Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread

[RookieStar]

nice post Knightro.

Im stilm dumbfounded about Cam thought. I thlught for sure his talent and skill would translate to the pros. He has a good form in his 3pt form but its not just going in. Kind of like Cole.

As to kuminga, he is a. good to great player no doubt but I really find it hard to see him as a wing. Everything about him screams PF kind of like AG v2 as I said before.

Reddish looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane as the old expression goes.

6'8" 210 lbs, 7'0 1/2 wingspan with plus athleticism and a pretty looking jumper. What's not to like?

The problem is the shot just doesn't go in. Combine that with the fact that even if he could pass (which it doesn't appear he can), Reddish is a lot like Aaron Gordon in the respect that his athleticism, which is clearly good, just doesn't play up at all when he has the ball in his hands being guarded and has to try and beat defenders using his dribble.

If your functional ball handling is poor as a wing, you better be a good shooter or else you're going to have a really tough time being a good offensive player.

Thats just it though.. coming into Duke he was heralded as their 3pt threat... I dunno why its not going in. Look at Cole, earlier in the season it wad the same story but before injury, his percentage got better.

[Knightro]

As of now, I think Suggs ia better than Green especially for us especially if its true Suggs is 6'5 as they say.

You have Moody over Bouknight?

Im actually on the fence.. if the choices remaining are Mobley and Kuminga, im tempted to trade down for bouknight/moody cuz that would mean the asset attached would be immense.

I like Bouknight, but Moody has *really* grown on my the last couple of weeks.

Moody is only 18 years old still. A year and a half younger than Bouknight. Moody has shown much three-level scoring potential as Cunningham and Green IMO. He gets to the FT line at a massive rate (48% FT rate) *and* has proven himself as a shooter - 39% from three and 83% from the FT line on heavy volume.

The main difference I see between Moody and Cunningham/Green is that those guys both can create for others (significantly so in Cade's case) on top of being quality wing scorers.

Cunningham: 20.7 AST%
Green: 13.5 AST%
Moody: 9.7 AST%

[RookieStar]

As of now, I think Suggs ia better than Green especially for us especially if its true Suggs is 6'5 as they say.

You have Moody over Bouknight?

Im actually on the fence.. if the choices remaining are Mobley and Kuminga, im tempted to trade down for bouknight/moody cuz that would mean the asset attached would be immense.

I like Bouknight, but Moody has *really* grown on my the last couple of weeks.

Moody is only 18 years old still. A year and a half younger than Bouknight. Moody has shown much three-level scoring potential as Cunningham and Green IMO. He gets to the FT line at a massive rate (48% FT rate) *and* has proven himself as a shooter - 39% from three and 83% from the FT line on heavy volume.

The main difference I see between Moody and Cunningham/Green is that those guys both can create for others (significantly so in Cade's case) on top of being quality wing scorers.

Cunningham: 20.7 AST%
Green: 13.5 AST%
Moody: 9.7 AST%

I thought Bouknight had a better 3pt% over Moody? Yeah Moody is ascorer..I think he will last longer on the league because he doesnt use his athelticism all that much... which to me is an issue. He can get away with that in college becuase more often than not, his defenders are smaller than bis 6'6ish size or waaay slower if its a bigger defender. However, I dunno how effective he will be in the pros when the defenders for his position are the same size or bigger than him and more atheltic.

[Knightro]

I'm taking Green over Suggs right now even though I think Suggs is the better basketball player at the moment.

Here's my thing with Suggs. I think to maximize him you have to use him at PG at the NBA level, but that position is just so unbelievably competitive compared to SG.

And in a draft like this, with a pair of wing prospects (Cade/Green) this good, I don't think I can pick a PG ahead of them that doesn't have crazy out of his world numbers.

Ja Morant: 37.3 PTS/100, 15.3 AST/100
Trae Young: 40.4 PTS/100, 12.9 AST/100
Jalen Suggs: 27.2 PTS/100, 8.5 AST/100

I get that Suggs is playing on an absolutely stacked college team and that hurts his overall numbers, but I am less confident he can step in and be an individual force like Morant and Young were right away.

[RookieStar]

True but what if Suggs does belong to the elite tier of PG?

Im picking him only if Cade is gone.

Also, the reason Im taking Suggs over Green ( for now) is because I think he has the best handles in the top10. You can.never go wrong with elite ball handling abilities.

[drsd]

In what world is Scottie Barnes compared to Aaron Gordon? Have you ever watched Scottie Barnes?

Positionless combo-forward that ends up developing as a forward without a position. Something lie that logic.

..

