Def Swami wrote:spinedoc wrote:Going into April, we are now being groomed that a death rate of 100K to 200K is expected and somehow a success, because its not 2 Million? I never thought we would be in this place, especially this soon. Okay, now I'm starting to get stressed.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/
This site shows all the updated models that Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have been using to make their predictions. As of Sunday night, the projections were 100k-200k deaths by July. Today the range is now about 36k to 150k deaths by August 1st, median range around 84K. Still a grim outlook, but as we get more data, it is showing that the social distancing is working. We can prevent a lot of this and change this outcome as much as we can if we all do our part to hunker down.
This is a pretty good site to see where we're at by state. Florida's cases are rising, but their peak won't hit until around early May. New York is about to peak in 8-9 days. They should recover quicker than other states, but their hospitals are taking a beating right now.
That's a good site, thank you. TN is nearly as bad as FL, I wouldn't have thought that. I know KY put out a state order to stay at home early, they are doing much better. I also knew GA was having some issues, but thought we were better than them right now. FL I figured was a mess given the news coming out of there with spring break, the beaches, and even allowing bike week to take place. All of TN, GA, and FL have failed to give state wide orders vs KY. I figured we were doing better than you guys because the Governor in TN isn't contradicting the mayors like FL is experiencing. Its confusing here though, a place like the Maytag plant is allowed to stay open, but close down small business like hair dressers and such. Meanwhile, the Volkswagon plant down the road closed voluntarily for two weeks, but they are obviously German owned. There isn't much rhyme or reason, but you can tell a lot more people are taking it very seriously here. Keep your spirits up and just remember your oath, this is a calling my brother. Do what you can, when you can, make a difference.
Edit: Just found out that TN Governor issues a "safer at home" executive order. Good, hope it makes a big difference. I still only have 9 cases in my county, and certainly don't want anymore.




















