Official Speculation Thread I

[NEM]

Players generally never become significantly better than they were in their 1st NBA season. With Harkless, we actually have a lot of stats of him playing big minutes. He projects to be a 12PPG, 6RPG, 2 AST, 1.5STL, 1 BLK player. If he makes a leap on his 3pt % like a Deng, he could be a 15PPG-16PPG. At best you're getting Igoudala, maybe Ariza.

If he doesn't show sustained improvement in his shooting percentages next season, I'd trade him, despite him being my favorite Magician behind Jameer. Odds are he never gets over 12PPG, but if he's going to break out, we'll see it in his percentages in the first few months.

And before anyone gets Paul George reference in, he bumped his 3point percentage up 2nd year and everything else pretty much went up in proportion to minutes played.

Qft

[magicman123]

We don't need to spend money, save it, except for a few low minimum type guys or 1year deals

[MellowRose]

Moe Harkless vs. Jimmy Butler - I think these players have a tremendous amount in common in terms of playing style, and I'm expecting Harkless to make a big jump this upcoming season just as Butler did.

I'm looking at the advanced stats section, fyi.

Harkless - http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lma01.html

Butler - http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eji01.html

Butler has a better 3 point shooting percentage, but that's where I'm projecting Harkless will have better numbers at this upcoming season.

Butler shot 49%, 35%, and 78% in college and just didn't shoot the 3 in his 1st year. He shot 47%, 38%, 80% in year 2 Otherwise, he's made no improvements really. He just went from playing 8 minutes a game to playing 26. If you project the numbers out to 36 MPG, he's a 12PPG/5RPG/2APG/1SPG guy.

True. But I think that if we were to replace Harkless with Butler, we'd see better shooting numbers from Butler. He's on a pretty stacked team (even last season) and plays within the system. Harkless can do whatever he feels like really.

My opinion of Harkless, is that he's young, putting up okay numbers, and that he'll definitely be better than Ariza. I'm just gonna enjoy watching these guys grow every season and not get too much into the comparisons / number games just yet.

[D12VCMagic]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

[MellowRose]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

I don't think anyone wants to take minutes away from Harkless and give them to BBD...

[ilikebeer]

We got to get Big Baby off the team. I wonder who would be willing to take him. He only has two seasons left on his deal at $6.4M and $6.6M. I think a team like Miami, Golden State, or Portland might want an extra big. I just don't see the point of taking minutes away from Tobias, Harkless, Nicholson, O'Quinn, and Vucevic.

[D12VCMagic]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

I don't think anyone wants to take minutes away from Harkless and give them to BBD...

A few pages back, Neon1 said that if healthy Davis should start and Harkless be the odd man out.

[rcklsscognition]

As I'm on my projection kick, go back and look at Tobias. Any dumbass could have seen in his first year in the NBA that Harris could score 18PPG/7.5RPG and hardly any assists, steals, or blocks if he started. He shot the same numbers in college as he did in the NBA pretty much.

Yr1- 11.4 MPG- 5PPG/2.4RPG/0.5APG/0.2BPG/0.3SPG
Yr2- 11.6 MPG- 4.9PPG/2RPG/0.5APG/0.3BPG/0.3SPG

Basically multiply all his stats by 3.15

Yr 3- 36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

This is not a fool-proof method by any means, but it does work generally in about 95% of the cases. What it shows is that players do not really improve that much, despite how much we think they do. Usually, they just play more minutes and do the same stuff more often. Occasionally you get a guy that increases his 3% percentage a lot, but generally, things are going to be the same even looking back to college.

Look at Tobias in college:

30MPG-- 15.3PPG/7.3RPG/1.3AST/0.9BPG/0.7STL

Increase everything by 20% and see how he matches senior year to 3rd year NBA:

Projecting senior year stats onto full-time nba starter minutes:

36MPG- 18.3PPG/8.7RPG/1.5AST/1BPG/0.84SPG

And reality:

36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

Pretty darn close.

[rcklsscognition]

Moe Harkless vs. Jimmy Butler - I think these players have a tremendous amount in common in terms of playing style, and I'm expecting Harkless to make a big jump this upcoming season just as Butler did.

I'm looking at the advanced stats section, fyi.

Harkless - http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lma01.html

Butler - http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eji01.html

Butler has a better 3 point shooting percentage, but that's where I'm projecting Harkless will have better numbers at this upcoming season.

Butler shot 49%, 35%, and 78% in college and just didn't shoot the 3 in his 1st year. He shot 47%, 38%, 80% in year 2 Otherwise, he's made no improvements really. He just went from playing 8 minutes a game to playing 26. If you project the numbers out to 36 MPG, he's a 12PPG/5RPG/2APG/1SPG guy.

