The Tobias Harris Situation

[Bensational]

We've already had 1 million threads on this topic, but they were all buried down and I couldn't be bothered digging them out.

But, what are the thoughts on how we play this out? What does Harris mean to us? What are our options?

What does Harris mean to us?

Interestingly, the difference between our W's and L's to date suggest that Harris is our biggest difference maker. He scores 20ppg in our W's, and 16.6 in our losses. Vuc is next, scoring 20 in W's and 18 in L's. There isn't a big difference in FG% or FGAs between either of them, either. However, most of those wins predate our newer, faster paced offense.

Tobias is a top 5 scorer amongst SFs, and he's ranked 28th overall. For players scoring over 15ppg, he's ranked 25th for FG%.

He's an elite rebounder for his position, ranking 2nd amongst SFs.

How is he fitting in with the new fast pace? This can't be gauged until the end of the season, as this team is horribly inconsistent and lineups always change. I mean, right now he's playing 6th man.

But what does he bring to an offense? He's highly efficient with his mid-range jumper, he's good at posting up, but he doesn't seem to do it often enough, and he moves well off the ball for backdoor cuts. But, he is assisted on 61% of his offense. That's not a bad thing, however, that's our top 2 scoring options (Vuc and Tobias) who require assistance to get buckets. Dipo, on the other hand, is assisted only 35% of the time. Looking at other NBA offenses, generally 1 of the team's top 2 scorers is an off the dribble player. Westbrook, Irving/LeBron, Lillard, Curry, Rose, Parker, Conley, Harden, etc.

So, with such a fluid and developing offense, what is Harris' place? Does he remain a 6th man simply because he's a ballstopper? Does he rejoin the starters and accept a backseat to a Vuc/Dipo primary offense? Does he stay at SF, or do we move him to PF? Right now, I feel like Aaron Gordon and Marble are better suited to play with our starters. Both have better handles and are better at taking their guy off the dribble, but both are also much more inclined to pass and keep moving the ball. Also, both are better at being disruptive defenders who can get out on the break.



What are our options?

I'm seeing 4 options:

- re-sign him (keep him)
- re-sign him (trade him later)
- let him walk
- trade him before all star break

If we re-sign him, it's gonna cost us somewhere close to a max deal. If he's a 6th man, do we spend that kind of money on someone off the bench? IMO, i think we re-sign him simply because Henny won't want to give up an asset for free. But re-signing Tobias won't mean he's a lock to be in the longterm picture.

More importantly, what do we re-sign him as? SF or PF? I would like to see an A.Gordon/Harris front court, where Gordon takes the opposing team's best player. That means Tobias will have to play some PF and some SF on defense. Offensively, i think both Tobias and A.Gordon have good enough perimeter games that they'd continue to serve the same function as Frye has been doing so far this season.

But is Tobias our best front court option? Is developing Gordon as a PF best for him? Will it limit his versatility by getting him to bulk up to bang with the big boys? Would it hurt Tobias' ability to develop him as a PF? Would the money we spend on Tobias be better spent on Paul Millsap, or LMA, or another PF of that caliber, whilst leaving Gordon to develop into our SF of the future?

I don't think we let him walk, and I think it's too early to discuss trading him, considering how far this team seems from having a solid identity. i think the most glaring problem for the team is its lack of a PF who can help stop easy buckets inside (a rim protector), and with our options behind Tobias, he is beginning to feel like a bit of a luxury more than a necessity.

What does Tobias mean to the team in your eyes?

[FoxToddley]

Honestly. I've always viewed TH as a SF who can do a lot of little things well but none of them great. Signing that kind of player to a max deal doesn't help anyone out in the long term. I would rather pay 2 guys who do one thing great then 1 who does things good to fair.

[ChiefWiggumz]

Good post dude.

I think this is one of the most crucial decisions we will have to make, regarding our roster, in awhile.

I've analyzed it and have come to a lot of the same conclusions as you.

I also think our biggest need is a rim protecting PF, but I don't think we get that in a trade.

