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