Official Offseason Thread 9.0: The Long Road to October

[Magic_Is_Here]

Here's a question stat:

The last time the Magic had a player log 3000 minutes played in a season was 2007-08. And that year, there were three Magicians that did so.

Name all three:

It wasn't Bo Outlaw, who logged 7 minutes the whole season.

It was probably Dwight Howard, Turkoglu, and Rashard Lewis. Dwight always played heavy minutes and I can't think of anyone else on that roster who would play that heavily without injury other than Turk and Lewis

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using RealGM mobile app

[tiderulz]

Da Silva has shown much better shooting than some more "potential talent" such as Black. I can easily see Da Silva playing 10-15 mpg right out of the gate. And he is easily big enough to play PF if needed. I see him as a combo forward. He can play either spot when one of Franz/Paolo are sitting.

One assumption here is that Black is a bad shooter. What if he isn't? I am super excited to see Black's form and release in preseason games.

we drafted Black to play PG (or at least guard) Da Silva playing shouldnt impact his minutes

[basketballRob]

From a playoff rotation perspective I feel like we improved a lot.

Ingles was unplayable in the playoffs and Fultz minutes were below mediocre.

We added KCP and Paolo, Franz and Suggs have gained great experience.

JI can possibly increase his minutes per game in the playoffs.

Ingles added a lot to the second unit during the regular season for sure but I am pretty excited to see what Black can add.

Fultz never looked himself any part of the season. He was much better the season before last. I don’t see any drop off from Fultz leaving.

Nets will also be looking to move players for 1st picks at the trade deadline we may be able to bolster the rotation with a player from the Nets.

I think you're both right. We're prob a worse regular season team but a better playoff team. Obviously if Black and Howard show us something new and better, that changes things.

Is Black and Howard taking minutes from Cole and Gary as backups? Don’t see that happening.

Black wasn't as good as them last season, but he wasn't far behind. He could pass them.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[Skybox]

I think you're both right. We're prob a worse regular season team but a better playoff team. Obviously if Black and Howard show us something new and better, that changes things.

Is Black and Howard taking minutes from Cole and Gary as backups? Don’t see that happening.

Black wasn't as good as them last season, but he wasn't far behind. He could pass them.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

Very true and, I guess- based on size and defensive ability, the best possible outcome...also, we should consider that Cole hasn't necessarily hit his ceiling either. He's still young and there's a lot to be said for never having to overcome his on-court "shyness"...he WILL take the big shots without a second thought.

[VFX]

I just know based on this fanbase and board that whenever there is a question about a young player getting real minutes, in a crowded rotation, people start making a case for interesting position-less lineups we never see.

Gary Harris played 48 minutes total last season in a 3 guard lineup with Suggs and Fultz. Doubtful Mosely decides to lean on that lineup choice rather than one with Ingles or another 6’9 forward that can shoot. It doesn’t matter if there is no NBA data on TDS. He’s a known commodity as a defender and shooter and 2-3 years older than the alternatives. That happens to matter.

Like it or not, Cole Anthony is a vet on this team now at this point. He finally doesn’t have to compete for minutes with Fultz. He’s going to be getting a ton of minutes at backup point guard. He’s not someone Mosely has to develop. He knows his role and isn’t positionally versatile enough to log minutes elsewhere.

If people want to make arguments that Jett, Caleb, and AB are going to be getting a lot of opportunities in blowouts and as injury replacements, then fine. I just don’t see the minutes being plentiful or of consequence otherwise. I would have rather they not resigned Gary Harris for this reason, but it’s just the reality of what we know Mosely will do to win basketball games.

[Knightro]

I just know based on this fanbase and board that whenever there is a question about a young player getting real minutes, in a crowded rotation, people start making a case for interesting position-less lineups we never see.

Gary Harris played 48 minutes total last season in a 3 guard lineup with Suggs and Fultz. Doubtful Mosely decides to lean on that lineup choice rather than one with Ingles or another 6’9 forward that can shoot. It doesn’t matter if there is no NBA data on TDS. He’s a known commodity as a defender and shooter and 2-3 years older than the alternatives. That happens to matter.

