RealGM

Ok so I've done a lot of thinking about our players offense, their percentages, their age, their progression. I've realized that if this team is ever going to make the playoffs that they cannot do so if we have two players in Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon playing two important positions that shoot so poorly from 3pt line and from the FT line. The numbers:

Elfrid-
15: 42.5% FG 26.2% 3ptFG 55.1% FT
16: 43.6% FG 32.6% 3ptFG 58.8% FT
17: 45.5% FG 26.6% 3ptFG 66.9% FT

Aaron-
15: 44.7% FG 27.1% 3ptFG 72.1% FT
16: 47.3% FG 29.6% 3ptFG 66.8% FT
17: 43.0% FG 28.1% 3ptFG 66.2% FT

NBA League Average-
17: 45.6% FG 35.9% 3ptFG 77.2% FT

So Elf improved his 3pt shooting in year 2 but regressed this year to his rookie year numbers this year. His FT shooting has improved steadily but it is still below 70%, well below league average. AG is essentially shooting the same 3pt % as he did his rookie year, terrible. His FT% has actually decreased from his rookie year and has stagnated at around 66%, also well below league average.

Now I just dont see these 2 players being able to make large leaps in their percentages. They most likely will improve some but not enough to warrant that they both continue to start for this team. We will never make the playoffs if we continue to feature 2 players that are so far below the league average in 3pt shooting and FT shooting, not with the way the league has evolved. We have no spacing to allow for driving, thus leading to poor ball movement and low number of trips to the FT line. We are next to last as a team in 3pt shooting percentage and 4th worst in FG% & FT%

I think we should look at trading one of these 2 players. My prorities:

1) Trade Elfrid and acquire a PG that can shoot and is starter level, either with the draft or FA or trade. Why Elf should be the first priotity to be sent out? He is a PG and shooting 27% from the 3pt line, that is laugable. The guy running and setting up our offense is such a terrible shooter that it allows opponents to guards our other players easier thus stalling our offense. AG does not initiate the offense, so his lack of offense does not hurt us as bad as Elf's lack of offense does.

2) If #1 is not feasible, we must trade AG and acquire a PF that is starter level and can shoot, either draft, FA, or trade. We tried to acquire guys like this, getting Frye and Ibaka but they didnt work out. Frye is just a bench player and Ibaka did not fit in and his athletecism has declined. We would have to acquire someone better than those 2.

If this team will ever wants to make the playoffs, then Elf and AG need to be seperated. Such awful shooting just cannot continue to be kept together. Its stiffling our offense, its like playing with one hand tied behind your back.

Optimus_Steel wrote:Ok so I've done a lot of thinking about our players offense, their percentages, their age, their progression. I've realized that if this team is ever going to make the playoffs that they cannot do so if we have two players in Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon playing two important positions that shoot so poorly from 3pt line and from the FT line. The numbers:

Elfrid-
15: 42.5% FG 26.2% 3ptFG 55.1% FT
16: 43.6% FG 32.6% 3ptFG 58.8% FT
17: 45.5% FG 26.6% 3ptFG 66.9% FT

Aaron-
15: 44.7% FG 27.1% 3ptFG 72.1% FT
16: 47.3% FG 29.6% 3ptFG 66.8% FT
17: 43.0% FG 28.1% 3ptFG 66.2% FT

NBA League Average-
17: 45.6% FG 35.9% 3ptFG 77.2% FT

So Elf improved his 3pt shooting in year 2 but regressed this year to his rookie year numbers this year. His FT shooting has improved steadily but it is still below 70%, well below league average. AG is essentially shooting the same 3pt % as he did his rookie year, terrible. His FT% has actually decreased from his rookie year and has stagnated at around 66%, also well below league average.

