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Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 8:38 am
by drsd
Dear Magic fans:
We are all happy with the 500 record. But how does it stack up, and were did the Magic fall apart over the last three seasons?
It looks like "youth" set in at about game 20. Indeed it is the games #20 - #40 where the total melt down occurred.
So we should be happy, but be cautious in our enthusiasm.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:37 pm
by OrlDave
Gee, great. Thanks for that. Just what this board needed....
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:15 pm
by UCFJayBird
drsd wrote:Dear Magic fans:
We are all happy with the 500 record. But how does it stack up, and were did the Magic fall apart over the last three seasons?
It looks like "youth" set in at about game 20. Indeed it is the games #20 - #40 where the total melt down occurred.
So we should be happy, but be cautious in our enthusiasm.
Can you shorten your chart to say the first 20 games so we can see the data more clearly?
It appears that by game 12 (where we are now), past lineups have been more or less in the -4 to -6 range, which implies a 4-8 or 3-9 record. But kinda tough to see it at this point.
I would also wonder about SOS for these past seasons. How was the point differential in those games? Were they as closely fought as the games this season? Or were there more blowouts? Were there any key players held out due to injuries (including vs opponents)?
Things are not equal between seasons and there are too many variables to rely on "good starts in past seasons" being an indication of where this season may go. IMO, we've seen this team face a tough schedule to start the season, and they've been in it at the end of just about every game and are 6-6 (and having dealt with injuries to key players). That to me is reason for optimism/enthusiasm.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:18 pm
by OrlandO
I think accountability will keep us afloat. We didn't have that in previous years.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:35 pm
by drsd
UCFJayBird wrote:Can you shorten your chart to say the first 20 games so we can see the data more clearly?
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:14 pm
by Orlwillbeback
This thread makes a good point but looking at these stats and charts always ignores alot of other key factors that have since changed for the better.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:23 pm
by EAS Law
This is a very interesting look at the past few seasons. I appreciate the effort of putting this together. I actually had no clue about these trends. The close-up already shows that the trajectory of this season is in stark contrast with seasons past. We would have already been on a downward, albeit gradual slope in the past, whereas, we're on the up WITH injuries to key guys (Vic, JSmith, Vooch) as well as kind of keeping some promising talent (AG, Mario) in the stable. I think we have a lot to be excited about.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:32 pm
by ezzzp
Maybe its just me, but what my eyeballs are seeing on the court compared to prior seasons is much much different. The competitiveness and organization on the floor is visible.
Also, the foundational defensive improvements make the record feel sustainable, the opposite of early season flukes.
OFF RTng:
(12-13) 98.9
(13-14) 99.3
(14-15) 99.6
(15-16) 98.1
DEF RTng:
(12-13) 106.7
(13-14) 104.8
(14-15) 105.2
(15-16) 99.1
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:22 pm
by craig01
I too see that things are somewhat different than the previous three years.
Depth has improved.
The core is getting another year together under their belt.
The focus on defense will help prevent long meltdowns.
Accountability to players with performance versus playing time
And, of course, the new head ball coach.
I still don't expect a miracle turnaround this year, but I do expect a competetive season on a consistent basis.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:23 pm
by Nyce_1
next 12 games, we can go 9-3. Optimistic? Yes; but very doable.
Sat, Nov 21 vs Kings
Mon, Nov 23 @ Cavaliers
Wed, Nov 25 vs Knicks
Fri, Nov 27 vs Bucks
Sun, Nov 29 vs Celtics
Tue, Dec 1 @ Timberwolves
Thu, Dec 3 @ Jazz
Sat, Dec 5 @ Clippers
Tue, Dec 8 @ Nuggets
Wed, Dec 9 @ Suns
Fri, Dec 11 vs Cavaliers
Mon, Dec 14 @ Nets
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:06 pm
by OrlDave
Nyce_1 wrote:next 12 games, we can go 9-3. Optimistic? Yes; but very doable.
