Around the NBA- 2020/2021 Edition

[Skybox]

As for Suggs as best player, Lillard is apsolute best case and he can' t lead team pass second round.

Wow...I really hope he sucks like Lillard does

[jonbob17]

Especially because some future Suggs- whoever- Porter- Isaac-whoever lineup still has clear "second round exit" ceiling due lack of star power. That roster is ugly similar to Pacers current roster. Where they have bunch of solid players but not megastar to tie together everything.

Wow...we are six months into our rebuild and you already have our players' and team's peak, years down the road, figured out. Someone get Alex Martins on the phone. Tell him to blow up the blow up, and hire this man.

Without superstar wing you can't compete. Everybody knows that i assume
Keep your sarcasm at home.
Porter, Isaac are not transending wing talents, those teams simply would never be match to Giannis, Tatum, Durant likes of the world. Harsh reality.

As for Suggs as best player, Lillard is apsolute best case and he can' t lead team pass second round.

Happy to see you came around on Mikal Bridges.

And as for Porter, you don't have to squint too hard to see a 25 ppg scorer. Scoring is not everything but it's something. Porter, Durant, and KP, are probably the three guys in the league that are always open, in that they can shoot over everybody.

[pepe1991]

Wow...I really hope he sucks like Lillard does

Pump a breaks.

Lillard is probably third best PG in nba and top 10 PG in nba history imo. That's how highly i think of him.
HOWEVER, Lillard played ONE CONFERENCE FINALS IN HIS LIFE. Where he got swept as best player on his team.

Lillard, much like Paul ( top 5 PG ever, never able to carry team on his own) , or Westbrook ( regardless of sentiment of him ) never was able to carry team. Because since Jordan and Bird, to this date, nba belongs to +6'6 tall, lenghty wings.

I said Lillard is best case for Suggs. It would be freaking amazing if he comes close. But same Lillard still, most of the time is , second round exit player. Harsh reality.

[pepe1991]

Wow...we are six months into our rebuild and you already have our players' and team's peak, years down the road, figured out. Someone get Alex Martins on the phone. Tell him to blow up the blow up, and hire this man.

Without superstar wing you can't compete. Everybody knows that i assume
Keep your sarcasm at home.
Porter, Isaac are not transending wing talents, those teams simply would never be match to Giannis, Tatum, Durant likes of the world. Harsh reality.

As for Suggs as best player, Lillard is apsolute best case and he can' t lead team pass second round.

Happy to see you came around on Mikal Bridges.

And as for Porter, you don't have to squint too hard to see a 25 ppg scorer. Scoring is not everything but it's something. Porter, Durant, and KP, are probably the three guys in the league that are always open, in that they can shoot over everybody.

Porter and Mikal are superstar wings?



Porter can probably average 25 ppg on bad teams. Does that mean he should? He makes nobody around him better, he is blind when it comes to passing and his defense is at times, simply, laughable.

Extracted from stardom of Jokić, who is already pacing himself into HOF and very good Murray, everything about Porter yells " worst Carmelo Anthony ".

[jonbob17]

Without superstar wing you can't compete. Everybody knows that i assume
Keep your sarcasm at home.
Porter, Isaac are not transending wing talents, those teams simply would never be match to Giannis, Tatum, Durant likes of the world. Harsh reality.

As for Suggs as best player, Lillard is apsolute best case and he can' t lead team pass second round.

Happy to see you came around on Mikal Bridges.

And as for Porter, you don't have to squint too hard to see a 25 ppg scorer. Scoring is not everything but it's something. Porter, Durant, and KP, are probably the three guys in the league that are always open, in that they can shoot over everybody.

Porter and Mikal are superstar wings?



Porter can probably average 25 ppg on bad teams. Does that mean he should? He makes nobody around him better, he is blind when it comes to passing and his defense is at times, simply, laughable.

Extracted from stardom of Jokić, who is already pacing himself into HOF and very good Murray, everything about Porter yells " worst Carmelo Anthony ".

You said, "Without superstar wing you can't compete. Everybody knows that i assume". Suns went 6 games in the Finals, i am assuming that meets the definition of competing. Does that make Mikal Bridges a superstar wing?

[jonbob17]

Wow...I really hope he sucks like Lillard does

Pump a breaks.

Lillard is probably third best PG in nba and top 10 PG in nba history imo. That's how highly i think of him.
HOWEVER, Lillard played ONE CONFERENCE FINALS IN HIS LIFE. Where he got swept as best player on his team.

