Official Offseason Thread 9.0: The Long Road to October

[drsd]

Who?

Over the last ~20 games, Suggs predominantly started either with Harris or Houstan. So in that, Suggs was the "PG"; in bold bunny quotes.

EDIT: from games 71-82, 11 games Orlando needed wins in, the team went 5-6. It was a dreadful closeout. Suggs was a "PG" in those games.

[pepe1991]

Who?

Over the last ~20 games, Suggs predominantly started either with Harris or Houstan. So in that, Suggs was the "PG"; in bold bunny quotes.

EDIT: from games 71-82, 11 games Orlando needed wins in, the team went 5-6. It was a dreadful closeout. Suggs was a "PG" in those games.

I would not call anybody who averages 3,3 apg " point guard". That's amount of assists Toby Harris, Nikola Vučević, AD collect, not cracking top 75 in APGs.

[fendilim]

This was Black's playing time from March to playoffs ( without playoffs) when Gary Harris was able to play:
3:13
27:34
22:50
11:50
1:47
DNP
2:44
9:01
4:43
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
1:29
1:37
DNP
5:16


17 games.
6 DNPs
average PT - 8 min a game.

Also don't get caught into semantics, being "in rotation" on Magic means way less than on 99% of other teams, because Magic have tendency to throw 12 men in single game, but in reality out of 12, at least 3 of them go in game just to not log DNP-CD near their name and play 2-3 sporadic min through mainly second quater, where stakes are still pretty low.


Problem with Magic roster build up is fact that nobody really can play PG to a point where that player would considered "no brainer decision" to start or come off bench as PG. So you go with Suggs in starting lineup, despite fact he sucked as PG, and off bench you go with Cole, despite fact he sucked as PG as well. Not really because it's perfect situation, but because nobody else can.

Black himself didn't really show much of playmaking ( nor got too much chance, but also never looked capable nor comfortable with ball to being with ). And you have resigned Harris on 1+1 year and your biggest addition was KCP, who will average 30- 32 mpg at SG and his backups won't really get lot of repetition on that position, because KCP is career 30 mpg guy.

Some things will work itself out, players get hurt, and get hurt often. We have no clue how Isaac's health will hold up, Suggs is also prone to injuries, so are Harris, Carter etc. Some things will be work in progress.

not really.

He played PG this year, his best year.

Who?

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4868/positions#tab-team_efficiency

[pepe1991]

not really.

He played PG this year, his best year.

Who?

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4868/positions#tab-team_efficiency

He was thrown into nba as "pg" and sucked.
In second year he improved as player once he was stripped from PG- duties.
Third year he was defacto nothing but SG and that's best we got from him.


His passing numbers aren't even good by combo guard standards.

Just random Bogdan vs Suggs playmaking outlook.
Suggs (32) , Bogdan (30,4) passes a game at average.
Suggs 2,7 assists, vs Bogdan 3,1
Secundary passes 0,4 vs 0,4
Potential assists 4,8 vs 5,6
points created by assists 7,1 vs 7,9

So basically Bogdan passes less but his passes lead to better looks for opponents than Suggs. And nobody considers Bogdan playmaker, matter of fact he plays behind -two playmakers.

Now you telling me you can trust Suggs at PG? Based on what? His college team was notorious for not running pick&roll because Suggs couldn't execute it.

Suggs pick&roll percentile through years:
2023-24 - 36th
2022-23 -54th
2021-22- 13th

For crying out loud, guy averages 2,7 apg. Literally there are several centers with better court vision & better passing chops than him.

He has his strengths , but playmaking or any sort of advanced thinking isn't one of them for him. He tends to make bad basketball decisions more often than not, that's why spot up shooting is great "spot" for him. Can't overthink open shot.

[drsd]

To add to pepe's thought line, last year the Magic was 27th in apg. And the Magic was 24th in TOs pg. So clearly there were major ball handling problems averaged over the whole team. This ain't on any one player. The team is simply poor at ball movement and TO prone. Both have been true for a long, long time.

