O'Connor: The Magic Should Trade for Jrue Holiday

[Rainwater]

What a terrible idea.

Don’t worry, there is a 0% chance of this actually happening, lol.

[SHAQ32]

What a terrible idea.

There don’t worry, there is a 0% chance of it actually happening, lol.

Thank you for consoling me.

[JojoSlimbiid]

“It’s funny cause my wife and I had this conversation; I think it was two days ago. She was like, ‘Are you serious after this contract? Are you serious about retiring?’ I’m like, 'Yes, I feel very strongly about it,'” Holiday said.

His contract doesn't expire this year, he has player's option for year later, worth near $36M.


And even if he retires, you just get free $35M in books.


I haven't seen anybody yelling we should offer 12 unprotected picks for him. He should be rather cheap take. Like, Harris, Fultz, 2024 pick with some protection on it.

Odds are, Fultz, Harris ,2024 pick won't be here next year anyway

So we're trading almost nothing for two years of a vet thinking about retirement while I assume wanting to play for a ring in the last two years of his career? Like the 35 in the books means nothing to me because no one of any note is signing here. There is literally no needle being moved here either way.

in economy you call those moves opportunity cost. Cost of missed opportunity.

what would you rather have:

1) two players who both can leave for nothing in a year
2) one player that can retire in a year but who is much better than those two, but with much lower chance of staying




There isn't "winning" solution here. Fultz can play himself into $25M a year contract and leave to some Spurs next year for nothing. Cole can simply become too expensive for what Magic want to pay and leave. Jrue can flat out retire.

To be clear I don't necessarily disagree with anything you're saying. I don't really see any steps to title contention for the Magic period outside of a swing on a trade for a superstar who doesn't want to be here and hoping that they stay. The Magic starting with this year will likely be in okay to good territory almost regardless of peripheral moves for like the next 5-6 years. So I'm apathetic to moves like trading for Jrue which won't do anything really.

[VFX]

It’s funny how everyone says we are “too young” but then can’t commit to getting rid of guys on contract extensions for championship caliber vets because nobody can see the value.

Some of you are delusional on how Orlando acquires talent outside of the draft.

[SOUL]

It’s funny how everyone says we are “too young” but then can’t commit to getting rid of guys on contract extensions for championship caliber vets because nobody can see the value.

Some of you are delusional on how Orlando acquires talent outside of the draft.

No quotations, we are young - it's a fact. If you look at the first 7 years of Giannis, LeBron, Jokic or whatever it's the equivalent of getting some all-star guy while they're in their 2nd/3rd year. **** takes time. Doesn't mean you have to wait that long, but you have to assess the roster without bias.

Denver really making big moves during Jokic's 6th and 7th seasons when they saw the potential.

Brook and Jrue joining Giannis in his 6th and 7th seasons when they saw how good they were.

Yeah, if you can guarantee a Jrue trade makes him want to stay, will help bring other people, and makes us a way better team. Why not do it?

Realistically, it's like many of the other "get better quick" trades where we give up assets for someone who doesn't move the needle too much and then we cap ourselves where we have to suddenly consider moving better assets for someone else because we splurged on a 1-2 year rental for slightly better results.

[VFX]

It’s funny how everyone says we are “too young” but then can’t commit to getting rid of guys on contract extensions for championship caliber vets because nobody can see the value.

Some of you are delusional on how Orlando acquires talent outside of the draft.

No quotations, we are young - it's a fact. If you look at the first 7 years of Giannis, LeBron, Jokic or whatever it's the equivalent of getting some all-star guy while they're in their 2nd/3rd year. **** takes time. Doesn't mean you have to wait that long, but you have to assess the roster without bias.

Denver really making big moves during Jokic's 6th and 7th seasons when they saw the potential.

Brook and Jrue joining Giannis in his 6th and 7th seasons when they saw how good they were.

Yeah, if you can guarantee a Jrue trade makes him want to stay, will help bring other people, and makes us a way better team. Why not do it?

