Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XXIV: Offseason Edition)

[rcklsscognition]

You guys are high if you think were getting that kind of package for Dwight. IMO nets get 1st pick and trade Davis and filler for Dwight and Hedo. If they get the 2nd or 3rd pick we get Brooks and Lopezs in addition and ship duhon.

[Rick Rolled]

The more I read about them, the more I want us to hire either Lindsey or Weaver.

No retreads like Bower.

A fresh face at GM, and a fresh face at coach. If it doesn't work out, so be it... but I'd rather gamble on some fresh faces rather than failed retreads or proven mediocrity.

If we hire Bower, someone in the front office obviously has a fat-guy-with-mustache fetish.

[darthmerrick]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/executives/pritcke01x.html

Pritchard's record is not stellar, but better than Bower's for sure.

I agree Darth, if Walsh isn't available, that would be my top 3. With Lindsey being first.

Lindsey probably has an eye for making good trades and selecting late round picks (San Antonio). But I'm leaning more towards Weaver myself. He was an assistant coach at Syracuse University and was responsible for the big recruitment of Carmelo Anthony. His AAU coaching and connections might work well with recruiting young talented Free Agents.

He was also head scout from the Utah Jazz 2004-2007.
Jazz drafted: Kris Humphries, Kirk Snyder, Pavel Podkolzine (traded for Lineas Kliza in same draft), Deron Williams; CJ Miles, Ronnie Brewer, Paul Milsap.

Jazz got considerably worst at drafting after he left, He then went to OKC's to be assistant GM.
Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Rodrique Beaubois (later traded), Taj Gibson (later traded),Eric Bledsoe (later traded), Craig Brackens (later traded), Quincy Poindexter (later traded), Reggie Jackson.

So Weaver has shown an eye for talent, an ability to recruit players. Definitely tops on my list.

[MrOrlando]

Assume the Nets win the #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Magic Send:

Dwight Howard
Hedo Turkoglu

Nets Send:

#1 Pick (Anthony Davis)
Brook Lopez
Marshon Brooks
Gerald Wallace
Jordan Farmar

The odds are that Dwight is going to leave anyway and I think this is a great mix of talent to help start rebuild the team.

New Jersey is going to have to offer up something like that if they want Dwight. He signed a one year extension with us, and Deron could walk out this summer. To keep him there, they're gonna have to sweeten the pot just like this to get a jump on Deron staying, pairing him with Dwight and becoming a powerhouse in the East for years to come.

With that said, we're entering a full blown rebuild mode Jameer and Duhon, out. I'm a fan of Nash, and live in Houston and have seen what kind of player Lowry is, he is underrated and I know we could snatch him from Houston if we offered a good enough package (Someone mentioned JJ/Anderson. Get it done!)

[glennathan]

I can't remember where in the thread I read it at, but I thought it said something about trading Dwight to the Cavs for Irving or Thompson and a pick. Was there any legs to that??

Also I think we will hire Bower as well but would put my bid in for Weaver all day.

[Def Swami]

The lottery is going to tell us a lot. Anyone got stats on how often a team outside of the 3 worst records gets a top 3 pick due to chance?

[Def Swami]

Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): 25-percent chance at No. 1, 64.3 percent at top three

Washington Wizards (20-46): 19.9-percent chance at No. 1, 55.8-percent chance at top three

Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Hornets (21-45): 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.

Sacramento Kings and New Jersey Nets (22-44): 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.

Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors* (23-43): 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.

Detroit Pistons (25-41): 1.7-percent chance at No. 1, 6.1-percent chance at top three.

Minnesota Timberwolves** (26-40): 1.1-percent chance at No. 1, 4-percent chance at top three.

Portland Trail Blazers (28-38): 0.8-percent chance at No. 1, 2.9-percent chance at top three.

Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): 0.7-percent chance at No. 1, 2.5-percent chance at top three.

Phoenix Suns (33-33): 0.6-percent chance at No. 1, 2.2-percent chance at top three.