[GelbeWand09]

After watching a few games & Highlights (except Mobley)

1. Cade: 3 level scoring wing + playmaking = most important player type
2. Suggs: 3 level scoring Guard + pot. elite playmaking + defense
3. Green: 3 level scoring wing without playmaking = could be great but high chance too his stats wont translate to winning if he is not a plus defender (see Lavine)
4. Kuminga: If he can beat guys off the dribble constantly, i would draft for potential for sure
5. Mobley: Havent watched him yet. My question, got he potential as a real impact 2 way big? When not i woudnt touch a offensive big without impact defense in the top 5. Those guys doesnt win games. They have almost all one in common, good stats on losing teams. (Cousins, Love, Collins, Vuc, KAT, Randle....) Trade Gobert for any of those guys in there prime & there team wins 15 games more, despite him scoring only half as many points. Or a 2 way big like Embiid, who made a g-leaque team, built for drafting 1st, instantly a 45+ win team as a rusty rookie.

[basketballRob]

Statistically Moody is right where Klay Thompson was at the same age. Hopefully when he gets to the pros they'll just train him to be a two, where he'll have a huge advantage with his 7' wingspan.

His coach is the guy that helped Arenas become an all star PG, after he was drafted 31st, as a small SG.


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[pepe1991]

You mean " non of them have the ability to consistently beat people off the dribble ..." in nba. Since all guys mentioned were elite prospects when they were stacked against college competition, just flat out flopped when their adventages from college didn't translate. Cam Reddish and Knox are actually better athletes. Cam is flat out better built, Knox has better shooting form, Marvin has and always had better inscitcs around rim...

*Sigh*

Ok.

Reddish and Knox, who were both a year older than Kuminga when they were college freshmen, showed very little ability to create shots off the bounce for other players when they got to college.

HS Senior playing in NBAG Kuminga 12.2 AST%, 14.1 TO%
College Freshman Reddish 10.7 AST% 16.5 TO%
College Freshman Knox 8.7 AST% 14.1 TO%

Reddish was also a particularly bad finisher at Duke. Nothing about his statistical profile suggested he should have been a top 10 pick. He certainly looked the part, but he never once actually played the part in college. Not dissimilar to Cole Anthony if we're being honest.

Knox flashed a little more as a scorer than Reddish did, but the only thing Knox ever really showed a willingness to do was put up shots. He actually had even less feel for the game than Reddish did if you can believe that. If it didn't involve putting up a shot, Knox was generally not involved. Low assists, low rebounds, low steals, low blocks, low effort generally if he wasn't hunting a shot.

Bagley was and still is a big, not a wing, so he's not really an apples to apples comparison.

But back to Kuminga himself. You mentioned beating people off the dribble. At 18 and half years old. Against G league competition. You didn't mention how his dribbling got him nowhere and how he shot 38,7% FG in general and his APG to TO ratio was basically 1-1. So his advanced taking people off the dribble never really got him anywhere, didn't it?

His dribbling got him nowhere in what respect? Because he drew fouls and got to the line as well as any other player in the G-League bubble. He also finished well at the rim and in the paint.

I also don't think you really understand how encouraging it is for an 18-year-old wing prospect to average 4 AST/100 against all older players at a level above high school. And the age thing certainly matters as Kuminga opted to forgo his senior year of high school and reclassify into a year up. How much better would he look with another full year of training and development like Green, Suggs, Cunningham and Mobley all have over him?

So, hypoteticlly, how do you think 20 years old non-lottery pick would stack against that competition ? You think he would struggle? After all, as you said, those terrible, terrible draft busts had no defined nba skill,yet were LOTTERY PICKS, and Kuminga, according to you has sweet ability to take people off the dribble. Yet he struggles...

It stands to reason that a 20-year-old would do better than a 19-year-old and a 19-year-old would do better than an 18-year-old. Guys who are on further along on their developmental curve should do better.

So how would players who were NOT lottery picks, who DON'T have "defined skill" would stack against G league competition? I bet they would struggle!! They had to struggle, i mean, Kuminga has NBA defined skill but he struggled.

Luka Samanic -can't play in rookie year for terrible Spurs... 21 ppg in G league
Kevin Porter Jr.- mediocre college career, cut off nba team---25 ppg in G league

Neither Porter Jr. nor Samanic were really all that more impressive or effective than Kuminga, especially considering Samanic is 3 years older and Porter is 2 years older. They just shot the ball more and used more possessions.

Samanic 30.3 USG%
Porter Jr. 29.9 USG%

Kuminga's USG was 24.6%. Give him a 30 USG like those two guys and he'd have been well over 20 PPG as well since that's the metric you want to cite.