Sat, Nov 21 vs Kings
Mon, Nov 23 @ Cavaliers
Wed, Nov 25 vs Knicks
Fri, Nov 27 vs Bucks
Sun, Nov 29 vs Celtics
Tue, Dec 1 @ Timberwolves
Thu, Dec 3 @ Jazz
Sat, Dec 5 @ Clippers
Tue, Dec 8 @ Nuggets
Wed, Dec 9 @ Suns
Fri, Dec 11 vs Cavaliers
Mon, Dec 14 @ Nets
Given the parity this year I think our record could be anywhere from 10-2 to 2-10. Seriously. Nets and Kings are likely wins, but every other team is either just below .500 or just above .500 except Cleveland. There seem to be no nights off anymore. All games are dog fights. That said I think we go 8-4 barring major injuries, which is admittedly optimistic.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:18 pm
by Optimus_Steel
I am really happy with 6-6 so far. That's slightly better than what I expected.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 10:21 am
by damo[23]
drsd, spoiler of fun, pooper of parties.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:10 am
by drsd
damo[23] wrote:drsd, spoiler of fun, pooper of parties.
Sorry.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 2:05 pm
by UCFJayBird
How about an update?
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 2:19 pm
by tooler
Nyce_1 wrote:next 12 games, we can go 9-3. Optimistic? Yes; but very doable.
Sat, Nov 21 vs Kings
Mon, Nov 23 @ Cavaliers
Wed, Nov 25 vs Knicks
Fri, Nov 27 vs Bucks
Sun, Nov 29 vs Celtics
Tue, Dec 1 @ Timberwolves
Thu, Dec 3 @ Jazz
Sat, Dec 5 @ Clippers
Tue, Dec 8 @ Nuggets
Wed, Dec 9 @ Suns
Fri, Dec 11 vs Cavaliers
Mon, Dec 14 @ Nets
Had it within reach! 7-5 instead, plus a new starting lineup. I'll take it.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:37 pm
by Nyce_1
tooler wrote:Nyce_1 wrote:next 12 games, we can go 9-3. Optimistic? Yes; but very doable.
Sat, Nov 21 vs Kings
Mon, Nov 23 @ Cavaliers
Wed, Nov 25 vs Knicks
Fri, Nov 27 vs Bucks
Sun, Nov 29 vs Celtics
Tue, Dec 1 @ Timberwolves
Thu, Dec 3 @ Jazz
Sat, Dec 5 @ Clippers
Tue, Dec 8 @ Nuggets
Wed, Dec 9 @ Suns
Fri, Dec 11 vs Cavaliers
Mon, Dec 14 @ Nets
Had it within reach! 7-5 instead, plus a new starting lineup. I'll take it.
damn. super close. should've been a W vs. Clippers would've beat the Kings with lineup change.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:55 pm
by OrlDave
OrlDave wrote:Given the parity this year I think our record could be anywhere from 10-2 to 2-10. Seriously. Nets and Kings are likely wins, but every other team is either just below .500 or just above .500 except Cleveland. There seem to be no nights off anymore. All games are dog fights. That said I think we go 8-4 barring major injuries, which is admittedly optimistic.
Hey 7-5 is close enough. Especially considering that LAC collapse.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:40 am
by SaberT
drsd wrote:Dear Magic fans:
We are all happy with the 500 record. But how does it stack up, and were did the Magic fall apart over the last three seasons?
It looks like "youth" set in at about game 20. Indeed it is the games #20 - #40 where the total melt down occurred.
So we should be happy, but be cautious in our enthusiasm.
Could you update the chart with new win/loss data. I think it would be interesting to see how it matches. Your prediction about games #20 to #40 being where the meltdown occurs are almost completely accurate, meltdown started at around #31-32.
Re: Win - Loss tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2016 8:08 pm
by drsd
Well it is not a meltdown. But does not look good.