Realistically, it's like many of the other "get better quick" trades where we give up assets for someone who doesn't move the needle too much and then we cap ourselves where we have to suddenly consider moving better assets for someone else because we splurged on a 1-2 year rental for slightly better results.

Yeah, I get annoyed by “get better quick” at the expense of young talent with untapped potential. That lowers the ceiling for a short term gain. I don’t view a hypothetical trade like this as such a case dependent upon the assets.

The FO will need to consolidate assets. For who I don’t know. The playing time will become a problem this season if not next. I’m not saying it should Jrue, but Orlando isn’t going to pay everyone and decisions will have to be made as these contract extensions start coming up for anyone not named Paolo or Franz.

[pepe1991]

It’s funny how everyone says we are “too young” but then can’t commit to getting rid of guys on contract extensions for championship caliber vets because nobody can see the value.

Some of you are delusional on how Orlando acquires talent outside of the draft.

No quotations, we are young - it's a fact. If you look at the first 7 years of Giannis, LeBron, Jokic or whatever it's the equivalent of getting some all-star guy while they're in their 2nd/3rd year. **** takes time. Doesn't mean you have to wait that long, but you have to assess the roster without bias.

Denver really making big moves during Jokic's 6th and 7th seasons when they saw the potential.

Brook and Jrue joining Giannis in his 6th and 7th seasons when they saw how good they were.

Yeah, if you can guarantee a Jrue trade makes him want to stay, will help bring other people, and makes us a way better team. Why not do it?

Realistically, it's like many of the other "get better quick" trades where we give up assets for someone who doesn't move the needle too much and then we cap ourselves where we have to suddenly consider moving better assets for someone else because we splurged on a 1-2 year rental for slightly better results.

it's a fact. If you look at the first 7 years of Giannis, LeBron, Jokic or whatever it's the equivalent of getting some all-star guy while they're in their 2nd/3rd year. **** takes time.

Cavs in particular did a lot to help Lebron, it simply didn't work the way they planned, but not because of lack of trying.

In Lebron's second year they made swing trade for previous 4th overall pick, all rookie first team member and guy who averaged near 14 ppg, in times when allstars were made by averaging 13 or 16 ppg. Drew Gooden.

They also , in 2005 added 15th best nba scorer after breakout year where he averaged 22-6-5 and 3 steals, at age of 26 and went to second round of playoffs as second best player. Larry Hughes.

Before entering 5th season of Lebron, they swinged again for Ben Wallace.



Bucks biggest FA in history was Greg Monroe. That addition happened before start of Giannis third season.


Nuggest, in offseason of Jokic second year, entering third, signed one of biggest FA in their history, 4 times allstar, Paul Millsap.




Whole argument about Jrue comes to what would be return value.

I would argue that Magic "assets" such are Cole Anthony, Fultz, Harris aren't really "assets".
Those are soon to be FAs who can all leave , or be resigned on big new contracts and way harder to move after they resign.

I like Cole. I like his 6th man role and his small contract. I'm not sure i like Cole Anthony enough to pay him $70M over 4 years. Nor i think 6th man should make such money. Yet when i look around a league, to me it's obvious that type of salary is what his agent will be looking at. That's Sexton, Hardaway, Bertans, PJ Washington type of money. To me it's overpay for esencially chucker backup.

Same with Fultz. We can debate do we like him or not. But one thing isn't debatable, we all like him more on $17M a year than $27M a year. But still, in league where Kyle Kuzma , Cam Johnson, Jordan Poole make $27M a year, are you sure you can keep him for lower than $25?

And those things tend to stuck up in negative fashion for teams that want to rebuild in right way. Fear of losing assets leads toward ugly overpay of same, and by default , devalues assetes. Because one of biggest value of rookie scale contracts is how cheap they are. Once they stop being cheap, they aren't that valuable. And here we are, with like 80% of roster in FA over 2 years. At some point your assets will either:
a) be traded
b) be gone
c) be overpayed

There isn't 4th , better alterantive. There simply isn't scenario where you keep Cole , Fultz, Suggs, Harris, Franz or any of them on "team friendly" contracts. It's professional league, not charity game.


