Official Orlando Magic Training Camp Thread - Practices Underway

[jezzerinho]

Do you agree with this framing?

Here’s a breakdown of variance in NBA wins and the percentage explained:

Talent & Fit — 50%
Health & Availability — 12%
Shooting Variance & Luck — 12%
Schedule & Rest/Travel Context — 8%
Coaching & Tactics — 7%
Effort & Execution Intensity — 6%
Home-Court & Arena Effects — 3%
Officiating Variance — 2%

If that’s the model, then the debate over effort boils down to whether the swing is closer to zero or closer to six percentage points.

These are just made up numbers.

Never met anyone on realgm more determined to concoct a parallel "reality" in an attempt to present pure opinion as fact.

Total nonsense.

[tooler]

Not sure if Suggs was actually on the court or just ran in from the sideline to dap Paolo.

From the angle he appeared, he must've been on the sideline unless he wanted to let his team play 3 on 5 for some reason.

But hey, we can officially say he's taking some sort of contact! Haha!

[eyriq]

Do you agree with this framing?

Here’s a breakdown of variance in NBA wins and the percentage explained:

Talent & Fit — 50%
Health & Availability — 12%
Shooting Variance & Luck — 12%
Schedule & Rest/Travel Context — 8%
Coaching & Tactics — 7%
Effort & Execution Intensity — 6%
Home-Court & Arena Effects — 3%
Officiating Variance — 2%

If that’s the model, then the debate over effort boils down to whether the swing is closer to zero or closer to six percentage points.

These are just made up numbers.

Never met anyone on realgm more determined to concoct a parallel "reality" in an attempt to present pure opinion as fact.

Total nonsense.

Set the drive-by aside. It’s a model and clearly labeled as such and it forces trade-offs. If you think effort is bigger, tell us what gets smaller. Is it coming out of coaching? talent? schedule? luck? Put your own decomposition on the table (sums to 100%):

Talent & Fit — __%
Health & Availability — __%
Shooting Variance & Luck — __%
Schedule & Rest/Travel Context — __%
Coaching & Tactics — __%
Effort & Execution Intensity — __%
Home-Court & Arena Effects — __%
Officiating Variance — __%

Then give a sentence or two on why each change. Otherwise, it’s just hand-waving.

[jezzerinho]

There is no model. Or there are several models and all of them are transitory. Its a fools errand - any attempt you or I make would be wrong and probably very wrong.

My opinion is that drive to excel, excellent coaching and outlier physical abilities are the vast majority of the success pie.

But thats a separate discussion.

Back to the point. If you dial down effort & intensity to a significant degree on the defensive end, your defense will be worse by a significant margin. You can't convince me with a 1000 "models" of the contrary. So spare yourself and us.

[drsd]

Do you agree with this framing?

Here’s a breakdown of variance in NBA wins and the percentage explained:

Talent & Fit — 50%
Health & Availability — 12%
Shooting Variance & Luck — 12%
Schedule & Rest/Travel Context — 8%
Coaching & Tactics — 7%
Effort & Execution Intensity — 6%
Home-Court & Arena Effects — 3%
Officiating Variance — 2%

If that’s the model, then the debate over effort boils down to whether the swing is closer to zero or closer to six percentage points.

My percentages summed to 100 %
Talent and fit — 58%
Health and availability — 18%
Shooting variance and luck — 9%
Coaching and tactics — 6%
Schedule and rest/travel — 5%
Home court and arena — 2%
Effort and execution intensity — 1%
Officiating variance — 1%

Why the shifts:
Talent is a bit underweighted in your list. Once you fold in that talent drives shot quality, defence without fouling, and scheme ceiling, it needs to be the majority.
Health is bigger: injuries move rotations and staggered minutes in ways that compound.
Shooting variance still matters but a chunk of what looks like “luck” is actually talent driven (shot quality, shooter quality), so I trim it.
Coaching lands near 5–7 for season long effects; larger spikes show up in series or short windows.
Effort regresses over 82 and is mostly mediated by talent, culture, and health — it is not six points at season scale.