Lillard, much like Paul ( top 5 PG ever, never able to carry team on his own) , or Westbrook ( regardless of sentiment of him ) never was able to carry team. Because since Jordan and Bird, to this date, nba belongs to +6'6 tall, lenghty wings.

I said Lillard is best case for Suggs. It would be freaking amazing if he comes close. But same Lillard still, most of the time is , second round exit player. Harsh reality.

Not sure I understand the Lillard comp for suggs, even though I have seen plenty of the draft media suggest it. Portland's shortcomings have been that they have 2 undersized guards (both are 6'2") that don't play defense, and haven't found a way to build out the rest of the roster to cover the guards' holes.

Lillard 6'2. 188 as a rookie. Never been a good defender. Suggs 6'4" (more likely 6'3") 205lbs. looks to be good defender already and an elite rebounder for a guard. Very different bodies, different players.

With that said, if this rebuild resulted in us finding a player as talented and as fun as Lillard, and got us into the playoffs for the next 10 years and one conference final. I would take it in a second. A conference final has to be looked at as a success in the NBA these days. I think any GM would be happy with that peak...short of the ones currently holding full houses.

[BCS]

The thing is we are a small market and the Magic at that, if we want decent players here in FA we will have to overpay for them. My decision on overpaying for MPjr will come down to our draft this year, if we are able to get someone to complement Suggs, Isaac, and MPjr fits perfectly with them, I have no problem overpaying to get him similar to what we did for Rashard Lewis.

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[drsd]

The thing is we are a small market and the Magic at that, if we want decent players here in FA we will have to overpay for them. My decision on overpaying for MPjr will come down to our draft this year, if we are able to get someone to complement Suggs, Isaac, and MPjr fits perfectly with them, I have no problem overpaying to get him similar to what we did for Rashard Lewis.

hat is overpaying Porter, a player that had one of the all time most efficient offensive seasons?

Is there a max+ offer to provide?

..

[BCS]

The thing is we are a small market and the Magic at that, if we want decent players here in FA we will have to overpay for them. My decision on overpaying for MPjr will come down to our draft this year, if we are able to get someone to complement Suggs, Isaac, and MPjr fits perfectly with them, I have no problem overpaying to get him similar to what we did for Rashard Lewis.

hat is overpaying Porter, a player that had one of the all time most efficient offensive seasons?

Is there a max+ offer to provide?

..

I am assuming giving him the max, whatever that amount is.

Either way next year will be telling for him on if he is worth a max or not. A full year with no substantial injury and we can stop talking about him being an injury waiting to happen and imo likely worth the max contract as long as he does not regress.



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[Xatticus]

The thing is we are a small market and the Magic at that, if we want decent players here in FA we will have to overpay for them. My decision on overpaying for MPjr will come down to our draft this year, if we are able to get someone to complement Suggs, Isaac, and MPjr fits perfectly with them, I have no problem overpaying to get him similar to what we did for Rashard Lewis.

hat is overpaying Porter, a player that had one of the all time most efficient offensive seasons?

Is there a max+ offer to provide?

..

I am assuming giving him the max, whatever that amount is.

Either way next year will be telling for him on if he is worth a max or not. A full year with no substantial injury and we can stop talking about him being an injury waiting to happen and imo likely worth the max contract as long as he does not regress.



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Is this going to be a thing all year long? Denver isn’t letting him walk. They don’t give Gordon that contract if they don’t already know whether or not they will have the money for MPJ.

[pepe1991]

Wow...I really hope he sucks like Lillard does

Pump a breaks.

Lillard is probably third best PG in nba and top 10 PG in nba history imo. That's how highly i think of him.
HOWEVER, Lillard played ONE CONFERENCE FINALS IN HIS LIFE. Where he got swept as best player on his team.

Lillard, much like Paul ( top 5 PG ever, never able to carry team on his own) , or Westbrook ( regardless of sentiment of him ) never was able to carry team. Because since Jordan and Bird, to this date, nba belongs to +6'6 tall, lenghty wings.

I said Lillard is best case for Suggs. It would be freaking amazing if he comes close. But same Lillard still, most of the time is , second round exit player. Harsh reality.

Not sure I understand the Lillard comp for suggs, even though I have seen plenty of the draft media suggest it. Portland's shortcomings have been that they have 2 undersized guards (both are 6'2") that don't play defense, and haven't found a way to build out the rest of the roster to cover the guards' holes.