Now I just dont see these 2 players being able to make large leaps in their percentages. They most likely will improve some but not enough to warrant that they both continue to start for this team. We will never make the playoffs if we continue to feature 2 players that are so far below the league average in 3pt shooting and FT shooting, not with the way the league has evolved. We have no spacing to allow for driving, thus leading to poor ball movement and low number of trips to the FT line. We are next to last as a team in 3pt shooting percentage and 4th worst in FG% & FT%

I think we should look at trading one of these 2 players. My prorities:

1) Trade Elfrid and acquire a PG that can shoot and is starter level, either with the draft or FA or trade. Why Elf should be the first priotity to be sent out? He is a PG and shooting 27% from the 3pt line, that is laugable. The guy running and setting up our offense is such a terrible shooter that it allows opponents to guards our other players easier thus stalling our offense. AG does not initiate the offense, so his lack of offense does not hurt us as bad as Elf's lack of offense does.

2) If #1 is not feasible, we must trade AG and acquire a PF that is starter level and can shoot, either draft, FA, or trade. We tried to acquire guys like this, getting Frye and Ibaka but they didnt work out. Frye is just a bench player and Ibaka did not fit in and his athletecism has declined. We would have to acquire someone better than those 2.

If this team will ever wants to make the playoffs, then Elf and AG need to be seperated. Such awful shooting just cannot continue to be kept together. Its stiffling our offense, its like playing with one hand tied behind your back.

Agreed.

Now feel the wrath of homers telling you how crazy you are for recommending this and that they are too young to be given up on.

I'll trade Elf. Why? We can get a good replacement this draft. This draft has a deep guard depth. Assuming we can land one of the top guards in this draft, its likely a player who will need the ball in his hands. That would make Elf ineffective until he becomes a respectable shooter.

I wouldn't trade AG. Despite the fact that I've said that he sucks, he simply doesn't need the ball to be effective. Defensively, he is amazing. The Morris-Tobias, Porter-Morris combination gives me hope that even if we draft a Tatum or Jackson, AG will be able to complement either.

But, AG said he is going to be in the 3 point contest someday. Thus, he will improve!

I agree that they can't play together, but didn't Payton thrive coming off the bench? Isn't this draft PG heavy? Isn't there plenty of suitable veteran point guards on the trade market (Bledsoe/Jackson/Knight at a lower extent)? Isn't there plenty of suitable veteran point guards available via free agency (Rose/Holiday/Teague/Hill/Collison/Mills)?

If there is a logical trade sure Payton would be the first to go, but I don't think it's a serious problem when we have concrete data that he thrived coming off the bench vs. opposing teams 2nd units.

Good post Optimus.

I think, even without the stats, it's pretty clear that we need an upgrade in shot creation, creating for others and shooting in one of those positions.

I think if we're in a position to draft a point guard this summer then Elfrid or DJ will be traded. Given he's due an extension in 2018 which will likely be greater than Augustin's deal + the likelihood he wants to start, Elf is probably favourite to be gone.

Side note: Aaron should have been focusing on the basics he needs to be a starting 4 this season rather than aspects of the game he wasn't ready for at the 3 e.g. beating guys one on one off the dribble.

You learn to fall in love with the players that your team drafts. However im tired of losing and im all for doing what ever we have to so that this franchise gets back to being respected in this league.

I don't think it's that they can't play together. I think it's that they can't play well at this stage in their careers. There is no team that is a good fit for the 2016-17 versions of EP and AG because this year's versions of those players are not up to the standard of NBA starters.

I actually think that we should keep them both and bring them off the bench next year in hopes that they will fill the giant holes in their games. But I think it's a fantasy to believe that each is holding the other back. The truth is that each is being held back by his own ability.

Catledge wrote:I don't think it's that they can't play together. I think it's that they can't play well at this stage in their careers. There is no team that is a good fit for the 2016-17 versions of EP and AG because this year's versions of those players are not up to the standard of NBA starters.

I actually think that we should keep them both and bring them off the bench next year in hopes that they will fill the giant holes in their games. But I think it's a fantasy to believe that each is holding the other back. The truth is that each is being held back by his own ability.

Nice post. They are both slow developing players. Neither really have the drive to improve so it's a slow process. They will naturally get better over time, but they aren't the type that are going to be speeding up development with crazy determination.

fendilim wrote:I'll trade Elf. Why? We can get a good replacement this draft. This draft has a deep guard depth. Assuming we can land one of the top guards in this draft, its likely a player who will need the ball in his hands. That would make Elf ineffective until he becomes a respectable shooter.