What that means in wins (think “share of explainable variance,” not additive wins)
Rule of thumb: 1 percentage point ≈ 0.82 wins over 82.

Talent and fit ≈ 48 wins worth of the explainable pie
Health and availability ≈ 15 wins
Shooting variance and luck ≈ 7–8 wins
Coaching and tactics ≈ 5 wins
Schedule and rest/travel ≈ 4 wins
Home court and arena ≈ 1–2 wins
Effort and execution ≈ ~1 win
Officiating variance ≈ ~1 win
Practical swings you actually see in a season
Health: typical swing 3–8 wins, outliers bigger.
Shooting variance: 2–5 wins.
Coaching/tactics: 1–3 wins season long.
Schedule: 1–3 wins depending on back to backs, travel, and timing luck.
Effort: usually 0–2 wins once you average out.
Home-court officiating: each 0–1 win net over a season.



A bottom line on “effort”
If the question is whether effort is near zero or near six percentage points, the real answer is much closer to zero at season scale — about one percent on average, occasionally nudging two when culture collapses or surges.

..

[eyriq]

Do you agree with this framing?

Here’s a breakdown of variance in NBA wins and the percentage explained:

Talent & Fit — 50%
Health & Availability — 12%
Shooting Variance & Luck — 12%
Schedule & Rest/Travel Context — 8%
Coaching & Tactics — 7%
Effort & Execution Intensity — 6%
Home-Court & Arena Effects — 3%
Officiating Variance — 2%

If that’s the model, then the debate over effort boils down to whether the swing is closer to zero or closer to six percentage points.

My percentages summed to 100 %
Talent and fit — 58%
Health and availability — 18%
Shooting variance and luck — 9%
Coaching and tactics — 6%
Schedule and rest/travel — 5%
Home court and arena — 2%
Effort and execution intensity — 1%
Officiating variance — 1%

Why the shifts:
Talent is a bit underweighted in your list. Once you fold in that talent drives shot quality, defence without fouling, and scheme ceiling, it needs to be the majority.
Health is bigger: injuries move rotations and staggered minutes in ways that compound.
Shooting variance still matters but a chunk of what looks like “luck” is actually talent driven (shot quality, shooter quality), so I trim it.
Coaching lands near 5–7 for season long effects; larger spikes show up in series or short windows.
Effort regresses over 82 and is mostly mediated by talent, culture, and health — it is not six points at season scale.


What that means in wins (think “share of explainable variance,” not additive wins)
Rule of thumb: 1 percentage point ≈ 0.82 wins over 82.

Talent and fit ≈ 48 wins worth of the explainable pie
Health and availability ≈ 15 wins
Shooting variance and luck ≈ 7–8 wins
Coaching and tactics ≈ 5 wins
Schedule and rest/travel ≈ 4 wins
Home court and arena ≈ 1–2 wins
Effort and execution ≈ ~1 win
Officiating variance ≈ ~1 win
Practical swings you actually see in a season
Health: typical swing 3–8 wins, outliers bigger.
Shooting variance: 2–5 wins.
Coaching/tactics: 1–3 wins season long.
Schedule: 1–3 wins depending on back to backs, travel, and timing luck.
Effort: usually 0–2 wins once you average out.
Home-court officiating: each 0–1 win net over a season.



A bottom line on “effort”
If the question is whether effort is near zero or near six percentage points, the real answer is much closer to zero at season scale — about one percent on average, occasionally nudging two when culture collapses or surges.

..

Thanks for humoring me and thinking critically about the topic instead of emotionally digging as if this was some religious article of faith!

I like the shifts. Talent and fit definitely deserve the lion share of credit, good point.

[tooler]

If you don't think defensive effort was a major contributor to this team's recent success, then I question whether you even watched the games. And I never say this.