Lillard 6'2. 188 as a rookie. Never been a good defender. Suggs 6'4" (more likely 6'3") 205lbs. looks to be good defender already and an elite rebounder for a guard. Very different bodies, different players.

With that said, if this rebuild resulted in us finding a player as talented and as fun as Lillard, and got us into the playoffs for the next 10 years and one conference final. I would take it in a second. A conference final has to be looked at as a success in the NBA these days. I think any GM would be happy with that peak...short of the ones currently holding full houses.

It doesn't matter is your guard 6'0 or 6'4, guards simply don't carry teams to sucess that you hope for.
Lillard is best case for any guard in basketball.
Same Lillard career splits in regular season are: 25 ppg, 44% FG,37,6 for 3 , 58,3 % TS, 52,4% eFG
Dame Lillard playoff performances: 25 ppg, 6,2 apg, 41,2% FG, 36,9% for 3, 56% TS, 49,3% eFG
IN playoffs he simply plays worst. And this is ongoing thread with every single ballhandler who isn't +6'6 or taller. From Paul to Curry and Lillard to lower tear guards. They simply struggle to keep efficiency and production once they get to playoffs, because, by default, they are always smallest people on the floor.

A conference final has to be looked at as a success in the NBA these days. I think any GM would be happy with that peak...short of the ones currently holding full houses.

Playing like top tear player for 8 years and being bounced 4 times in last 5 years in first round isn't sucess.
As amazing as Lillard is, and he is amazing, his playoff record is depressing. In last 8 years he lost in first round 5 times, 2 times in second round and one time he got to WCF he got swept.

Over years he collected 22 wins and 36 losses in nba playoffs.


And even if Suggs is next Lillard (and that's not very objective at all ) , Orlando would still need elite wing , who is also at worst - secundary ballhandler to compete for title. That's reality of nba. In perfect world your best player has to be wing. Or you simply won't be contender. Durant, Lebron, Kawhi to now Giannis all have same thing in common- 6'7 or taller -ballhandling wings. Those 4 guys won 9 titles, including 7 of last 8 ( odd one was that healthy Warriors vs Lebron and G league squad, and even in that finals, it wasn't Curry who was able to really impose his regular season-self onto a game, it was versitale wing, Igoudala, who won finals MVP instad , as Curry really,really struggled,especially in game two where he shot 5-23 from field, game they lost ).

[drsd]

I am assuming giving him the max, whatever that amount is.

Either way next year will be telling for him on if he is worth a max or not. A full year with no substantial injury and we can stop talking about him being an injury waiting to happen and imo likely worth the max contract as long as he does not regress.

In his rookie year, where he played in 67% of the games, he had an eFG% of 59%. In his sophomore season, where he played in 85% of the games, he had an eFG% 64.6% Those are ridiculous stat lines.

If he stays like this, Porter will be the most efficient scorer in NBA history. These are 60s/70s Chamberlain-like stat lines.

Porter just avoids bad plays and only takes "good" shots. Is he the MOST coachable player in today's NBA? Probably.

..

[pepe1991]

The thing is we are a small market and the Magic at that, if we want decent players here in FA we will have to overpay for them. My decision on overpaying for MPjr will come down to our draft this year, if we are able to get someone to complement Suggs, Isaac, and MPjr fits perfectly with them, I have no problem overpaying to get him similar to what we did for Rashard Lewis.

hat is overpaying Porter, a player that had one of the all time most efficient offensive seasons?

Is there a max+ offer to provide?

..

Context of how execlly he is efficient is needed.

His isolations are rare, and far between. Over 2 years he was put into isolations less than 50 times. Sucess rate is rather mediocre one one (11/27 in 20-21 and 7/16 in 19-20 season ).

His postups, something that would be rather expected for somebody who is 6'10, are also, rare and far between.
He had 21 postup in 2020-21 ( 5-17 FG) and and 13 year before ( 6-11 FG).

In ballhandling situations in pick&roll, once again, same issue, over 2 yeras we can hardly squeeze anything ( 19-20 , 20 posesssions, 3-18 FG, 21-22 season 40 possessions 20-37 FG ).

So how execlly he creates his efficiency and points?
And answer is simple but complicated in terms of re-inventing same sucess on other teams.
First, It's spotups. He had 241 spot ups, with ranked him top 50 in that category.