I'm confused how you can in same time be against " quick fixes " but also be annoyed for complete lack of roster consolidation?
That's oxymoron to me.

In current situation, without injuries, both lottery selected rookies are outside rotation. In same time, Magic aren't even locked for playin, let alone playoff spot.
So you are developing, but in order to do so, you will start handing massive new contracts just to continue to evaluate? How is that good thing?

Or you think they can flip bunch of scrubs for non-existin-allstar-under age of 22- point guard who also shoots like Curry and all it will take to get him will be Fultz and Okeke? That trade doesn't exist. Get over yourself.

[darmani]

I don't understand this. Hasn't Jrue specifically said he is playing on his last contract in order to be with his wife who had brain cancer a few years ago?

“It’s funny cause my wife and I had this conversation; I think it was two days ago. She was like, ‘Are you serious after this contract? Are you serious about retiring?’ I’m like, 'Yes, I feel very strongly about it,'” Holiday said.

His contract doesn't expire this year, he has player's option for year later, worth near $36M.


And even if he retires, you just get free $35M in books.


I haven't seen anybody yelling we should offer 12 unprotected picks for him. He should be rather cheap take. Like, Harris, Fultz, 2024 pick with some protection on it.

Odds are, Fultz, Harris ,2024 pick won't be here next year anyway

3 days ago:

Some felt Holiday’s retirement following a 2024-25 player option as a certainty, giving the Bucks a firm two-year window with their “Big Three” and/or “Core Four” with Lopez anchoring the middle.

So, yeah, about the retirement thing…

“No, I don’t plan on retiring. I don’t plan on retiring,” Holiday told the Journal Sentinel, leaning back on an orange leather couch set back off the balcony of SRGN Studios in Los Angeles.

“Just them being my friends and we’ve talked about stages in basketball and sometimes you go through modes or hard spots where like, even with my family, maybe the best thing to do is retire or even just being tired and being exhausted, playing a lot of basketball. But no.

“My answer is no, I’m not retiring.”

[Furinkazan]

him being 33 and retiring soon also us having 2893039023903 point guards ...I wouldnt offer more than Gary Harris
Ok Ill throw in Okeke or Houstan

[tiderulz]

Pros
-He's still REALLY good - 22nd overall in EPM, 30th overall in BPM, 36th overall in RPM last season
-He can play both PG and SG and can shoot 3s which makes him a good fit with any Magic guard
-He's still one of the very best defensive guards in the game - NBA All-Defense 5 of the last 6 years
-Great in the locker room - 3× NBA Teammate of the Year
-He's shown zero signs of decline
-He likely wouldn't cost THAT much in a trade because he's an expiring contract

Cons
-He's 33 years old
-He's been a bit injury prone, missing approximately 15 games per year in each of the last 5 seasons
-He's an expiring contract
-He's going to command (and get) a very large contract that takes him into his mid 30s
-The Magic could sign him next offseason as a free agent without giving up any assets

he isnt an expiring contract. No way he turns down his option year at $39mil

[Knightro]

he isnt an expiring contract. No way he turns down his option year at $39mil

I think that depends.

If someone is willing to give him 3/100 in the summer, doesn't he just go ahead and lock that in as his final contract instead of taking 1/39 and risking decline?

He'd have to be certain he could sign for at least 2/60 in the summer of 2025 to come out even, ya know?

It's almost identical to the Khris Middleton situation this past summer. He had a player option this summer for just over $40M and everyone was like "oh there's no way he'll turn that down" and then he did and signed 3/93 instead. He took a small decrease in year 1 to ensure he'd be paid highly in years 2 and 3.

For aging players, locking in longer deals (even at a small decrease in the first year salary) sometimes makes more sense. It eliminates the risk of decline on the court costing them future money.

