Chuma Okeke drafted #16 by the Orlando Magic

[ezzzp]

DJ and Fournier could both be gone by next season, as DJ is a FA and Evan can be one. So come next season we might have wished we had NAW in the wings. Or any backcourt youth, really. At this point, if both were to leave we'd be hoping to replace both with only a draft pick, an MLE and the vet min signings. If Fultz is a flop then we may have to replace him, too.

Instead now we're forced to hope that Chuma makes Gordon expendable so we can trade him. Or maybe Bamba, since we have Vuc and Birch already.

They don't have to hope that Chuma makes Gordon expendable, that's what Ross, Fournier, JI and Al-Fq are. Chuma will basically be a rookie the following season as he's going to miss most of this upcoming year. He is their long term play, not who they are counting on if Gordon is traded.

The Aaron Gordon situation is also quite a bit more complicated than that. Its actually a major decision that starts to fester next summer.

Aaron Gordon is an UFA in the summer of 2022. It is extremely rare that a player stays beyond 2 contracts with the team that drafted him. When it happens, its because that team is a championship caliber contender or a Super-Max deal is on the table. To top that off, Gordon is a west coast guy who lives and trains in California in the offseason, and has since entering the NBA. Not trading Aaron Gordon before he can walk for nothing would be a massive gamble by the FO.

From next summer to the following trade deadline his trade value will be at peak. Everyday after that it gets worse. The front office knows this. Because of that, the DJ/Fournier free agency situation and the Aaron Gordon dilemma are tied together.

There are numerous consolidation trade permutations with those three contracts that can equal a max level player coming back. Its pretty clear that if/when a trade occurs it will be for a back court player...the only thing that changes that dynamic is Fultz breaking out.

Either way, neither Chuma or NAW were short term answers, both are long term plays for future contract situations. They chose the player they thought was the best player...and based on advanced analytics, Chuma was that guy:

• PER: NAW 21.9 vs Okeke 24.5
• WS: NAW 5.5 vs Okeke 5.5
• BPM: NAW 9.0 vs Okeke 13.4
• ORtg: NAW 111.9 vs Okeke 121.2
• TS%: NAW .586 vs Okeke .597

[ezzzp]

Ross at the 3 has been our top and closing lineup for 2 1/2 years. I would have to guess by far the majority of his minutes have been at the 3.

Usually he's the first one off the bench, so I would assume Fournier continues to guard the 2 and Ross guards Isaac's man.


Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

Fournier has been the one defending SF's when he and Ross share the floor - its been pretty much that the entire time Ross has been on Magic.

Also, Ross missed almost the entire season the year before, and was struggling terribly before his injury so he wasn't a closer at all. Even this year, Ross wasn't always on the floor in final 5 minutes early on - really it wasn't until around mid to late December that he started to close games.

[spinedoc]

Ok its a fun metaphore so i will try to expand it.

Lets say we have a hammer (primary ball handler), and screwdriver (secondary ball handler) and we want to build a house with limited funds. You really like your screwdriver but its red (Fournier) and your favourite color is blue(Alexander- Walker). Are you trying to make a collection of screwdrivers or build a house? Becouse nails and screws are limited in your area and getting kind of expensive (role players, in Clifford system forwards). You are already using pins to make it look decent (Ross playing out of position).

We want a blue screwdriver or screws?

Alright, let me try and work with that a little bit. First off color doesn't matter, but I get you're trying to make a point. I can't make a hammer work like a screwdriver, no matter how hard I try. So, if all I have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Hey, you don't even have to have the exact same tool I'm looking for. If you can show me that this pair of pliers will do the trick, I'm all for it. The problem I have is I see us go hammer with four assets in a row, assets being limited. That's AG, then JI, then Okeke, and then we quadruple down with Aminu. Now you may say they are all different types of hammers, ball peen, sledge, rubber mallet, and claw. The problem is what to do when they drop off a case of screws. Its not going to take long to figure out you have the wrong tool, especially since last year when we had just the two hammers before getting the third and fourth, we had the same problem. I'm so confused as to why we needed two more, and I don't care if there was a great sale on them again this year. So, we drove that analogy in the ground, but I think its all still very valid. I really don't understand why we didn't pick up a guard in that amount of time. And yes, I question people's judgement when they can't see something that obvious. We are putting a ton of faith on Fultz. If that experiment doesn't work, its a lost year in my book. The only fix is a trade by the deadline of AG for a guard.

