Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team"

[JBSouthpaw]

Is there a drop dead time for J.I. or Fultz extensions?
I was expecting J.I.s to be done before the start
I was fine with a wait and see with Fultz.

extensions for 2017 draft class have to be signed by 12/21; last day before season starts.

thanks.


Don't see Fultz getting 20M a year, especially before the season.
SO many PGs I'd take before giving him that dollar amount.
VanVleet just got 21.5 and Fultz isn't in his class on his best day.
Dejounte Murray is only getting 16M.
Marcus Smart at 13M is probably his range. Marcus has gotten is 3pt % up to 35%.

[drsd]

I think the play in Tournament killed any chance for a early tank job. Even at the deadline i cant really see it. They ignored every bad starts (or even bad first 40 games) the last 2 years too. Plus, i'm still not 100% sold on Atlanta & Charlotte being better than us. Charlotte was 10 wins worse than us & added injury phrone Hayward & a rookie PG (who's gonna be a negative player). Atlanta added to a bad defensive team, including the worst defender in the leaque, another bunch of non defenders. I can see both being better than us, but i woudnt bet on it for sure.

And-1

"At least they will be fun to watch."

For me, you know what is fun? Winning actual basketball games.


..

[zaymon]

They just added:
Clint Capela ( 14 ppg, 14 rpg )
Bogdan Bogdanovic ( 15 ppg, 3,5 rpg, 3,5 ppg, 37% three point shooter )
Danilo Galinari ( 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 40,5% three point shooter)
Tony Snell ( 8 ppg, 40% three point shooter )
Rajon Rondo ( playoffs 9 ppg, 6,6 apg -most apg by backup in nba finals history )
Kriss Dunn ( one of best guard defenders )

There is not a single player on that list that I would have wanted the Magic to sign.

It's possible that a bunch of players that I'm glad we don't have will transform a team that was worse than us into a team that is better than us, but that seems unlikely to me.

Tier 1
Bucks
Heat
Celtics
Tier 2
Raptors
Sixers
Nets
Tier 3
Pacers
Pistons
Hawks
Magic
Hornets
Wizards
Tier 4
Bulls
Cavaliers
Knicks

Lets be real we took a big step back this year. We replaced our best ball handler with rookie and almost no backup plan (MCW). We lost our best defender to injury. We didnt trade Gordon for better fit. If we end up top 6 it will mean our young core is legit. If we can reach post season this year with 22 and 20 y.o ball handlers it means we are propably set for a long time. Our tier consists of 6 teams. Realistically we can finish 7-12. Worst (best?) case scenario we will have 5-7 th best odds for the number 1 pick. Thats 42%/37%/32% chance to be in the top 4. Not that bad. Finishing 10 is propably the last spot with realistic top 4 chances at 20 % ( next is 14 %). A lot will depend on Wolves and Warriors. Their ascension could give eastern teams even better chances.

Pacers Brogdon/Oladipo/Warren/Sabonis/Turner. + good bench
Pistons Rose/Galloway/Grant/Griffin/Dedmon + bad bench (depending how they mix it with starters)
Hawks Young/Bogdanovic/Reddish/Collins/Capela + good bench
Magic Fultz/Fournier/Ennis/Gordon/Vucevic + good bench
Hornets Ball/Rozier/Hayward/Washington/Zeller + average bench
Wizards Wall/Beal/Brown/Bertans/Bryant + average bench

I think its safe to say if Fultz doesnt shoot 3s we can finish last in our tier. That could give us very high odds in the lottery. If Fultz shoots 3s our trajectory as a team changes and we will be happy outside lottery.

[Catledge]

They just added:
Clint Capela ( 14 ppg, 14 rpg )
Bogdan Bogdanovic ( 15 ppg, 3,5 rpg, 3,5 ppg, 37% three point shooter )
Danilo Galinari ( 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 40,5% three point shooter)
Tony Snell ( 8 ppg, 40% three point shooter )
Rajon Rondo ( playoffs 9 ppg, 6,6 apg -most apg by backup in nba finals history )
Kriss Dunn ( one of best guard defenders )

There is not a single player on that list that I would have wanted the Magic to sign.

