2024-2025 NBA Playoffs Round 1, Game 1: (7) Orlando Magic at (2) Boston Celtics - 3:30pm ET

[eyriq]

Front Court Touches in Game 1
Franz 44 touches
Paolo 42 touches
Black 19 touches (14 min)
KCP 19 touches (35 min)
Cole 14 touches (10 min)
CoJo 13 touches (26 min)
Gary 5 touches (14 min)

Front Court Touches Per Game Post All-Star Break
Paolo 38 (+4)
Franz 38 (+6)
Black 21 (-2)
KCP 18 (+1)
CoJo 17 (-4)
Cole 17 (-3)
Harris 8 (-3)

Obviously some (a lot?) of credit on that has to go to the Celtics and how they chose to game plan the Magic defensively, but the ball was generally moving less than it did late in the year.

Hmmm that doesn't scream ball movement issues to me. My hunch is that FGA per touch dropped due to playoff jitters.

[VFX]

Front Court Touches in Game 1
Franz 44 touches
Paolo 42 touches
Black 19 touches (14 min)
KCP 19 touches (35 min)
Cole 14 touches (10 min)
CoJo 13 touches (26 min)
Gary 5 touches (14 min)

Front Court Touches Per Game Post All-Star Break
Paolo 38 (+4)
Franz 38 (+6)
Black 21 (-2)
KCP 18 (+1)
CoJo 17 (-4)
Cole 17 (-3)
Harris 8 (-3)

Obviously some (a lot?) of credit on that has to go to the Celtics and how they chose to game plan the Magic defensively, but the ball was generally moving less than it did late in the year.

It’s entirely the system combined with the talent.

This isn’t specifically a Celtics defense issue. It’s a “two guys iso the entire game to score whatsoever” issue.

As Zach Lowe pointed out…. The entire structure of the offense needs an overhaul. It isn’t working and hasn’t worked for the last 3 seasons.

They aren’t going to solve it in this series or any series.

[Cammo101]

I was critical of the KCP signing in the offseason, but man, what a dud even by what I was expecting. Bringing him in has been like trying to put a Hello Kitty band-aide on a shotgun blast.

[three3d]

I was critical of the KCP signing in the offseason, but man, what a dud even by what I was expecting. Bringing him in has been like trying to put a Hello Kitty band-aide on a shotgun blast.

He’s giving the starting unit basically what you’d want your bench production to be from him. Kick Garry Harris to the curb and I’m fine with KCP taking his bench spot. Problem is he’s paid way too much for that.

[VFX]

I was critical of the KCP signing in the offseason, but man, what a dud even by what I was expecting. Bringing him in has been like trying to put a Hello Kitty band-aide on a shotgun blast.

Because Weltman is an idiot and he, like a lot of posters on this forum, believed merely throwing money at players that can shoot somehow changes how the offense would be run. Surprise! It doesn't.

You will still have people here argue that the solution to Orlando's problem is acquiring more shooters instead of prioritizing ball movement and maximizing Paolo/Franz within an actual system that isnt dependent on them driving to the basket 99% of the time.

[Knightro]

Hmmm that doesn't scream ball movement issues to me. My hunch is that FGA per touch dropped due to playoff jitters.

Playoff Game 1: 27 potential assists, 0 secondary assists

Post All-Star Break: 41.6 potential assists per game, 3.3 secondary assists per game

Potential assists are passes that led directly to a shot attempt.

Secondary assists are passes to a player who records an assist within 1 second and without dribbling.

[VFX]

Hmmm that doesn't scream ball movement issues to me. My hunch is that FGA per touch dropped due to playoff jitters.

Playoff Game 1: 27 potential assists

Post All-Star Break: 41.6 potential assists per game

Potential assists are passes that led directly to a shot attempt.

Cmon Knightro.

Didn't you know all of Orlando's problems are due to unquantifiable things like "playoff jitters" and indiscernible "injury recovery timelines" that cant be measured ?

It couldn't possibly be the most obvious explanation.

[eyriq]

Hmmm that doesn't scream ball movement issues to me. My hunch is that FGA per touch dropped due to playoff jitters.

Playoff Game 1: 27 potential assists, 0 secondary assists

Post All-Star Break: 41.6 potential assists per game, 3.3 secondary assists per game

Potential assists are passes that led directly to a shot attempt.

Secondary assists are passes to a player who records an assist within 1 second and without dribbling.

This could also be explained by the relationship between fga and touches. If they are hesitant to shoot you’d see fewer fga per touch

[Knightro]

This could also be explained by the relationship between fga and touches. If they are hesitant to shoot you’d see fewer fga per touch

It couldn't possibly be that there was just not a lot of ball movement.