https://vimeo.com/7603998

Well, I'm glad someone got my hammer analogy. Now plungers, that's a different story. Everyone needs seven of them, lol.

[D J C]

To add to the discussion about his advanced metrics and diving deeper into what maybe the FO saw in the numbers:

Since ’09-’10, only two Freshman/Sophomore players had a 3%+ Steal%, 5%+ Block%, offensive rating above 120 and defensive rating below 96 while averaging double digits PPG: Zion Williamson and Chuma Okeke

Ok this is pretty specific and you can say its cherry picking.. lets expand it some..

If you’re one for advanced stats (which our FO is), the list of players since ’10-’11 with an Offensive Rating above 120, Defensive Rating below 96, OBPM 6.5+, and DBPM 6.5+:

• Zion Williamson
• Sindarius Thornwell (SR)
• Brandon Clarke (JR)
• Delon Wright (SR)
• Anthony Davis
• Victor Oladipo (JR)
• Gary Clark (SR)
• Chuma Okeke
• Mikal Bridges

The only Freshman/Sophomores on that list: Zion, AD, Chuma, and Mikal

Another interesting lists of Freshman/Sophomore players.. since ’10-’11 with an Offensive Rating above 120, Defensive Rating below 96, BPM 13+ and 400+ Points Produced:

• Zion Williamson
• Otto Porter
• Anthony Davis
• Wendell Carter Jr.
• Chuma Okeke

With less than a decade of data for those advanced stats, we can open it up a bit with some raw numbers..

Looking at him as a 3 & D prospect, we can look at total steals, blocks and 3s.. since ’92-’93, list of players with 40+ blocks, 50+ 3s, and 60+ steals while shooting 36%+ from 3:

• Kevin Durant
• Shane Battier
• Josh Howard
• Mikal Bridges
• Francisco Garcia
• Ron Artest
• Danny Green
• Chuma Okeke
• Matisse Thybulle

If you take his averages you get a similar list.. players with 1.8+ SPG, 1.2+ BPG, and 1.4+ 3/G at 36%+:

• Kevin Durant
• Denzel Livingston (of Incarnate Word)
• Shane Battier
• Josh Howard
• Danny Granger
• Robert Covington
• Nathan Healy (of Appalachian State)
• Chuma Okeke
• Matisse Thybulle
• David Johnson (of SE Missouri State)

Discounting the small school heroes, you have a list of an MVP, all stars, all-nba defense members, good-to-great role players, and two rookies

And a couple more lists for fun..

Freshman/Sophomores since ’09-’10 with a 3%+ Steal Percentage, 5%+ Block Percentage, and 400+ Points Produced:

• Chuma Okeke

Freshman/Sophomores since ’09-’10 with a 3%+ Steal Percentage, 5%+ Block Percentage, and 5+ Win Shares:

• Chuma Okeke

Freshman/Sophomores since ’10-’11 with a 1.5+ SPG, 1+ BPG, 38%+ 3PT and 10+ BPM:

• Chuma Okeke

Not saying he's a sure fire star, or guaranteed future starter, I just thought it was interesting how some of the numbers he put up last year match up historically to some pretty limited lists with mostly legit NBA players

[drsd]

• PER: NAW 21.9 vs Okeke 24.5
• WS: NAW 5.5 vs Okeke 5.5
• BPM: NAW 9.0 vs Okeke 13.4
• ORtg: NAW 111.9 vs Okeke 121.2
• TS%: NAW .586 vs Okeke .597

Alexander-Walker vs. Okeke will be a major topic over the next three years.

