RealGM

There's a lot of talk about our roster and about who will start/sit and how the minutes will be broken down or how there isn't going to be enough scoring, we need a go to scorer, Vuc needs to be in the starting line up because of our lack of scorers, etc etc.

85 Shots/Game is roughly the league average for FGs attempted per game across the NBA.

Last year the Magic averaged 86.8 FGAs/g. Under Vogel, the Pacers averaged 85.2.

When we break it down by the players on our current roster and how we expect them to expand or contract in their roles, I think looking at it from the viewpoint of FGA could give us better answers to questions we seek answers for. Feel free to express how you think the FGAs will be split among the players on our team.

Here is my first stab at it:



This is not a player to player comparison chart. It's simply FGA to PPG... and what should be within the realm of possibility.

PG Elfrid Payton - FGAs may only go up slightly, but he has to be more efficient to get more out of each shot.
SG Evan Fournier - Will be counted on more. Should be more efficient than Dipo was and lead the team in scoring.
SF Aaron Gordon - Breakout season coming! Are you ready?
PF Serge Ibaka - Expecting the team to make him happy by giving him a big role... Expecting him to seize the opportunity.
C Bismack Biyombo - Bismagic doesn't need the ball to be effective and that makes him an ideal fit in the starting lineup.

PG DJ Augustin - Veteran sub off the bench could have impactful moments in key situations, but FGAs will be up and down.
SG Jodie Meeks - Shooter will have his chances. Streaky, so if he's hot, he plays. If he's cold, he sits.
SF Mario Hezonja - Bump in Mario's FGAs will be key to helping him take the next step similar to the breakout season Crabbe had.
PF Jeff Green - Versatile veteran got paid, but his role is trending downward.
C Nikola Vucevic - Vucevic will see his FGAs take a hit, but his importance in scoring will still be needed.

There is no way we are close to a team that can put up an average of 110 ppg, but...if our guys can reach those types of levels which doesn't seem too impossible (to me), then it just goes to show what kind of games we might be able to get during the season. Plus, we may not need to score that much if we get the kind of defensive effort that we are all banking on.

I also think it weighs heavily on what most of us are hoping for... A big season from Elfrid and Aaron. Without them breaking out, we could easily be a lottery team. Those 2 are our make or breaks to our upcoming season. It will be their 3rd year, so this is the time we need it to happen.

Nice work man! I like your approach on this.

Only tweak I'd make, which might throw numbers out slightly, is that I see Fournier as a 15fga guy.

What kind of ripple effect would that have on the other numbers?

Bensational wrote:Nice work man! I like your approach on this.

Only tweak I'd make, which might throw numbers out slightly, is that I see Fournier as a 15fga guy.

What kind of ripple effect would that have on the other numbers?

Yeah, I see Fournier around 15fga as well, and I also don't think Vuc will shoot 6 less shots compared to last year as well. Vuc's shots will go down some due to less minutes, but not by that much in my opinion. I think those two guys will have the green light on offense more than anybody else, so I expect them to shoot the most. Other than that, the fga's are around what I would think they would be, so well done Skin.

When I saw this thread title, I thought it was going to be someone's story about 85 shots of Tequila with a few strippers.

I think Fournier puts up the most shot attempts on most games, Ibaka 2nd- he'll surprise people with his offensive game this year, and than really close between 3rd scorer and 6th scorer between Vucejic, Gordon, Payton and Mario.

Nicholson Big Zimm should get like 40 FGA

85/ Aaron Gordon
0/ rest of the team
Aaron Gordon Challenge
Lights out

BTW i hate the
Payton
Fournier
AG
Baka
BB lineup
Who's gonna score? Dont expect Fournie to be Tmac... Vuc is starting, and i even see DJ closer to be a starter over EP then BB over Vuc

The goal is to hope that Aaron will be aggressive to take these shots/the offense be tailored around parts of his game instead of last years clean up role. Elfrid should be more efficient with reliable screen setters and added shooting in the frontcourt. Questions abound with a new roster. Does Evan become more shot happy in non-Vuc lineups without an Oladipo limiter. Does Serge step up/stay the same/regress compared to last season? Will AG even improve handling a new role? Will Jodie beat out Mario for backup wing minutes(is Meeks favored by Vogel or will Mario stay the same/regress)? Will Vuc, the most tenured player of the Magic rebuild properly, handle the competition for minutes/trade rumors? There are serious questions on this group and I see some panning out while others failing.

actually when I saw the title I thought its about booze

I don't think we score 110 per game this season. Would be ecstatic if we do though.

rusoopE wrote:BTW i hate the
Payton
Fournier
AG
Baka
BB lineup
Who's gonna score? Dont expect Fournie to be Tmac... Vuc is starting, and i even see DJ closer to be a starter over EP then BB over Vuc

I expect Biyombo to start, and I think it will benefit both he and Payton. Biyombo is a bigger offensive liability when Payton isn't out there with him. Payton/Vucevic has never worked particularly well.

rusoopE wrote:BTW i hate the
Payton
Fournier
AG
Baka
BB lineup
Who's gonna score? Dont expect Fournie to be Tmac... Vuc is starting, and i even see DJ closer to be a starter over EP then BB over Vuc

I expect this lineup to be used situationally. I think this lineup can help match the Cavs as Biyombo can somewhat defend LeBron if needed without losing rim protection that TOR lacked doing this. Just remember Biyombo was supposed to be a backup to Valanciunas in Toronto so I think he can handle not starting and being used situationally.