True. But I think that if we were to replace Harkless with Butler, we'd see better shooting numbers from Butler. He's on a pretty stacked team (even last season) and plays within the system. Harkless can do whatever he feels like really.

My opinion of Harkless, is that he's young, putting up okay numbers, and that he'll definitely be better than Ariza. I'm just gonna enjoy watching these guys grow every season and not get too much into the comparisons / number games just yet.

The statistics say that rarely happens. Unless a player completely changes position, his stats and percentages will follow him regardless of role or team. The youth improving this is not really visible in stats. I'm very interested in seeing Oladipo's first year stats to see how he projects and then see if he actually is an outlier because of his work ethic, and can make increases each year.

[NEM]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

He had to play 40+ mpg to get to that clip and his +/- might have been the worst on the team. The reason you give them to Davis is because he is the better player. Your starters are your 5 best players on the team. Moe is 7th right now behind Harris, Vucevic, Davis, Nelson, afflalo, oladipo, Nicholson (tied with harkless)... If you don't want baby starting then trade him, until then he is the starter at 4 and Harris is at 3. Harkless is off the bench. Plain and simple.

[NEM]

As I'm on my projection kick, go back and look at Tobias. Any dumbass could have seen in his first year in the NBA that Harris could score 18PPG/7.5RPG and hardly any assists, steals, or blocks if he started. He shot the same numbers in college as he did in the NBA pretty much.

Yr1- 11.4 MPG- 5PPG/2.4RPG/0.5APG/0.2BPG/0.3SPG
Yr2- 11.6 MPG- 4.9PPG/2RPG/0.5APG/0.3BPG/0.3SPG

Basically multiply all his stats by 3.15

Yr 3- 36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

This is not a fool-proof method by any means, but it does work generally in about 95% of the cases. What it shows is that players do not really improve that much, despite how much we think they do. Usually, they just play more minutes and do the same stuff more often. Occasionally you get a guy that increases his 3% percentage a lot, but generally, things are going to be the same even looking back to college.

Look at Tobias in college:

30MPG-- 15.3PPG/7.3RPG/1.3AST/0.9BPG/0.7STL

Increase everything by 20% and see how he matches senior year to 3rd year NBA:

Projecting senior year stats onto full-time nba starter minutes:

36MPG- 18.3PPG/8.7RPG/1.5AST/1BPG/0.84SPG

And reality:

36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

Pretty darn close.

Thanks for saving me the time and math because I was just about to make that exact post. This should be and1'd by everyone on realgm... IMO

[MellowRose]

As I'm on my projection kick, go back and look at Tobias. Any dumbass could have seen in his first year in the NBA that Harris could score 18PPG/7.5RPG and hardly any assists, steals, or blocks if he started. He shot the same numbers in college as he did in the NBA pretty much.

Yr1- 11.4 MPG- 5PPG/2.4RPG/0.5APG/0.2BPG/0.3SPG
Yr2- 11.6 MPG- 4.9PPG/2RPG/0.5APG/0.3BPG/0.3SPG

Basically multiply all his stats by 3.15

Yr 3- 36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

This is not a fool-proof method by any means, but it does work generally in about 95% of the cases. What it shows is that players do not really improve that much, despite how much we think they do. Usually, they just play more minutes and do the same stuff more often. Occasionally you get a guy that increases his 3% percentage a lot, but generally, things are going to be the same even looking back to college.

Look at Tobias in college:

30MPG-- 15.3PPG/7.3RPG/1.3AST/0.9BPG/0.7STL

Increase everything by 20% and see how he matches senior year to 3rd year NBA:

Projecting senior year stats onto full-time nba starter minutes:

36MPG- 18.3PPG/8.7RPG/1.5AST/1BPG/0.84SPG

And reality:

36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

Pretty darn close.

Probably a stupid question, but how do you know what number to multiply it by? How did you come up with "3.15" and "20%"?

[D12VCMagic]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

He had to play 40+ mpg to get to that clip and his +/- might have been the worst on the team. The reason you give them to Davis is because he is the better player. Your starters are your 5 best players on the team. Moe is 7th right now behind Harris, Vucevic, Davis, Nelson, afflalo, oladipo, Nicholson (tied with harkless)... If you don't want baby starting then trade him, until then he is the starter at 4 and Harris is at 3. Harkless is off the bench. Plain and simple.

Straight up BS. Davis isn't better than half the roster. He's a role player who is inflating his offensive stats by shooting way too much. His defense is also below average but he is a nice rebounder. Also Nicholson being tied with Harkless or better is silly. Sure, his post moves are smooth and skilled but the dude can't defend a soul or rebound at all. Harkless showed major progress in his offensive game and is a skilled defender and rebounder. He brings a way better all around package than Nicholson.