The most likely outcome is re-signing him and trading him. But that almost definitely means we take in at least 1 bad contract in return.

I think a good move would be to make a trade before the deadline and attempt to stay young, athletic, and fill a need.

Of course the other team would need confirmation with Tobias that he would re-sign with them, given a lucrative contract is involved.

There are a few teams with young, talented players who haven't really had a fair shake at playing time and could be useful.

Say he really did want to go to the Knicks, and they were interested in a trade, I think some good things could happen.

I wonder if they would accept an offer for Tim Hardaway JR, and Cleanthony Early.

A lot of Magic fans will say that is a bad deal I feel. But, actually I think that is a fantastic deal. Maybe even too good for us.

We would receive good contracts in return and keep cap flexibility.

Hardaway JR would eliminate the need to retain Ben Gordon and provide scoring off the bench.

Early could possibly fill in the role we've all wished Harkless would. He is a very athletic SF, with a long wing span, and defensive potential.

A 2nd string rotation of Fournier, Hardaway JR, Early, Frye, and KOQ could score a decent amount of points.

[Orlwillbeback]

Let him walk if he demands any more than 10 mil, he is simply not worth anymore. Does a rebuilding team really need to commit a two 8 figure deals to two players? We'll be rebuilding forever at this rate.

[ezzzp]

These quotes are in reference to why the Spurs didn't extend Kawhi and to the Phoenix - Bledsoe negotiations.

Some of this type of strategy could be what Hennigan will try to do in the offseason to create the type of condition that could lead to more favorable contract (and why he didn't negotiate against himself in extension talks).

everyone knows the Spurs would simply match the offer, so why tie up $15 million a year in cash when teams know they aren’t going to get the player? (Once Leonard signs the offer sheet that team can’t spend that money until the Spurs match, a process that can take up to three days. That’s an eternity in the height of the free agent frenzy of July.) This is the situation that kept Eric Bledsoe without an offer from another team for much of the summer (although there is more of a demand for good small forwards as opposed to point guards). Bottom line, there is zero chance the Spurs let Leonard go, the only question is how much they pay him.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... ith-spurs/

The deal ends a months-long stalemate in which Bledsoe and his agent Rich Paul sought a maximum contract while the Suns used the player's status as a restricted free agent as leverage to wait for favorable terms. Perhaps we can thank the Minnesota Timberwolves' sudden interest in Bledsoe for pushing both sides to sit down and reach a deal...

...Bledsoe got an extra year and more money overall (though about $2 million less per season) than his most likely max-contract figure without any serious competing offers. That's not a bad take for a player who missed 39 games to injury in his first season as a starter. However, the Suns didn't exactly overpay, because $14 million per year seems like the market rate for someone of Bledsoe's talent, production, and potential.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/eric-bledsoe-finally-re-ups-with-the-phoenix-suns--but-questions-about-future-remain-234239673.html

[MellowRose]

Good post dude.

I think this is one of the most crucial decisions we will have to make, regarding our roster, in awhile.

I've analyzed it and have come to a lot of the same conclusions as you.

I also think our biggest need is a rim protecting PF, but I don't think we get that in a trade.

The most likely outcome is re-signing him and trading him. But that almost definitely means we take in at least 1 bad contract in return.

I think a good move would be to make a trade before the deadline and attempt to stay young, athletic, and fill a need.

Of course the other team would need confirmation with Tobias that he would re-sign with them, given a lucrative contract is involved.

There are a few teams with young, talented players who haven't really had a fair shake at playing time and could be useful.

Say he really did want to go to the Knicks, and they were interested in a trade, I think some good things could happen.

I wonder if they would accept an offer for Tim Hardaway JR, and Cleanthony Early.

A lot of Magic fans will say that is a bad deal I feel. But, actually I think that is a fantastic deal. Maybe even too good for us.

We would receive good contracts in return and keep cap flexibility.

Hardaway JR would eliminate the need to retain Ben Gordon and provide scoring off the bench.

