The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic

[89Magicfan]

Have you ever trained an athlete that skinny? He isn't playing badmitton. He has to bang against NBA bigs for 30mpg for 60-82 games per season without twisting any ankles or blowing out a knee all while being conditioned to not be tired to commit too many fouls due to NBA pace.

Absolutely. Trained first responders, athletes, that skinny. Seen some serious transformations. Seen some turn into straight monsters.

I was pretty thin in high school myself. I’m never going to be 240 plus but at 6 feet I’m pretty impressive. Granted I’ve been training for 25+ years but I out perform people half my age and suffer very small of injuries if any.

The key to injury prevention is little more in depth and specific to individual.

So, you trained pro athletes who play in the NBA level? I mean there is one thing with being able to play, but to withstand the rigors pounding on a bone thin frame for so often and so long, I haven't seen many last long. The vast majority never live up to expectations or rarely hit the court. I mean, Chets legs are beyond skinny to be banging with NBA bigs over those teenagers he is against in those videos.

Again, it’s very specific to the player and his biomechanics. To his physiological makeup. JI didn’t suffer his injury because of just being skinny. He suffered it because of the way he moved on that knee. Strengthening, increase or decrease of muscle size, injury prevention aren’t all of the same variable. They are all separate, specific, variables to an equation.

[tiderulz]

I disagree. His body type aka skin and bones is not the type that can put on weight. His legs are as skinny as my arms and I weight 170lbs so my arms are not massive. No doubt he has talent, but just don't feel he will last long due to injuries and conditioning.

I’ve trained some high level athletes in my time. You are incorrect. Does he have the build to be like Zion if he was conditioned? No but he absolutely can get his body to a point where he’s strong, good muscle percentage and prevent injuries.

Have you ever trained an athlete that skinny? He isn't playing badmitton. He has to bang against NBA bigs for 30mpg for 60-82 games per season without twisting any ankles or blowing out a knee all while being conditioned to not be tired to commit too many fouls due to NBA pace.

ehh, yes and no. first of all, he will likely be playing PF with WCJ at center. Also, this isnt basketball of the 80's and 90's. We dont have bigs battling the entire game. most teams have bigs floating around more to create driving lanes for their guards and wing players. I do note that he will be playing more mpg and wont be able to coast in games like he could do in college or HS.

[tiderulz]

Have you ever trained an athlete that skinny? He isn't playing badmitton. He has to bang against NBA bigs for 30mpg for 60-82 games per season without twisting any ankles or blowing out a knee all while being conditioned to not be tired to commit too many fouls due to NBA pace.

Absolutely. Trained first responders, athletes, that skinny. Seen some serious transformations. Seen some turn into straight monsters.

I was pretty thin in high school myself. I’m never going to be 240 plus but at 6 feet I’m pretty impressive. Granted I’ve been training for 25+ years but I out perform people half my age and suffer very small of injuries if any.

The key to injury prevention is little more in depth and specific to individual.

So, you trained pro athletes who play in the NBA level? I mean there is one thing with being able to play, but to withstand the rigors pounding on a bone thin frame for so often and so long, I haven't seen many last long. The vast majority never live up to expectations or rarely hit the court. I mean, Chets legs are beyond skinny to be banging with NBA bigs over those teenagers he is against in those videos.

also, you know he was working with Gonzaga's trainers and staff as soon as he got on campus. his strength likely increased but it didnt do much for his body, at least not adding more weight. I personally dont see him being able to be much more than around 220 with his frame. but im no expert on these things

[BadMofoPimp]

I’ve trained some high level athletes in my time. You are incorrect. Does he have the build to be like Zion if he was conditioned? No but he absolutely can get his body to a point where he’s strong, good muscle percentage and prevent injuries.

Have you ever trained an athlete that skinny? He isn't playing badmitton. He has to bang against NBA bigs for 30mpg for 60-82 games per season without twisting any ankles or blowing out a knee all while being conditioned to not be tired to commit too many fouls due to NBA pace.

ehh, yes and no. first of all, he will likely be playing PF with WCJ at center. Also, this isnt basketball of the 80's and 90's. We dont have bigs battling the entire game. most teams have bigs floating around more to create driving lanes for their guards and wing players. I do note that he will be playing more mpg and wont be able to coast in games like he could do in college or HS.