Like it or not, Cole Anthony is a vet on this team now at this point. He finally doesn’t have to compete for minutes with Fultz. He’s going to be getting a ton of minutes at backup point guard. He’s not someone Mosely has to develop. He knows his role and isn’t positionally versatile enough to log minutes elsewhere.

If people want to make arguments that Jett, Caleb, and AB are going to be getting a lot of opportunities in blowouts and as injury replacements, then fine. I just don’t see the minutes being plentiful or of consequence otherwise. I would have rather they not resigned Gary Harris for this reason, but it’s just the reality of what we know Mosely will do to win basketball games.

The starters are set IMO - it's gonna be Suggs/KCP/Franz/Paolo/Carter.

Isaac is going to play. Moritz is going to play. Cole is going to play. That's 8.

I am very confident Gary will at least open the season in the rotation if he's healthy. That's 9.

The question for me really boils down to the 10th and final spot.

It feels like it's between Black and da Silva.

[Knightro]

Da Silva has shown much better shooting than some more "potential talent" such as Black. I can easily see Da Silva playing 10-15 mpg right out of the gate. And he is easily big enough to play PF if needed. I see him as a combo forward. He can play either spot when one of Franz/Paolo are sitting.

One assumption here is that Black is a bad shooter. What if he isn't? I am super excited to see Black's form and release in preseason games.

we drafted Black to play PG (or at least guard) Da Silva playing shouldnt impact his minutes

Assuming Cole and Gary have rotation spots at least to open the season, there seem to be a high probability of Black having to play "out of position" to get on the court in three-guard sets.

[Knightro]

We had 12 players play at least 50 games last season and average a minimum of 13.8mpg. 14 players played over 40 games. There will be minutes and touches for everyone in the regular season and Mosley will let the cream rise to the top for the playoffs and go with his strongest guys at that point.

.

Jett, AB, and Houstan didn’t get a lot of minutes in the last 30 games of the season.

Caleb played 10 games with more than 12mpg in the last 40 games. AB played 18 games more than 12mpg in the last 40 games of the season. Jett didn’t see any minutes.

Fultz and Ingles minutes would be replaced with TDS and Gary’s minutes now that KCP is starting.

I don’t expect the rest of these three players to average 12mpg in games apart from total blowouts or injuries.

Starters: Suggs/KCP/Franz/Paolo/Carter
Secondary: Cole/Gary/TDS/JI/Moritz
Deep bench: AB/Jett/Caleb/whoever/Goga

Ingles played 68 games (17mpg), Isaac played 58 games (16mpg), Harris played 54 games (24mpg) and Fultz played 43 games (21mpg). AB played 69 games and averaged 17mpg. The point is that there is still likely to be plenty of opportunity for minutes to open up regardless of what the roster looks like in full depth on paper.

I’ll put money on it that all 3 of AB, Jett and TDS play over 50 games and average over 12mpg. AB I’ll put down for 18-20mpg. If they play well enough they’ll beat out Harris and Cole like Suggs did.

AB will be getting those Ingles’ minutes. The 2nd unit needs another playmaker/facilitator, he needs the reps, and TDS’ ego/emotional maturity is probably better prepared for being deep bench to begin with. But TDS’ offense is so wet he has a good chance to challenge Harris for minutes.

Of course there will be injuries. No team goes through the season without injuries. Guys will play as other guys get hurt. But that isn't the point.

The question is "when everyone is available, who plays and who doesn't?"

And as it stands now, it feels like there's only room for one of Black/Jett/TDS in the "everyone's healthy 10-man rotation".

[jezzerinho]

I think Cole and Black will play together for quite a lot of minutes.

[drsd]

..

[drsd]

I just know based on this fanbase and board that whenever there is a question about a young player getting real minutes, in a crowded rotation, people start making a case for interesting position-less lineups we never see.

Gary Harris played 48 minutes total last season in a 3 guard lineup with Suggs and Fultz. Doubtful Mosely decides to lean on that lineup choice rather than one with Ingles or another 6’9 forward that can shoot. It doesn’t matter if there is no NBA data on TDS. He’s a known commodity as a defender and shooter and 2-3 years older than the alternatives. That happens to matter.