Early could possibly fill in the role we've all wished Harkless would. He is a very athletic SF, with a long wing span, and defensive potential.

A 2nd string rotation of Fournier, Hardaway JR, Early, Frye, and KOQ could score a decent amount of points.

Oh. man. Tobias fanboys are about to go psycho on you.

Tobias Harris for "no defense" Hardaway and some bum? Shiiiieeet

[BadWolf]

Early and Hardaway? First Marble , now this? Marble takes his man of the dribble?
I think the relationship between Tobias and JV is bad right now. If JV stays, then Tobias is gone, ie demands a trade or s&t.
Ideally he'd play as a starter next to Aaron, they fit well together and can cover each other's weaknesses.

[thelead]

Good post dude.

I think this is one of the most crucial decisions we will have to make, regarding our roster, in awhile.

I've analyzed it and have come to a lot of the same conclusions as you.

I also think our biggest need is a rim protecting PF, but I don't think we get that in a trade.

The most likely outcome is re-signing him and trading him. But that almost definitely means we take in at least 1 bad contract in return.

I think a good move would be to make a trade before the deadline and attempt to stay young, athletic, and fill a need.

Of course the other team would need confirmation with Tobias that he would re-sign with them, given a lucrative contract is involved.

There are a few teams with young, talented players who haven't really had a fair shake at playing time and could be useful.

Say he really did want to go to the Knicks, and they were interested in a trade, I think some good things could happen.

I wonder if they would accept an offer for Tim Hardaway JR, and Cleanthony Early.

A lot of Magic fans will say that is a bad deal I feel. But, actually I think that is a fantastic deal. Maybe even too good for us.

We would receive good contracts in return and keep cap flexibility.

Hardaway JR would eliminate the need to retain Ben Gordon and provide scoring off the bench.

Early could possibly fill in the role we've all wished Harkless would. He is a very athletic SF, with a long wing span, and defensive potential.

A 2nd string rotation of Fournier, Hardaway JR, Early, Frye, and KOQ could score a decent amount of points.

Tobias for THJ?

You, sir, do not know basketball.

[Edual]

depends on how the coach uses him on crunch time, if VO is going to be our game closer then tobias value is much less, if he is a big part of magic closing games and efficient enough, max him out if thats what it takes

hes not worth the max just for his PPG

[Orlwillbeback]

Good post dude.

I think this is one of the most crucial decisions we will have to make, regarding our roster, in awhile.

I've analyzed it and have come to a lot of the same conclusions as you.

I also think our biggest need is a rim protecting PF, but I don't think we get that in a trade.

The most likely outcome is re-signing him and trading him. But that almost definitely means we take in at least 1 bad contract in return.

I think a good move would be to make a trade before the deadline and attempt to stay young, athletic, and fill a need.

Of course the other team would need confirmation with Tobias that he would re-sign with them, given a lucrative contract is involved.

There are a few teams with young, talented players who haven't really had a fair shake at playing time and could be useful.

Say he really did want to go to the Knicks, and they were interested in a trade, I think some good things could happen.

I wonder if they would accept an offer for Tim Hardaway JR, and Cleanthony Early.

A lot of Magic fans will say that is a bad deal I feel. But, actually I think that is a fantastic deal. Maybe even too good for us.

We would receive good contracts in return and keep cap flexibility.

Hardaway JR would eliminate the need to retain Ben Gordon and provide scoring off the bench.

Early could possibly fill in the role we've all wished Harkless would. He is a very athletic SF, with a long wing span, and defensive potential.

A 2nd string rotation of Fournier, Hardaway JR, Early, Frye, and KOQ could score a decent amount of points.

Hardaway hasnt progressed from last season. I pass.