My point execlly. You don't know how good Kuminga and Green is, nobody does. Kuminga can just as easly end up being Ronda Hollis Jefferson / Andre Roberson/ Nassir Little type player.

Of course he *could* be like those guys, but I'm optimistic he will be a lot better because has already shown way more tangible wing skill - creating shots at the rim, passing, and drawing fouls all off dribble at a much younger age than any of the guys you named.

At 18 years old, all three of Hollis-Jefferson, Roberson and Little were still in high school.

RHJ was a 2-year college player. Roberson was a 3-year college player. They were both low usage guys who showed very little perimeter skill (dribble, pass, shoot).

Little had a horrific college season in which he showed even less perimeter skill than RHJ or Roberson. That justifiably killed his draft stock and he went in the mid 20s. Not sure how he's even a comparison when he only had 14 assists over his entire freshman season and Kuminga had 35 in 13 games even though he is playing a year up.

I'm hardly suggesting Kuminga is a flawless prospect. He's not. He's so young that there's going to be a lot of growing pains. But for the most part every guy you've tried to compare him to can't dribble, pass *or* shoot at a high level. It's three levels of struggle.

When you factor his age (which is definitely relevant) Kuminga looks like he has better foundation of dribbling and passing than all the guys you mentioned and more than a lot of 18 year old wing prospects. Bringing other things to the table offensively *should* (not saying it will) give him more leeway and time to develop his jump shot.

Knox was born in August of 1999 and played at college at age of 18. Are you really using 54 difference days as point that he Kuminga is "younger" ?
Cam Reddish, pretty much same thing, he was turning 19 during tail end of college season. You are using couple of months to make it sound like Kuminga has some significant adventage over them because he is "young" but Cam Reddis ( literally 2 years pro in nba) is 21 today, and Knox is in nba for three years, and is yet to turn 22.
I find age argument irrelevant

Your deep dive into assists per game also left one interesting information.
College games last 8 min less than G league games. Witch breaks whole assist argument and stats argument in general. Kuminga had basially one whole quater, at average, more to put up stats.
Not to mention complete lack of organised basketball strucutre where teams don't play to win games, but players play to showcase their skills. College more often than not, strips players unlimited usage for sake of team's result. G league and G league team invented to showcase Kuminga and Green -polar opposite. Soul purpose of existence of that team was to showcase them.

Knox flashed a little more as a scorer than Reddish did, but the only thing Knox ever really showed a willingness to do was put up shots. He actually had even less feel for the game than Reddish did if you can believe that. If it didn't involve putting up a shot, Knox was generally not involved. Low assists, low rebounds, low steals, low blocks, low effort generally if he wasn't hunting a shot.

This simply isn't accurate.
Kuminga in 33 mpg averaged 15, 8 ppg, 7,2 rpg ,2,7 apg, 2,6 TO
PER 36: 17,4 PPG, 7,9 RPG, 3, APG

Knox per 36
17,3 PPG,6 Rebounds, 1,6 assists

Cam Reddish
16,3 ppg, 4,5 rpg, 2,6 assists

context: G league ignite ( and G league in general ) has around 46 total reobunds aveliable and 24 assists.
Kentucky as team averaged 38,7 rebounds and 13,2 assists.
Duke 41 rebounds, 16 assists.
more aveliable rebounds and assists will fill stat sheet to look like there is significant differene, when in context of team rebounds and assists, it's clear he is not that much better than them

Again, back to my orginal complaint about your using stats for Kumings , pace and duration of a games flat out inflated his numbers in comparisons to similar type of prospects in past, in this case Cam and Kevin.

There is also fairly obvious you avoid talking about efficiency. Cam was terrible at efficiency. My first "Cam- terrible" comment here, year and half ago, was about it. He flat out can't shoot or score at any range or in any meaingful fashion. But Kevin Knox could. Kevin was actually fairly good scorer.
Kumigna is falling into "terrible " category very easly. He had negative offensive win share for his team. Thing you don't see often when you look at prospects. His shooting splits are painful.

His dribbling got him nowhere in what respect? Because he drew fouls and got to the line as well as any other player in the G-League bubble. He also finished well at the rim and in the paint.

I also don't think you really understand how encouraging it is for an 18-year-old wing prospect to average 4 AST/100 against all older players at a level above high school. And the age thing certainly matters as Kuminga opted to forgo his senior year of high school and reclassify into a year up. How much better would he look with another full year of training and development like Green, Suggs, Cunningham and Mobley all have over him?

And you are arguing that 18 years old Knox and Cam didn't ? They played against college players , where some of them were 4 to 5 years older than them.