It's not like the Magic ranked near the bottom or at the bottom of the league in every single ball movement related category all year and are now playing a top 5 defense which can exacerbate those weaknesses even further...

[eyriq]

This could also be explained by the relationship between fga and touches. If they are hesitant to shoot you’d see fewer fga per touch

It couldn't possibly be that there was just not a lot of ball movement.

It's not like the Magic ranked near the bottom or at the bottom of the league in every single ball movement related category all year and are now playing a top 5 defense which can exacerbate those weaknesses even further...

I haven't checked field goal attempts per touch, so it's just a hypothesis that this is lower than would be expected. If it is lower, then I would think it's due to jitters, and if it's lower, it explains lower field goal attempts as well. As to why the mix in touches would change as a result, well the ball needs to find those willing to attempt field goals.

Edit: if it's not lower, then throw that hypothesis out.

Double edit: regarding reduced potential assists, Paolo and Franz are the primary playmakers and are also assisted on a lower percentage of shots, so if touches drop because players are reluctant to shoot, ball movement drops, the shot mix shifts to Paolo and Franz who self create more frequently, and hence potential assists drop.

[J the Drafter]

This could also be explained by the relationship between fga and touches. If they are hesitant to shoot you’d see fewer fga per touch

It couldn't possibly be that there was just not a lot of ball movement.

It's not like the Magic ranked near the bottom or at the bottom of the league in every single ball movement related category all year and are now playing a top 5 defense which can exacerbate those weaknesses even further...

I haven't checked field goal attempts per touch, so it's just a hypothesis that this is lower than would be expected. If it is lower, then I would think it's due to jitters, and if it's lower, it explains lower field goal attempts as well. As to why the mix in touches would change as a result, well the ball needs to find those willing to attempt field goals.

Edit: if it's not lower, then throw that hypothesis out.

Double edit: regarding reduced potential assists, Paolo and Franz are the primary playmakers and are also assisted on a lower percentage of shots, so if touches drop because players are reluctant to shoot, ball movement drops, the shot mix shifts to Paolo and Franz who self create more frequently, and hence potential assists drop.

Mosley talked about pace. If the Celtics’ ball pressure is preventing Orlando from getting into their offense early in the shot clock, the Magic will have less time to work for a good shot. The Magic will practice counteracting the ball pressure and hopefully find a good response.

[Knightro]

I will say that game 1 was played at an incredibly slow pace, which in theory should favor the Magic, but it didn't really play out that way on Sunday.

[basketballRob]

I will say that game 1 was played at an incredibly slow pace, which in theory should favor the Magic, but it didn't really play out that way on Sunday.

The game we beat them earlier in the season, the Celtics just missed a lot of shots. I remember Brown blowing some layups. Tatum was out for that game.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[MartinsIzAfraud]

I will say that game 1 was played at an incredibly slow pace, which in theory should favor the Magic, but it didn't really play out that way on Sunday.

Celtics don't have any issues getting into offensive sets and getting good looks of PnR, dribble handoffs etc etc. Watch how quickly Celtics get going offensively and where the shot clock is & then watch our side. We probably don't even start getting into a set until 14 seconds left

[eyriq]

Front Court FGA Per Touch Game 1
Franz .55 FGA per touch
Paolo .64 FGA per touch
WCJ .25 FGA per touch
AB .21 FGA per touch
KCP .26 FGA per touch
Cole .21 FGA per touch
CoJo .08 FGA per touch
JI .36 FGA per touch
Caleb .56 FGA per touch
Harris .40 FGA per touch

Front Court FGA Per Shot Per Game Post All-Star Break
Franz .50 FGA per touch
Paolo .55 FGA per touch
WCJ .35 FGA per touch
AB .40 FGA per touch
KCP .33 FGA per touch
Cole .50 FGA per touch
CoJo .29 FGA per touch
JI .33 FGA per touch
Caleb .36 FGA per touch
Harris .25 FGA per touch

This confirms my hypothesis. It's not a ball movement issue, it's a drop off in aggressiveness, likely due to jitters.

CoJo shot frequency down 74%, Cole down 57%, AB down 47%, WCJ down 28%, KCP down 21%.

Why didn't touches result in FGA?

[Cammo101]

I was critical of the KCP signing in the offseason, but man, what a dud even by what I was expecting. Bringing him in has been like trying to put a Hello Kitty band-aide on a shotgun blast.

He’s giving the starting unit basically what you’d want your bench production to be from him. Kick Garry Harris to the curb and I’m fine with KCP taking his bench spot. Problem is he’s paid way too much for that.

