drsd wrote:Bored at work, so ....
#16:
2024 - Jared McCain - home run pick. Could be a future starter
2023 - Kobe Bufkin - 3rd stringer that could develop to a rotational player
2022 - AJ Griffin - not an NBA-level talent
2021 - Alperen Şengün - multi-year all-star talent
2020 - Isaiah Stewart - solid bench player
2019 - Chuma Okeke - why?
2018 - Zhaire Smith - already out of league
2017 - Justin Patton - already out of league
2016 - Guerschon Yabusele - amazing return to league; solid bench player
2015 - Terry Rozier - end of wonderful career as a starer
2014 - Jusuf Nurkić - end of wonderful career as a starer
#25
2024 - Pacôme Dadiet - not an NBA-level talent
2023 - Marcus Sasser - 3rd stringer that could develop to a rotational player
2022 - Blake Wesley - 3rd stringer that could be a deep bench player for several more years
2021 - Quentin Grimes - solid 6th man / marginal starter
2020 - Immanuel Quickley - solid 6th man / marginal starter
2019 - Nassir Little - not an NBA-level talent
2018 - Moritz Wagner - Orlando's OG
2017 - Anžejs Pasečņiks - already out of league
2016 - Brice Johnson - already out of league
2015 - Jarell Martin - already out of league
2014 - end of wonderful career as a marginal starer
In conclusion: Orlando needs to trade away one or both of these picks!
p.s. Orlando also has the #46 and #57 selections in this draft.
..
I think they need a trade this offseason, but general thoughts...
If you hit on a pick you have that player for 4 inexpensive years and then 1st dibs at extending them or matching any offer. So if the pick is even a 33% success rate, the fact that you get that player for potentially 8 years has to be worth something extra. Trading picks like this will net us likely someone on a short term deal where we will have to soon pay them a raise. We are not able to add a whole lot of salary going forward.
Not even to mention trading these kind of picks won't net us a great player, and the fact is that all players are subject to performance variance, not just young ones. There are no sure bets that aren't stars. For instance, you have Rozier on the list as a hit, the Heat traded a 1st for him as a vet and he then flopped. Caldwell-Pope flopped for us this year, Paul George for the Sixers etc.
This kind of analysis just says nothing IMO. We know most fail, but at the same time if you trade them all your team will fall apart quicker than it should unless you are the Lakers and get bailed out by a Luka trade for nothing I guess.
So yes, in order to get guard help we likely will have to move pick(s) or future pick(s), but we also will need future help from some draft picks or we will not be able to afford our roster. I am 100% on board with a trade because I think the offense is so inept that they have to get our guys help, so I agree with you, but I disagree with the reasoning.
There also is the xfactor of having a lot of your picks on hand and prospects worth something to go all in and deal for a really good player if the time comes.
