Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LII "Lottery/Draft" Edition)

[Bensational]

What we need is a shot blocker. Jameer is sufficient for another year, and he'll, we can acquire a pick at the end of the lottery for afflalo or baby and take pg... Our number one priority this offseason should be a shot blocker. I don't understand how you all do not see that. Every game everyone is driving on us and getting easy layups. Nik and drew don't play d, so Nicholson is best suited off the bench, as instant offense.

What I'm getting at is we need Noel with our first pick. He doesn't need to score for us. He needs to anchor our defense. There are no stars in this draft, so don't label him as a bust. He will be a great defensive player, who will probably never average more than 12 ppg... But if he can give me 10 rpg, 3 bpg, and 2 spg I will take it all day. You all really don't understand how much defense impacts a game, especially interior defense. Also I have seen some on here that we can sign a defensive big for cheap... Please stop... Chandler is expensive, so is ibaka... Davis is untouchable, camby is old.... Sanders is about to be expensive... Noah is expensive.... Dwight, ummm you know about that.... Stop acting like they are a dime a dozen. Pg's on the other hand are a dime a dozen, and we can buy a pick and get Burke or McCollum... Or evenentually sign one in free agency

i don't think this draft is about drafting for a need. our need is a superstar that we can build around, and that's not in this draft, so we then need to focus on the next priority - picking the asset with the most value. Noel's got value as a draft pick, but as a player he'll lose value if he doesn't make an instant impact. what's the going rate for big men? well, sometimes it actually is a dime a dozen.

Chandler, ZBo, Camby, Jefferson were all traded for expirings or TPEs. Thomas Robinson was just given up for an expiring. Derrick Favors needed another top 4 pick and Devin Harris to land D.Will. Thabeet, a #2 7ft shot blocking big man who was only 2 years into his career needed another first rounder thrown in just to land Battier.

The point is - you can find a deal for a big man, but you can't always make up for drafting a dud.

Also, I just wanted to point out that in the last 20+ years, only 4 DPOTY's have won a championship (2 being in the year that they were DPOTYs). Chandler, Garnett, Wallace and Olajuwan. 2 of those guys are also MVP players, because they play offense too. There have been plenty of teams that have managed to succeed with good, not great, defenders.

That said, I'm not against drafting Noel. I'm not necessarily for it, either. I just want Hennigan to pick the best talent available, so that come 2014 we can offer a package of Vucevic + 2013 stud + 2014 pick for the next surething superstar in the draft. I DON'T want him drafting a player because they fit our current 'needs'. We need a lot, but most of all we need a star.

[Neon1]

A guy that can create his own shot has McCollum written all over it. The guy is the complete package offensively

Tell em one more time.

[thelead]

A guy that can create his own shot has McCollum written all over it. The guy is the complete package offensively

Tell em one more time.

He's the one I would try to find a late lotto pick for. Hopefully for Afflalo or BBD

[dsg2021]

I'd rather give a bet on MCW if we somehow took a middle/late pick with him still there. Burke too. Ben, you killed it on your last post, completely agree with your line of thinking.

[NEM]

Youd rather have MCW than McCollum?

im just curious as to why?

oh and ben, i dont agree with your line of thinking... AT ALL

[NEM]

What we need is a shot blocker. Jameer is sufficient for another year, and he'll, we can acquire a pick at the end of the lottery for afflalo or baby and take pg... Our number one priority this offseason should be a shot blocker. I don't understand how you all do not see that. Every game everyone is driving on us and getting easy layups. Nik and drew don't play d, so Nicholson is best suited off the bench, as instant offense.

What I'm getting at is we need Noel with our first pick. He doesn't need to score for us. He needs to anchor our defense. There are no stars in this draft, so don't label him as a bust. He will be a great defensive player, who will probably never average more than 12 ppg... But if he can give me 10 rpg, 3 bpg, and 2 spg I will take it all day. You all really don't understand how much defense impacts a game, especially interior defense. Also I have seen some on here that we can sign a defensive big for cheap... Please stop... Chandler is expensive, so is ibaka... Davis is untouchable, camby is old.... Sanders is about to be expensive... Noah is expensive.... Dwight, ummm you know about that.... Stop acting like they are a dime a dozen. Pg's on the other hand are a dime a dozen, and we can buy a pick and get Burke or McCollum... Or evenentually sign one in free agency

i don't think this draft is about drafting for a need. our need is a superstar that we can build around, and that's not in this draft, so we then need to focus on the next priority - picking the asset with the most value. Noel's got value as a draft pick, but as a player he'll lose value if he doesn't make an instant impact. what's the going rate for big men? well, sometimes it actually is a dime a dozen.