It's possible that a bunch of players that I'm glad we don't have will transform a team that was worse than us into a team that is better than us, but that seems unlikely to me.

Tier 1
Bucks
Heat
Celtics
Tier 2
Raptors
Sixers
Nets
Tier 3
Pacers
Pistons
Hawks
Magic
Hornets
Wizards
Tier 4
Bulls
Cavaliers
Knicks

Lets be real we took a big step back this year. We replaced our best ball handler with rookie and almost no backup plan (MCW). We lost our best defender to injury. We didnt trade Gordon for better fit. If we end up top 6 it will mean our young core is legit. If we can reach post season this year with 22 and 20 y.o ball handlers it means we are propably set for a long time. Our tier consists of 6 teams. Realistically we can finish 7-12. Worst (best?) case scenario we will have 5-7 th best odds for the number 1 pick. Thats 42%/37%/32% chance to be in the top 4. Not that bad. Finishing 10 is propably the last spot with realistic top 4 chances at 20 % ( next is 14 %). A lot will depend on Wolves and Warriors. Their ascension could give eastern teams even better chances.

Pacers Brogdon/Oladipo/Warren/Sabonis/Turner. + good bench
Pistons Rose/Galloway/Grant/Griffin/Dedmon + bad bench (depending how they mix it with starters)
Hawks Young/Bogdanovic/Reddish/Collins/Capela + good bench
Magic Fultz/Fournier/Ennis/Gordon/Vucevic + good bench
Hornets Ball/Rozier/Hayward/Washington/Zeller + average bench
Wizards Wall/Beal/Brown/Bertans/Bryant + average bench

I think its safe to say if Fultz doesnt shoot 3s we can finish last in our tier. That could give us very high odds in the lottery. If Fultz shoots 3s our trajectory as a team changes and we will be happy outside lottery.

The nice thing about our situation is that if none of our long-shot hopes (Fultz/AG evolving, Okeke/Anthony outperforming their draft spots), then we will be bad enough naturally to get a top-8 pick, and maybe better if we give up and tank at the ASB.

And if some or all of our long-shot hopes work out, then we have a fun team to watch this year with hopes for a decent future.

[zaymon]

There is not a single player on that list that I would have wanted the Magic to sign.

It's possible that a bunch of players that I'm glad we don't have will transform a team that was worse than us into a team that is better than us, but that seems unlikely to me.

Tier 1
Bucks
Heat
Celtics
Tier 2
Raptors
Sixers
Nets
Tier 3
Pacers
Pistons
Hawks
Magic
Hornets
Wizards
Tier 4
Bulls
Cavaliers
Knicks

Lets be real we took a big step back this year. We replaced our best ball handler with rookie and almost no backup plan (MCW). We lost our best defender to injury. We didnt trade Gordon for better fit. If we end up top 6 it will mean our young core is legit. If we can reach post season this year with 22 and 20 y.o ball handlers it means we are propably set for a long time. Our tier consists of 6 teams. Realistically we can finish 7-12. Worst (best?) case scenario we will have 5-7 th best odds for the number 1 pick. Thats 42%/37%/32% chance to be in the top 4. Not that bad. Finishing 10 is propably the last spot with realistic top 4 chances at 20 % ( next is 14 %). A lot will depend on Wolves and Warriors. Their ascension could give eastern teams even better chances.

Pacers Brogdon/Oladipo/Warren/Sabonis/Turner. + good bench
Pistons Rose/Galloway/Grant/Griffin/Dedmon + bad bench (depending how they mix it with starters)
Hawks Young/Bogdanovic/Reddish/Collins/Capela + good bench
Magic Fultz/Fournier/Ennis/Gordon/Vucevic + good bench
Hornets Ball/Rozier/Hayward/Washington/Zeller + average bench
Wizards Wall/Beal/Brown/Bertans/Bryant + average bench

I think its safe to say if Fultz doesnt shoot 3s we can finish last in our tier. That could give us very high odds in the lottery. If Fultz shoots 3s our trajectory as a team changes and we will be happy outside lottery.

The nice thing about our situation is that if none of our long-shot hopes (Fultz/AG evolving, Okeke/Anthony outperforming their draft spots), then we will be bad enough naturally to get a top-8 pick, and maybe better if we give up and tank at the ASB.