Houston Rockets (34-32): 0.5-percent chance at No. 1, 1.8-percent chance at top three.

[Ahmadab]

I can't remember where in the thread I read it at, but I thought it said something about trading Dwight to the Cavs for Irving or Thompson and a pick. Was there any legs to that??

Also I think we will hire Bower as well but would put my bid in for Weaver all day.

Irving is a no-no, it was the following :
LAL : Get Dwight
ORL : Get Thompson, Cavs 2012 Pick, Lakers 2012 Pick, Varejao (spelling)
CLE : Get Bynum, Hedo

I call bull

[ChildishGambino]

Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): 25-percent chance at No. 1, 64.3 percent at top three

Washington Wizards (20-46): 19.9-percent chance at No. 1, 55.8-percent chance at top three

Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Hornets (21-45): 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.

Sacramento Kings and New Jersey Nets (22-44): 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.

Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors* (23-43): 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.

Detroit Pistons (25-41): 1.7-percent chance at No. 1, 6.1-percent chance at top three.

Minnesota Timberwolves** (26-40): 1.1-percent chance at No. 1, 4-percent chance at top three.

Portland Trail Blazers (28-38): 0.8-percent chance at No. 1, 2.9-percent chance at top three.

Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): 0.7-percent chance at No. 1, 2.5-percent chance at top three.

Phoenix Suns (33-33): 0.6-percent chance at No. 1, 2.2-percent chance at top three.

Houston Rockets (34-32): 0.5-percent chance at No. 1, 1.8-percent chance at top three.

i'm assuming that's for this year's lottery....why don't i see the Nets on there? is that blazers pick theirs?

[Def Swami]

Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): 25-percent chance at No. 1, 64.3 percent at top three

Washington Wizards (20-46): 19.9-percent chance at No. 1, 55.8-percent chance at top three

Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Hornets (21-45): 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.

Sacramento Kings and New Jersey Nets (22-44): 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.

Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors* (23-43): 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.

Detroit Pistons (25-41): 1.7-percent chance at No. 1, 6.1-percent chance at top three.

Minnesota Timberwolves** (26-40): 1.1-percent chance at No. 1, 4-percent chance at top three.

Portland Trail Blazers (28-38): 0.8-percent chance at No. 1, 2.9-percent chance at top three.

Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): 0.7-percent chance at No. 1, 2.5-percent chance at top three.

Phoenix Suns (33-33): 0.6-percent chance at No. 1, 2.2-percent chance at top three.

Houston Rockets (34-32): 0.5-percent chance at No. 1, 1.8-percent chance at top three.

i'm assuming that's for this year's lottery....why don't i see the Nets on there? is that blazers pick theirs?

Yeah, the Blazers' pick is top 3 protected. So if it falls in the top 3, it goes straight to the Nets. And they got a 2.9% at getting a top 3 pick, which they don't want. I'm still trying to find how often in the history of the lottery a team without one of the 3 worst records got a top 3 pick by chance.

EDIT: Hold on, I think there's something screwy with this table. I got it from http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2012/4/27/2 ... hony-davis and I don't think it takes into account the tiebreakers.

Use this to judge the Blazers: http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-lottery-odds

Updated April 28th - final standings and after tie-breakers
1. Charlotte Bobcats - 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. Washington Wizards - 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - 138 combinations, 13.8% chance
4. New Orleans Hornets - 137 combinations, 13.7% chance
5. Sacramento Kings - 76 combinations, 7.6% chance
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via NJ) - 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
7. Golden State Warriors - 36 combinations, 3.6% chance
8. Toronto Raptors - 35 combinations, 3.5% chance
9. Detroit Pistons - 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Min) - 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. Portland Trail Blazers - 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. Milwaukee Bucks - 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. Phoenix Suns - 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. Houston Rockets - 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