Chandler, ZBo, Camby, Jefferson were all traded for expirings or TPEs. Thomas Robinson was just given up for an expiring. Derrick Favors needed another top 4 pick and Devin Harris to land D.Will. Thabeet, a #2 7ft shot blocking big man who was only 2 years into his career needed another first rounder thrown in just to land Battier.

The point is - you can find a deal for a big man, but you can't always make up for drafting a dud.

Also, I just wanted to point out that in the last 20+ years, only 4 DPOTY's have won a championship (2 being in the year that they were DPOTYs). Chandler, Garnett, Wallace and Olajuwan. 2 of those guys are also MVP players, because they play offense too. There have been plenty of teams that have managed to succeed with good, not great, defenders.

That said, I'm not against drafting Noel. I'm not necessarily for it, either. I just want Hennigan to pick the best talent available, so that come 2014 we can offer a package of Vucevic + 2013 stud + 2014 pick for the next surething superstar in the draft. I DON'T want him drafting a player because they fit our current 'needs'. We need a lot, but most of all we need a star.

Our priority is interior defense.... thats what you get with noel, along with value. he is 18 years old. he wont lose value because he averages 6 and 5 with a block and a half his first year while playing 20 minutes. we are in player development mode. you draft one that fits your need.

[dsg2021]

In a roundabout way NEM, I agree with Ben's last post but the best value pick may most probably end up being Noel too. I'd really welcome that pick too. We def need that superstar first, our Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis, we don't have one yet even though the FO is doing amazing so far.

For incase we get a mid pick, I like MCW as a project. Safe to develop and grow more behind Meer and Moore/Beno with a lot of potential as a big true PG, maybe he could come on slowly but surely like Jeff Teague did. Burke is the opposite spectrum but could be too perfect a fit IMO as a Meer lite pretty quickly.

[Neon1]

In a roundabout way NEM, I agree with Ben's last post but the best value pick may most probably end up being Noel too. I'd really welcome that pick too. We def need that superstar first, our Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis, we don't have one yet even though the FO is doing amazing so far.

I dissagree with Ben's line of thinking also. I understand what point he is trying to make, i just think he is going about it completely the wrong way.

Whether you eventually snag a surefire superstar or not, this team is and still will need the interior defense. Nobody is saying take a guy like Noel OVER a superstar player, You said yourself you dont see one in this draft, So what are we supposed to do? Just keep passing on these chances to keep building with good pieces in building towards the ultimate goal? Hennigans goal is to build a team capable of contending over a long substainable period. There is no lock you can grab Wiggins or Parker, it is a lotto system. You HAVE TO keep building on what you have.

It is easy to say hey, lets just package Noel and Vucci for Wiggins or whatever superstar, but in reality, If said team thinks/knows that player is the next franchise guy, they arent trading him for anything outside of LeBron, KD type talents etc.

The key to building a dynasty is having a young team almost ready to go with all the pieces then adding that guy.

When you get lucky and hit on grabbing a Franchise type guy, but the rest of the team is trash, it takes to long to get all the parts needed to get there. Next thing you know your Star players contract is up and they are heading out of town because "They just want to win".

[Catledge]

In a roundabout way NEM, I agree with Ben's last post but the best value pick may most probably end up being Noel too. I'd really welcome that pick too. We def need that superstar first, our Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis, we don't have one yet even though the FO is doing amazing so far.

I dissagree with Ben's line of thinking also. I understand what point he is trying to make, i just think he is going about it completely the wrong way.

Whether you eventually snag a surefire superstar or not, this team is and still will need the interior defense. Nobody is saying take a guy like Noel OVER a superstar player, You said yourself you dont see one in this draft, So what are we supposed to do? Just keep passing on these chances to keep building with good pieces in building towards the ultimate goal? Hennigans goal is to build a team capable of contending over a long substainable period. There is no lock you can grab Wiggins or Parker, it is a lotto system. You HAVE TO keep building on what you have.

It is easy to say hey, lets just package Noel and Vucci for Wiggins or whatever superstar, but in reality, If said team thinks/knows that player is the next franchise guy, they arent trading him for anything outside of LeBron, KD type talents etc.

The key to building a dynasty is having a young team almost ready to go with all the pieces then adding that guy.

When you get lucky and hit on grabbing a Franchise type guy, but the rest of the team is trash, it takes to long to get all the parts needed to get there. Next thing you know your Star players contract is up and they are heading out of town because "They just want to win".

Count me among those who are in this school of thought. I say get the best talent available with every pick we get and then use your cap space and the appeal of a solid supporting cast to try to grab an established star.

