Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up?
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:21 pm
While we should be active in free agency this summer, it is far from a certainty that we will be able to land players that come in and make an immediate impact. With the amount of assets we have, you have to believe that Henny will have his eyes on the trade market, as well. With the hike in cap, Warriors & Spurs dominance, and general state of some teams...there should be some decent talent available.
You have your teams that have already been built but are severely disappointing...
-Sacramento: DMC has been a name tossed around on this board quite a bit. 100% chance Karl is fired and you would imagine that they will basically allow DMC to pick the coach or at least have final say. Unless, of course, they decide to move on from him as well. Rudy Gay could be seen as a bargain to a lot of teams, based on the upcoming spending spree. If they move those two pieces, they will certainly be able to shed the remaining guaranteed contracts that they have (Bellineli, Koufos, Collison) and they will be prepped for a complete rebuild.
-Houston: Dwight Howard will not be returning. It will be Houston's second attempt at building around Harden. The guaranteed money is worth holding on to (Ariza, Beverly, Brewer). There really isn't any young talent to speak of that they would move to help build. Unless we were trying to get draft picks, there isn't much to gain from dealing with Houston.
-Washington: Washington took a big step backwards this year and is on the verge of missing the playoffs. Building around John Wall is proving to be tougher than expected. Injuries to Beal and others have played a part but at the end of the day...they really aren't very good, even when 100% healthy. Beal is going to be a RFA and is likely to get paid big. I do think that a Beal + Wall duo at the G spot is one that you can build around...but there isn't much else there. They grabbed Markeiff Morris at the deadline to pair with Gortat down low. Those two are locked in. Outside of that, they have some room to work. They are going to have money to spend, even after matching an offer for Beal. Nothing really to gain from trading with Washington, as they will be looking to add...not tear down.
-Chicago: Derrick Rose & Jimmy Butler don't seem to work well together. Both aspire to be ball dominant players but aren't exactly guys you want always dominating the ball. Derrick Rose needs to evolve as a player and Jimmy Butler needs to become more of a playmaker for the rest of his team. That is a lot to ask. I don't believe either are suited to be the #1 guy...both are great #2's, when paired with the right #1. When it comes to the cap, Chicago is pretty strapped in....unless they find a market for Derrick Rose's expiring contract. I think the right move for Chicago would be to prepare for the summer of 2017. They will have a ton of flexibility at that point. I don't see them moving Jimmy Butler...he is on what will become a very reasonable contract for his production. Does anyone else on their roster interest us? Taj Gibson maybe?
Then you have teams that will likely change course if they playoffs don't go well...
-LA Clippers: A lot of statistics show that the Clippers are better off without Blake Griffin. If things don't go well in the playoffs, you can be certain that Chris Paul will want changes. Roughly 70 million is locked up between CP3, DeAndre, Griffin, and Redick. I include Redick because of how well he pairs with CP3...I don't see the Clipps moving him or Redick wanting to go anywhere any time soon. DeAndre also pairs incredibly well. Griffin...does not. He will be on the block if the Clippers come up short in the playoffs. I would imagine that if Griffin gets moved, it would be a multi-team deal where the Clippers got a good return of players who can help now. They won't be looking for young talent or picks.
-Memphis: Injuries have destroyed this season for Memphis. They have a solid playoff seeding but it is highly likely that they are eliminated early. If Memphis wants to...and Conley is on board...they can keep heading down their current path. They can hope that everyone stays healthy and they make a strong playoff run next year. Even if that is a possibility, I am sure they ask themselves...does that compete with SAS or GSW? If they bring Conley back, they would still have some flexibility to add another piece...would that be enough? The only real piece from Memphis that could benefit us is the one that will be available in free agency.
-Indiana: Paul George has shown that he has fully come back from the big injury. I think that is really all Indiana wanted to see this season. Next to him, they have a bunch of mid-level type contracts and mediocre talent. They will be looking to make moves, adding through FA and via trade. The guys they'd be looking to move don't really bring anything to the table that we need. Ian Mahinmi is attractive but he is a FA that we can grab on our own.
-Atlanta: They explored blowing it up before the trade deadline and held off. Since then, they have turned it around and played some great basketball as of late. They enter the playoffs as a top seed...again. If they falter and don't at least have a strong showing against Cleveland in the ECF, they are likely to pull the trigger and blow it up. If they let Horford walk, we could see Millsap and Teague become available. Both would be worth exploring.
-Cleveland: They are expected to at least make the Finals. LeBron expects to win the Finals. If by some chance they don't make it to the Finals...I would imagine all hell breaks loose. First, does LeBron opt out? If he comes back, Love is as good as gone. The return is unlikely to be all that great. Unfortunately for Cleveland, that is likely going to be their only route to improvement. They are strapped in by the cap with not much else supporting Kyrie & LeBron. Are we even sure those two actually work together? IMO, they don't. It will be really interesting to see how they proceed this summer.
-Dallas: After last season, I think a lot of people expected this to be Dirk's last season. However, he bounced back and has looked really good at times. Now he is saying that he wants to play through his 20th season. Thankfully for Dallas, he is the kind of guy that will take a big pay cut just to stay in Dallas and compete. After Parsons' season ending surgery, I expect him to opt in and go for a full season of health, in order to gain a bigger, long term deal. Wesley Matthews appears to have been a big overspend. I would imagine that they will shop him hard...but I don't know that there is much of a market. You know Cuban will be in the market to add pieces and there really isn't much for them to send out, outside of Matthews or Parsons.
So who do we go hard after? Atlanta could be the best trade partner. Chicago may have something to offer. A lot of people will continue to call for DMC from Sacramento. Unfortunately, going in to an offseason where the cap blows up...teams don't necessarily have to start from scratch to build. Teams like Houston or Washington have the ability to hold on to their key guys and add more. I think our best options on the trade market will be Teague, Millsap, and Gibson.