Even for those people who seem to be down on Harkless, I can't imagine why you'd want Glen Davis taking minutes away from anybody on the team. He clearly doesn't fit and has no future here.

[NEM]

In the last February 19th on (final 30 games) , Harkless averaged 13.4 ppg and that includes a game where he got injured after 8 minutes and didn't score. He did that as a 19 year old rookie, so why am I supposed to believe his upside is 12 ppg? I mean, I don't see him as a 20 ppg scorer myself but he can easily be one of those athletic slashing forwards that will score 15-18 ppg and play great defense. But some of you would rather give minutes to freakin Glen Davis? You gotta be kidding me...

He had to play 40+ mpg to get to that clip and his +/- might have been the worst on the team. The reason you give them to Davis is because he is the better player. Your starters are your 5 best players on the team. Moe is 7th right now behind Harris, Vucevic, Davis, Nelson, afflalo, oladipo, Nicholson (tied with harkless)... If you don't want baby starting then trade him, until then he is the starter at 4 and Harris is at 3. Harkless is off the bench. Plain and simple.

Straight up BS. Davis isn't better than half the roster. He's a role player who is inflating his offensive stats by shooting way too much. His defense is also below average but he is a nice rebounder. Also Nicholson being tied with Harkless or better is silly. Sure, his post moves are smooth and skilled but the dude can't defend a soul or rebound at all. Harkless showed major progress in his offensive game and is a skilled defender and rebounder. He brings a way better all around package than Nicholson.

Even for those people who seem to be down on Harkless, I can't imagine why you'd want Glen Davis taking minutes away from anybody on the team. He clearly doesn't fit and has no future here.

Because you play your five best players in the starting lineup... It's no coincidence that we were damn near a .500 team in the beginning of the year with Davis and when moe was playing all those minutes we won all of what, 4 games in the last 2 months?? Davis defense sucks?? Gtfo man, give credit where credit is due... You're all hyped up on moe like he's the second coming of tmac... The dude is gonna be a good role player on a championship team, you can take that to the bank. All of you expecting all star appearances are in for a huge disappointment.

[tiderulz]

Players generally never become significantly better than they were in their 1st NBA season.

where do you get this? Tony Parker was 9 ppg, 4 apg in 30 mpg his first year. I would say he is significantly better. Carlos Boozer, 10 ppg 7 rpg, Noah 6 ppg 5 rpg, Al Horford 10 ppg 9 rpg. need i even mention Dwight Howard? all played significant minutes.

Yes, if you are Lebron or Chris Paul or KG, absolute studs coming into the league you dont become significantly better, but that is like 10% of the league at absolute best.

[NEM]

As I'm on my projection kick, go back and look at Tobias. Any dumbass could have seen in his first year in the NBA that Harris could score 18PPG/7.5RPG and hardly any assists, steals, or blocks if he started. He shot the same numbers in college as he did in the NBA pretty much.

Yr1- 11.4 MPG- 5PPG/2.4RPG/0.5APG/0.2BPG/0.3SPG
Yr2- 11.6 MPG- 4.9PPG/2RPG/0.5APG/0.3BPG/0.3SPG

Basically multiply all his stats by 3.15

Yr 3- 36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

This is not a fool-proof method by any means, but it does work generally in about 95% of the cases. What it shows is that players do not really improve that much, despite how much we think they do. Usually, they just play more minutes and do the same stuff more often. Occasionally you get a guy that increases his 3% percentage a lot, but generally, things are going to be the same even looking back to college.

Look at Tobias in college:

30MPG-- 15.3PPG/7.3RPG/1.3AST/0.9BPG/0.7STL

Increase everything by 20% and see how he matches senior year to 3rd year NBA:

Projecting senior year stats onto full-time nba starter minutes:

36MPG- 18.3PPG/8.7RPG/1.5AST/1BPG/0.84SPG

And reality:

36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

Pretty darn close.

Probably a stupid question, but how do you know what number to multiply it by? How did you come up with "3.15" and "20%"?

I'm gonna guess he divided the minutes and got those numbers. When projecting stats, minutes are the common denominator and its honestly the best way to project numbers. Pick any player in the league and look up their per36 numbers and you will get values very close to one another from the first year to the last. It is very rare that a players per36 numbers change much because players games don't change much. The things that might change are percentages but even those dont change enough to make a difference in per36

[fendilim]

Players generally never become significantly better than they were in their 1st NBA season. With Harkless, we actually have a lot of stats of him playing big minutes. He projects to be a 12PPG, 6RPG, 2 AST, 1.5STL, 1 BLK player. If he makes a leap on his 3pt % like a Deng, he could be a 14-15PPG. At best you're getting Igoudala, maybe Ariza.