People keep throwing up Garnett and Durant, but they were all 20 pounds heavier than Chet when they came into the NBA while Chet is taller and skinnier than those 2. He looks good on video against kids, but I just don't see him lasting long term without serious injury concerns.

[OrlMagic05]

To me Chet is the pick. I was big on Jabari, but the 43% shooting scares me. The selling point to me is playing chet at the 4 and not the 5. I dont want him to be a center. I think he has the intangibles to be like a healthy (Knicks) Porzingis, with way better defense. His body does scare me if we were planning to play him at the 5, but once again, I think the 4 fits him way better in today's NBA since he wont need to bang with any bigs.

[BadMofoPimp]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

[tiderulz]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

and body wise, this is a good example that worries me. But, Noel was a down low banger, had very little basketball skills so he had to play at center mostly

[BadMofoPimp]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

and body wise, this is a good example that worries me. But, Noel was a down low banger, had very little basketball skills so he had to play at center mostly

This was in college and not bangin anyone. I can envision Chets knee snapping at any moment.

[OrlMagic05]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

Noel was a 5. In order for Chet to be successful you have to use him at the 4. Chet at the 4 could do wonders since he wont need to bang with bigs. I really dont see any team taking the chance at playing chet at the 5.

[BadMofoPimp]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

Noel was a 5. In order for Chet to be successful you have to use him at the 4. Chet at the 4 could do wonders since he wont need to bang with bigs. I really dont see any team taking the chance at playing chet at the 5.

That video was him just running down court and tearing up knee in college. Don't need to bang to tear up a knee. One wrong step with not much except skin and bone to protect a knee can be disastrous.

[OrlMagic05]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

Noel was a 5. In order for Chet to be successful you have to use him at the 4. Chet at the 4 could do wonders since he wont need to bang with bigs. I really dont see any team taking the chance at playing chet at the 5.

That video was him just running down court and tearing up knee in college. Don't need to bang to tear up a knee. One wrong step with not much except skin and bone to protect a knee can be disastrous.

People can tear their ACL's doing just about anything. You can't base not drafting someone on this type of premise. I'm sure there are plenty of teams that wish they wouldve drafted that super skinny kid from Greece in the 2013 draft. Not saying he will be the next Giannis or KD, but the kid has talent and could be a star if used right. I really think that Gonzaga used him incorrectly with playing him at the 5. Granted College basketball is different, but it wouldve been nice to see them play him at 4 and let him showcase his 1 on 1 skills more often.

[89Magicfan]

Would be so easy to tear up a knee in the NBA if your legs are thinner than anyones arms. Noel was great and athletic pre-injury.

Watch on YouTube

Noel was a 5. In order for Chet to be successful you have to use him at the 4. Chet at the 4 could do wonders since he wont need to bang with bigs. I really dont see any team taking the chance at playing chet at the 5.

That video was him just running down court and tearing up knee in college. Don't need to bang to tear up a knee. One wrong step with not much except skin and bone to protect a knee can be disastrous.

The key to injury prevention is deeper than muscle size. It’s strength and movement. It’s also how the player moves. It starts at the feet. Supinated or pronated? Most injuries in all athletes and occupational athletes are posterior. Some are lateral. Some medial. Some happen just as a freak accident. It’s not just “oh look thin means injuries.” It’s not that clear cut and dry.

[Skybox]

I don't think there's enough serious medical basis to write Chet off as injury-prone because he's skinny. Anyone that tall is generally at greater risk than most, so I'm ok with disregarding that variable...I absolutely am concerned about him being ineffectual because he's skinny and having to adapt to a MUCH less physical role in the NBA. He'd still be really good, but not #1 good, IMO.

[CZ Eddie]

I checked to see how Chet looked in his first year of college vs Tim Duncan.
Chet had the better numbers in most categories.
The categories where Tim was better were all by the slimmest of margins.