Second, it's cuts, he is top 20 player in 2020-21 season when it comes to amount of cuts. 125 cuts led to 72-101 FG.

Problem. How many of those cuts are direct result of his talent , opposite of Jokić? Let's find out.
Gordon in 25 games had 44 cuts, 64% FG in 42 shots for Denver.

Gordon in 25 games for Orlando had 21 cut.

Jeremy Grant on Denver had 96 cuts, 73% eFG year prior.
Jeremy Grant on Pistons had 46 cuts whole season on Detroit, 54% FG

2018-19, until he was still mobile enough, Paul Millsap had second career high in cuts, 125. Again, with Jokić.

Verdict. it's Jokić effect more than anything else.


Third, it's transition.
This one doesn't need much explanation, Jokić being best full court passer out there, all team has benefits.
Porter was their leaking guy in transition and their main target. That's why he had 209 possessions in transition, vs second best, Barton, at 134 possessions.

Fourth. Everything is created for him to suceed.

91,8% of all threes he made were assisted. 71,4% of all his 2 FGM are assisted.
List of players who has that sort of assistence is so short, that i will link it in spoiler

Spoiler:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/scoring/?sort=MIN&dir=-1&CF=GP*GE*20:MIN*GE*17:PCT_AST_3PM*GE*90:PCT_AST_2PM*GE*70&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

according to filter, only 11 nba players play 30 mpg with this sort of luxury to take all shots assisted. Among them is Mikal Bridges, guy who is also trown here as " savior" , and this sort of luxury to play on team that sets him up so much, is key reason i'm pulling back on him being $100M + player. And other guys who are there, Joe Harris and Reggie Bullock are my "bulletpoints" and explanations how their sucess has strong roots in team power more than their amazing individual talent.



Biggest strenght Michael has over most other players is ability to shoot contested shots. And there is something to be said about it. He is terrific 35% three point shooter where is contested well. He is also very,very effective from 2 point when he is covered.
His lenght here plays huge part of his sucess.

I won't harp too much about his defense , lack of understanding how to position himself or his inability to move feet fast enough to be good defender( those things are obvious ) or his lack of playmaking ( also, too obvious to point).
My point about him is that he is efficient because he plays on team that puts him into position where he can be best version of himself. playing along side best passing big in history, who is also league's MVP and one of best players in nba. We know for fact that players have huge uptick in efficency around elte players. We can look at Bobby Portis, and see he was career 52% TS player, than he played along side Giannis and become 11 ppg- 60% TS player. Same happend to Jrue Holdiay or any guard who played with Lebron -ever.

Michael is good young player. But team around him makes him great. Michael might has "effective 20 ppg" in him and he probably would be 22-24 ppg scorer on poor teams alredy. But Mitchael Porter jr has $168M price tag next to his name when it comes to maximum contract ( by Denver) or $134,4M by 29 other teams. Given his injury riddled history, his family issues with health, his tunnel vision, lack of defense and inability to make anybody around but himself look good, i would think twice before stepping into a "marriage" with him. You sign him, and he gets hurt or plays like some Melo-lite, Rudy Gay-type, Wiggins-lite, you pretty much buried whole rebuild.

[Bergmaniac]

Jokic is amazing, but stats show that Porter is a really efficient scorer even when Jokic is on the bench. Last season he played 390 minutes without Jokic and his efficiency in these minutes was an absurd 69.6 TS% on a pretty high usage rate (26.4%). Sure, most of these minutes were probably against largely bench lineups, but it's still very impressive.

[p0peye]

Thanks pepe for putting data behind what my eye test was telling me.

[pepe1991]

Jokic is amazing, but stats show that Porter is a really efficient scorer even when Jokic is on the bench. Last season he played 390 minutes without Jokic and his efficiency in these minutes was an absurd 69.6 TS% on a pretty high usage rate (26.4%). Sure, most of these minutes were probably against largely bench lineups, but it's still very impressive.

It would be nice to see 10 games or so of Porter without Jokic, issue is, Jokic missed 0 games in 2 years.
Another issuse is that Jokic is playing 35 mpg, so most of the time when he is sitting extensed min, it's garbage time.
To add more context to in 15 games Jokic played below 30 min in 20-21, Nuggets have 13-2 record.
Year before it was similar, 19 games with >30 min played, their record was 14-5.

I do like MP jr, i think he has lot elite shooting potential and he could be "Klay like" , without defense, with better rebounding type. But i don't trust his health nor i think he can be lead man on championship team.