If he doesn't show sustained improvement in his shooting percentages next season, I'd trade him, despite him being my favorite Magician behind Jameer. Odds are he never gets over 12PPG, but if he's going to break out, we'll see it in his percentages in the first few months.

And before anyone gets Paul George reference in, he bumped his 3point percentage up 2nd year and everything else pretty much went up in proportion to minutes played.

Iguodala? You've got to be kidding me. Iggy has already shown flashes in playmaking skills in his rookie year, Harkless doesn't. And Harkless is a spot up shooter. I'm hoping Moe develops like Iggy, but based on Moe games last year, Ariza a more likely comparison.

[rcklsscognition]

Probably a stupid question, but how do you know what number to multiply it by? How did you come up with "3.15" and "20%"?

Just calculate the % increase from their minutes per game to 36MPG, then apply that increase to all their stats.

[G-Heel]

Again. If Glen Davis is on this roster and healthy, which was the question posed, he will be in the lineup, AND starting.

Harkless has the most "upside". Again were using things that don't have actual value or proof to give reasons to why we should be starting players for no other reason then them actually proving they are worthy of that status.

Harkless "upside" was said to be "best case" Trevor Ariza and "worse case Devin EBanks" and what he produced was EXACTLY that, right in the middle of both. If you want "Proof" of that get back at me and ill prove it to you.

He's already close to Ariza's level and it's only his rookie season. You're seriously underrating him in all your posts. In time, he'll prove to be very important because of his ability to play defense.

All in all, I'm not very high on anyone we have except Dipo. But Harkless can certainly be a very valuable member of a contending team.

Let me get this straight, you're only high on dipo and moe but not Harris or vooch??? So you're higher on two guys who have proven nothing than on two guys who have proven to be either scorers (harris), rebounders (vooch), or both (harris)... All at the same age as the two you're "high" on...

Harkless is not yet at arizas level... He is barely above ebanks, check the numbers. I also remember this board touting ariza as the next tmac and almost committing mass homicide when we traded him. Ariza was doing the same things moe is doing now when he was here and he is actually a better defender and ball handler.

Y'all are going to be disappointed in moe because you're putting unfair expectations on him, while neon1 and I will be just fine with his 12 and 6 in 34 minutes in his prime at a decent price (20 million/4 years)

What can I say, I like defensive players. Those are the ones that don't get abused in the playoffs. Vuc can't play a lick of defense and I'm not high on him until he improves that. Centers that can't play good defense are big liabilities because of their job to protect the paint.

As for Harris, I don't like him at the 4, and I haven't seen him play the three much to judge if he can play the 3 consistently.

I feel players like Harkless will improves, while Vuc and Harris aren't going to improve much at all.

[rcklsscognition]

As I'm on my projection kick, go back and look at Tobias. Any dumbass could have seen in his first year in the NBA that Harris could score 18PPG/7.5RPG and hardly any assists, steals, or blocks if he started. He shot the same numbers in college as he did in the NBA pretty much.

Yr1- 11.4 MPG- 5PPG/2.4RPG/0.5APG/0.2BPG/0.3SPG
Yr2- 11.6 MPG- 4.9PPG/2RPG/0.5APG/0.3BPG/0.3SPG

Basically multiply all his stats by 3.15

Yr 3- 36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

This is not a fool-proof method by any means, but it does work generally in about 95% of the cases. What it shows is that players do not really improve that much, despite how much we think they do. Usually, they just play more minutes and do the same stuff more often. Occasionally you get a guy that increases his 3% percentage a lot, but generally, things are going to be the same even looking back to college.

Look at Tobias in college:

30MPG-- 15.3PPG/7.3RPG/1.3AST/0.9BPG/0.7STL

Increase everything by 20% and see how he matches senior year to 3rd year NBA:

Projecting senior year stats onto full-time nba starter minutes:

36MPG- 18.3PPG/8.7RPG/1.5AST/1BPG/0.84SPG

And reality:

36.1MPG- 17.3PPG/8.5RPG/2.1APG/1.4BPG/0.9SPG

Pretty darn close.

Probably a stupid question, but how do you know what number to multiply it by? How did you come up with "3.15" and "20%"?

I'm gonna guess he divided the minutes and got those numbers. When projecting stats, minutes are the common denominator and its honestly the best way to project numbers. Pick any player in the league and look up their per36 numbers and you will get values very close to one another from the first year to the last. It is very rare that a players per36 numbers change much because players games don't change much. The things that might change are percentages but even those dont change enough to make a difference in per36

Haha, I guess it'd be easier to look up per36 instead of doing it longhand like me.