I wouldn't trade AG. Despite the fact that I've said that he sucks, he simply doesn't need the ball to be effective. Defensively, he is amazing. The Morris-Tobias, Porter-Morris combination gives me hope that even if we draft a Tatum or Jackson, AG will be able to complement either.

my problem is. AG isnt a rim protector. So you cant really play him with Vuc. And his offense is bad, so you cant play him with Biz for very long. I have nothing against AG, but he never should have been taken at #4, with expectations that he just cant live up to. He continues to look like a bench/role playing combo forward, athleticism but less basketball skill.

tiderulz wrote:

fendilim wrote:I'll trade Elf. Why? We can get a good replacement this draft. This draft has a deep guard depth. Assuming we can land one of the top guards in this draft, its likely a player who will need the ball in his hands. That would make Elf ineffective until he becomes a respectable shooter.

I wouldn't trade AG. Despite the fact that I've said that he sucks, he simply doesn't need the ball to be effective. Defensively, he is amazing. The Morris-Tobias, Porter-Morris combination gives me hope that even if we draft a Tatum or Jackson, AG will be able to complement either.

my problem is. AG isnt a rim protector. So you cant really play him with Vuc. And his offense is bad, so you cant play him with Biz for very long. I have nothing against AG, but he never should have been taken at #4, with expectations that he just cant live up to. He continues to look like a bench/role playing combo forward, athleticism but less basketball skill.

I mean, who in the lottery would you have taken over him?

EP would be a decent bench pg until he or Vogel or whoever learns how to turn the switch on that transforms him into the aggressive, take over the game player we have seen on rare occasion this year. AG has the defense to be a starting pf in this league but needs an enormous amount of help on the offensive side. That, imho, is the job of Vogel and/or the assistant coaches - which again, imho, is an area we are severely lacking! Using the positive attributes correctly and bolstering the lacking areas of each player is what defines a successful team!

47/28/64 & 43/33/80 - 26 and 24 years old respectively, $28 million combined, meant to be our offensive weapons... one with a player that mostly only passes to the other one.

45/26/67 & 43/28/66 - 23 and 21 years old respectively, $6 million combined, two players that still aren't where we want them to be offensively yet they "damage" the team so bad we have to trade one of them.

But hmm.. who's really counting. I'm sure we'll have people say that Fournier isn't a black hole and that him and Vucevic are our best players despite having numbers like that. And I'm sure those numbers will be blamed on bad offensive weapons around them instead of their actual play.

SOUL wrote:47/28/64 & 43/33/80 - 26 and 24 years old respectively, $28 million combined, meant to be our offensive weapons... one with a player that mostly only passes to the other one.

45/26/67 & 43/28/66 - 23 and 21 years old respectively, $6 million combined, two players that still aren't where we want them to be offensively yet they "damage" the team so bad we have to trade one of them.

But hmm.. who's really counting. I'm sure we'll have people say that Fournier isn't a black hole and that him and Vucevic are our best players despite having numbers like that. And I'm sure those numbers will be blamed on bad offensive weapons around them instead of their actual play.

I can play this game:

00/00/00 & 00/00/00 (no clue what those numbers are supposed to mean) - 31 and 25 years old respectively, $32 million combined, meant to be our . . . weapons... one is a black green hole and the other player that mostly can play defense . . . sometimes.

BadMofoPimp wrote:00/00/00 & 00/00/00 (no clue what those numbers are supposed to mean) - 31 and 25 years old respectively, $32 million combined, meant to be our . . . weapons... one is a black hole and the other player that mostly can play defense . . . sometimes.

If you don't know what those numbers are then I'm not going to debate you, lol.

SOUL wrote:47/28/64 & 43/33/80 - 26 and 24 years old respectively, $28 million combined, meant to be our offensive weapons... one with a player that mostly only passes to the other one.