[Bensational]

Like I said, draft for the best asset, don't draft to fill a need. you can't fill needs until you know what you need. you don't extend Ibaka and release Harden if you don't have Durant. You build on something you have if you have something to build on. We don't. Anyone who's convinced that we've got a foundation piece for a championship team is basing that purely on speculation and hype. We've got some great prospects, but until one of those presents themselves as a concrete star, we don't have a foundation piece.

I have no problem with drafting Noel. I don't have an opinion on who's the best prospect to draft because there aren't any stand outs, and I'm not privy to the scouting reports that Hennigan is. (nor do I have his basketball acumen). But drafting Noel as a "need" is asinine when you don't have a foundation to build around. If McLemore/Smart/anyone has a great tournament run where they put the team on their back, they take over an offense and create all their own shots and identify themselves as the best prospect in the draft, I hope we target them, rather than targeting a "need" (although, that's exactly what we need). Because who's to say we'll need Noel down the line? If we trade Vuc and manage to find a C who can anchor a defense and who is more affordable (or more efficiently paid, because they can compete on offense, too), then Noel becomes defunct. He no longer serves a need. And if he wasn't the best asset we could have taken at the time, then we've just shot ourselves in the foot and lost value.

Once again, I'm not drawing any conclusion here on whether or not to draft Noel. I'm happy to wait for Hennigan's surprise. I'm just pointing out some of the finer points which are neglected, and glossed over with cliches.

[Bensational]

Our priority is interior defense.... thats what you get with noel, along with value. he is 18 years old. he wont lose value because he averages 6 and 5 with a block and a half his first year while playing 20 minutes. we are in player development mode. you draft one that fits your need.

Our priority is interior defense only if you want this current team to compete as is. Otherwise, our priority is getting a star. The best way to position yourself to get a star is to have the best assets to trade for one. If Noel isn't the best asset (not saying he is/isn't), then he certainly isn't a priority.

We can solidify our interior defense without having to use our best asset to do so. However, if Noel is the best asset we can get, then it's a matter of great convenience, and we're killing two birds with one stone.

Let's not forget that Baby does a pretty solid job of giving us a competitive low post defense, and he only costs $6M. there are other affordable options out there, and just because they aren't DPOTY candidates, doesn't mean they can't be a better option (when factoring in cost, efficiency, and other variables). Then there's also the list of examples I gave of good-great defenders being acquired for next to nothing (such as our TPE), which should serve as enough food for thought to alleviate any pressure to draft for a need.

[eyriq]

My thinking is that we don't have a team to build at this point, because we lack a player to build around (same point Ben is making). So drafting Noel due to his interior defense (a need) isn't logic that I agree with. Drafting him because he projects to have the highest ceiling is something different. IMO he doesn't, Smart does.

The championship team we are building towards will likely only have a MAX two of our current and soon to acquire rookie scale contracts starting on it. Basing anything on fit at this point is counterproductive.

[Neon1]

Our priority is interior defense.... thats what you get with noel, along with value. he is 18 years old. he wont lose value because he averages 6 and 5 with a block and a half his first year while playing 20 minutes. we are in player development mode. you draft one that fits your need.

Our priority is interior defense only if you want this current team to compete as is. Otherwise, our priority is getting a star. The best way to position yourself to get a star is to have the best assets to trade for one. If Noel isn't the best asset (not saying he is/isn't), then he certainly isn't a priority.

We can solidify our interior defense without having to use our best asset to do so. However, if Noel is the best asset we can get, then it's a matter of great convenience, and we're killing two birds with one stone.

Let's not forget that Baby does a pretty solid job of giving us a competitive low post defense, and he only costs $6M. there are other affordable options out there, and just because they aren't DPOTY candidates, doesn't mean they can't be a better option (when factoring in cost, efficiency, and other variables). Then there's also the list of examples I gave of good-great defenders being acquired for next to nothing (such as our TPE), which should serve as enough food for thought to alleviate any pressure to draft for a need.

You guys keep talking about Noel as if were talking about reaching for some unknown entity. Taking him is not a reach. He is PROJECTED there. The guy IS expected to be anywhere from the 1st pick to the 3rd pick eve with his injury. Exactly the same as Smart and McLemore, So does that not signify that the thought is that he DOES have the same amount of upside and talent?

There is no surefire standout #1 guy in this draft. Could he bust? Hell yes he can. But Marcus Smart has just as much bust potential from the PG standpoint.

