Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Posted: Fri Apr 8, 2016 1:17 am
Sam Hinkie, another "Process" a/k/a "Tanker" GM of the Sixers, is out. How much time does Hennigan have left? Yes, Philly is currently worse than Orlando, but are they really that much worse over the next few years? The Sixers arguably have better assets going forward than the Magic, especially if Embiid comes back healthy next season. And even though they tanked more blatantly than Orlando, their record wasn't that much worse over the past 3 years.
Tanking will always appeal to some, but it just doesn't work enough to justify the negative impact it has on your young players' psyches, your fans' morale, your gate receipts, etc.
Oklahoma City tanked and got lucky, and unfortunately our young GM came from there and views that as a "blueprint."
Golden State is the most dominant team in the NBA with Curry (#7 pick), Thompson (#11 pick), and Green (second rounder).
Cleveland leads the East because they got LeBron back. When they were stock-piling top-5 picks (Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Bennett) they were terrible and didn't improve.
Toronto is second in the East with a killer back-court of DeRozan (#9 pick) and Lowry (#24 pick).
Miami has been good since they drafted Wade, and lost Shaq (stayed good) and LeBron (stayed good). Never tanked.
Charlotte is a solid playoff team with its best player Kemba Walker (#9 pick).
Boston is rebuilding on the fly and one of the top teams in the East. Hard to even pinpoint what it is they're doing right, but they're doing a lot right.
San Antonio got Duncan with a #1 pick but added him to a team that already had a #1 pick (Robinson) who was injured that year, so they weren't really a bad team getting a #1 pick.
The flawed assumption of tanking is that you have to be horrible -- hit rock-bottom -- and gut the team to get picks that will transform your team. But, a) you don't always get the top picks even when tanking (see Magic); b) even when you get the top picks they aren't always the best picks; and c) the best players often come from all over the top 10.
If we play the game of "what should Hennigan have done," we're only speculating as to outcomes. But we can at least ask "what if?" What if he would have kept Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick? There was this irrational fear of winning too many games and hurting our lottery odds, but would the Magic have been that good if they kept Anderson and Redick? They wouldn't have won that many more games, but they would've been more watchable and a little more competitive while still earning a lottery pick. And, more importantly, when they started adding those lottery picks over the next few years, they would've added them to a better foundation, of a team that was trying to compete instead of trying to lose. Hennigan let Anderson walk and a few years later signed a lesser version of him in Channing Frye. He traded Redick for Tobias Harris. Tobias is now helping the Pistons make the playoffs, and Redick is helping the Clippers be one of the best teams in the West.
Hinkie's departure could just be because Hinkie went overboard and alienated people along the way. But in a way it's also a referendum on tanking. Fans and ownership will buy "process" and "organic growth" for a few years, but their patience has a limit. The odds are incredibly low that you can intentionally make a team horrible and then build it up to a successful playoff team within a reasonable amount of time. It depends upon OKC luck, Durant and Westbrook falling into your lap.
So Hennigan has had 4 drafts, 4 top 10 picks in the past 3 drafts, a major superstar to trade for assets right out of the box in Dwight Howard, and 4 free-agency periods within which to sign players. At the end of Year 4 the team is 12 games below .500 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot with 4 games left. I think he'll get another year -- but I don't believe this is the win trajectory that he sold ownership on when they hired him.
Tanking will always appeal to some, but it just doesn't work enough to justify the negative impact it has on your young players' psyches, your fans' morale, your gate receipts, etc.
Oklahoma City tanked and got lucky, and unfortunately our young GM came from there and views that as a "blueprint."
Golden State is the most dominant team in the NBA with Curry (#7 pick), Thompson (#11 pick), and Green (second rounder).
Cleveland leads the East because they got LeBron back. When they were stock-piling top-5 picks (Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Bennett) they were terrible and didn't improve.
Toronto is second in the East with a killer back-court of DeRozan (#9 pick) and Lowry (#24 pick).
Miami has been good since they drafted Wade, and lost Shaq (stayed good) and LeBron (stayed good). Never tanked.
Charlotte is a solid playoff team with its best player Kemba Walker (#9 pick).
Boston is rebuilding on the fly and one of the top teams in the East. Hard to even pinpoint what it is they're doing right, but they're doing a lot right.
San Antonio got Duncan with a #1 pick but added him to a team that already had a #1 pick (Robinson) who was injured that year, so they weren't really a bad team getting a #1 pick.
The flawed assumption of tanking is that you have to be horrible -- hit rock-bottom -- and gut the team to get picks that will transform your team. But, a) you don't always get the top picks even when tanking (see Magic); b) even when you get the top picks they aren't always the best picks; and c) the best players often come from all over the top 10.
If we play the game of "what should Hennigan have done," we're only speculating as to outcomes. But we can at least ask "what if?" What if he would have kept Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick? There was this irrational fear of winning too many games and hurting our lottery odds, but would the Magic have been that good if they kept Anderson and Redick? They wouldn't have won that many more games, but they would've been more watchable and a little more competitive while still earning a lottery pick. And, more importantly, when they started adding those lottery picks over the next few years, they would've added them to a better foundation, of a team that was trying to compete instead of trying to lose. Hennigan let Anderson walk and a few years later signed a lesser version of him in Channing Frye. He traded Redick for Tobias Harris. Tobias is now helping the Pistons make the playoffs, and Redick is helping the Clippers be one of the best teams in the West.
Hinkie's departure could just be because Hinkie went overboard and alienated people along the way. But in a way it's also a referendum on tanking. Fans and ownership will buy "process" and "organic growth" for a few years, but their patience has a limit. The odds are incredibly low that you can intentionally make a team horrible and then build it up to a successful playoff team within a reasonable amount of time. It depends upon OKC luck, Durant and Westbrook falling into your lap.
So Hennigan has had 4 drafts, 4 top 10 picks in the past 3 drafts, a major superstar to trade for assets right out of the box in Dwight Howard, and 4 free-agency periods within which to sign players. At the end of Year 4 the team is 12 games below .500 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot with 4 games left. I think he'll get another year -- but I don't believe this is the win trajectory that he sold ownership on when they hired him.