Orlando was at a horrible apg/TO of 1.68. For perspective, the league average was 1.96. (The Pacers was at 2.39 as a comparison for elite ball movement; Denver at 2.34).

[pepe1991]

To add to pepe's thought line, last year the Magic was 27th in apg. And the Magic was 24th in TOs pg. So clearly there were major ball handling problems averaged over the whole team. This ain't on any one player. The team is simply poor at ball movement and TO prone. Both have been true for a long, long time.

Orlando was at a horrible apg/TO of 1.68. For perspective, the league average was 1.96. (The Pacers was at 2.39 as a comparison for elite ball movement; Denver at 2.34).

Magic don't have players that are good ballhandlers ( pure ballhandling skills) in general.
Fultz was by far most talented ballhandler and his handles could take him from point A to point B.

Now, i'm not sure who's most gifted player at ability to keep dribble alive under pressure. Probably toss between Cole, Franz and Banchero, and non of them is actually all that amazing at it.

WIll be interesting to see will some teams try to play pressure defense on Magic for this specific reason.

[Skybox]

Yeah, I don't think you can make a strong case for Harris over AB. Harris was replaced by KCP and brought back at 50% the cost. To Ben's point, Mosley started AB over Harris for a significant number of games. Rookie AB played nearly as well, and made more of an impact, than Harris. Sophomore AB is going to eat Harris' lunch and personally sit him down on the deep bench. As much as anything AB is the #6 pick and the team is committed to playing and developing him as a PG.

I think the probability that Black is in the rotation is over 80%. The consistent blind spot this fan base has for AB is wild. He'll likely beat out TDS and Jett, and he'll likely beat out Harris otherwise.

I’d guess we’re all HOPEFUL that AB beats out Harris and others…but there’s reason to doubt. His ceiling is so much higher, particularly on a team so pathetic at moving the ball and so turnover-prone…but any AB talk is based on his draft profile more than anything he’s actually shown in the NBA. He’s shown VERY little so far and a desperate fanbase is celebrating every tiny glimpse…like when Fultz hits a 3 at the end of the season and he’s next year’s Curry. Low volume 3pt shooting is not so easy to extrapolate.

I want a PG…preferably a big lockdown defender who can handle the ball, post up smaller defenders, and hit open 3’s - so I’m rooting for AB, but, again, that’s more hopeful than expectant.

[p0peye]

Who?

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4868/positions#tab-team_efficiency

He was thrown into nba as "pg" and sucked.
In second year he improved as player once he was stripped from PG- duties.
Third year he was defacto nothing but SG and that's best we got from him.


His passing numbers aren't even good by combo guard standards.

Just random Bogdan vs Suggs playmaking outlook.
Suggs (32) , Bogdan (30,4) passes a game at average.
Suggs 2,7 assists, vs Bogdan 3,1
Secundary passes 0,4 vs 0,4
Potential assists 4,8 vs 5,6
points created by assists 7,1 vs 7,9

So basically Bogdan passes less but his passes lead to better looks for opponents than Suggs. And nobody considers Bogdan playmaker, matter of fact he plays behind -two playmakers.

Now you telling me you can trust Suggs at PG? Based on what? His college team was notorious for not running pick&roll because Suggs couldn't execute it.

Suggs pick&roll percentile through years:
2023-24 - 36th
2022-23 -54th
2021-22- 13th

For crying out loud, guy averages 2,7 apg. Literally there are several centers with better court vision & better passing chops than him.

He has his strengths , but playmaking or any sort of advanced thinking isn't one of them for him. He tends to make bad basketball decisions more often than not, that's why spot up shooting is great "spot" for him. Can't overthink open shot.

Hey, Bogi can definitively play a role of secondary playmaker and even a PG in short spurts.

[Knightro]

The Magic’s most used five man lineup last year - in both the regular season and in the playoffs- had Gary Harris in it.

When Mosley had every player on the roster available to him over the final two months of the season and the playoffs, he chose to start Harris and play him 26 MPG.