Like it or not, Cole Anthony is a vet on this team now at this point. He finally doesn’t have to compete for minutes with Fultz. He’s going to be getting a ton of minutes at backup point guard. He’s not someone Mosely has to develop. He knows his role and isn’t positionally versatile enough to log minutes elsewhere.

If people want to make arguments that Jett, Caleb, and AB are going to be getting a lot of opportunities in blowouts and as injury replacements, then fine. I just don’t see the minutes being plentiful or of consequence otherwise. I would have rather they not resigned Gary Harris for this reason, but it’s just the reality of what we know Mosely will do to win basketball games.

And-1

My view is that the only players we can be certain will get regular, major-minutes court time are:

Suggs/Anthony
Caldwell-Pope
F-Wagner
Banchero/Isaac
Carter

That's only seven, so between the rest of the roster, there will be pre-season battles to shore out the last 2 or 3 rotational players. We can all argue about that - and I am sure we will - , but there are numerous scenarios where Black/Harris/da Silva/M-Wagner/Bitdaze win in or lose out in playing time for the opening night game. I think it is nearly a lock for M-Wagner over Bitadze. And then its between three players for one or two rotational slots. That's it.

The question is "when everyone is available, who plays and who doesn't?"

And as it stands now, it feels like there's only room for one of Black/Jett/TDS in the "everyone's healthy 10-man rotation".

I would add Harris and remove Howard from this list. But I agree that there are not enough minutes for the wings to all play.

[tiderulz]

One assumption here is that Black is a bad shooter. What if he isn't? I am super excited to see Black's form and release in preseason games.

we drafted Black to play PG (or at least guard) Da Silva playing shouldnt impact his minutes

Assuming Cole and Gary have rotation spots at least to open the season, there seem to be a high probability of Black having to play "out of position" to get on the court in three-guard sets.

so Gary who has no real future with the team is going to limit Black and push him to play out of position? that is horrible decision making

[eyriq]

I definitely lean towards Gary being on the third string, I don't think he's good enough to beat out AB, Jett, or TDS.

[VFX]

I just know based on this fanbase and board that whenever there is a question about a young player getting real minutes, in a crowded rotation, people start making a case for interesting position-less lineups we never see.

Gary Harris played 48 minutes total last season in a 3 guard lineup with Suggs and Fultz. Doubtful Mosely decides to lean on that lineup choice rather than one with Ingles or another 6’9 forward that can shoot. It doesn’t matter if there is no NBA data on TDS. He’s a known commodity as a defender and shooter and 2-3 years older than the alternatives. That happens to matter.

Like it or not, Cole Anthony is a vet on this team now at this point. He finally doesn’t have to compete for minutes with Fultz. He’s going to be getting a ton of minutes at backup point guard. He’s not someone Mosely has to develop. He knows his role and isn’t positionally versatile enough to log minutes elsewhere.

If people want to make arguments that Jett, Caleb, and AB are going to be getting a lot of opportunities in blowouts and as injury replacements, then fine. I just don’t see the minutes being plentiful or of consequence otherwise. I would have rather they not resigned Gary Harris for this reason, but it’s just the reality of what we know Mosely will do to win basketball games.

The starters are set IMO - it's gonna be Suggs/KCP/Franz/Paolo/Carter.

Isaac is going to play. Moritz is going to play. Cole is going to play. That's 8.

I am very confident Gary will at least open the season in the rotation if he's healthy. That's 9.

The question for me really boils down to the 10th and final spot.

It feels like it's between Black and da Silva.

I would buy it being Anthony Black IF we had more data with him previously playing that position and actually being a distributor. Da Silva is 6’9 and plays the position with size advantage. He’s basically Franz lite.

If we are going to assume Cole and Gary are on the floor with AB, then what is he actually doing out there positionally? People are writing off Cole because he had a terrible second half of last season sharing and splitting minutes on the floor with Fultz. It was obvious.

This depends on where people think TDS is with his game. If he’s so far behind in the rotation that Mosely would rather play a younger Anthony Black out of position than him, then he wasn’t a good draft pick.

