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Since we're entering the home stretch, I thought I'd start a place for us to keep tabs on the home sprint.

I've got a confidence poll at the top. I'll reset it every 5 games to get a new confidence rating.

As of the 25th of February, we're 4 games behind the current 8th seed Charlotte Hornets.



Between us and them are Detroit (29-29) and Washington (26-30)

Here is our upcoming schedule, too.



If someone can be bothered writing down the final schedules for Charlotte, Detroit and Washington we can compare the difficulty of each schedule and likelihood of each team making the playoffs.

I think we finish exactly at .500 and squeak in.

Gotta get 43 wins for 7th seed. I'm not interested in a sweep vs Cavs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Is the link to the simulator for the rest of the season, with odds, projected rankings, and spreads for each remaining game.

We are sitting at a 5% chance for the playoffs, down a few points, and projected record of 36-46 good for somewhere between 7th and 11th best lottery odds. Lot of teams stuck right near us.

Very unlikely. I'd prefer to get a solid lottery pick and develop AG and Hezonja at this point.

Thats a schedule with a good amount of winnable games actually. The balls definetly in the air

I say we win 22 more games and finish with 47-35. That's if we get locked in and play to our fullest potential. I only see 3 schedule losses vs warriors cavs and raptors. The other teams we should have a legit shot at beating. Goooo Magic!!!

Yall may laugh but I hope hezonja studies currys game like crazy because he has that 3 point potential. The effortless release. Plus hes taller and has a head start om development. I know the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 but Im an orlando magic fan.

Tmac was the next Jordan
Dwight Howard was the next shaq
Oladipo was dwayne wade

Skys truly the limit with this squad and the futures bright. I got that vision yo

I think the Hawks might end up falling off as they have a very difficult schedule remaining, they might not get to 40 wins

We need to go 16-10 to hit .500

But right now a .500 record wouldn't get you into the playoffs, so it's best to aim for better. Let's say 18-8 to put us at 42-40 at the end of the season?

Looking at the schedule, here's my rough breakdown...

Green = Expected Win (worth 3 'confidence points')
Blue = 50/50, but I'm inclined to think we will Win (worth 2 'confidence points')
Orange = 50/50, but I'm inclined to think we will Lose (worth 1 'confidence point')
Red = Expected Loss (worth 0 'confidence points')

NYK
PHI
DAL
CHI (b2b)
PHO
GSW
LAL (b2b)
SAC
POR (b2b)
DEN
CHA (b2b)
CLE
TOR
BOS (b2b)
DET
MIA
CHI (b2b)
BRK
IND
MIL (b2b)
MEM
DET
MIA
MIA
MIL
CHA (Wildcard game. The entire season and playoff race could come down to this very game)

TOTALS
3 Wins
8 Possible Wins
12 Possible Losses
2 Losses
1 Wildcard

Out of the 75 'confidence points' available, I give them 37, which would put them just under 50% likelihood, not including the Charlotte Wildcard Game. But it would just take a few surprise wins against the likes of Chicago, Indiana, Miami, Toronto and Boston (whom we've all beat before) to put us even closer.

I think we'll end up somewhere between 34-37 wins total. I'm predicting a 36-46 final record.

I would love to see this team finish strong and sneak into the playoffs, but it's going to be a huge task.

Bensational wrote:We need to go 16-10 to hit .500

But right now a .500 record wouldn't get you into the playoffs, so it's best to aim for better. Let's say 18-8 to put us at 42-40 at the end of the season?

Looking at the schedule, here's my rough breakdown...

Green = Expected Win (worth 3 'confidence points')
Blue = 50/50, but I'm inclined to think we will Win (worth 2 'confidence points')
Orange = 50/50, but I'm inclined to think we will Lose (worth 1 'confidence point')
Red = Expected Loss (worth 0 'confidence points')

NYK
PHI
DAL
CHI (b2b)
PHO
GSW
LAL (b2b)
SAC
POR (b2b)
DEN
CHA (b2b)
CLE
TOR
BOS (b2b)
DET
MIA
CHI (b2b)
BRK
IND
MIL (b2b)
MEM
DET
MIA
MIA
MIL
CHA (Wildcard game. The entire season and playoff race could come down to this very game)

TOTALS
3 Wins
8 Possible Wins
12 Possible Losses
2 Losses
1 Wildcard

Out of the 75 'confidence points' available, I give them 37, which would put them just under 50% likelihood, not including the Charlotte Wildcard Game. But it would just take a few surprise wins against the likes of Chicago, Indiana, Miami, Toronto and Boston (whom we've all beat before) to put us even closer.

I would adjust a few of yours, specifically change Phoenix to an expected win (at home against a 14 win team, c'mon).