I get that people want to see the younger guys play consistent minutes, it just feels totally unrealistic to expect Mosley to not play a guy he clearly trusts.

I would imagine that Mose believes he now has 48 minutes worth of completely trustworthy players at the shooting guard slot with KCP starting and Harris coming in after him.

[MasterGMer]

I can predict AB's growth will be one of the biggest pivotal factors of this upcoming season. Am I right?

[p0peye]

I can predict AB's growth will be one of the biggest pivotal factors of this upcoming season. Am I right?

Yep, couple of more inches and he is new Isaac.

[eyriq]

The Magic’s most used five man lineup last year - in both the regular season and in the playoffs- had Gary Harris in it.

When Mosley had every player on the roster available to him over the final two months of the season and the playoffs, he chose to start Harris and play him 26 MPG.

I get that people want to see the younger guys play consistent minutes, it just feels totally unrealistic to expect Mosley to not play a guy he clearly trusts.

I would imagine that Mose believes he now has 48 minutes worth of completely trustworthy players at the shooting guard slot with KCP starting and Harris coming in after him.

Context matters. Mosley was choosing between Harris, rookie AB, Okeke, and Houstan. He did choose AB on several occasions over Harris. He ultimately settled on Harris. Now he has KCP, sophomores AB and Jett, Harris, and Houstan. KCP will start. AB and Jett are both going to be better this year than last year due to player development. Harris, at best, will be the same.

To me, it's obvious that AB will beat out Harris, without me factoring in what I think is actually best for this team long-term. Heck, I think Jett has a non-negligible chance at beating out Harris.

Regardless of what we want to believe we're still playing for the future. We're still developing players. Also, Harris just isn't that good, right now.

[eyriq]

Read on Twitter

?t=4xAtc7UtSSFdUbvf3g9Y6w&s=19

[VFX]

Mosely decided last season that he wanted to run a two 3&D guard lineup with Suggs and Harris. The good outweighed the bad in terms of lacking ball handling. He wanted the ball in the hands of Paolo and Franz. It’s not deeper than that.

The Front Office this offseason decided that lineup was in line with their thinking. Therefore, they signed KCP and want to run it back using the same logic.

Now, you can think they want Suggs to step up in terms of playmaking. I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case. I believe they want Franz and Paolo “running the offense” with the ball in their hands.

Why do I believe that? Because if playmaking in the back court was important to them they would have signed or traded for a point guard with good assist/turnover numbers. You don’t change the way an entire system works on offense out of hoping youth develops skill sets you haven’t currently witnessed. Putting Paolo and Franz in better positions on the court, to score more efficiently, is more important than increasing your shooting outlet by 1 position.

I’ve come to accept this will be the system based on the starting lineup. Do I think it’s smart? No. I’ve argued against it. I don’t believe Paolo and Franz are distributors on that level. So I guess I’m hoping AB proves them wrong and becomes a real point guard that can run the show next to Suggs. Wishful thinking IMO.

[Knightro]

Context matters. Mosley was choosing between Harris, rookie AB, Okeke, and Houstan. He did choose AB on several occasions over Harris. He ultimately settled on Harris. Now he has KCP, sophomores AB and Jett, Harris, and Houstan. KCP will start. AB and Jett are both going to be better this year than last year due to player development. Harris, at best, will be the same.

To me, it's obvious that AB will beat out Harris, without me factoring in what I think is actually best for this team long-term. Heck, I think Jett has a non-negligible chance at beating out Harris.

Regardless of what we want to believe we're still playing for the future. We're still developing players. Also, Harris just isn't that good, right now.

We shall see.

I've never lied to ya

[Knightro]

Mosely decided last season that he wanted to run a two 3&D guard lineup with Suggs and Harris. The good outweighed the bad in terms of lacking ball handling. He wanted the ball in the hands of Paolo and Franz. It’s not deeper than that.

The Front Office this offseason decided that lineup was in line with their thinking. Therefore, they signed KCP and want to run it back using the same logic.