And if some or all of our long-shot hopes work out, then we have a fun team to watch this year with hopes for a decent future.

Honestly, when i look at our depth chart it could be the sneakiest tank jobs ever If Fultz is not mip candidate and Gordon still sucks we look shaky even compared to Hornets. They still have Graham as an average ball handler if Ball is bad. Wizards could also be a lot better depending on Wall.

[Nyce_1]

Is there a drop dead time for J.I. or Fultz extensions?
I was expecting J.I.s to be done before the start
I was fine with a wait and see with Fultz.

extensions for 2017 draft class have to be signed by 12/21; last day before season starts.

thanks.


Don't see Fultz getting 20M a year, especially before the season.
SO many PGs I'd take before giving him that dollar amount.
VanVleet just got 21.5 and Fultz isn't in his class on his best day.
Dejounte Murray is only getting 16M.
Marcus Smart at 13M is probably his range. Marcus has gotten is 3pt % up to 35%.

I agree, i don't see Fultz getting $20M but teams don't pay young players based what they are now. If they project him to have a BETTER season, improved shooting, and get max on the open market next summer, they very well could look and say $20M is a "bargain".

As for your comparisons:
Fultz can, and should, be better than FVV within the next 4 years. I could see this salary number used as a reference by his agent.

I'd say Fultz is already on par with Murray; if not better. If we only paid him $16M, that would be a super bargain.

Smart is underpaid for what he provides Boston. He'll be getting a raise after next (21-22) season & Fultz will be better than Smart. I'd say Smart gets bumped to $16-18M. Logically, Fultz should make more than this.

After going through the examples...yeah, I could see Fultz making $20M if the FO is confident in his abilities taking another few steps over the next 4 years.

[pepe1991]

They just added:
Clint Capela ( 14 ppg, 14 rpg )
Bogdan Bogdanovic ( 15 ppg, 3,5 rpg, 3,5 ppg, 37% three point shooter )
Danilo Galinari ( 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 40,5% three point shooter)
Tony Snell ( 8 ppg, 40% three point shooter )
Rajon Rondo ( playoffs 9 ppg, 6,6 apg -most apg by backup in nba finals history )
Kriss Dunn ( one of best guard defenders )

There is not a single player on that list that I would have wanted the Magic to sign.

It's possible that a bunch of players that I'm glad we don't have will transform a team that was worse than us into a team that is better than us, but that seems unlikely to me.

This is strange point to make. Comes without saying that Bogdan and Galinari would be Magic second best players on offense.
Galo is definition of advanced stat darling. He either shoots 3s or free throws.
Bogdan is versitale two guard who can run offense with bench unit of space the floor with outside shooting.

It's not impossible that Hawks thing goes terrible, but i also think there is objective chance where they can win 45 games and even jump to 5-6th seed this year.

Snell, Dunn, Rondo, well they are better than Bacon and Ennis, that's a given.

[pepe1991]

If you are missing playoffs, why would you even want to pay Fultz ? Suggs and Cunnigham are in lottery . You can see where pick landed before making decision. It's not like teams are lining up to sign no shot point guard in 2021 and just burn $20M of cap space on blind hope he can relearn how to shoot, despite showing no progress for almost half of decade at that point.

[Catledge]

They just added:
Clint Capela ( 14 ppg, 14 rpg )
Bogdan Bogdanovic ( 15 ppg, 3,5 rpg, 3,5 ppg, 37% three point shooter )
Danilo Galinari ( 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 40,5% three point shooter)
Tony Snell ( 8 ppg, 40% three point shooter )
Rajon Rondo ( playoffs 9 ppg, 6,6 apg -most apg by backup in nba finals history )
Kriss Dunn ( one of best guard defenders )

There is not a single player on that list that I would have wanted the Magic to sign.

It's possible that a bunch of players that I'm glad we don't have will transform a team that was worse than us into a team that is better than us, but that seems unlikely to me.

This is strange point to make. Comes without saying that Bogdan and Galinari would be Magic second best players on offense.
Galo is definition of advanced stat darling. He either shoots 3s or free throws.
Bogdan is versitale two guard who can run offense with bench unit of space the floor with outside shooting.