[SOUL]

Lineups are way more fluid than people think, in every league. Especially with injuries always playing a factor and changing the course of decisions. What happens during the first few weeks may be one thing, but isn't an indicator of anything in the meat of the season and the playoffs.

[Knightro]

so Gary who has no real future with the team is going to limit Black and push him to play out of position? that is horrible decision making

Expectations have changed.

They won 47 games last year and were a 5 seed. The goal is to win more and finish with a higher seed than last year.

Gary Harris isn't going from 26 MPG over the final 2.5 months of the regular season and playoffs to third string. He's just not. I don't know what else to say about it.

Now Gary has missed 177 games over the last 5 years, an *average* of 35 missed games per season. So the odds of him staying healthy and playing 70-80 games seems virtually non-existent. His injury history will very obviously open the doors for other players to fill in. And if those guys play much better than he was playing, he perhaps won't get his spot back so quickly or easily.

But I'm very confident he won't begin the season as a third stringer if he's healthy.

[tiderulz]

so Gary who has no real future with the team is going to limit Black and push him to play out of position? that is horrible decision making

Expectations have changed.

They won 47 games last year and were a 5 seed. The goal is to win more and finish with a higher seed than last year.

Gary Harris isn't going from 26 MPG over the final 2.5 months of the regular season and playoffs to third string. He's just not. I don't know what else to say about it.

Now Gary has missed 177 games over the last 5 years, an *average* of 35 missed games per season. So the odds of him staying healthy and playing 70-80 games seems virtually non-existent. His injury history will very obviously open the doors for other players to fill in. And if those guys play much better than he was playing, he perhaps won't get his spot back so quickly or easily.

But I'm very confident he won't begin the season as a third stringer if he's healthy.

then someone in the front office or coaching staff needs to be fired. You dont draft a PG prospect at 5 and then push him to the bench for years or play him out of position. you dont. not for Gary Harris. otherwise, you drafted wrong.

[VFX]

so Gary who has no real future with the team is going to limit Black and push him to play out of position? that is horrible decision making

Expectations have changed.

They won 47 games last year and were a 5 seed. The goal is to win more and finish with a higher seed than last year.

Gary Harris isn't going from 26 MPG over the final 2.5 months of the regular season and playoffs to third string. He's just not. I don't know what else to say about it.

Now Gary has missed 177 games over the last 5 years, an *average* of 35 missed games per season. So the odds of him staying healthy and playing 70-80 games seems virtually non-existent. His injury history will very obviously open the doors for other players to fill in. And if those guys play much better than he was playing, he perhaps won't get his spot back so quickly or easily.

But I'm very confident he won't begin the season as a third stringer if he's healthy.

then someone in the front office or coaching staff needs to be fired. You dont draft a PG prospect at 5 and then push him to the bench for years or play him out of position. you dont. not for Gary Harris. otherwise, you drafted wrong.

This is why I gave a nice hearty laugh when they resigned Gary Harris after landing KCP.

It was the FO saying "we don't trust the youth at all and we want to push for more wins than development".

There is no other way to justify it. AB, Jett, and even Caleb Houstan could be fighting for those minutes. Not happening with Gary Harris backing up KCP after starting for us in the playoffs. He's not a third string player in Mosely's eyes. We already have data proving that.

Would I rather they gave those real minutes to AB or Jett? Yes because it makes more sense in the long run. I'm just saying Mosely's job is to win games and Gary Harris is on the roster.

[Knightro]

then someone in the front office or coaching staff needs to be fired. You dont draft a PG prospect at 5 and then push him to the bench for years or play him out of position. you dont. not for Gary Harris. otherwise, you drafted wrong.

I have zero qualms with criticizing this front office. I think they've done a particularly poor job of putting some of these guys in the proper positions to succeed with their roster decisions.

I warned everybody for a long time that this team was going to end up becoming "victims" of their own success. You can't go backwards in the name of development when everything is trending forward.

[RichCollab]

Goga is an insurance policy and so is Harris.

KCP or Suggs out plug in Harris.
WCJ is out? Goga starts.

Harris wasn’t brought back to be a full time rotation piece.