My point in this post: Okeke might have had a better college career, but how is his health status going to affect his performance?

Notably: as Alexander-Walker displayed NBA-level capacity in the Summer league, this is a major debate point moving forward.

p.s. I have faith in management, but Alexander-Walker is everything Orlando needed at #16. I was shocked at the selection, and therefor, hope that Okeke evolves to a starting-level quality. That justifies his selection at #16, even if Alexander-Walker goes "All World."



..

[VFX]

To add to the discussion about his advanced metrics and diving deeper into what maybe the FO saw in the numbers:

Since ’09-’10, only two Freshman/Sophomore players had a 3%+ Steal%, 5%+ Block%, offensive rating above 120 and defensive rating below 96 while averaging double digits PPG: Zion Williamson and Chuma Okeke

Ok this is pretty specific and you can say its cherry picking.. lets expand it some..

If you’re one for advanced stats (which our FO is), the list of players since ’10-’11 with an Offensive Rating above 120, Defensive Rating below 96, OBPM 6.5+, and DBPM 6.5+:

• Zion Williamson
• Sindarius Thornwell (SR)
• Brandon Clarke (JR)
• Delon Wright (SR)
• Anthony Davis
• Victor Oladipo (JR)
• Gary Clark (SR)
• Chuma Okeke
• Mikal Bridges

The only Freshman/Sophomores on that list: Zion, AD, Chuma, and Mikal

Another interesting lists of Freshman/Sophomore players.. since ’10-’11 with an Offensive Rating above 120, Defensive Rating below 96, BPM 13+ and 400+ Points Produced:

• Zion Williamson
• Otto Porter
• Anthony Davis
• Wendell Carter Jr.
• Chuma Okeke

With less than a decade of data for those advanced stats, we can open it up a bit with some raw numbers..

Looking at him as a 3 & D prospect, we can look at total steals, blocks and 3s.. since ’92-’93, list of players with 40+ blocks, 50+ 3s, and 60+ steals while shooting 36%+ from 3:

• Kevin Durant
• Shane Battier
• Josh Howard
• Mikal Bridges
• Francisco Garcia
• Ron Artest
• Danny Green
• Chuma Okeke
• Matisse Thybulle

If you take his averages you get a similar list.. players with 1.8+ SPG, 1.2+ BPG, and 1.4+ 3/G at 36%+:

• Kevin Durant
• Denzel Livingston (of Incarnate Word)
• Shane Battier
• Josh Howard
• Danny Granger
• Robert Covington
• Nathan Healy (of Appalachian State)
• Chuma Okeke
• Matisse Thybulle
• David Johnson (of SE Missouri State)

Discounting the small school heroes, you have a list of an MVP, all stars, all-nba defense members, good-to-great role players, and two rookies

And a couple more lists for fun..

Freshman/Sophomores since ’09-’10 with a 3%+ Steal Percentage, 5%+ Block Percentage, and 400+ Points Produced:

• Chuma Okeke

Freshman/Sophomores since ’09-’10 with a 3%+ Steal Percentage, 5%+ Block Percentage, and 5+ Win Shares:

• Chuma Okeke

Freshman/Sophomores since ’10-’11 with a 1.5+ SPG, 1+ BPG, 38%+ 3PT and 10+ BPM:

• Chuma Okeke

Not saying he's a sure fire star, or guaranteed future starter, I just thought it was interesting how some of the numbers he put up last year match up historically to some pretty limited lists with mostly legit NBA players

Great breakdown.

At the very least Okeke appears to be capable of becoming a very solid 3&D situational role player.

[fendilim]

How is naw a need pick at 16? we need a star, and every advance metrics points to chuma instead, theoretically.

Maybe management is looking at the long haul with the chuma pick.


I think its too early to judge the chuma pick still.

[Knightro]

Great breakdown.

