bwgood77 edit - this was written from perspective before lotto when Suns were slated 2nd pick.
Hey guys, back again with round 3 of the draft series I've been putting together for all of the people interested in the draft that haven't seen much of the prospects or just want more content to talk about with the season being over for all of the top guys. This time around is Jonathan Isaac, who I think is a very interesting prospect for the NBA, and this is probably prospect that I expect more people might have views that conflict how I see him. Definitely a pain in the ass to scout this guy, he played the least consistent playing time of the top prospects and FSU subs so damn much. Unfortunately one of the YouTube accounts that posted full games has been removed, so I will have to put more effort into finding full games that aren't up on WatchESPN for the next few posts, but I'll tentatively set the date for the next post to be Friday.
Jonathan Isaac – Florida State University (Fr.)
Age on Draft Day: 19 years, 9 months
Height: 6’ 10.5”
Wingspan: 7’ 1.25”
Standing Reach: 9’ .5”
Games Available Online:
Vs. Duke (1)
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Vs. Duke (2)
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Vs. UNC
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Vs. Virginia Tech
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Vs. Clemson
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Vs. NC State
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Other Content:
Jonathan Isaac statistically vs. SFs (courtesy of kennydorglas):
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Jonathan Isaac statistically vs. PFs (courtesy of kennydorglas):
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Introduction
Jonathan Isaac is a controversial prospect to me for two main reasons: it’s tough to say what he can do with more time on the ball because he played with very ball-dominant guards, and the position he’ll play in the NBA is up to interpretation. A lot of what is so attractive about Isaac as a prospect is his great mobility for his measurables and projecting him to be able to play Small Forward in the NBA. I personally see him as a modern NBA Power Forward that may play spells at Small Forward because it’s trending toward being a floor-spacing position made up of “big Small Forwards” instead of an inside presence, and while I think he’s very mobile and handles the ball reasonably well, he isn’t as quick, strong, or explosive as NBA Small Forwards right now. Isaac primarily played Power Forward for a huge Florida State team, but spent a lot of his time spotting up on the perimeter in a 4-out offense where he shot a respectable 34.8% from 3 on the season (although only 32.7% in conference/tournament play). Isaac also occasionally flashed some more advanced ball handling skills on the wings, but didn’t show a lot of ability to get separation when attacking the paint against college Power Forwards and wing defenders in zone defenses, although he has a solid pump fake to one/two dribble pull-up that he uses successfully frequently. While Isaac was productive for a freshman, he wasn’t featured on the Florida State offense near as much as Dwayne Bacon and competed with Terance Mann and XRM for shots on a team that went very deep into the bench. Defensively, Isaac is very versatile in that he could switch on to most positions in the NBA successfully, and he is very good at getting into a defensive stance on the perimeter and using his mobility and length to keep ball handlers in front of him. His length also made him a rim protecting presence when he was down low on defense, posting a very solid 6.2 BLK% for FSU (for comparison, Josh Jackson has 3.5% and Jayson Tatum has 3.2%).
While I think that Isaac has a relatively safe floor because he will have a positive impact on defense, I’m not as sold on him having such a high ceiling. I think he’s more likely to end up being a very good role player that defends well, doesn’t let the ball stick to his hands for long but isn’t making many plays either, spreads the defense with his shooting, rebounds the ball, and overall plays within himself. I feel like this because, although it may have been partly due to his role, he very rarely asserted himself into the college game like you’d expect a high lottery pick to do. So much of his scoring came from being spoon fed at the rim or being the tallest and longest guy hitting the offensive boards with 85% (63/74) of his made shots at the rim being assisted or put backs. For comparison, Josh Jackson only had 63% (81/127) despite Kansas running plays for him to get an alley oop multiple times a game and Jayson Tatum is even lower at just 43% (32/75). That means that over the entire college basketball season, Jonathan Isaac successfully created his own shot at the rim, whether it was off a steal in transition, attacking the basket off the wing, making a multi-dribble post move, really anything, a total of 11 times. To me, that spells out a lack of assertion on offense and a limited offensive skillset. Couple that with Isaacs undeveloped frame, inconsistent impact through the season, and average to slightly-above-average athleticism relative to the NBA, and I see more potential to be very good role player than a shot at a star.
Offensive Ability
Isaac’s offensive package has a solid foundation to build on, but I don’t think he has the smoothness or athleticism to be a shot creator at the next level. Over the 32-game season for Florida State, Isaac had a total of only 32 unassisted made baskets that weren’t the result of an offensive rebound, 16 of which were 2-point jump shots (48 over 35 for Jackson and 44 over 29 for Tatum) and 5 of which were 3-point shots (with the same number of unassisted 3s for Jackson and Tatum). That’s not to say that there is anything wrong with being more reliant on others to help create your offense, but when you consider his lack of ability to create offense for himself and the lack of playmaking ability for others (Isaac: 7.5 AST%, Jackson: 18.2 AST%, Tatum: 12.2 AST%), it’s very tough to project him as a first or even second offensive option on a good team without expecting vast improvements on both areas of that games. Although he played a lot of Power Forward for Florida State, he was only a Power Forward by role on defense, while offensively he was more of a perimeter player for Florida State that would occasionally hide on the baseline against zones to stretch out the defense, so there wasn’t much of a developed post game to be seen despite the height.
