89Magicfan wrote:neuraldarwinism wrote:will put it here too
hollinger breakdown and ranking
5. Anthony Black, 19, 6-7 Fr. PG, Arkansas
I am possibly irrationally out over my skis here, but I love this guy. Black reminds me of Jason Kidd at times, a big, smart, defensively active guard who impacts winning in so many other areas that the lack of a jump shot becomes secondary. Black is also among the younger players in this cohort, with an early 2004 birthdate, and thus time is on his side when it comes to finding his stroke.
Black is a huge point guard who could potentially also play on the wing but moves his feet well enough on the perimeter that he can legitimately guard the one at the pro level. He combines that with some quick leaping, zipping off the ground to surprise shooters with shot contests and using verticality in the basket area very effectively.
Offensively, I’ve been a big fan of Black all year because he can handle, pass and make correct decisions. His handle can get a little wobbly at times, especially in his right hand, and he made too many turnovers overall, but some of that stems from his limited shooting forcing him to drive into the teeth of the defense.
Black has a slow release, a pronounced ball dip and seemingly not a ton of confidence in the entire enterprise, but we’re not talking about DeAndre Jordan here: Getting his shot to at least a 1-in-3 proposition in a two-year span shouldn’t be a massively daunting task.
If he can do that, his size, feet and IQ should more than take care of the rest and make him a fixture in the league for years.
sam vecenie (the athletic) breakdown and ranking
08. Anthony Black
STRENGTHS
Came in at 6-foot-5 3/4 without shoes at the combine with a strong 210-pound frame. His 8-foot-6 1/2 standing reach gives him
elite size for someone who plays point guard. Has superb lateral quickness and a good first step. On the ground, he makes things
happen quickly. In the air, he’s a good vertical athlete. Can really leap off two feet. Had some impressive dunks on baseline
drives and baseline cuts this past season. He’s a legitimate NBA-level athlete despite not getting as much credit for that as he
should. Beyond the athleticism, Black is maybe the best processor of basketball in this draft class. His basketball IQ is through
the roof, and it helps him with his overall reactivity.
Black’s a superb defender in large part because of those skills. Does a terrific job at the point of attack. It’s not all that surprising
given his tools, but he also has good lateral footwork on that end. He slides to keep opposing players in front of his chest,
then uses his body and doesn’t allow them to go through him. Beyond that, he’ll also push into opposing players’ space and
really disrupt what they’re trying to do. His length is also very disruptive, and he gets pokes and deflections against smaller
ballhandlers. He always has active, outstretched hands. Great at contesting shots because of it and even occasionally blocking
shots on-ball. To top it off, I love the way he fights through screen actions. Can get over the top or go underneath and quickly get
back into the play. He stays low but also knows how to get skinny to get through screens and blow them up, as well as how to trail
and recover using his length as a real disruptive force. He gets his hands in there on dribble handoffs to try to force turnovers.
Averaged 2.1 steals per game, and those steals regularly led to pick-six opportunities for easy buckets the other way. It also helps
that he’s strong and switchable and should have no problem defending one through three at the next level.
He’s also good as an off-ball defender and is active and disruptive as a force across the board. He has this impressive skill where he feels like he can kind of bait ballhandlers into doing what he wants them to do in help. He’ll hard stunt onto ballhandlers
and recover quickly, speeding them up into making bad decisions. His sense of timing and willingness to dig into ballhandlers’
dribble from corners is strong. He has great anticipation on lazy passes and makes some impressive rotations. His sense of
anticipation when scrambling to help off his man to put out a fire is strong. Can fly around and help all over the place. He is also
good at locking and trailing on off-ball screens, staying attached and bothering opposing players as they look to receive passes
with his length. I think he’s a positive NBA defender from day one.
Offensively, Black’s game is all about pressuring defenses in transition, pushing tempo and processing the game at an
exceedingly high level as a passer. This seems to be where that aggressive football mentality comes into play. He’s constantly
looking to attack defenders and find ways to put the defense on their heels. He’ll grab-and-go on the break and immediately
push either via his own dribble or a quick outlet pass up the court. Even in the half court, if he catches and sees a driving angle,
he’s immediately taking up as much space as he can, attacking and trying to make something happen. He wants to get two feet
into the paint and force defenders into rotation so that he can make a read. He’ll put pressure on the rim when he wants to, but
he also has a real sense of pace. He knows when to decelerate and when to push deeper into the paint. Gets to the rim about
three times per game in the half court, a great number given how spatially challenged Arkansas was. Finishes at a solid rate
when he gets there. Made 53.8 percent of his shots at the basket, per Synergy, a very strong number given how many of these
shots were heavily contested due to collapsing defenses.