You have your teams that have already been built but are severely disappointing...
-Sacramento: DMC has been a name tossed around on this board quite a bit. 100% chance Karl is fired and you would imagine that they will basically allow DMC to pick the coach or at least have final say. Unless, of course, they decide to move on from him as well. Rudy Gay could be seen as a bargain to a lot of teams, based on the upcoming spending spree. If they move those two pieces, they will certainly be able to shed the remaining guaranteed contracts that they have (Bellineli, Koufos, Collison) and they will be prepped for a complete rebuild.
-Houston: Dwight Howard will not be returning. It will be Houston's second attempt at building around Harden. The guaranteed money is worth holding on to (Ariza, Beverly, Brewer). There really isn't any young talent to speak of that they would move to help build. Unless we were trying to get draft picks, there isn't much to gain from dealing with Houston.
-Washington: Washington took a big step backwards this year and is on the verge of missing the playoffs. Building around John Wall is proving to be tougher than expected. Injuries to Beal and others have played a part but at the end of the day...they really aren't very good, even when 100% healthy. Beal is going to be a RFA and is likely to get paid big. I do think that a Beal + Wall duo at the G spot is one that you can build around...but there isn't much else there. They grabbed Markeiff Morris at the deadline to pair with Gortat down low. Those two are locked in. Outside of that, they have some room to work. They are going to have money to spend, even after matching an offer for Beal. Nothing really to gain from trading with Washington, as they will be looking to add...not tear down.
-Chicago: Derrick Rose & Jimmy Butler don't seem to work well together. Both aspire to be ball dominant players but aren't exactly guys you want always dominating the ball. Derrick Rose needs to evolve as a player and Jimmy Butler needs to become more of a playmaker for the rest of his team. That is a lot to ask. I don't believe either are suited to be the #1 guy...both are great #2's, when paired with the right #1. When it comes to the cap, Chicago is pretty strapped in....unless they find a market for Derrick Rose's expiring contract. I think the right move for Chicago would be to prepare for the summer of 2017. They will have a ton of flexibility at that point. I don't see them moving Jimmy Butler...he is on what will become a very reasonable contract for his production. Does anyone else on their roster interest us? Taj Gibson maybe?
Then you have teams that will likely change course if they playoffs don't go well...
-LA Clippers: A lot of statistics show that the Clippers are better off without Blake Griffin. If things don't go well in the playoffs, you can be certain that Chris Paul will want changes. Roughly 70 million is locked up between CP3, DeAndre, Griffin, and Redick. I include Redick because of how well he pairs with CP3...I don't see the Clipps moving him or Redick wanting to go anywhere any time soon. DeAndre also pairs incredibly well. Griffin...does not. He will be on the block if the Clippers come up short in the playoffs. I would imagine that if Griffin gets moved, it would be a multi-team deal where the Clippers got a good return of players who can help now. They won't be looking for young talent or picks.
-Memphis: Injuries have destroyed this season for Memphis. They have a solid playoff seeding but it is highly likely that they are eliminated early. If Memphis wants to...and Conley is on board...they can keep heading down their current path. They can hope that everyone stays healthy and they make a strong playoff run next year. Even if that is a possibility, I am sure they ask themselves...does that compete with SAS or GSW? If they bring Conley back, they would still have some flexibility to add another piece...would that be enough? The only real piece from Memphis that could benefit us is the one that will be available in free agency.
-Indiana: Paul George has shown that he has fully come back from the big injury. I think that is really all Indiana wanted to see this season. Next to him, they have a bunch of mid-level type contracts and mediocre talent. They will be looking to make moves, adding through FA and via trade. The guys they'd be looking to move don't really bring anything to the table that we need. Ian Mahinmi is attractive but he is a FA that we can grab on our own.
-Atlanta: They explored blowing it up before the trade deadline and held off. Since then, they have turned it around and played some great basketball as of late. They enter the playoffs as a top seed...again. If they falter and don't at least have a strong showing against Cleveland in the ECF, they are likely to pull the trigger and blow it up. If they let Horford walk, we could see Millsap and Teague become available. Both would be worth exploring.
-Cleveland: They are expected to at least make the Finals. LeBron expects to win the Finals. If by some chance they don't make it to the Finals...I would imagine all hell breaks loose. First, does LeBron opt out? If he comes back, Love is as good as gone. The return is unlikely to be all that great. Unfortunately for Cleveland, that is likely going to be their only route to improvement. They are strapped in by the cap with not much else supporting Kyrie & LeBron. Are we even sure those two actually work together? IMO, they don't. It will be really interesting to see how they proceed this summer.
-Dallas: After last season, I think a lot of people expected this to be Dirk's last season. However, he bounced back and has looked really good at times. Now he is saying that he wants to play through his 20th season. Thankfully for Dallas, he is the kind of guy that will take a big pay cut just to stay in Dallas and compete. After Parsons' season ending surgery, I expect him to opt in and go for a full season of health, in order to gain a bigger, long term deal. Wesley Matthews appears to have been a big overspend. I would imagine that they will shop him hard...but I don't know that there is much of a market. You know Cuban will be in the market to add pieces and there really isn't much for them to send out, outside of Matthews or Parsons.
So who do we go hard after? Atlanta could be the best trade partner. Chicago may have something to offer. A lot of people will continue to call for DMC from Sacramento. Unfortunately, going in to an offseason where the cap blows up...teams don't necessarily have to start from scratch to build. Teams like Houston or Washington have the ability to hold on to their key guys and add more. I think our best options on the trade market will be Teague, Millsap, and Gibson.