It's not impossible that Hawks thing goes terrible, but i also think there is objective chance where they can win 45 games and even jump to 5-6th seed this year.

Snell, Dunn, Rondo, well they are better than Bacon and Ennis, that's a given.

Bogdan is an inferior version of Fournier, and Gallo is a standing jump shooter at this point in his career and has always been a weak defender. I would have been extremely disappointed if we had spent resources on getting those guys.

[pepe1991]

There is not a single player on that list that I would have wanted the Magic to sign.

It's possible that a bunch of players that I'm glad we don't have will transform a team that was worse than us into a team that is better than us, but that seems unlikely to me.

This is strange point to make. Comes without saying that Bogdan and Galinari would be Magic second best players on offense.
Galo is definition of advanced stat darling. He either shoots 3s or free throws.
Bogdan is versitale two guard who can run offense with bench unit of space the floor with outside shooting.

It's not impossible that Hawks thing goes terrible, but i also think there is objective chance where they can win 45 games and even jump to 5-6th seed this year.

Snell, Dunn, Rondo, well they are better than Bacon and Ennis, that's a given.

Bogdan is an inferior version of Fournier, and Gallo is a standing jump shooter at this point in his career and has always been a weak defender. I would have been extremely disappointed if we had spent resources on getting those guys.

i saw waaay too much international head to heads to know that on good team Bogdan >>Evan and it's not even funny how much more talented Bogdan is. He just spent NBA career on trash Kings.

Galo is streach PF at this stage. But elite shooter non less. Also elite scorer if you see how little shots he takes to get to his 17-19 ppg.

[SOUL]

Agree with pepe here. Bogdan offers more versatility in scoring/ball handling imo, and is just as good as a shooter.

Danilo is actually pretty elite when it comes to offense and how efficient he is.



His offensive PIPM stats (which incorporate a lot of advanced stats combined together) has him in elite company and it's not like there's low usage guys sprinkled in there to call it bull.

[nicnac215]

Zhaire Smith was just waived by the Pistons. Could be a good flier pick up.

[basketballRob]

Zhaire Smith was just waived by the Pistons. Could be a good flier pick up.

Another brilliant move by Brand to trade a hometown Mikal Bridges for Smith.

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[pepe1991]

Hezonja will soon be without team, we can take him and cut him day before season, just for fun

[yoyojw17]

Atlanta was 26th in offense last season, we were 21st. Atlanta was 28th in defense and we were 9th.

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats

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They just added:
Clint Capela ( 14 ppg, 14 rpg )
Bogdan Bogdanovic ( 15 ppg, 3,5 rpg, 3,5 ppg, 37% three point shooter )
Danilo Galinari ( 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 40,5% three point shooter)
Tony Snell ( 8 ppg, 40% three point shooter )
Rajon Rondo ( playoffs 9 ppg, 6,6 apg -most apg by backup in nba finals history )
Kriss Dunn ( one of best guard defenders )


This roster will score. This roster wlil have very, very good offensve. Can they defend is real question. But goes without saying they are more talented team than Magic. We split series against their G league roster last year, we have same roster, their roster is well improved. Without even taking in considirations Young, Collins, Hunter, Huerter, Reddish will improve...
Magic, as projected right now, are 9th to 10th seed play- in team.

We split against the Lakers last season too.

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And i get it too... for some people they have no problem overlooking internal growth. But at the same time... there are no guarantees just cuz they "look better on paper". I personally am excited about cole and chuma additions. If people want to already disregard their potential... then for most... "we haven't added anything". And there is still the growth of fultz and bamba. once again... people might simplify everything and boil it down to... they are gonna be the same as last year. For me... Fultz is going to take a load of the usage off of other players... and in doing so... things will change drastically for us. And bamba... coming in at 250 lb... I will reserve judgement and see what he does with that extra weight. So... many are humdrummed about this season.... especially without Isaac... I'm still excited bout what we have left to play... and I don't believe this season will be a loss at all. Might even have some people having to backtrack on their previous outlooks.

but only time will tell. Tomorrow starts a new season... Let's Go Magic!