Now, you can think they want Suggs to step up in terms of playmaking. I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case. I believe they want Franz and Paolo “running the offense” with the ball in their hands.

Why do I believe that? Because if playmaking in the back court was important to them they would have signed or traded for a point guard with good assist/turnover numbers. You don’t change the way an entire system works on offense out of hoping youth develops skill sets you haven’t currently witnessed. Putting Paolo and Franz in better positions on the court, to score more efficiently, is more important than increasing your shooting outlet by 1 position.

I’ve come to accept this will be the system based on the starting lineup. Do I think it’s smart? No. I’ve argued against it. I don’t believe Paolo and Franz are distributors on that level. So I guess I’m hoping AB proves them wrong and becomes a real point guard that can run the show next to Suggs. Wishful thinking IMO.

I agree with you on this one.

I think offensively the Magic are going to look remarkably similar to last year. The ball is going to be in Paolo and Franz's hands and they'll be surrounded by three shooters in Suggs/KCP/Carter in the starting lineup. They'll continue to play relatively slow on offense to maximize energy on defense and on the glass.

The only thing I don't know is how the 2nd unit is going to go offensively. Ingles handled so much ball handling and play initiation with that group. It feels like we might see an uncomfortable amount of Cole early on and if he hasn't bounced back from his rough 4th season, it might get ugly.

Any tangible improvements for the Magic offensively overall though will likely come in two ways primarily (with the obvious caveats of health not mentioned)

1. Paolo reducing his turnovers.
2. Franz and Paolo increasing their 3PT volume and 3PT percentages.

[eyriq]

We shall see.

I've never lied to ya

You were 100% right about them benching AB out of the gate last season. You really ready to take that bet two years in a row? Haha

I guess your position is more nuanced since you are saying Harris beats out AB/Jett/TDS, and then it comes down to AB vs TDS.

Personally I think AB is the backup PG and the real subplots are Cole vs Jett for that microwave scoring role and Harris vs TDS for that combo forward role.

[VFX]

Mosely decided last season that he wanted to run a two 3&D guard lineup with Suggs and Harris. The good outweighed the bad in terms of lacking ball handling. He wanted the ball in the hands of Paolo and Franz. It’s not deeper than that.

The Front Office this offseason decided that lineup was in line with their thinking. Therefore, they signed KCP and want to run it back using the same logic.

Now, you can think they want Suggs to step up in terms of playmaking. I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case. I believe they want Franz and Paolo “running the offense” with the ball in their hands.

Why do I believe that? Because if playmaking in the back court was important to them they would have signed or traded for a point guard with good assist/turnover numbers. You don’t change the way an entire system works on offense out of hoping youth develops skill sets you haven’t currently witnessed. Putting Paolo and Franz in better positions on the court, to score more efficiently, is more important than increasing your shooting outlet by 1 position.

I’ve come to accept this will be the system based on the starting lineup. Do I think it’s smart? No. I’ve argued against it. I don’t believe Paolo and Franz are distributors on that level. So I guess I’m hoping AB proves them wrong and becomes a real point guard that can run the show next to Suggs. Wishful thinking IMO.

I agree with you on this one.

I think offensively the Magic are going to look remarkably similar to last year. The ball is going to be in Paolo and Franz's hands and they'll be surrounded by three shooters in Suggs/KCP/Carter in the starting lineup. They'll continue to play relatively slow on offense to maximize energy on defense and on the glass.

The only thing I don't know is how the 2nd unit is going to go offensively. Ingles handled so much ball handling and play initiation with that group. It feels like we might see an uncomfortable amount of Cole early on and if he hasn't bounced back from his rough 4th season, it might get ugly.

Any tangible improvements for the Magic offensively overall though will likely come in two ways primarily (with the obvious caveats of health not mentioned)

1. Paolo reducing his turnovers.
2. Franz and Paolo increasing their 3PT volume and 3PT percentages.

Paolo does many things well. He's going to be the hub on offense for this team moving forward coupled with Franz. However, I don't know how anyone watched 82 games last season and came away with "Paolo is a playmaker that should be running the show". He didn't look comfortable at all. Everything looked sloppy, slow, and forced when asked to create against a defender in space. He did look great catching the ball, creating off 1-2 dribbles, and in transition though. Not entirely sure why nobody else noticed that.