Neither Porter Jr. nor Samanic were really all that more impressive or effective than Kuminga, especially considering Samanic is 3 years older and Porter is 2 years older. They just shot the ball more and used more possessions.

Porter, age 20, 25 ppg, 58% TS
Samanic, age 21, 22 ppg, 54% TS
Kumings, age 18, 17 ppg, 49,7% TS

it's clear drop. Back at talking about age. Nobody forced him to play in G league and do what ? DRop from highschool? That's his personal decision. Nobody gets extra ponits for it. Darko MIlicic was younger than Kuminga is today when he started to play in nba. I don't see many people making that point any more. Don't they? Or fact that Bynum was drafted when he turned 17, and played as pro at age of 18... and six days, making it borderline illegal to play.
There is also point out that Sekou Doumbouya LAST YEAR,at age of 19, in G league, averaged 17 ppg on 62,8% TS and did all that by being couple of months older than Kuminga is now.

I'm hardly suggesting Kuminga is a flawless prospect. He's not. He's so young that there's going to be a lot of growing pains. But for the most part every guy you've tried to compare him to can't dribble, pass *or* shoot at a high level. It's three levels of struggle.

When you factor his age (which is definitely relevant) Kuminga looks like he has better foundation of dribbling and passing than all the guys you mentioned and more than a lot of 18 year old wing prospects. Bringing other things to the table offensively *should* (not saying it will) give him more leeway and time to develop his jump shot.

He might look like better ballhandler in different basketball structure than they had, but he is also much worst shooter than any of them. And nba is going toward shooting.

At apsolute best i can't see him being anything more than Pascal Siakam-lite type of guy. Not bad, but i don't thik anybody would try to build championship roster around Pascal Siakam.

[Skybox]

Lots of good stuff at the top of the draft...I personally give extra points to guys from Gonzaga or Villanova (assuming other variables are similarly balanced). Those guys just know how to play and win as a team. They make good pros...in recent years, lots of guys are turning in amazing personal performances at non-basketball powers with losing records and they often have more variability of success at the next level. Just a feeling. I'd be very happy to have a bench full of marginal Villanova guys backing up a couple of stars.

[Knightro]

True but what if Suggs does belong to the elite tier of PG?

Im picking him only if Cade is gone.

Also, the reason Im taking Suggs over Green ( for now) is because I think he has the best handles in the top10. You can.never go wrong with elite ball handling abilities.

I mean it’s not totally fair to hold Suggs having good teammates against him, but if you’re picking him top 2-5, in an ideal world you’re doing so under the guise that player can be all-star caliber.

Doesn’t always work out that way obviously.

Suggs hasn’t really been leaned on in that capacity. Doesn’t mean he can’t do it. But it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to a team in the NBA who needs him to be more.

[basketballRob]

I think Detroit and Minnesota may take Mobley first. He could play center next to Grant in Detroit or PF next to Towns.

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[pepe1991]

If Towns asks for trade, Minessota might as well just sell a team and move to Seattle. That franchise would be finished.

[PrimeThyme]

I am not a Kuminga guy either. Especially not for this roster. The 3pt% and the FT% just don't instill a lot of hope in his shot for me. Those are generally pretty trusty markers when determining if a player will be able to shoot at the next level. He also has a somewhat peculiar starting release point from 3, similar to Isaac, which isn't always ideal. Especially when attempting to develop an off-the-dribble pull-up game. Not seeing much ball-handling chops in the highlight clips out on him either.

Looks like a special athlete, && he may very well develop into a great player, but I have no reason to believe it would happen with this team.

It's scary how much he screams Weltman pick though. They would love to burn another high draft pick on a relatively raw offensive player who we need to just be patient with and let develop. The only issue with that is they've proven with Bamba not to be interested in the development part.

We've never needed to win the lottery more. Just so Weltman can't botch this pick and has to take Cade at 1.

[zaymon]

I am not a Kuminga guy either. Especially not for this roster. The 3pt% and the FT% just don't instill a lot of hope in his shot for me. Those are generally pretty trusty markers when determining if a player will be able to shoot at the next level. He also has a somewhat peculiar starting release point from 3, similar to Isaac, which isn't always ideal. Especially when attempting to develop an off-the-dribble pull-up game. Not seeing much ball-handling chops in the highlight clips out on him either.

Looks like a special athlete, && he may very well develop into a great player, but I have no reason to believe it would happen with this team.

It's scary how much he screams Weltman pick though. They would love to burn another high draft pick on a relatively raw offensive player who we need to just be patient with and let develop. The only issue with that is they've proven with Bamba not to be interested in the development part.