Yeah, he isn't a bad player. He is now just a radically overpaid role player and the kind of contract that blocks going out and finding a real, meaningful piece that could actually move this franchise forward.

[Knightro]

Front Court FGA Per Touch Game 1
Franz .55 FGA per touch
Paolo .64 FGA per touch
WCJ .25 FGA per touch
AB .21 FGA per touch
KCP .26 FGA per touch
Cole .21 FGA per touch
CoJo .08 FGA per touch
JI .36 FGA per touch
Caleb .56 FGA per touch
Harris .40 FGA per touch

Front Court FGA Per Shot Per Game Post All-Star Break
Franz .50 FGA per touch
Paolo .55 FGA per touch
WCJ .35 FGA per touch
AB .40 FGA per touch
KCP .33 FGA per touch
Cole .50 FGA per touch
CoJo .29 FGA per touch
JI .33 FGA per touch
Caleb .36 FGA per touch
Harris .25 FGA per touch

This confirms my hypothesis. It's not a ball movement issue, it's a drop off in aggressiveness, likely due to jitters.

CoJo shot frequency down 74%, Cole down 57%, AB down 47%, WCJ down 28%, KCP down 21%.

Why didn't touches result in FGA?

Look, I don't want to get into a thing with you on this because you're so argumentative about stuff you think you understand more than you actually do, but these things go hand-in-hand.

The ball literally moved less. This is an undeniable fact. Front court touches were down across the board, this has nothing to do with shot attempts. The non Paolo/Franz players literally touched the ball in the halfcourt less often than they usually do.

[Skybox]

Mosley talked about pace. If the Celtics’ ball pressure is preventing Orlando from getting into their offense early in the shot clock, the Magic will have less time to work for a good shot. The Magic will practice counteracting the ball pressure and hopefully find a good response
.

good point

This season, ORL has noticeably gotten their offensive possessions started late in the clock ALL the damn time...BOS probably smart and skilled enough to compound that pre-existing condition. Smart vets, good coach...just not going to miss an opportunity to exploit a glaring flaw.

[AdamTheGreek]

We need to play faster. Let CoJo handle it more than in Game 1. Let AB handle the ball. Keep Cole away.
Part of why we played better the past month was CoJo helped us ramp up our pace. Imagine if we had a solid point guard.

[eyriq]

Front Court FGA Per Touch Game 1
Franz .55 FGA per touch
Paolo .64 FGA per touch
WCJ .25 FGA per touch
AB .21 FGA per touch
KCP .26 FGA per touch
Cole .21 FGA per touch
CoJo .08 FGA per touch
JI .36 FGA per touch
Caleb .56 FGA per touch
Harris .40 FGA per touch

Front Court FGA Per Shot Per Game Post All-Star Break
Franz .50 FGA per touch
Paolo .55 FGA per touch
WCJ .35 FGA per touch
AB .40 FGA per touch
KCP .33 FGA per touch
Cole .50 FGA per touch
CoJo .29 FGA per touch
JI .33 FGA per touch
Caleb .36 FGA per touch
Harris .25 FGA per touch

This confirms my hypothesis. It's not a ball movement issue, it's a drop off in aggressiveness, likely due to jitters.

CoJo shot frequency down 74%, Cole down 57%, AB down 47%, WCJ down 28%, KCP down 21%.

Why didn't touches result in FGA?

Look, I don't want to get into a thing with you on this because you're so argumentative about stuff you think you understand more than you actually do, but these things go hand-in-hand.

The ball literally moved less. This is an undeniable fact. Front court touches were down across the board, this has nothing to do with shot attempts. The non Paolo/Franz players literally touched the ball in the halfcourt less often than they usually do.

Think critically about this. You've got the relationship backwards.

Touches represent how often a player receives or handles the ball during the game. Field Goal Attempts measure how frequently a player actually takes a shot after receiving the ball.

The ratio of FGA per touch indicates a player's aggressiveness or propensity to shoot when they have possession. A high FGA per touch means the player frequently looks to score when touching the ball, while a low ratio suggests they are often passing, facilitating, or resetting the offense.

Some reasons why FGA frequency would drop are that tighter defense makes it harder to find clean looks, so players pass out of touches more often. Roles become more defined in the playoffs, with star players taking on more shot creation and others deferring. Opponents build specific game plans to take away known scoring actions, forcing adjustments. Ball movement increases as teams work harder for quality shots, which naturally lowers the chance of shooting on any single touch. There’s also a stronger emphasis on shot quality—teams are less willing to settle. And finally, the stakes are higher, so some players may become more conservative or hesitant with the ball.

We know our ball movement didn't increase, which would be required to explain the frequency of field goal attempt drop. So actually you're arguing for the opposite direction of the relationship.