UCFJayBird wrote:I don't think we score 110 per game this season. Would be ecstatic if we do though.

We'll probably score around 90ppg. BUT - our opponents will score around the same against us. Our D should be stifling.

Bensational wrote:Nice work man! I like your approach on this.

Only tweak I'd make, which might throw numbers out slightly, is that I see Fournier as a 15fga guy.

What kind of ripple effect would that have on the other numbers?

Thanks, I think Fournier could get up to that amount at some point in the season, but I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain the same success level. We saw how his game was affected when teams started focusing their defense to stop him. There were many times when he was frustrating to watch when he was being trigger happy. I think the best thing for him to do is stay in his lane and trust his teammates. He's not Kobe.

If he does average that amount, I think it would hurt the FGAs of Gordon and Payton.

Skin wrote:

Bensational wrote:Nice work man! I like your approach on this.

Only tweak I'd make, which might throw numbers out slightly, is that I see Fournier as a 15fga guy.

What kind of ripple effect would that have on the other numbers?

Thanks, I think Fournier could get up to that amount at some point in the season, but I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain the same success level. We saw how his game was affected when teams started focusing their defense to stop him. There were many times when he was frustrating to watch when he was being trigger happy. I think the best thing for him to do is stay in his lane and trust his teammates. He's not Kobe.

If he does average that amount, I think it would hurt the FGAs of Gordon and Payton.

I don't think this is realistic. With the weak shooting we are likely to have at the PG and SF positions and with the reduced role for Vooch, I think Fournier will find himself taking a lot of contested shots. And I don't think that will be his fault. I think it will be the inevitable by-product of a lineup that doesn't have lot of shooting, rim-scoring, or FTAs.

Catledge wrote:

Skin wrote:

Bensational wrote:Nice work man! I like your approach on this.

Only tweak I'd make, which might throw numbers out slightly, is that I see Fournier as a 15fga guy.

What kind of ripple effect would that have on the other numbers?

Thanks, I think Fournier could get up to that amount at some point in the season, but I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain the same success level. We saw how his game was affected when teams started focusing their defense to stop him. There were many times when he was frustrating to watch when he was being trigger happy. I think the best thing for him to do is stay in his lane and trust his teammates. He's not Kobe.

If he does average that amount, I think it would hurt the FGAs of Gordon and Payton.

I don't think this is realistic. With the weak shooting we are likely to have at the PG and SF positions and with the reduced role for Vooch, I think Fournier will find himself taking a lot of contested shots. And I don't think that will be his fault. I think it will be the inevitable by-product of a lineup that doesn't have lot of shooting, rim-scoring, or FTAs.

Fournier taking a lot of contested shots is a bad idea. So is the idea that he has to be Kobe Bryant and jack up a ton of shots in order for us to win. You haven't said this, but if Fournier is also one of the primary ball handlers and tries to play hero ball too much, then we're going to struggle too.

Fournier just needs to be a patient spot up shooter and wait for the ball to get to him and take the shot if it's open. He can drive or pass too, but taking contested shots is a bad idea. I'm expecting that both Payton and Gordon will be the primary ball handlers as well and our offense will have a lot of motion, cutting and passing. That's how we will become a dangerous team. When the defenses don't know where our offense is coming from. When we are utilizing all of our athletic gifts in attacking the rim, getting open shots or drawing fouls. It takes aggressive drives to the hole which Payton and Gordon are excellent at (but have to find more confidence in doing). All Fournier needs to do is cut to his spots and wait for the kick out pass once the opposing defense is forced to collapse on our drives. With Payton and Gordon both being good drivers and passers, we set the tone about our toughness on offense, which should create a lot of easy baskets... open shots for Fournier, Meeks, Hezonja, Ibaka, Vuc or lobs to Gordon, Hezonja, Green, Ibaka, Biyombo or trips to the FT line.

We have way too much talent to be a team exclusively relying upon Fournier to take zillion contested shots in order for us to generate offense. That's a losing recipe for success.

Like mentioned above I also think AG and Elf's progression this year will determine wether we comfortably make the playoffs or not.

Also Meeks and Augustine are gonna be crucial to our offensive production, one of them need to have a good season next year.

I do think Fournier's shots will rise but If I had to break down the offensive load with the starters I'd say he gets 30% of the shots with Vuc and Ibaka getting 25% each and AG getting 12-15%, what I mean is, Ibaka is getting the green light more than people think and AG is not gonna be thrust into Paul George boot camp right away.

Skin wrote:

Catledge wrote:

Skin wrote:Thanks, I think Fournier could get up to that amount at some point in the season, but I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain the same success level. We saw how his game was affected when teams started focusing their defense to stop him. There were many times when he was frustrating to watch when he was being trigger happy. I think the best thing for him to do is stay in his lane and trust his teammates. He's not Kobe.