# 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 0.250 0.215 0.178 0.357
2 199 0.199 0.188 0.171 0.319 0.123
3 156 0.156 0.157 0.156 0.226 0.265 0.040
4 119 0.119 0.126 0.133 0.099 0.351 0.160 0.012
5 88 0.088 0.097 0.107 0.261 0.360 0.084 0.004
6 63 0.063 0.071 0.081 0.439 0.305 0.040 0.001
7 43 0.043 0.049 0.058 0.599 0.232 0.018 0.000
8 28 0.028 0.033 0.039 0.724 0.168 0.008 0.000
9 17 0.017 0.020 0.024 0.813 0.122 0.004 0.000
10 11 0.011 0.013 0.016 0.870 0.089 0.002 0.000
11 8 0.008 0.009 0.012 0.907 0.063 0.001 0.000
12 7 0.007 0.008 0.010 0.935 0.039 0.000
13 6 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.960 0.018
14 5 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.982

So the Blazers have an 8.1% chance of landing the #3 pick, 7.1% chance of landing a #2 pick, and a 6.3% chance of landing the 1st pick.

[arkknight1988]

Assume the Nets win the #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Magic Send:

Dwight Howard
Hedo Turkoglu

Nets Send:

#1 Pick (Anthony Davis)
Brook Lopez
Marshon Brooks
Gerald Wallace
Jordan Farmar

The odds are that Dwight is going to leave anyway and I think this is a great mix of talent to help start rebuild the team.

7% chance this happens. hope u have a backup plan

[blue and white]

Assume the Nets win the #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Magic Send:

Dwight Howard
Hedo Turkoglu

Nets Send:

#1 Pick (Anthony Davis)
Brook Lopez
Marshon Brooks
Gerald Wallace
Jordan Farmar

The odds are that Dwight is going to leave anyway and I think this is a great mix of talent to help start rebuild the team.

7% chance this happens. hope u have a backup plan

yea thats a bit of a dream scenario there, 1 NJ is unlikely to get the top pick and is more likely to get the 3rd or 2nd 2 i want no part of brook lopez and having to pay him this summer. i just want the pick future picks and wallace and maybe a 3rd team who will take lopez for a pick this year or some young talent that can grow with the new core. you cant win a championship with lopez in your starting lineup

[rcklsscognition]

Yeah, the Blazers' pick is top 3 protected. So if it falls in the top 3, it goes straight to the Nets. And they got a 2.9% at getting a top 3 pick, which they don't want. I'm still trying to find how often in the history of the lottery a team without one of the 3 worst records got a top 3 pick by chance.

EDIT: Hold on, I think there's something screwy with this table. I got it from http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2012/4/27/2 ... hony-davis and I don't think it takes into account the tiebreakers.

Use this to judge the Blazers: http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-lottery-odds

Updated April 28th - final standings and after tie-breakers
1. Charlotte Bobcats - 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. Washington Wizards - 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - 138 combinations, 13.8% chance
4. New Orleans Hornets - 137 combinations, 13.7% chance
5. Sacramento Kings - 76 combinations, 7.6% chance
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via NJ) - 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
7. Golden State Warriors - 36 combinations, 3.6% chance
8. Toronto Raptors - 35 combinations, 3.5% chance
9. Detroit Pistons - 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Min) - 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. Portland Trail Blazers - 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. Milwaukee Bucks - 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. Phoenix Suns - 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. Houston Rockets - 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

# 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 0.250 0.215 0.178 0.357
2 199 0.199 0.188 0.171 0.319 0.123
3 156 0.156 0.157 0.156 0.226 0.265 0.040
4 119 0.119 0.126 0.133 0.099 0.351 0.160 0.012
5 88 0.088 0.097 0.107 0.261 0.360 0.084 0.004
6 63 0.063 0.071 0.081 0.439 0.305 0.040 0.001
7 43 0.043 0.049 0.058 0.599 0.232 0.018 0.000
8 28 0.028 0.033 0.039 0.724 0.168 0.008 0.000
9 17 0.017 0.020 0.024 0.813 0.122 0.004 0.000
10 11 0.011 0.013 0.016 0.870 0.089 0.002 0.000
11 8 0.008 0.009 0.012 0.907 0.063 0.001 0.000
12 7 0.007 0.008 0.010 0.935 0.039 0.000
13 6 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.960 0.018
14 5 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.982

So the Blazers have an 8.1% chance of landing the #3 pick, 7.1% chance of landing a #2 pick, and a 6.3% chance of landing the 1st pick.