At the very least Okeke appears to be capable of becoming a very solid 3&D situational role player.

This is how I feel about it.

His combination of shooting skill, defensive instincts and athleticism make me really convinced he's not going to completely bust.

Worst case, I think Okeke settles in as a solid bench stretch 4 who can make threes and defend at at least an above average level.

If he's hits the apex of his ceiling, then he's a starting forward who combines dominant off ball and help defense with knockdown 3PT shooting who can also use his athleticism to attack closeouts.

[tiderulz]

How is naw a need pick at 16? we need a star, and every advance metrics points to chuma instead, theoretically.

Maybe management is looking at the long haul with the chuma pick.


I think its too early to judge the chuma pick still.

i dont think anyone is saying Chuma wont be a good player. But NAW was a good player, and fit a need.

and to be honest right now, we dont know if either player is a star or not. No one had Donovan Mitchell being a star, nor Draymond green, tony parker, etc, etc, etc.

[ezzzp]

• PER: NAW 21.9 vs Okeke 24.5
• WS: NAW 5.5 vs Okeke 5.5
• BPM: NAW 9.0 vs Okeke 13.4
• ORtg: NAW 111.9 vs Okeke 121.2
• TS%: NAW .586 vs Okeke .597

Alexander-Walker vs. Okeke will be a major topic over the next three years.

My point in this post: Okeke might have had a better college career, but how is his health status going to affect his performance?

Notably: as Alexander-Walker displayed NBA-level capacity in the Summer league, this is a major debate point moving forward.

p.s. I have faith in management, but Alexander-Walker is everything Orlando needed at #16. I was shocked at the selection, and therefor, hope that Okeke evolves to a starting-level quality. That justifies his selection at #16, even if Alexander-Walker goes "All World."

..

I like NAW ok, but I think there is a lot of NBA/media generated artificial hype for NOLA right now and that's considerably creating a lot of overstating of Alexander-Walker's performance in SL.

Lets be realistic - he didn't display NBA-level capacity because he wasn't playing vs NBA level players. In fact 99% of those guys won't ever play in the NBA, plus those units literally met each other that week. Basically SL is a pick up game / practice scrimmage composed almost entirely of non NBA players. It doesn't mean I'm saying he's not an NBA player or can't be good, but we need to slow down on what happened in SL.

What NAW actually displayed in SL was a very high volume (20 FGA's per game) at low efficiency (41%) in combination with questionable shot selection. On top of that, he was flinging very risky passes that won't fly in the NBA...and even vs that low caliber he averaged 4 turnovers per game.

NAW looked like average looking secondary playmaker...strangely similar to early Fournier in size, slow fluidity and limited agility. I don't see that as "everything Orlando needed at #16." At #16 what Orlando and any good GM does is grab the best player available based on their assessment.

Unless their is a dramatic injury, NOBODY will know for certain who was the better pick for at least 3-4 years when there is enough development time to truly analyze the pick.

[drsd]

How is naw a need pick at 16? we need a star, and every advance metrics points to chuma instead, theoretically.

Maybe management is looking at the long haul with the chuma pick.


I think its too early to judge the chuma pick still.

The need is not Alexander-Walker per se, it is the clear hole on this roster for another SG. As this roster is currently built, there will be a lot of PG / three-PF / C rotations in game. I am not sure any of is comfortable with that given eh lack of distance shooting that causes.

And what if either Fournier or Ross goes down to a major injury? Then what?


..

[VFX]

How is naw a need pick at 16? we need a star, and every advance metrics points to chuma instead, theoretically.

Maybe management is looking at the long haul with the chuma pick.


I think its too early to judge the chuma pick still.

Definitely too early to judge the Chuma pick.

The line of thinking with NAW comes down to minute distribution and vorp for Orlando’s current roster. Orlando is currently loaded with wing talent that will be getting the lions share of minutes way before Okeke. This assumes a trade for one of Orlando’s F’s isnt made prior to Okeke returning or sometime soon after.