Franz looks better with the ball, but he's looking to score downhill at the rim 90% of the time very predictably. Even more predictable when he isn't shooting the basketball.

Personally, I believe the answer to your question in the second unit relies entirely on Cole and Moe. Gary Harris, TDS, and whoever else people think will be added to that mix with Isaac are all secondary options until proven otherwise. I'd venture to guess Cole will undoubtedly bounce back. He no longer has to be in weird quasi dual lineups with Fultz or falling out of rhythm walking on eggshells to earn his spot as a backup. Anthony Black is who he should be worrying about taking his job. Nobody has seen the offense yet reliable enough to lean on. Until that happens, Cole is the vet off the bench running things.

[fendilim]

Who?

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4868/positions#tab-team_efficiency

He was thrown into nba as "pg" and sucked.
In second year he improved as player once he was stripped from PG- duties.
Third year he was defacto nothing but SG and that's best we got from him.


His passing numbers aren't even good by combo guard standards.

Just random Bogdan vs Suggs playmaking outlook.
Suggs (32) , Bogdan (30,4) passes a game at average.
Suggs 2,7 assists, vs Bogdan 3,1
Secundary passes 0,4 vs 0,4
Potential assists 4,8 vs 5,6
points created by assists 7,1 vs 7,9

So basically Bogdan passes less but his passes lead to better looks for opponents than Suggs. And nobody considers Bogdan playmaker, matter of fact he plays behind -two playmakers.

Now you telling me you can trust Suggs at PG? Based on what? His college team was notorious for not running pick&roll because Suggs couldn't execute it.

Suggs pick&roll percentile through years:
2023-24 - 36th
2022-23 -54th
2021-22- 13th

For crying out loud, guy averages 2,7 apg. Literally there are several centers with better court vision & better passing chops than him.

He has his strengths , but playmaking or any sort of advanced thinking isn't one of them for him. He tends to make bad basketball decisions more often than not, that's why spot up shooting is great "spot" for him. Can't overthink open shot.

He was sg his first two years. You can check the link. Lol

[Knightro]

You were 100% right about them benching AB out of the gate last season. You really ready to take that bet two years in a row? Haha

I guess your position is more nuanced since you are saying Harris beats out AB/Jett/TDS, and then it comes down to AB vs TDS.

Personally I think AB is the backup PG and the real subplots are Cole vs Jett for that microwave scoring role and Harris vs TDS for that combo forward role.

I don't believe Harris is going to "beat out" anybody because I don't think things work like that. Guys don't really win NBA rotation spots in practice. This isn't like the NFL.

I would bet Mosley already knows what he wants his "everyone is healthy" rotation to be right now and he's probably known it since... mid July? Black and Jett could make 75% of their three pointers in practice and in intrasquad scrimmages and it won't change who Mosley wants to play when the real bullets start flying.

Now of course there will be injuries and slumps and unexpected good play from various guys which will adjust things throughout the year. Harris is going to miss 20-30 games almost assuredly because he always does. And when he misses time, that will be a golden opportunity for other guys to step in and play better than Gary was playing and perhaps not give him the spot back.

But back to Black...

The Magic weren't comfortable enough with Black on the basketball to ask him to do literally any traditional point guard duties last year even though Fultz missed a ton of games and Cole had an awful season.

He was used purely as a 3&D guy any time he played non-garbage time basketball.

To assume that he's going to just take on this tremendously larger ball handling and facilitating role with Ingles gone when he's had virtually no reps at it on a team that (you will likely disagree with this part) simply can't afford to sacrifice wins in exchange for what will likely be ugly developmental reps seems incredibly optimistic at best, and completely naive at worst.

My guess is that Black will continue to be used more as a 3&D guy and less as an on-ball point guard.