[tiderulz]

Early and Hardaway? First Marble , now this? Marble takes his man of the dribble?
I think the relationship between Tobias and JV is bad right now. If JV stays, then Tobias is gone, ie demands a trade or s&t.
Ideally he'd play as a starter next to Aaron, they fit well together and can cover each other's weaknesses.

this is how i see it. There is something going on between Harris and JV. JV doesnt want to start him, and Harris at least publicly has been the good soldier so far (last year and now). But there is some beef. Dipo comes back from injury and is put immediately in the starting lineup, but Harris comes back and JV wants him off the bench. While i am a Harris "defender", i do want whatever is best for the team. Hennigan doesnt need to share his plans with us, i just hope he does have a plan for all this.

And the team does need a help defense PF and shot blocker, but then about 28 teams need that too so I dont know what we do there.

[ChiefWiggumz]

Good post dude.

I think this is one of the most crucial decisions we will have to make, regarding our roster, in awhile.

I've analyzed it and have come to a lot of the same conclusions as you.

I also think our biggest need is a rim protecting PF, but I don't think we get that in a trade.

The most likely outcome is re-signing him and trading him. But that almost definitely means we take in at least 1 bad contract in return.

I think a good move would be to make a trade before the deadline and attempt to stay young, athletic, and fill a need.

Of course the other team would need confirmation with Tobias that he would re-sign with them, given a lucrative contract is involved.

There are a few teams with young, talented players who haven't really had a fair shake at playing time and could be useful.

Say he really did want to go to the Knicks, and they were interested in a trade, I think some good things could happen.

I wonder if they would accept an offer for Tim Hardaway JR, and Cleanthony Early.

A lot of Magic fans will say that is a bad deal I feel. But, actually I think that is a fantastic deal. Maybe even too good for us.

We would receive good contracts in return and keep cap flexibility.

Hardaway JR would eliminate the need to retain Ben Gordon and provide scoring off the bench.

Early could possibly fill in the role we've all wished Harkless would. He is a very athletic SF, with a long wing span, and defensive potential.

A 2nd string rotation of Fournier, Hardaway JR, Early, Frye, and KOQ could score a decent amount of points.

Tobias for THJ?

You, sir, do not know basketball.

I am not saying that is the best case scenario or even an option I prefer.

Was just spouting off crap, like everyone does on here. Mentioned the Knicks because of the rumors.

It was all hypothetical, in the scenario that we trade Tobias at the all-star break. We'd have to keep the salaries low, and receive potential in return.

Everyone lets their fandom skew their perception of a trade. Tobias rejected our, what I thought was a spot-on fair offer.

I think he is a fantastic player. However, I don't think he is a max contract guy.

We have to get something in return for him.

Make propositions that I can be a dick to you about.

[MagicStarwipe]

It's a hard one for me. I like him as a person and as a player, but I don't know if he's a fit or a needed piece for this team going forward. The money he will likely get will be justified for his current role, but I don't see him being quite good enough in that role to justify paying him with uber talented guys like Aaron Gordon behind him who I believe is a max contract calibre player. I'll be bummed if he goes, but I don't think he's the type of talent that will set this franchise back years if we were to lose him. I'm back and forth on it. I'm good on whatever Rob decides is best.

[tiderulz]

Everyone lets their fandom skew their perception of a trade. Tobias rejected our, what I thought was a spot-on fair offer.

I think he is a fantastic player. However, I don't think he is a max contract guy.

We have to get something in return for him.

Make propositions that I can be a dick to you about.

I can agree Harris isnt a max player, but he is better than the Magic offer of $8mil/year. that was not a spot-on fair offer imo

[tiderulz]

with uber talented guys like Aaron Gordon behind him who I believe is a max contract calibre player.

what have you seen that shows this?

[ChiefWiggumz]

I think our best bet is to trade him for players that have potential, maintain our draft position this season, and maintain our cap flexibility.

The fact is with or without Tobias, we do not necessarily have an identity. And that says something right there.

In my opinion, if we are going to max out a player he has to have a tremendous impact on the game. So much so, that the team is completely different when he is on the floor and leads to success.

We had maybe our best two wins of the season against Chicago and Houston without Tobias.