26-Feb @NY - W
28-Feb Phi - W
1-Mar @Dal - 50/50
2-Mar Chi - 50/50
4-Mar Pho - W
7-Mar @GS - L
8-Mar @LAL - W
11-Mar @Sac - W
12-Mar @Port - L
15-Mar Den - W
16-Mar @Char - 50/50
18-Mar Cle - L
20-Mar @Tor - L
21-Mar @Bos - 50/50
23-Mar @Det - 50/50
25-Mar @Miami - 50/50
26-Mar Chi - W
29-Mar Brook - W
31-Mar @Ind - 50/50
1-Apr @Mil - 50/50
3-Apr Mem - 50/50
6-Apr Det - 50/50
8-Apr Miami - 50/50
10-Apr @Miami - 50/50
11-Apr Mil - W
13-Apr @Char - 50/50

Personally I have 9 expected wins, 4 expected losses, and 13 50/50 games. So if we can go 7-6 in those games (maybe pick up an unexpected win, but have an unexpected loss, etc) than we'll get to .500.

We also have a number of games against the teams were battling against for that playoff spot, as do they between each other. I expect that .500 will make the playoffs in the East. I think the battle between all of our teams will knock that seed down a bit.

Note: I'm a bit flimsy with what I call a 50/50 game. Playing a tougher team may make it 50/50 at home but a loss on the road. Or playing a weaker team at home might be a win but a 50/50 on the road.

edit: if I had to make a projection I'd say 40 wins (15-11 the rest of the way).

If we want a realistic chance we need to win 8-10 IMO. The next ten games are the determining factor. If you win 8, you start thinking you can make it. If you go 5-5, the confidence drops.

Gotta win 7 games and steal one of two from either CHI or POR. GS is a guaranteed loss barring injury. Dallas we've shown we can beat already with their best effort offensively.

unsure....would have to involve a bit of luck

Unsure. Just about every game is a hard fought battle so you know they are good enough..

I started the pre-season expecting 38, we are on pace for ~37, so I see no good reason to change my prediction now. Whether 38 gets us into the playoffs or not is the bigger question. I tend to think it won't unfortunately. I'm hoping BJ and Ersan will equate to a few extra wins and push us into the 40-42 win category.

Bensational wrote:We need to go 16-10 to hit .500

But right now a .500 record wouldn't get you into the playoffs, so it's best to aim for better. Let's say 18-8 to put us at 42-40 at the end of the season?

Looking at the schedule, here's my rough breakdown...

Green = Expected Win (worth 3 'confidence points')
Blue = 50/50, but I'm inclined to think we will Win (worth 2 'confidence points')
Orange = 50/50, but I'm inclined to think we will Lose (worth 1 'confidence point')
Red = Expected Loss (worth 0 'confidence points')

NYK
PHI
DAL
CHI (b2b)
PHO
GSW
LAL (b2b)
SAC
POR (b2b)
DEN
CHA (b2b)
CLE
TOR
BOS (b2b)
DET
MIA
CHI (b2b)
BRK
IND
MIL (b2b)
MEM
DET
MIA
MIA
MIL
CHA (Wildcard game. The entire season and playoff race could come down to this very game)

TOTALS
3 Wins
8 Possible Wins
12 Possible Losses
2 Losses
1 Wildcard

Out of the 75 'confidence points' available, I give them 37, which would put them just under 50% likelihood, not including the Charlotte Wildcard Game. But it would just take a few surprise wins against the likes of Chicago, Indiana, Miami, Toronto and Boston (whom we've all beat before) to put us even closer.

UNO!

seeingstars wrote:Yall may laugh but I hope hezonja studies currys game like crazy because he has that 3 point potential. The effortless release. Plus hes taller and has a head start om development. I know the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 but Im an orlando magic fan.

Tmac was the next Jordan
Dwight Howard was the next shaq
Oladipo was dwayne wade

Skys truly the limit with this squad and the futures bright. I got that vision yo

Yeah,I like Mario and all and gave you a plus one for being so positive but hoping for him to become Curry is a bit over the top. I think Mario can become an elite shooter and my hope for him is to become a Durant-lite player with better passing skills. Not as good of a scorer but better facilitator. I think that is his ceiling.

Dipo is at a point where we know he won't become D Wade but he can still be a very good player. He needs to get very good at shooting,finishing at the rim or drawing fouls and play smarter basketball. If he could just become elite at one of those things and pick his spots better,he would be able to help us so much more.

Unlikely. The team is 3 games off my 41-41 pace right now (so 38 wins at this moment). However, I had them losing this game tonight. So win tonight, and you're only 2 games off my pace.

We'll know around mid-March - after we've gone through a lot of road games - if we have a legitimate chance.

Very unlikely. I say this because I've watched our team this season lol. We'll probably play a bit below .500 ball from here on out, which obviously won't cut it. The teams we are fighting with for the 8th spot are just better than us.