1. Does ANYBODY even know if he can run a college offense let alone a NBA offense? He doesnt do it now.
2. Does anybody know if his disruptive flopping tactics will even fly in the NBA? I mean his defense IS very gimmicky.
3. His body. He is already 220+ as a 18 year old, not very quick as is, and has the look of a guy that can easily become overweight and thus end up too slow to guard PG's on the next level. He may very well size himself out of guarding position before his rookie deal even runs out.
4. Efficiency? His shooting and Turnover rate how much will they improve? If at all?

We will need Smart to improve greatly on ALL these issues right now, for him to be considered a good pick.


Noel, wew need to be versatile enough to either play beside Vucci and solidify our helpside defense, change and disrupt our opponents at the rim, Clean up missed shots and finish strong, Gather defensive rebounds. His potential would be in us projecting/gambling him to have that Camby/BigBen/Dwight type impact on the defensive end and siglehandedly improve our team on that end.


To me it very well is likely more a lock for Noel to become that then for Smart to develop/improve skills he currently lacks. Noel's strengths already lie in the areas we need them to be. What you guys are saying to do is to not draft what we already KNOW we need, in favor of something that does not even currently even exist.

You guys are esentially saying is the same as a broke man returning a winning lotto ticket for $1,000,000 because he is still hoping he can win the $3,000,000 lottery next year. You build on what you HAVE in hand, not on what you pray you have at sometime in the future. Especially when that future is not garanteed.

[Bensational]

You guys keep talking about Noel as if were talking about reaching for some unknown entity. Taking him is not a reach. He is PROJECTED there. The guy IS expected to be anywhere from the 1st pick to the 3rd pick eve with his injury. Exactly the same as Smart and McLemore, So does that not signify that the thought is that he DOES have the same amount of upside and talent?

There is no surefire standout #1 guy in this draft. Could he bust? Hell yes he can. But Marcus Smart has just as much bust potential from the PG standpoint.

1. Does ANYBODY even know if he can run a college offense let alone a NBA offense? He doesnt do it now.
2. Does anybody know if his disruptive flopping tactics will even fly in the NBA? I mean his defense IS very gimmicky.
3. His body. He is already 220+ as a 18 year old, not very quick as is, and has the look of a guy that can easily become overweight and thus end up too slow to guard PG's on the next level. He may very well size himself out of guarding position before his rookie deal even runs out.
4. Efficiency? His shooting and Turnover rate how much will they improve? If at all?

We will need Smart to improve greatly on ALL these issues right now, for him to be considered a good pick.


Noel, wew need to be versatile enough to either play beside Vucci and solidify our helpside defense, change and disrupt our opponents at the rim, Clean up missed shots and finish strong, Gather defensive rebounds. His potential would be in us projecting/gambling him to have that Camby/BigBen/Dwight type impact on the defensive end and siglehandedly improve our team on that end.


To me it very well is likely more a lock for Noel to become that then for Smart to develop/improve skills he currently lacks. Noel's strengths already lie in the areas we need them to be. What you guys are saying to do is to not draft what we already KNOW we need, in favor of something that does not even currently even exist.

You guys are esentially saying is the same as a broke man returning a winning lotto ticket for $1,000,000 because he is still hoping he can win the $3,000,000 lottery next year. You build on what you HAVE in hand, not on what you pray you have at sometime in the future. Especially when that future is not garanteed.

i haven't said that we shouldn't draft Noel, or that we should draft Smart. i'm just saying, we should draft the BPA, regardless of fit, to give ourselves the best collection of assets. if Noel is that guy, cool. if someone else steps up as that guy with a strong tourney showing, or some other data that Hennigan has amassed, then i'll take that too. but trying to sell him as a pick because he fills a need is ancillary at this point. arguing that we shouldn't take someone else because of fit is just as pointless.

for the record, i actually wonder how averse Hennigan is to taking a chance on injured players, and whether or not that would seriously cost Noel points in his eyes.

[arsenal6106]

I have to say. I can't wait for lottery and draft night with you guys.

[MagicMan89]

We have an owner that has been through years of stars getting injured. It has to be a factor when Henny makes the pick.

Penny missed
23 games in 96-97
63 games in 97-98

TMac missed
5 games in 00-01
6 games in 01-02
7 games in 02-03
15 games in 03-04

G. Hill missed
78 games in 00-01
68 games in 01-02
53 games in 02-03
15 games in 04-05
61 games in 05-06
17 games in 06-07

Dwight missed
28 games in 11-12

[bigdogdylan5]

The best thing is Henny might reach and draft someone outside of Noel or Smart and people are gonna bitch for 5 straight months about it just like when we selected Nicholson

[MagicMan89]

The best thing is Henny might reach and draft someone outside of Noel or Smart and people are gonna bitch for 5 straight months about it just like when we selected Nicholson

I trust Henny and his team to make a solid pick. Top 4 you wont see a reach. We know the people in play at our pick.