If he does average that amount, I think it would hurt the FGAs of Gordon and Payton.

I don't think this is realistic. With the weak shooting we are likely to have at the PG and SF positions and with the reduced role for Vooch, I think Fournier will find himself taking a lot of contested shots. And I don't think that will be his fault. I think it will be the inevitable by-product of a lineup that doesn't have lot of shooting, rim-scoring, or FTAs.

Fournier taking a lot of contested shots is a bad idea. So is the idea that he has to be Kobe Bryant and jack up a ton of shots in order for us to win. You haven't said this, but if Fournier is also one of the primary ball handlers and tries to play hero ball too much, then we're going to struggle too.

Fournier just needs to be a patient spot up shooter and wait for the ball to get to him and take the shot if it's open. He can drive or pass too, but taking contested shots is a bad idea. I'm expecting that both Payton and Gordon will be the primary ball handlers as well and our offense will have a lot of motion, cutting and passing. That's how we will become a dangerous team. When the defenses don't know where our offense is coming from. When we are utilizing all of our athletic gifts in attacking the rim, getting open shots or drawing fouls. It takes aggressive drives to the hole which Payton and Gordon are excellent at (but have to find more confidence in doing). All Fournier needs to do is cut to his spots and wait for the kick out pass once the opposing defense is forced to collapse on our drives. With Payton and Gordon both being good drivers and passers, we set the tone about our toughness on offense, which should create a lot of easy baskets... open shots for Fournier, Meeks, Hezonja, Ibaka, Vuc or lobs to Gordon, Hezonja, Green, Ibaka, Biyombo or trips to the FT line.

We have way too much talent to be a team exclusively relying upon Fournier to take zillion contested shots in order for us to generate offense. That's a losing recipe for success.

It strikes me as a bit of a fantasy to think that we're not going to take many contested shots. I mean, sure, if Payton, Gordon, and Ibaka all turn out to be much better offensive players than they have ever sustained over the course of a season, then I can see Fournier being able to stay patient and wait for the offense to come to him.

But if we play against a lot of packed-in defenses that are leaving bad shooters open, we will frequently be better off with Fournier taking 3s off the dribble or going hard at the rim in hope of getting fouled.

Catledge wrote:

Skin wrote:

Catledge wrote:
I don't think this is realistic. With the weak shooting we are likely to have at the PG and SF positions and with the reduced role for Vooch, I think Fournier will find himself taking a lot of contested shots. And I don't think that will be his fault. I think it will be the inevitable by-product of a lineup that doesn't have lot of shooting, rim-scoring, or FTAs.

Fournier taking a lot of contested shots is a bad idea. So is the idea that he has to be Kobe Bryant and jack up a ton of shots in order for us to win. You haven't said this, but if Fournier is also one of the primary ball handlers and tries to play hero ball too much, then we're going to struggle too.

Fournier just needs to be a patient spot up shooter and wait for the ball to get to him and take the shot if it's open. He can drive or pass too, but taking contested shots is a bad idea. I'm expecting that both Payton and Gordon will be the primary ball handlers as well and our offense will have a lot of motion, cutting and passing. That's how we will become a dangerous team. When the defenses don't know where our offense is coming from. When we are utilizing all of our athletic gifts in attacking the rim, getting open shots or drawing fouls. It takes aggressive drives to the hole which Payton and Gordon are excellent at (but have to find more confidence in doing). All Fournier needs to do is cut to his spots and wait for the kick out pass once the opposing defense is forced to collapse on our drives. With Payton and Gordon both being good drivers and passers, we set the tone about our toughness on offense, which should create a lot of easy baskets... open shots for Fournier, Meeks, Hezonja, Ibaka, Vuc or lobs to Gordon, Hezonja, Green, Ibaka, Biyombo or trips to the FT line.

We have way too much talent to be a team exclusively relying upon Fournier to take zillion contested shots in order for us to generate offense. That's a losing recipe for success.

It strikes me as a bit of a fantasy to think that we're not going to take many contested shots. I mean, sure, if Payton, Gordon, and Ibaka all turn out to be much better offensive players than they have ever sustained over the course of a season, then I can see Fournier being able to stay patient and wait for the offense to come to him.

But if we play against a lot of packed-in defenses that are leaving bad shooters open, we will frequently be better off with Fournier taking 3s off the dribble or going hard at the rim in hope of getting fouled.

If we are playing packed-in defenses, that would make it better for Fournier sit on the perimeter and wait to get open looks. If Fournier is the one driving, he can't be the outside shooter we need him to be. It seems to be a bit of a fantasy to think that Fournier will be the kind of "attack the rim" player that will force defenses to pack it in. That's where Payton/Gordon have the advantage over him. ...and Fournier has the advantage over them of being an outside shooter. So why would we do it oppositely of that? No wonder you have a problem with our situation. You think Fournier is Kobe and Payton and Gordon are supposed to be Fisher and Odom waiting on the wings hoping to get the pass for an open shot. I'm not the coach of the Magic but if that's the plan, then we are screwed.