45/26/67 & 43/28/66 - 23 and 21 years old respectively, $6 million combined, two players that still aren't where we want them to be offensively yet they "damage" the team so bad we have to trade one of them.

But hmm.. who's really counting. I'm sure we'll have people say that Fournier isn't a black hole and that him and Vucevic are our best players despite having numbers like that. And I'm sure those numbers will be blamed on bad offensive weapons around them instead of their actual play.

We are 29th out of 30 teams in offensive efficiency. I say everyone on this team is on watch to get sent packing, except for Ross who has not been here long. But I feel like Elf and AG's utter lack of shooting is more of a culprit in us being the 2nd worst offense in the league than the other 2 guys you mentioned, specially Elf since he is the PG and the initiator.

Optimus_Steel wrote:We are 29th out of 30 teams in offensive efficiency. I say everyone on this team is on watch to get sent packing, except for Ross who has not been here long. But I feel like Elf and AG's utter lack of shooting is more of a culprit in us being the 2nd worst offense in the league than the other 2 guys you mentioned, specially Elf since he is the PG and the initiator.

That's fair, just saying that there has to be team wide accountability. There are a lot of players contributing to those numbers. And I think in particular, the buddy ball between those two is much more damaging because it isn't really conducive to the sort of offense that wins in the league now which is moving the ball to the open man. Anybody on this team is available for the right package, but I'm against trading younger players in lateral moves at best. Has to be a clear upgrade/we make sure that player fits or else it'll be the same old.

Jameerthefear wrote:

tiderulz wrote:

fendilim wrote:I'll trade Elf. Why? We can get a good replacement this draft. This draft has a deep guard depth. Assuming we can land one of the top guards in this draft, its likely a player who will need the ball in his hands. That would make Elf ineffective until he becomes a respectable shooter.

I wouldn't trade AG. Despite the fact that I've said that he sucks, he simply doesn't need the ball to be effective. Defensively, he is amazing. The Morris-Tobias, Porter-Morris combination gives me hope that even if we draft a Tatum or Jackson, AG will be able to complement either.

my problem is. AG isnt a rim protector. So you cant really play him with Vuc. And his offense is bad, so you cant play him with Biz for very long. I have nothing against AG, but he never should have been taken at #4, with expectations that he just cant live up to. He continues to look like a bench/role playing combo forward, athleticism but less basketball skill.

I mean, who in the lottery would you have taken over him?

traded out if possible. He just isnt a very good player.

SOUL wrote:

Optimus_Steel wrote:We are 29th out of 30 teams in offensive efficiency. I say everyone on this team is on watch to get sent packing, except for Ross who has not been here long. But I feel like Elf and AG's utter lack of shooting is more of a culprit in us being the 2nd worst offense in the league than the other 2 guys you mentioned, specially Elf since he is the PG and the initiator.

That's fair, just saying that there has to be team wide accountability. There are a lot of players contributing to those numbers. And I think in particular, the buddy ball between those two is much more damaging because it isn't really conducive to the sort of offense that wins in the league now which is moving the ball to the open man. Anybody on this team is available for the right package, but I'm against trading younger players in lateral moves at best. Has to be a clear upgrade/we make sure that player fits or else it'll be the same old.

This is what I think happens, for example the Port game. Team played well on offense, they moved the ball, etc, however Port was playing lazy defense as well then in the 4th quarter they picked it up. Teams pick up the defense and they take some things away that were coming easier in the game and our team panic's because the overall offensive skill is lacking. The long contested jumpshots that brick start coming, they realize that is not working so they resort to selfish one on one, Vuc and Evan two man game, trying to be hero, so on and so on.

It was heavily noted with both ep and ag that shooting was the biggest weakness for both entering the nba. I'd love to see better improvement from each but I don't think they're broken. As young players you got to learn where your spots are and be comfortable taking those shots. Going through 4 coaches in your first 3 seasons doesn't help anything. That's 4 different styles of offense to learn. I'm not saying that I think they will both shoot 50/40/90 but I don't think it's crazy to give the boys a chance to get used to the same system and teammates for a change.