While I don’t project him to develop into a star player without significant advancements being made on his body and overall game, Isaac’s offensive package still has the potential to translate very well as a glue guy/third option. He projects to score fairly efficiently from all areas of the court, shooting 70% at the rim, 41% on 2-point jump shots, 78% from the free throw line, and a respectable 35% from 3 on the season, and he has a solid pump fake-to-one/two dribble pull-up jump shot that will help keep teams from just chasing him off the 3-point line. His shot is reasonably quick and has a high release, although he’ll occasionally gets weird rotation on his shot, so he doesn’t need much cosmetic work in the NBA and will mostly have to work on having a consistent release point and speeding up his mechanics. Also, while I make out his offensive rebounding and put backs to be a negative for his star potential because they make up a large percentage of his offense, they are very good traits to have as a player that isn’t a high usage option because he can impact the game as a floor spacer, move the ball, and be effective cleaning up on misses from the volume shooters. Although a lot of teams draft for a potential superstar player at the top of the lottery, a guy like Isaac that knows his role, keeps the ball moving on offense, hits the kick-out 3 point shots off the drive/out of the post, occasionally puts the ball on the deck, and crashes the board hard is still very valuable when they offer the potential defensive impact that Isaac can bring.
Passing
Isaac is a very willing passer on offense, plays within himself and the offense, and doesn’t have the tendency to dribble the air out of the ball or try to attack without having an advantage. He’ll occasionally flash some playmaking with a nice pass to a cutter or man down low where he sees over the defense and zips a pass in, but it’s not a consistent part of his game at this point, seeing as he had just 2 games this season with over 2 assists and only averaged 1.2 assists per game on the season with a very small 7.5 AST%. There really isn’t too much to say about his passing ability outside of that he very rarely makes a difficult/bad pass that ends in a turnover and is willing to make the extra pass to the more open shooter against rotating defenses.
Ball Handling
Occasionally you’ll see Jonathan Isaac pull a couple nice crossovers out of the trick bag, but right now he’s a lot more effective using high hesitation dribbles to get into a pull-up jump shot than he is at creating space off the dribble and getting to the rim. One thing I saw a lot in the tape is he’s not particularly good at turning the corner and getting his man on the back of his hip when he drives, so a lot of the time he would drive into the paint with his man going slide-for-slide with him the entire way, giving him no opportunity to get to the rim or get a clean shot off. Whether the cause of this is a slow first step or his crossover not having a lot of “shake” to it is up to interpretation, but it isn’t encouraging to me when the athleticism and strength of the competition takes a big jump once he gets to the NBA. He didn’t really handle much of the ball in pick-and-roll situations and likely won’t see too many in the NBA early in his career.
Defense
Defense is the area that Jonathan Isaac will make most his impact on at the beginning of his career and should be something that helps him see the court more over some of the other incoming rookies, especially if he shows that he can hit spot up 3s at the NBA level early. Isaac has excellent size in length, good lateral mobility for his size, drops into a fundamentally sound defensive stance, and should be able to switch at least 2 to 4 with the potential of being a 1 to 5 guy because of his length if he puts some muscle on his frame and shows he can stay in front of NBA Point Guards reasonably well, which is extremely valuable with how the NBA is trending toward heavily perimeter-oriented offenses with minimal true post presence. He is viewed very favorably by advanced defensive metrics, posting 93.6 DRTG, 1.9 DWS, 6.1 DBPM, 2.4 STL%, and 6.2 BLK% (Jackson: 96, 2.2, 5.7, 3.1%, 3.5%, Tatum: 97.6, 1.8, 4.2, 2.4%, 3.2% respectively) and usually passes the eye test for me as far as defensive awareness, staying in a stance, rotating on defense, etc.
Fit with the Phoenix Suns
I don’t know if I see Isaac fitting with the Phoenix Suns with how I view him, especially after last year’s draft. To me, he’s a similar mold of Power Forward as Dragan Bender: underdeveloped physically, spaces the floor, moves the ball, plays good and versatile defense, handles the ball relatively well, and anything else at this point is extra, except that Bender will still be younger on draft day even though he’s had a year in the NBA, is taller and longer, and looks to be a better passer/playmaker. He might be able to play spot minutes at Small Forward for us like we expect Bender to in the future, but I don’t think he fits better at that position with the Suns than the other top prospects at Small Forward.
Conclusion
Although Isaac has been talked about as a high-ceiling guy in this draft because of his measurables and shooting ability, I personally see him developing into a good glue guy/third option on a good team because of his defensive impact, lack of shot creation/playmaking ability shown in college, and overall skillset. He could be one of those guys that doesn’t get to show his true skill because of the system that he plays in and the players around him, but when I watch him I just doesn’t see those star flashes that I get from some of the other top prospects in this draft class. Since I don’t see him as a fit with the current Suns roster, if I had to pick a team I’d like to see him on most it’d be on the Minnesota Timberwolves because he’d be a very good defensive partner for Karl-Anthony Towns in the front court, helps defend out on the perimeter with Wiggins and LaVine being average-to-below average defenders, and he spaces the floor without taking the ball out of KAT and Wiggins’ hands.
Next prospect: Jayson Tatum
Next up is Jayson Tatum, and I'll follow that one up with Lonzo Ball, then Josh Jackson since everyone is out of March Madness already. After that, I think I'll take suggestions on who you'd like to see a post on, since everyone here has seen plenty of Lauri and I don't know how much interest there is in the Kentucky guards. Hopefully this one generates a bit more discussion because Isaac is a prospect that has a lot of different views on what he'll be and was voted as the one we'd want most if we missed on Fultz, Ball, Jackson, and Tatum. Also, thanks to everyone who's been reading and posting, it's very appreciated and let's me know that people are interested and I'm not just wasting my time lol.