Fournier (3yr/$17m) and DJ (1yr/$7m expiring) are currently the only players that should take minutes from NAW despite Okeke’s advanced metrics from college. Finding a replacement to Fournier would provide needed value and would be ideal given the current cap situation.

Orlando lacked playmaking entirely last season and, barring Fultz rising from the ashes, won’t be solved with one player. That’s why it was theoretically a short and long term move considering the FO is selling Orlando as making a legitimate playoff run.

Okeke likely has a higher floor for what he provides long term. For now, he doesn’t provide anything short term due to unmitigated circumstance and minute disparity.

[zaymon]

How is naw a need pick at 16? we need a star, and every advance metrics points to chuma instead, theoretically.

Maybe management is looking at the long haul with the chuma pick.


I think its too early to judge the chuma pick still.

The need is not Alexander-Walker per se, it is the clear hole on this roster for another SG. As this roster is currently built, there will be a lot of PG / three-PF / C rotations in game. I am not sure any of is comfortable with that given eh lack of distance shooting that causes.

And what if either Fournier or Ross goes down to a major injury? Then what?


..

I dont see that clear hole at sg. We have Fournier, we have Ross, we have Frazier, we can have Jeffries. NAW is projected to be low level starter- good reserve, someone between Fournier and Ross. Our need is elite ball handler not another average joe ball handler.

If Fournier goess down we have Ross and Frazier, possibly Fultz. If Gordon goes down we have Aminu and Iwundu possibly Okeke later in the season. Seems balanced to me.

[drsd]

I dont see that clear hole at sg. We have Fournier, we have Ross, we have Frazier, we can have Jeffries. NAW is projected to be low level starter- good reserve, someone between Fournier and Ross. Our need is elite ball handler not another average joe ball handler.

If Fournier goess down we have Ross and Frazier, possibly Fultz. If Gordon goes down we have Aminu and Iwundu possibly Okeke later in the season. Seems balanced to me.

I agree that Alexander-Walker is not necessarily an NBA caliber player. But I do not agree that Orlando has a need at guard.


Anyhow: Okeke or bust !!!!
(( at #16 a 10th man on the bench is a good selection ))



..

[Knightro]

i dont think anyone is saying Chuma wont be a good player. But NAW was a good player, and fit a need.

and to be honest right now, we dont know if either player is a star or not. No one had Donovan Mitchell being a star, nor Draymond green, tony parker, etc, etc, etc.

Alexander-Walker only fit an immediate need if you think he can play point guard right now as a rookie.

If you think he's a SG, the Magic already have a 17M a year starter and a 13.5M a year backup.

He would have had the opportunity to *eventually* replace Fournier, but it certainly wouldn't have happened this year.

[PrimeThyme]

i dont think anyone is saying Chuma wont be a good player. But NAW was a good player, and fit a need.

and to be honest right now, we dont know if either player is a star or not. No one had Donovan Mitchell being a star, nor Draymond green, tony parker, etc, etc, etc.

Alexander-Walker only fit an immediate need if you think he can play point guard right now as a rookie.

If you think he's a SG, the Magic already have a 17M a year starter and a 13.5M a year backup.

Yeah he would have the opportunity to *eventually* replace Fournier, but it certainly wouldn't have happened this year.

He fits much more of a long term need than Chuma does for us. Whether you want to classify it as a longterm or short term one, its a need regardless. Ross can play backup SF and Fournier becomes an expiring contract next summer. Two of our core pieces play the same position as Chuma and we just signed another switchy forward to a 3 year contract.

You either believe he's going to become a career backup or believe he becomes good enough to have to trade one of our core pieces we've already invested heavily in. We pretty much have nothing invested into our backcourt. MCW, DJ, and Fournier more than likely won't be on this roster within 2 years and Fultz is still a huge question mark as well.

So even if you believed that neither guy can help us in the short term, I think there is an even better argument that in the longterm NAW filled a bigger need.