[BaunceyChillups]

Our priority is interior defense.... thats what you get with noel, along with value. he is 18 years old. he wont lose value because he averages 6 and 5 with a block and a half his first year while playing 20 minutes. we are in player development mode. you draft one that fits your need.

Our priority is interior defense only if you want this current team to compete as is. Otherwise, our priority is getting a star. The best way to position yourself to get a star is to have the best assets to trade for one. If Noel isn't the best asset (not saying he is/isn't), then he certainly isn't a priority.

We can solidify our interior defense without having to use our best asset to do so. However, if Noel is the best asset we can get, then it's a matter of great convenience, and we're killing two birds with one stone.

Let's not forget that Baby does a pretty solid job of giving us a competitive low post defense, and he only costs $6M. there are other affordable options out there, and just because they aren't DPOTY candidates, doesn't mean they can't be a better option (when factoring in cost, efficiency, and other variables). Then there's also the list of examples I gave of good-great defenders being acquired for next to nothing (such as our TPE), which should serve as enough food for thought to alleviate any pressure to draft for a need.

You guys keep talking about Noel as if were talking about reaching for some unknown entity. Taking him is not a reach. He is PROJECTED there. The guy IS expected to be anywhere from the 1st pick to the 3rd pick eve with his injury. Exactly the same as Smart and McLemore, So does that not signify that the thought is that he DOES have the same amount of upside and talent?

There is no surefire standout #1 guy in this draft. Could he bust? Hell yes he can. But Marcus Smart has just as much bust potential from the PG standpoint.

1. Does ANYBODY even know if he can run a college offense let alone a NBA offense? He doesnt do it now.
2. Does anybody know if his disruptive flopping tactics will even fly in the NBA? I mean his defense IS very gimmicky.
3. His body. He is already 220+ as a 18 year old, not very quick as is, and has the look of a guy that can easily become overweight and thus end up too slow to guard PG's on the next level. He may very well size himself out of guarding position before his rookie deal even runs out.
4. Efficiency? His shooting and Turnover rate how much will they improve? If at all?

We will need Smart to improve greatly on ALL these issues right now, for him to be considered a good pick.


Noel, wew need to be versatile enough to either play beside Vucci and solidify our helpside defense, change and disrupt our opponents at the rim, Clean up missed shots and finish strong, Gather defensive rebounds. His potential would be in us projecting/gambling him to have that Camby/BigBen/Dwight type impact on the defensive end and siglehandedly improve our team on that end.


To me it very well is likely more a lock for Noel to become that then for Smart to develop/improve skills he currently lacks. Noel's strengths already lie in the areas we need them to be. What you guys are saying to do is to not draft what we already KNOW we need, in favor of something that does not even currently even exist.

You guys are esentially saying is the same as a broke man returning a winning lotto ticket for $1,000,000 because he is still hoping he can win the $3,000,000 lottery next year. You build on what you HAVE in hand, not on what you pray you have at sometime in the future. Especially when that future is not garanteed.

Smart being a flopper at times doesn't mean his defense is gimmicky, his absurdly high steal rate and formidable DRTG don't lie.

The Magic backcourt has been small and decrepit for years now, it's natural to want to improve that first when we already have some young pieces in the front. Moreover, while I like Noel, I'm not that excited about him because his offensive upside isn't there. If we want to improve our defense and shot-blocking up front, why spend a top pick on it when there are guys like Jeff Withey available later? It's basically a case of if you'd rather want Tyson Chandler or Omer Asik. Chandler's better of course but you can get Asik for less.

[Neon1]

Smart being a flopper at times doesn't mean his defense is gimmicky, his absurdly high steal rate and formidable DRTG don't lie.

The Magic backcourt has been small and decrepit for years now, it's natural to want to improve that first when we already have some young pieces in the front. Moreover, while I like Noel, I'm not that excited about him because his offensive upside isn't there.

If we want to improve our defense and shot-blocking up front, why spend a top pick on it when there are guys like Jeff Withey available later?

Whithey cannot guard PF's and neither can Vucci. The reason i single out Noel is because he is the only one there with the unique combination on Center length + Forward defensive range, quickness and agility.

To me Noel allows you to have a complete and frontcourt.

Base lineup (solid all around)
SF Harris
PF Noel
C Vucevic

Offensive lineup (while still covering the rim)
SF Harris
PF Nicholson
C Noel

Fast and athletic ()
SF Harkless
PF Harris
C Noel

Besides the on court, Noel also covers you long term in the event you lose Vucci, dont want to match him, or or have to include him in a mega deal.