[Dubious Kitty]

Weltman is the most pathetic PBO since Alex Martins

[pepe1991]

They just added:
Clint Capela ( 14 ppg, 14 rpg )
Bogdan Bogdanovic ( 15 ppg, 3,5 rpg, 3,5 ppg, 37% three point shooter )
Danilo Galinari ( 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 40,5% three point shooter)
Tony Snell ( 8 ppg, 40% three point shooter )
Rajon Rondo ( playoffs 9 ppg, 6,6 apg -most apg by backup in nba finals history )
Kriss Dunn ( one of best guard defenders )


This roster will score. This roster wlil have very, very good offensve. Can they defend is real question. But goes without saying they are more talented team than Magic. We split series against their G league roster last year, we have same roster, their roster is well improved. Without even taking in considirations Young, Collins, Hunter, Huerter, Reddish will improve...
Magic, as projected right now, are 9th to 10th seed play- in team.

We split against the Lakers last season too.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And i get it too... for some people they have no problem overlooking internal growth. But at the same time... there are no guarantees just cuz they "look better on paper". I personally am excited about cole and chuma additions. If people want to already disregard their potential... then for most... "we haven't added anything". And there is still the growth of fultz and bamba. once again... people might simplify everything and boil it down to... they are gonna be the same as last year. For me... Fultz is going to take a load of the usage off of other players... and in doing so... things will change drastically for us. And bamba... coming in at 250 lb... I will reserve judgement and see what he does with that extra weight. So... many are humdrummed about this season.... especially without Isaac... I'm still excited bout what we have left to play... and I don't believe this season will be a loss at all. Might even have some people having to backtrack on their previous outlooks.

but only time will tell. Tomorrow starts a new season... Let's Go Magic!

And Atlanta doesn't stand chance for internal growth?
Trae Young ( 22)
Collins ( 23)
Deanre Hunter (22)
Huerter (22)
Reddish (21)
Fernando (22)
Okongwu (19)


We objectivlly got worst at PG spot and at SF spot. We flipped Iwundu (not world beater but somewhat decent deep bench guy) with Bacon, who isn't even deep bench guy.
That's pretty much it.
You expect to take Fultz load from who? Magic are bringing same starting 5 back.
Evan is in contract year, Gordon is year away from being expiring contract and pending trade is imminent. So they will stat-chace like crazy. Vuc will still be our go to guy.
You can be exited about whatever you want, you can get exited about way Clarke is tying his laces. But Magic win range for next season is 25-35. They won't tank so they won't drop lower due all play- in crap.
They also have no talent to win more.
I wouldn't even bet my money that healthy Wall and Beal won't surpass us in standings.

[drsd]

Tier 1
Bucks
Heat
Celtics
Tier 2
Raptors
Sixers
Nets
Tier 3
Pacers
Pistons
Hawks
Magic
Hornets
Wizards
Tier 4
Bulls
Cavaliers
Knicks

I would call this list an average expectation. But there will be "surprises."

The Heat could slide all the way to Tier-3 (and might be 50/50 as a Tier-2 team; indeed I would have placed them Tier-2 to start the season). The Sixers or the Nets could go Tier-1. Any in the whole of the Tier-3 could slide to Tier-4. The Bulls could climb to Tier-3.

What is certain for me is that one of the Tier-3 teams will "underperform". But I guess that's why they are in the third Tier to start with.


..

[basketballRob]

Two years ago Boston gave Jaylen Brown a 4 yr 107m dollar contract after he averaged 13 pts. Everyone here almost universally don't want to give Fultz a 4 yr 80m deal. I think it's a mistake and we're starting to look like a cheap organization that doesn't extend players.

Why would any player want to go here, when our M.O. is to never extend anyone? When was the last time a player got an extension at this Mickey Mouse place?

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[D12VCMagic]

I think giving Fultz or Isaac extensions is a mistake. Both guys have had huge injury issues and Fultz has been mediocre at best when healthy. He might improve, but how about he actually go out and improve before getting a big contract. He had moments of brilliance last year but many moments that had you shaking your head.

As for Isaac, I like what I see when healthy. But he’s never healthy. I’m tired of people wanting to bank the future of the franchise on him.

I’m not saying either guy sucks or has to go or anything but I would take future financial flexibility over banking on often injured players who haven’t accomplished anything.