Passing is Black’s best skill. He’s terrific at reading where defenders are going and how they step up to him or rotate around and
finding the open man. Anticipates where to put the ball before he catches the ball himself. Has a constant awareness of where
opposing defenders are in help. Dishes out faster ball reversals than anyone else in the class, with touch passes before he puts
the ball on the deck himself and early hit-aheads. Black plays like one of those guys who doesn’t care if he gets credit for the
box-score stat. He’s reactive, but he’ll also open passing lanes with manipulative eye movement and try to create open angles
that way. He’ll recognize where the help is and have a plan off one dribble to force a defender toward him, then hit the pass to
the open man from a variety of angles.
Black’s also great out of ball screens. Because he’s so big and strong, he knows how to keep his man on his hip and lock him away.
Again, he does all this very quickly. Hits cross-corner skips, hits lobs. Has every pass in the book. He’ll make early reads, and
as soon as he sees a passing lane and his teammate has an angle to score – particularly to cutters and rollers – he’ll hit it and let
that person do the work. Will drive and hit wraparounds to guys in the dunker spot or the roller. Black averaged 3.9 assists per
game this past season, but his assist numbers don’t tell the story of how good he is as a passer and playmaker. Arkansas was a
mess offensively and left a lot of passes on the table for him. The wide-open NBA will be a boon for his game. He’ll immediately
be valuable in this regard. Arkansas beat its opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions when Black was on the court versus
virtually tying them when he was off the court, with the offense making up the lion’s share of that impact.
WEAKNESSES
It’s all about the jump shot with Black. The significant question here is whether he’ll be able to hit any shots. Mechanically, there
is a lot to work on. Everything is extremely slow, and he takes a lot of time to get his feet up under him and load into the jumper
both off the catch and off the bounce. Off the dribble, has a bit of a hitch into loading up after getting his feet under him. Doesn’t
seem to get a lot of weight transfer from his lower half. His rhythm seems completely off. Misses are all over the place. Teams are
willing to go way under his ball screens and dribble handoffs all the time, knowing he can’t really hurt them. That became a real
issue in the second half of Arkansas’ season due to Nick Smith’s absence and Brazile’s season-ending injury. Black had no space
to drive as teams just clogged the paint, and he couldn’t do anything to stop anyone.
He is a bit better off the catch. The numbers aren’t disastrous, as he hit 32.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot looks at Arkansas, per
Synergy. If he can take them off the hop and not have to take that little hitched mini-shuffle step he takes into a shot typically,
the rhythm and release looks much cleaner. This presents a building block. But his jumper off the dribble was quite poor. Made
just 30 percent of them overall, per Synergy, including just 24.2 percent of his pull-up 3s.
I don’t love Black’s handle if we’re comparing it to other lead guards across the league. Sometimes he really struggles to separate
by changing direction or pace. Knows how to play at pace out of ball screens and can keep guys on his hip with his size but struggles to go slow too fast to get defenders off balance once they recover or stay in front of him. Doesn’t really break them
down off the bounce. Not a crazy amount of shiftiness. Needs that angle and that first step. Good defenders can really keep their
chest in front of him unless he’s already coming downhill off a screen or in transition. He’s so anticipatory that he typically can
get that angle with quick decision-making, but he won’t have it if he’s playing as a primary creator.
All of this leads to questions about how exactly Black will score at the next level. If he struggles to shoot it and doesn’t really
separate at a super high level, can he find angles in the half court to create offense? Especially if he’s playing point guard? That’s
a real question. He’ll score by pushing in transition and finding creases to drive after advantages are created for him, making
him possibly better suited for more of a secondary creator role as opposed to a primary option. However, secondary creators
often play off the ball, which means shooting becomes an even more important skill. Finding the right role and the right offense
for him will be critical.
SUMMARY
Black is the kind of player I tend to love and sometimes tend to overrate. I love bigger guards who have real athleticism and
can process the game well when playing at full speed. These types of players who can clearly think about the game at an
exceptionally high level tend to be able to figure it out when it comes down to it. That’s my bet on Black. I think he’ll figure it
out. He has a fast brain, and he is athletic enough to make things happen out on the court. He must be able to at least continue
to show growth as a shooter, though. There have been enough flashes with him off the catch to where I think he has potential to
make it work. And if that skill translates, he should be able to really make an impact as the kind of big secondary initiator and
creator whom every team is looking for next to a high-end perimeter star. A bet on him shooting is worth a mid-lottery pick to
me, because if the shooting translates, he’s going to be a very impactful player. And he’ll be the kind of player who might impact
winning at the highest levels of the league.
Black may turn into a solid player but Jason Kidd was an elite passer who made some of the most jaw dropping no look passes ever outside of Magic Johnson.
To be fair, a lot of player comps are sometimes related to the older years of the players. The same way I mention Paolo Banchero looks like an old LeBron James is the same way Anthony Black probably got compared to an old Jason Kidd instead of young.