The entire thesis of the 2023-2024 season was blowing flat-footed teams out of the water in the 1st quarter. It wasn't until halfway through the season that teams caught on.

I don't have a dog in the fight, I'm just flabbergasted that a Magic fan doesn't believe in the impact of the core identity of this team over the last few years. Huh?

[eyriq]

If you don't think defensive effort was a major contributor to this team's recent success, then I question whether you even watched the games. And I never say this.

The entire thesis of the 2023-2024 season was blowing flat-footed teams out of the water in the 1st quarter. It wasn't until halfway through the season that teams caught on.

I don't have a dog in the fight, I'm just flabbergasted that a Magic fan doesn't believe in the impact of the core identity of this team over the last few years. Huh?

Spoiler, Franz and Paolo are really good players.

[Audi]

Do you agree with this framing?

Here’s a breakdown of variance in NBA wins and the percentage explained:

Talent & Fit — 50%
Health & Availability — 12%
Shooting Variance & Luck — 12%
Schedule & Rest/Travel Context — 8%
Coaching & Tactics — 7%
Effort & Execution Intensity — 6%
Home-Court & Arena Effects — 3%
Officiating Variance — 2%

If that’s the model, then the debate over effort boils down to whether the swing is closer to zero or closer to six percentage points.

My percentages summed to 100 %
Talent and fit — 58%
Health and availability — 18%
Shooting variance and luck — 9%
Coaching and tactics — 6%
Schedule and rest/travel — 5%
Home court and arena — 2%
Effort and execution intensity — 1%
Officiating variance — 1%

Why the shifts:
Talent is a bit underweighted in your list. Once you fold in that talent drives shot quality, defence without fouling, and scheme ceiling, it needs to be the majority.
Health is bigger: injuries move rotations and staggered minutes in ways that compound.
Shooting variance still matters but a chunk of what looks like “luck” is actually talent driven (shot quality, shooter quality), so I trim it.
Coaching lands near 5–7 for season long effects; larger spikes show up in series or short windows.
Effort regresses over 82 and is mostly mediated by talent, culture, and health — it is not six points at season scale.


What that means in wins (think “share of explainable variance,” not additive wins)
Rule of thumb: 1 percentage point ≈ 0.82 wins over 82.

Talent and fit ≈ 48 wins worth of the explainable pie
Health and availability ≈ 15 wins
Shooting variance and luck ≈ 7–8 wins
Coaching and tactics ≈ 5 wins
Schedule and rest/travel ≈ 4 wins
Home court and arena ≈ 1–2 wins
Effort and execution ≈ ~1 win
Officiating variance ≈ ~1 win
Practical swings you actually see in a season
Health: typical swing 3–8 wins, outliers bigger.
Shooting variance: 2–5 wins.
Coaching/tactics: 1–3 wins season long.
Schedule: 1–3 wins depending on back to backs, travel, and timing luck.
Effort: usually 0–2 wins once you average out.
Home-court officiating: each 0–1 win net over a season.



A bottom line on “effort”
If the question is whether effort is near zero or near six percentage points, the real answer is much closer to zero at season scale — about one percent on average, occasionally nudging two when culture collapses or surges.

..

Thanks for humoring me and thinking critically about the topic instead of emotionally digging as if this was some religious article of faith!

I like the shifts. Talent and fit definitely deserve the lion share of credit, good point.

The only variant that really must be accounted for 100% is if any players ate Taco Bell pregame.

[basketballRob]

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If I'm reading the numbers correctly...

BLACK JERSEYS: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Jamal Cain, Paolo Banchero, Orlando Robinson
WHITE JERSEYS: Anthony Black, Jett Howard, Noah Penda, Jonathan Isaac, Collin Castleton

On the sidelines: Tyus Jones, Goga Bitadze, Wendell Carter Jr.

Not sure if Suggs was actually on the court or just ran in from the sideline to dap Paolo.