[spinedoc]

i dont think anyone is saying Chuma wont be a good player. But NAW was a good player, and fit a need.

and to be honest right now, we dont know if either player is a star or not. No one had Donovan Mitchell being a star, nor Draymond green, tony parker, etc, etc, etc.

Alexander-Walker only fit an immediate need if you think he can play point guard right now as a rookie.

If you think he's a SG, the Magic already have a 17M a year starter and a 13.5M a year backup.

He would have had the opportunity to *eventually* replace Fournier, but it certainly wouldn't have happened this year.

The draft came before free agency, plus Ross was playing a lot of sf for us and was no guarantee to resign. Also, we need a sg that can help facilitate the offense to help take pressure off our weak pg rotation. Frazier and Iwundu, which is also best suited at sf, can't do that either. Sure, we needed pg more so, but there wasn't much in that range at #16. Bottom line, we needed a guard more than a combo forward then, and we still do.

[VFX]

How is naw a need pick at 16? we need a star, and every advance metrics points to chuma instead, theoretically.

Maybe management is looking at the long haul with the chuma pick.


I think its too early to judge the chuma pick still.

The need is not Alexander-Walker per se, it is the clear hole on this roster for another SG. As this roster is currently built, there will be a lot of PG / three-PF / C rotations in game. I am not sure any of is comfortable with that given eh lack of distance shooting that causes.

And what if either Fournier or Ross goes down to a major injury? Then what?


..

I dont see that clear hole at sg. We have Fournier, we have Ross, we have Frazier, we can have Jeffries. NAW is projected to be low level starter- good reserve, someone between Fournier and Ross. Our need is elite ball handler not another average joe ball handler.

If Fournier goess down we have Ross and Frazier, possibly Fultz. If Gordon goes down we have Aminu and Iwundu possibly Okeke later in the season. Seems balanced to me.

It has nothing to do with the position and everything to do with the skill set. None of the players you named outside of maybe Fournier provide playmaking Orlando lacks.

[Knightro]

He fits much more of a long term need than Chuma does for us. Whether you want to classify it as a longterm or short term one, its a need regardless. Ross can play backup SF and Fournier becomes an expiring contract next summer. Two of our core pieces play the same position as Chuma and we just signed another switchy forward to a 3 year contract.

You either believe he's going to become a career backup or believe he becomes good enough to have to trade one of our core pieces we've already invested heavily in. We pretty much have nothing invested into our backcourt. MCW, DJ, and Fournier more than likely won't be on this roster within 2 years and Fultz is still a huge question mark as well.

So even if you believed that neither guy can help us in the short term, I think there is an even better argument that in the longterm NAW filled a bigger need.

No arguments from me about his ability to fill a bigger long-term need. I think NAW could have eventually been the guy to replace Evan Fournier as the starting SG for this team in probably 2 years time. Maybe 1 if he really developed or Evan lost his mind and opted out of his contract which I don't think he'll do.

That said... I very much believe the Okeke and Aminu moves give the Magic the luxury of being able to move Aaron Gordon out for a guard without suffering any significant drop off at the forward position. I also believe that guard will likely be a better overall player than NAW.

It's going to take a few more moving pieces, but the Magic are in a position now to really balance our their team, especially if Okeke ends up as good as some think he can be, for the long-haul.

[Knightro]

The draft came before free agency, plus Ross was playing a lot of sf for us and was no guarantee to resign. Also, we need a sg that can help facilitate the offense to help take pressure off our weak pg rotation. Frazier and Iwundu, which is also best suited at sf, can't do that either. Sure, we needed pg more so, but there wasn't much in that range at #16. Bottom line, we needed a guard more than a combo forward then, and we still do.

I mean yes this is technically true, but you're fooling yourself if you think the Magic weren't 100% confident that they were retaining Vucevic and Ross and signing Aminu by the time the draft rolled around.

They knew.