We've never needed to win the lottery more. Just so Weltman can't botch this pick and has to take Cade at 1.

I think Scottie Barnes is more of a Weltman pick than Kuminga. Also remember Weltman lately drafted more skilled players in Okeke and Anthony.

[PrimeThyme]

I think Scottie Barnes is more of a Weltman pick than Kuminga. Also remember Weltman lately drafted more skilled players in Okeke and Anthony.

6'6 wing, 6'11 wingspan, uber athlete, skillset to be great defender, and raw offensively. Sounds like the epitome of a Weltman player to me. Okeke/Anthony are the outliers in that regard. They've burned two top 6 draft picks on similar players plus spent second-round picks on players like Iwundu and Frazier.

I'm also not sure if Okeke is/was a skill player per se. I mean he was a better shooter, but still pretty raw as an offensive player in all other aspects. Ball handling, off the dribble, playmaking, etc were all pretty underdeveloped skillsets for him.

He was very much drafted for his potential as a wing defender and his athleticism. Not to mention the 7-foot wingspan.

[zaymon]

I think Scottie Barnes is more of a Weltman pick than Kuminga. Also remember Weltman lately drafted more skilled players in Okeke and Anthony.

6'6 wing, 6'11 wingspan, uber athlete, skillset to be great defender, and raw offensively. Sounds like the epitome of a Weltman player to me. Okeke/Anthony are the outliers in that regard. They've burned two top 6 draft picks on similar players plus spent second-round picks on players like Iwundu and Frazier.

I'm also not sure if Okeke is/was a skill player per se. I mean he was a better shooter, but still pretty raw as an offensive player in all other aspects. Ball handling, off the dribble, playmaking, etc were all pretty underdeveloped skillsets for him.

He was very much drafted for his potential as a wing defender and his athleticism. Not to mention the 7-foot wingspan.

Isaac, Bamba, Okeke and Anthony were good shooters, or at least had good indicators. Kuminga has none.

[Knightro]

I would argue that Scottie Barnes is not a raw offensive player. That implies he's not skilled and I think he's incredibly skilled.

He's just a poor shooter. Now obviously you can't just write that off as not a big deal because it's a huge deal, but I definitely think there's a ton of basketball skill there.

Don't see many college wings/bigs who average 10 REB, 10 AST and 3.5 STL per 100 possessions.

Cade Cunningham is routinely cited as a "triple double threat" or a "Luka Lite" player and he averages about half the assists per possession than Barnes does - 5.3 AST/100.

Kuminga is a younger, more raw version of Barnes, but ultimately they have similar-ish skill sets.

[RookieStar]

True but what if Suggs does belong to the elite tier of PG?

Im picking him only if Cade is gone.

Also, the reason Im taking Suggs over Green ( for now) is because I think he has the best handles in the top10. You can.never go wrong with elite ball handling abilities.

I mean it’s not totally fair to hold Suggs having good teammates against him, but if you’re picking him top 2-5, in an ideal world you’re doing so under the guise that player can be all-star caliber.

Doesn’t always work out that way obviously.

Suggs hasn’t really been leaned on in that capacity. Doesn’t mean he can’t do it. But it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to a team in the NBA who needs him to be more.

But shouldn't the argument work in the pros? Him having good teammates in college vs. him having a team full of the best college players in the pros or something?

Anyway, Suggs does scream all-star caliber to me. Earlier in the season it was Suggs winning everyone over for the #1 pick. It was Cade slowly playing better each game that overtook Suggs. I mean, how much you wanna bet that if Suggs takes his team to the championship.. or even the final four while maintaining his averages that he will be the #1 pick/talk before the draft?

[Knightro]

But shouldn't the argument work in the pros? Him having good teammates in college vs. him having a team full of the best college players in the pros or something?

Anyway, Suggs does scream all-star caliber to me. Earlier in the season it was Suggs winning everyone over for the #1 pick. It was Cade slowly playing better each game that overtook Suggs. I mean, how much you wanna bet that if Suggs takes his team to the championship.. or even the final four while maintaining his averages that he will be the #1 pick/talk before the draft?

I don't think so, because it's relative to competition.

He'll be playing with NBA players, sure, but he's going to be be drafted to a team that has worse NBA players than most of the others.

Suggs is going from the best team in college basketball, a team so talented that Suggs can score 14 points a night and they can still be undefeated, to one of the 3-4 worst teams in the NBA most likely.

Can he become a higher usage player in the pros when the bad NBA team that picks him inevitably leans on him to do more? Hopefully so!