Isaac got schooled

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using RealGM mobile app

[RookieStar]

Any day 2 vids and pics?

When and against who is our 1st pre-season game again?

[BadMofoPimp]

BMP is most excited for this season since Dwight days.

Jase likes to shoot. Hope not a black hole like Cole.

“My shooting ability. I think that’s the biggest thing for me. That’s where I took a big step I would say from high school to college. I’m always looking to shoot (and I’m) ready to shoot at all times. (Looking forward to) just showing that off.” - Jase

Pablo likes Penda

“I like him a lot. He’s pretty quiet as a person, but his game is the opposite. He wreaks havoc out there on the floor. He has a great motor. He just plays really hard. He actually has a pretty good feel offensively, too, for just how to make passes, when to make a play, when to be aggressive and when to play within the team. I like what I see, for sure.” – Paolo Banchero on Penda

Franz on Bane

“You can already feel how he’s going to change the trajectory of the team and how we are going to play and set a good example. How he goes about his work as well, but especially offensively, I think it’s going to change quite a bit how we play.”
“I think he’s a helluva player,” said Magic forward Franz Wagner. “I thought right away that he fits really well into what we needed. Obviously, he had a great run with Memphis. Just the way he plays. He can do stuff on the ball (and) he can create for other people, but he’s not necessarily ball dominant. So, I think that fits our group extremely well.”– Franz Wagner

Suggs shooting for Opening night now

“(Opening night), that’s my goal. My goal was training camp, which I had to let go. A little bittersweet. But I’m really placing it all in God’s hands. I’m kind of taking that out of my psyche. I’m taking that out of my control and giving it to Him. I’m really approaching every day with the intention to do everything in my power, so that I can be available and ready for the boys and the squad come game one. So, obviously, that would be ideal, but I think the everyday process of coming in here, being on the table, getting my body work done, coming in the weight room, (and doing everything I can to hit every muscle group).” - Suggs

Mose on fast break converts.

“We talked a lot this summer of our ability to convert. You have the No. 2 defense in the NBA. You hang your hat on the defensive end and our ability to get out in transition was high. Our ability to convert is where we have to improve. Being able to hang our hat on the defensive end still, but get out and push the pace faster in transition after you get those stops, after you get those steals, after you make those turnovers, you just have to make sure you finish on the other end.” – Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley

Pablo goes all out on the 3

“One part of my game I worked on his summer was definitely my three-point shot. Also, just my finishing – creative finishes, finishing around the basket, stuff like that. So, excited to showcase that.” - Banchero

Magic is a family:

“It’s just the people, from top to bottom,” Bane explained. “Starting with (Magic President of Basketball Operations) Jeff (Weltman) and (Magic head coach Jamahl) Mosley (and then) it trickles down through the players (and) support staff. They’re just good people. We had Magic family day (on Sunday). Everyone brought their family. and the kids were playing around, running around, and doing their thing. (It was an) organic vibe. No need to force it. It’s been a breath of fresh air, for sure.”

Bane and Suggs best buds. Best Backcourt in NBA?
Bane talks lots of smack

Bane spent a lot of time with his soon-to-be backcourt running mate Jalen Suggs at the AdventHealth Training Center this summer. While Suggs was going through the rehab process and his own offseason training routine, Bane was in the building attempting to build bonds with the staff and new teammates. It’s that open dialogue that has Suggs believing they can eventually be one of the best backcourt tandems in the NBA.

“We’ve had a lot of great conversations to be honest,” said Suggs. “He’s been around – especially this past month – and in the building, which I have been as well. So, it’s created a great space for us to be around and have conversations … I’ve seen him play in runs here and be just an absolute dawg (and) talk the most smack in the building.”

Great stat on Bane

In 69 regular season games this past year, Bane averaged 19.2 points on 48.4 percent overall shooting, 39.2 percent 3-point shooting and 89.4 percent free throw shooting. He was the only player in the league to reach all three of those marks among qualified players.