[Skybox]

Timeline is as overrated as value of “firsts”…a better, well-rounded vet PG can make the whole team better and that development in the young players will outlive the vet PG’s tenure on the team. We have so many prospects that just rot and devalue when backing up other marginally better players. Most firsts end up as rotation players or immaterial contributors. Very high frps are another story…outside of top 5, it’s a total crapshoot…we’ve already got a load of young guys with unclear upsides. Hoarding prospects devalues them and when they get extended because,( while still unproven and untested) we’re scared they might blow up elsewhere. If we draft a PG at #6, they need to get on the court…even if he busts, moving out a very limited guy who’s expecting/getting a big payday while still showing next to nothing is not much of a step backward…Fultz has gotten better and he’s a good story but not even top 20 PG and, specifically a bad fit. Worst kind of treadmill, imo…lazy or awful FO to draft guys, bury them, pay them, stagnate, repeat. Some fans are acting like we’ve got a ton at risk…we’re still at the bottom. Two untouchable studs and a lot of questions.

I ask again…if Fultz and Cole were on other teams, would we be planning our FA offers for them? Maybe Cole, but not starter $$

[Skybox]

Timeline is as overrated as value of “firsts”…a better, well-rounded vet PG can make the whole team better and that development in the young players will outlive the vet PG’s tenure on the team. We have so many prospects that just rot and devalue when backing up other marginally better players. Most firsts end up as rotation players or immaterial contributors. Very high frps are another story…outside of top 5, it’s a total crapshoot…we’ve already got a load of young guys with unclear upsides. Hoarding prospects devalues them and when they get extended because,( while still unproven and untested) we’re scared they might blow up elsewhere. If we draft a PG at #6, they need to get on the court…even if he busts, moving out a very limited guy who’s expecting/getting a big payday while still showing next to nothing is not much of a step backward…Fultz has gotten better and he’s a good story but not even top 20 PG and, specifically a bad fit. Worst kind of treadmill, imo…lazy or awful FO to draft guys, bury them, pay them, stagnate, repeat. Some fans are acting like we’ve got a ton at risk…we’re still at the bottom. Two untouchable studs and a lot of questions.

I ask again…if Fultz and Cole were on other teams, would we be planning our FA offers for them? Maybe Cole, but not starter $$

I guess I’m saying I’d rather “waste” an overvalued pick and risk a great player walking after an impactful year than stay in the mud and watch not great players walk (or much worse get extended) at the end of yet another mediocre year.

[RichCollab]

Jrue would have to want to be here before I trade for him. He would take his player option money and work on getting healthy as possible this season on the Magic. I don’t think he would be engaged and isn’t going to put his body on the line.

[VFX]

Timeline is as overrated as value of “firsts”…a better, well-rounded vet PG can make the whole team better and that development in the young players will outlive the vet PG’s tenure on the team. We have so many prospects that just rot and devalue when backing up other marginally better players. Most firsts end up as rotation players or immaterial contributors. Very high frps are another story…outside of top 5, it’s a total crapshoot…we’ve already got a load of young guys with unclear upsides. Hoarding prospects devalues them and when they get extended because,( while still unproven and untested) we’re scared they might blow up elsewhere. If we draft a PG at #6, they need to get on the court…even if he busts, moving out a very limited guy who’s expecting/getting a big payday while still showing next to nothing is not much of a step backward…Fultz has gotten better and he’s a good story but not even top 20 PG and, specifically a bad fit. Worst kind of treadmill, imo…lazy or awful FO to draft guys, bury them, pay them, stagnate, repeat. Some fans are acting like we’ve got a ton at risk…we’re still at the bottom. Two untouchable studs and a lot of questions.

I ask again…if Fultz and Cole were on other teams, would we be planning our FA offers for them? Maybe Cole, but not starter $$

I guess I’m saying I’d rather “waste” an overvalued pick and risk a great player walking after an impactful year than stay in the mud and watch not great players walk (or much worse get extended) at the end of yet another mediocre year.

The best way to evaluate risk between prospects in potential trades like this one (it won’t happen) has to be based on objective data.