FG% Chet
2P% Chet
3P% Chet
FT% Tim @ .745 vs Chet at .717
Rebounds Chet
Assists Chet
Steals Chet
Blocks Tim @ 3.8 vs Chet @ 3.7
Turnovers Tim @ 1.2 vs Chet @1.9
Fouls Tim @ 2.5 vs Chet @ 2.7
Points Chet

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tim-duncan-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/chet-holmgren-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jabari-smith-2.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/paolo-banchero-1.html

I didn't realize Tim was so large.
6-11, 248lb
Very similar in size to Paolo who I used to think was too heavy.

Duncan was 17 his entire freshman season. Even Smith was a year older than him. He was 2 years younger than Chet. 1 1/2 years younger than Paolo.

I'm always big at comparing young players by age. Sorry

Plus I really think you need to look at what Chet did against the good teams.



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I wasn't trying to be scientific or make any statements, I was just posting some neat info.
But you make a good point, so here's Tim's Junior year vs Chet's Freshman.

FG# Chet
2P% Chet
3P% Chet
FT% Chet
Rebounds Tim 12.3 vs 9.9 for Chet
Assists Tim 2.9 vs 1.9 for Chet
Steals Chet
Blocks Tim 3.8 vs 3.7 for Chet
Turnovers Chet
Fouls Tim vs 2.7 for Chet
Points Tim by five

[Nyce_1]

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[89Magicfan]

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Was just going to post this! Good find and cements some of the stuff I’m saying.

[KillMonger]

don't go too far with the jokes....won't be able to backpedal if he's the pick and since things aren't clear cut he very well may be

If Chet is picked and ends up injured all the time, then this team may not be going anywhere except back to the draft. Plus, I question his conditioning ability to play 30mpg against NBA bigs for 82 games, much less 60 being he played 32 against smaller and mainly kids.

if i win a million dollars that would be great.....if they do another back to the future movie i hope it's good....if courtney lee would've made that layup.....and so on etc....you can only do so much about things that haven't happened and have yet to happen....IF they happen....how can anyone live like that or make any major decision if you're that invested in the If's and maybe's that isn't even in the picture or tangible yet....the thing you're worried about isn't even real at this point in the kids career....so are you saying he's injury prone even though he's never been before and hasn't been till this day?

[fendilim]

Should we consider Chet’s BMI instead? I mean the guy is freakishly long, it will take a lot of muscles to make him look really brawny. What if he already has muscles or doesnt have a poor foundation as what it seems like because of the vertical illusion his built presents?

[OrlChamps2030]

I don't think there's enough serious medical basis to write Chet off as injury-prone because he's skinny. Anyone that tall is generally at greater risk than most, so I'm ok with disregarding that variable...I absolutely am concerned about him being ineffectual because he's skinny and having to adapt to a MUCH less physical role in the NBA. He'd still be really good, but not #1 good, IMO.

Agreed I’m more worried about his lack of strength impacting his actual on court play and to compound that I question his frame/genetics and his ability to get bigger. This isn’t Giannis growing up stateless, lacking proper nutrition, growing up in the streets, and playing for a third division Greek team. This is a guy who was highly ranked his whole high school career and went on to play college ball at a major program. There’s been many opportunities to put on more mass, not to mention he’s older than a lot of freshman. Has he already exhausted his newbie gains?

I’ve seen his skinny frame compared to guys like Dwight and AD but I just don’t see it. Look at either of AD/D12 in high school or UK and their frames. Look at the width of their shoulders and their muscle insertion points. You can fit 1.75 Chet’s between either of those guys shoulders even at 18. Compare Chet’s wrists to either of those guys. I just wonder if maybe Chet is just one of those guys who can’t put on muscle mass to save his life like a Tayshaun Prince. And that’s before considering how much healthy mass can his frame even carry before it impacts his mobility. Sticking this guy above a McDonald’s is the last thing you want to do..

[axl_c_cool]

I just think it's not worth the risk with the others on board

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