[tiderulz]

I think our best bet is to trade him for players that have potential, maintain our draft position this season, and maintain our cap flexibility.

The fact is with or without Tobias, we do not necessarily have an identity. And that says something right there.

In my opinion, if we are going to max out a player he has to have a tremendous impact on the game. So much so, that the team is completely different when he is on the floor and leads to success.

We had maybe our best two wins of the season against Chicago and Houston without Tobias.

you have to be a little fair with that. Those 2 wins were also at a high pace, which we havent done the past 2 games with Harris back. he may play very well in it, he may not, we just dont know yet

[thelead]

Good post dude.

I think this is one of the most crucial decisions we will have to make, regarding our roster, in awhile.

I've analyzed it and have come to a lot of the same conclusions as you.

I also think our biggest need is a rim protecting PF, but I don't think we get that in a trade.

The most likely outcome is re-signing him and trading him. But that almost definitely means we take in at least 1 bad contract in return.

I think a good move would be to make a trade before the deadline and attempt to stay young, athletic, and fill a need.

Of course the other team would need confirmation with Tobias that he would re-sign with them, given a lucrative contract is involved.

There are a few teams with young, talented players who haven't really had a fair shake at playing time and could be useful.

Say he really did want to go to the Knicks, and they were interested in a trade, I think some good things could happen.

I wonder if they would accept an offer for Tim Hardaway JR, and Cleanthony Early.

A lot of Magic fans will say that is a bad deal I feel. But, actually I think that is a fantastic deal. Maybe even too good for us.

We would receive good contracts in return and keep cap flexibility.

Hardaway JR would eliminate the need to retain Ben Gordon and provide scoring off the bench.

Early could possibly fill in the role we've all wished Harkless would. He is a very athletic SF, with a long wing span, and defensive potential.

A 2nd string rotation of Fournier, Hardaway JR, Early, Frye, and KOQ could score a decent amount of points.

Tobias for THJ?

You, sir, do not know basketball.

I am not saying that is the best case scenario or even an option I prefer.

Was just spouting off crap, like everyone does on here. Mentioned the Knicks because of the rumors.

It was all hypothetical, in the scenario that we trade Tobias at the all-star break. We'd have to keep the salaries low, and receive potential in return.

Everyone lets their fandom skew their perception of a trade. Tobias rejected our, what I thought was a spot-on fair offer.

I think he is a fantastic player. However, I don't think he is a max contract guy.

We have to get something in return for him.

Make propositions that I can be a dick to you about.

Didn't mean to be a dick but I know it came off that way.... sorry. It was just a horrible trade idea.

[ChiefWiggumz]

Everyone lets their fandom skew their perception of a trade. Tobias rejected our, what I thought was a spot-on fair offer.

I think he is a fantastic player. However, I don't think he is a max contract guy.

We have to get something in return for him.

Make propositions that I can be a dick to you about.

I can agree Harris isnt a max player, but he is better than the Magic offer of $8mil/year. that was not a spot-on fair offer imo

No, you are right on that. I take back that statement about a spot on fair offer.

I thought it was around 10/yr, but I just looked it up and it was 4/36.

That is about what Deng makes a year. A tried and true, albeit aging, SF. I get that with the caps rising, contracts will follow suite.

However, I think if he does not accept a contract around 11/yr. It's not worth it to overpay him.

That could be a dicey situation. Rostering a player that you don't really want, and who doesn't really want to be there, paying him too much money, and looking to trade him.

The ball is not in your court at that point. I like Tobes and always have. I just don't want to end up in a difficult situation.

[MagicStarwipe]

with uber talented guys like Aaron Gordon behind him who I believe is a max contract calibre player.

what have you seen that shows this?

That's my projection for him. His combination of size, athleticism, basketball skills, IQ and motor are special. He's always doing things on the floor and making plays that you look on the floor and realise no other player on either team could make that play or make it so effortlessly. Whether it's recovering to block a 3 pointer, catching the ball in traffic in transition, spinning and finishing at the rim. He makes special plays.