Cole and Fultz have the most time on the court and contract extensions. The FO spent a #15 pick and a low risk trade between the two of them in terms of asset return.
Anthony Black has no game time data as a #6 pick. Suggs has another 2 seasons as the #5 pick.

That’s how you measure who needs to be moved before handing out deals to the Paolo/Franz supporting cast. Rookies don’t get moved for vets unless they are on a team that is competing now. Very rarely is that the case otherwise.

What this FO has/will do is pay everyone while they continue to evaluate. That’s what they’ve been doing since they got here. They crush value of players by holding onto them for too long without taking necessary risk Fournier,Ross,Bol,Bamba,etc. etc.

I look at some of the transactions over the last few years with the Cavs. The traded basically nothing for Markkanen who became amazing in Utah, then moved him, Sexton, and a bunch of lotto picks for Mitchell. Now, will it pay off? That depends on Mobley and Garland. That’s the kind of move Orlando needs to make at this point.

It’s going to require a risk instead of waiting for player value to decrease while you hand them large deals. They knew Markk and Sexton weren’t going to work with who they wanted to build around, investing in Mobley and Garland, and pulled the trigger. Orlando has to do the same with Paolo and Franz. The idea that they had the perfect roster prior to landing either of them is stupidity, which is why I believe Black can’t be on the block.

[Residual-Heat]

Spurs in: Fultz
Spurs out: 2024, 2026 2nd round picks, Birch, Graham

Magic in: Jrue
Magic out: Denver pick, 2024 1st top 8 protected, Fultz, Harris

Portland in: Harris, Graham, Birch (all expiring contracts), 2024 magic 1st top 8 protected, Denver 2025 1st, 2024 Spurs 2nd round pick, 2026 Spurs 2nd round pick.
Portland out: Jrue.

Portland get a good 1st, a likely late 1st, a high 2nd round pick, and a future 2nd round pick.
Magic get to upgrade at PG.
Spurs get a PG that will help Wemby, Vassell, Sochan for atleast a year.

[cedric76]

Spurs in: Fultz
Spurs out: 2024, 2026 2nd round picks, Birch, Graham

Magic in: Jrue
Magic out: Denver pick, 2024 1st top 8 protected, Fultz, Harris

Portland in: Harris, Graham, Birch (all expiring contracts), 2024 magic 1st top 8 protected, Denver 2025 1st, 2024 Spurs 2nd round pick, 2026 Spurs 2nd round pick.
Portland out: Jrue.

Portland get a good 1st, a likely late 1st, a high 2nd round pick, and a future 2nd round pick.
Magic get to upgrade at PG.
Spurs get a PG that will help Wemby, Vassell, Sochan for atleast a year.

Yukkkk

[Knightro]

Magic in: Jrue
Magic out: Denver pick, 2024 1st top 8 protected, Fultz, Harris

I would do this in a heartbeat. And I'd offer Holiday a large, but short-term years extension on top of it.

[Bensational]

I’d rather keep Fultz at this point. His stats compared to JRue at the same age are pretty close to identical, with JRue shooting slightly more from 3 as the only real difference.

JRue age 24 (6th season)
32.6 mpg
14.8 ppg (13.4fgas, 3.4 3fgas, 1.8ftas)
3 rpg
6.9 apg
1.6 spg
2.3 tov

Fultz age 24 (6th season)
29 mpg
14 ppg (11.4fgas, 1.5 3fgas, 2.4ftas)
3.9 rpg
5.7 apg
1.5 spg
2.3 tov

I’d rather gamble on us unlocking the next JRue in Fultz who is a player on his incline instead of taking a better and more experienced version of him who is on his decline.

JRue is a great player, don’t get me wrong, but I also don’t think his level of greatness is beyond the reach of Fultz or Suggs. I don’t think our players need him to teach us how to fight for a playoff spot either.

[cedric76]

Magic in: Jrue
Magic out: Denver pick, 2024 1st top 8 protected, Fultz, Harris

I would do this in a heartbeat. And I'd offer Holiday a large, but short-term years extension on top of it.