The Blazers get the Nets pick if it is 4 or higher, so it's the Nets pick that is top 3 protected, not the Blazers pick. They don't give a pick to NJ in any scenario, that wasn't part of the deal. The Blazers could in the best case scenario get the #1 pick with their ping-pong ball and then the #4 pick with the Nets ping pong ball. That'd be sweet (they're my WC team).

[Def Swami]

The Nets traded a top three protected first-round selection to the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2011-2012 season for veteran forward Gerald Wallace. Brooklyn gets to keep the pick if it lands in the top three of the NBA Draft Lottery. If it lands anywhere else, the Trail Blazers get the selection. In that event, the Nets would not have a pick until late in the second round, 57th overall. According to odds released by the NBA, the Nets have a 7.5 percent chance of winning the lottery and getting the No. 1 pick. The Nets apparently have a 25 percent shot at landing in the top three, which would allow them to keep their pick.

That, of course, would be a huge bonus for a franchise that needs a talent infusion as it begins a new era in Brooklyn -- and tries to convince star player Deron Williams to be part of it.

25% chance the Nets get a lottery pick, higher than I expected.

[christian72589]

I can't remember where in the thread I read it at, but I thought it said something about trading Dwight to the Cavs for Irving or Thompson and a pick. Was there any legs to that??

Also I think we will hire Bower as well but would put my bid in for Weaver all day.

Irving is a no-no, it was the following :
LAL : Get Dwight
ORL : Get Thompson, Cavs 2012 Pick, Lakers 2012 Pick, Varejao (spelling)
CLE : Get Bynum, Hedo

I call bull

Aw hell nah.... disgusting

[NEM]

lol what do you mean hell naw??

if the cavs pick is 1st or second you go davis or drummond, coupled with thompson, thats a beast frontline for the next 12 years... AND we have the 19th and 24th pick in that scenario?? maybe, we move those 2 picks plus baby or JJ's expiring for a higher pick and nab rivers...

drummond
thompson
??
??
rivers

AND we clear a TON of capspace (hedo/dwight/jameer opts out/jj)

then move j-rich to minny and try and get another 1st rounder for baby and grab maybe jeff taylor or doron lamb... WHAT??? thats rebuilding on the fly...

[NEM]

i also think that since varejao's deal is only guaranteed for the next 2 seasons and 17 million, that we could trade him rather easily because he is a 10/10/2 C under 10 M per year and he is still under 30, so you clear him off the books as well

[ChildishGambino]

Beast frontline huh? you do know that Thompson is like 6"8 230 right? i'm tired of undersized guys

[WeAreVenom]

lol what do you mean hell naw??

if the cavs pick is 1st or second you go davis or drummond, coupled with thompson, thats a beast frontline for the next 12 years... AND we have the 19th and 24th pick in that scenario?? maybe, we move those 2 picks plus baby or JJ's expiring for a higher pick and nab rivers...

drummond
thompson
??
??
rivers

AND we clear a TON of capspace (hedo/dwight/jameer opts out/jj)

then move j-rich to minny and try and get another 1st rounder for baby and grab maybe jeff taylor or doron lamb... WHAT??? thats rebuilding on the fly...

Honestly, that scenario sounds pretty exciting....

I'd rather keep Dwight, of course, but that's a great second option.

We'd be on course to looking like the next Thunder, imo. Best of all, when we'd be coming into prominence, MIA would be getting old.

[Ahmadab]

What's the lowest the Cavs can pick ?

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