[jonbob17]

hat is overpaying Porter, a player that had one of the all time most efficient offensive seasons?

Is there a max+ offer to provide?

..

I am assuming giving him the max, whatever that amount is.

Either way next year will be telling for him on if he is worth a max or not. A full year with no substantial injury and we can stop talking about him being an injury waiting to happen and imo likely worth the max contract as long as he does not regress.



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Is this going to be a thing all year long? Denver isn’t letting him walk. They don’t give Gordon that contract if they don’t already know whether or not they will have the money for MPJ.

1st years starting at 25% of salary cap is the max for Porter, 5/168. Denver can offer him more than other teams next offseason. If he were to make an all nba team this year he could make the supermax. I believe Luka was the first eliglble for this rookie deal extension. 5/207

This is silly. Porter will almost certainly be extended before the season. Will it be the max? Probably. Maybe there is a team option for year 5, maybe some games played insurance. The trend has been that the best players have been getting player options in year 5 so they can get back to free agency sooner, don't think MPJ gets that. Giving the option to the team, helps with insurance risk.

The only chance the Magic would have a shot at him, is Denver couldn't get the extension done this offseason, and he were to get hurt or was terrible this season, and then be the highest bidder next year (probably still max or near max)

It's in the best interest of both the team and the player to get this done. So it will, and Denver will be paying a lot of tax, but they've probably known that for a while.

[sChOlaRlY_Magi]

That Ben Simmons situation is looking worse everyday...

Where do you all think he ends up?

Also, what's with the Primadonna talk?

I remember the first time I saw Jordan in the ECF against the Magic, I was sitting so close I could hear him Trash talking. At one point he told Anderson what he was going to do to him, and I started to say, "What an A----- oh! He did that ish, after telling him!!!"

So I've always thought these guys have to think they're the best, that's how they made it to the NBA.


Not calling Simmons, Jordan, but I would think most of the league is like that to a point.

[basketballRob]

I am assuming giving him the max, whatever that amount is.

Either way next year will be telling for him on if he is worth a max or not. A full year with no substantial injury and we can stop talking about him being an injury waiting to happen and imo likely worth the max contract as long as he does not regress.



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Is this going to be a thing all year long? Denver isn’t letting him walk. They don’t give Gordon that contract if they don’t already know whether or not they will have the money for MPJ.

1st years starting at 25% of salary cap is the max for Porter, 5/168. Denver can offer him more than other teams next offseason. If he were to make an all nba team this year he could make the supermax. I believe Luka was the first eliglble for this rookie deal extension. 5/207

This is silly. Porter will almost certainly be extended before the season. Will it be the max? Probably. Maybe there is a team option for year 5, maybe some games played insurance. The trend has been that the best players have been getting player options in year 5 so they can get back to free agency sooner, don't think MPJ gets that. Giving the option to the team, helps with insurance risk.

The only chance the Magic would have a shot at him, is Denver couldn't get the extension done this offseason, and he were to get hurt or was terrible this season, and then be the highest bidder next year (probably still max or near max)

It's in the best interest of both the team and the player to get this done. So it will, and Denver will be paying a lot of tax, but they've probably known that for a while.

Denver already has two other high max players, and I think the chances of them carrying 3 max contracts, is slim.

Denver doesn't have the Warriors or Lakers type money to burn. You see how tough it is for a team like Portland to have 2 max players, and try to stay under the tax threshold.

The Suns are in a tough position too. The owner has been notoriously cheap. Ayton and Bridges are both eligible for extensions.

[jonbob17]

Denver already has two other high max players, and I think the chances of them carrying 3 max contracts, is slim.

Denver doesn't have the Warriors or Lakers type money to burn. You see how tough it is for a team like Portland to have 2 max players, and try to stay under the tax threshold.

The Suns are in a tough position too. The owner has been notoriously cheap. Ayton and Bridges are both eligible for extensions.

a rookie max extension isn't really the same thing as the third contract max. The Suns have Booker on a rookie extension, and Paul is on a 4/120
Ayton probably gets a max that starts about $28 and change, so basically they will have 3 guys making $90M with the tax starting at $145M.

They can make that work. You don't break up a Finals team, a young Finals team, over some tax

The very least they sign both Ayton and Bridges, and if the team doesn't live up to expectations they can move one of the four easily.

They also have Cam Johnson coming off his rookie deal next year.