Weltman likes this team. Sound familiar?

“For us, I’ve never been more excited since I’ve been here, personally,” said Magic President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman. “I feel we have a team that’s capable of accomplishing big things. Everyone has come in with the right mindset. Everyone is together. And the vibe in the building has been really exceptional the last couple of weeks.”

Jones and Bane getting acclimated

Thus far, Bane and Jones have done their part to accelerate the acclimation process. They’ve connected with their teammates, taken young players under their wings, had meaningful chats with head coach Jamahl Mosley, and one-on-one conversations with Banchero and Franz Wagner to see how they can assist in pushing this team forward.

Jones is happy.

Jones: “The organization, first and foremost (has stood out). It’s nice to come in to work every day. The (AdventHealth Training Center) is amazing. And just the people. From top to bottom, from the front office to the coaching staff to the equipment guys and strength staff, everyone has been extremely welcoming. That’s made it easy for me. But everyone is also on the same page. Everyone is focused and ready to go. So, it’s been a good first couple of weeks for me.”

Moe gonna take the time to come back at 100%, nothing less. We want him at 100% come playoffs.

Moe Wagner: “You want to get this right. You only have one body; you only have one career. I’m not rehabbing every day for hours to just get it almost right. I want to get it all the way right. This is my baby. I’ve taken care of it for nine months now, and I’m going to get this all the way right. Believe me. So, regardless of the circumstances, when I play, you’ll know that I’m ready ... I don’t expect anything to change, other than play winning basketball. For me, I want to make this as seamless as possible, so that none of you guys have to ask me about my knee ever again.”

Bane and the monster.

Dell’s ability caught the attention of one of his newest teammates, Bane, who recently called Carter a “monster” on the Kevin O’Conner show.

“I had a great summer,” said Carter. “One of my first summers in the past two or three years where I haven’t had to worry about any injuries. Just (focused on) training and getting better on and off the court. Expectations for myself going into this year are to be that dawg night in and night out for this team. Hit the glass hard every night no matter what happened the night before or whoever we’re playing. It doesn’t matter. Just being that dawg.”

Black aggressive?

“I think this year, I can be more aggressive and just make it easier on those other (Magic) players on the court,” said Black. “Just continuing to be aggressive on both ends. I think that’s an easy standard I can have for myself and something I can do every game.”

Jase shadowing the vets, Penda works his shot, Slim dropped weight shooting for 82 game season, Jett (improving mentality?) Soon to be gone.

Richardson has been tied to the hip of veterans like Bane and Jones and is eager to soak up all the knowledge he can … Penda spent a lot of the offseason improving his shot mechanics and confidence in taking shots … Isaac has dropped some weight and is feeling amazing. His goal this season is to play all 82 games … Jett Howard focused on improving his mentality and daily habits this offseason. He believes he can help Orlando on both ends of the floor this year.

https://www.nba.com/magic/news/the-5-biggest-orlando-magic-storylines-being-talked-about-at-the-adventhealth-training-center-20251001

[thelead]

I wasn't the biggest fan of the Penda pick but I think I like it just because he's a big body defender that will make Paolo work during practices

[Knightro]

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[Knightro]

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[Knightro]

Early indications are if Suggs can't play, that Tyus would be in the starting lineup.

[Catledge]

Early indications are if Suggs can't play, that Tyus would be in the starting lineup.

Are you going by jerseys in practice videos, or did somebody give a quote on it?

[Knightro]

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[tiderulz]

Early indications are if Suggs can't play, that Tyus would be in the starting lineup.

unpopular take. If Suggs cant get healthy this year, serious discussion needs to be about moving him. played 45 games or less in 3 out of 4 seasons.

[sChOlaRlY_Magi]

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It's amazing to see Paolo give up the ball that close to the rim after a fumble.

He does so because he knows Bane will convert it.

I can't wait for this season!