RealGM

Hi all!

Magic offseason preview is up for RealGM. Love to hear your thoughts!

Smitty

Thanks, here is the link to make it easier - http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/245647/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Orlando-Magic

Just finished reading it and it's a good wrap up of the season and hits on the key points for the future.

Wholeheartedly agree with your point on "talent collection phase." The Magic need to approach this off-season like a ground up rebuild. Forget about fit for the draft and simply draft the best player or one most likely to become a superstar. I also agree that while Elfrid Payton had some good stats to end the season, it rarely materializes into winning. I'm leaning toward moving on from Payton as the starting point guard of the team. At the same time, I'm not sure/convinced De'Aaron Fox or Dennis Smith Jr. would be the answers. Almost assuredly, each would be a step backward given rookie point guards have a steep learning curve. I don't believe the franchise is interested in taking a few steps back to get better long term, but we'll see. Most importantly will be finding a leader to make these tough decisions.

PennytoShaq wrote:Thanks, here is the link to make it easier - http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/245647/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Orlando-Magic

Thanks! I'm a bonehead and forgot to paste it in!

you say Orlando fired Skiles, I thought he quit??

agree with most of your thoughts on the season past and the offseason to come

Def Swami wrote:Just finished reading it and it's a good wrap up of the season and hits on the key points for the future.

Wholeheartedly agree with your point on "talent collection phase." The Magic need to approach this off-season like a ground up rebuild. Forget about fit for the draft and simply draft the best player or one most likely to become a superstar. I also agree that while Elfrid Payton had some good stats to end the season, it rarely materializes into winning. I'm leaning toward moving on from Payton as the starting point guard of the team. At the same time, I'm not sure/convinced De'Aaron Fox or Dennis Smith Jr. would be the answers. Almost assuredly, each would be a step backward given rookie point guards have a steep learning curve. I don't believe the franchise is interested in taking a few steps back to get better long term, but we'll see. Most importantly will be finding a leader to make these tough decisions.

Uh... looking at the sweater vest tally, seems it materialises into winning more than any other player on the team

Well Done Keith!

MagicStarwipe wrote:

Def Swami wrote:Just finished reading it and it's a good wrap up of the season and hits on the key points for the future.

Wholeheartedly agree with your point on "talent collection phase." The Magic need to approach this off-season like a ground up rebuild. Forget about fit for the draft and simply draft the best player or one most likely to become a superstar. I also agree that while Elfrid Payton had some good stats to end the season, it rarely materializes into winning. I'm leaning toward moving on from Payton as the starting point guard of the team. At the same time, I'm not sure/convinced De'Aaron Fox or Dennis Smith Jr. would be the answers. Almost assuredly, each would be a step backward given rookie point guards have a steep learning curve. I don't believe the franchise is interested in taking a few steps back to get better long term, but we'll see. Most importantly will be finding a leader to make these tough decisions.

Uh... looking at the sweater vest tally, seems it materialises into winning more than any other player on the team

It's popular not to give Elf credit, I'm not sure why, I really believe in Payton, we know he can't shoot, but he can drive and draws defenders...

Elfrid has improved considerably as a shooter. Sure, he ain't a 3 point shooter, but neither has been Tony Parker for the Spurs and he has been a multiple championship point guard. Elf will be just fine if he keeps improving as a shooter especially after he shot 47% this past season from the field.

I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

Because fans like to think any player that is 6'8 or taller and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg will automatically be the next Durant. That worked out so well for AG.

BadMofoPimp wrote:

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

Because fans like to think any player that is 6'8 or taller and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg will automatically be the next Durant. That worked out so well for AG.

Every time i hear somebody compares somebody to Durant i cringe. Dude was like Jordan among looney toons at college level. Averaged 26 ppg ,11 rpg, 40% for 3 on 6 attemps and 7 free trow attemps per game. Today people trow Durant comparisons to guys like Isaac and Ingram just because they are tall and skinny.

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

Tatum played as a SF and was mainly guarded by SFs. I watched over half of his games. College basketball style is very common for deploying 3 guards or 3 Fwds. He was not a college PF like Giles was.

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

I was pro Tatum before the Tourney, but now I'm leaning more Isaac. Tatum's stock is too rich now. I like Fultz, JJ, Isaac, Tatum, Ball as of now. The recent pictures I've seen of Isaac have impressed me with his size and frame.

*I'm probably being salty because Tatum is projected to be taken before we pick. I would actually be ecstatic with Tatum if the Magic drafted him. You can't go wrong with him or Isaac IMO.

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

Tatum is a prototype SF. I watched nearly all Duke games this season. Duke played small and he matched up with SF. He does everything well for being 18 and still took over most games unlike Isaac and Jackson. Oh yeah and he did it with more options on his team than Kansas and FSU.

Edit: if you know anything about Duke bb positions are meaningless in their scheme.

PennytoShaq wrote:

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

Tatum played as a SF and was mainly guarded by SFs. I watched over half of his games. College basketball style is very common for deploying 3 guards or 3 Fwds. He was not a college PF like Giles was.

Nop.

"Since a January 23 Big Monday home loss to NC State, Duke’s season has completely turned around. Tatum became the starting power forward alongside Jefferson and a three-guard backcourt in the very next game against Wake Forest, and Duke has won seven straight entering tonight’s game at Syracuse (including six victories against KenPom top-40 units). Tatum followed up his ascent to the starting five with the best game of his young career against Notre Dame a few days later, contributing a double-double of 19 points and a career-high 14 rebounds. The Irish had considerable trouble defending the freshman, as he proved too strong for VJ Beachem and too quick for Bonzie Colson. Many of his looks came from isolations. With the guards spotting up in positions around the perimeter, Tatum was able to utilize a mid-range post-up and bully his way to the rim without fear of help defense recovering quickly enough. Per Synergy Sports, he scored six points on six isolation plays in that game, a solid number for a relatively inefficient play type.


Since that stellar outing against Notre Dame, Tatum has played more than 80 percent of the available minutes in his new role at the four."

Hang on...

Hasn't our major problem this entire rebuild been ignorance of fit?

I couldn't disagree with the plan more regarding "just take BPA and ignore fit".

That's how you assemble a team full of decent prospects that can't shoot, or maybe can't defend.

I think we need to start focusing on what exactly we want this team to look like, who we need to fill those spots, and prioritize structure, continuity, and growth over just drafting who is presumed to be BPA.

We've tried that method now for 5 years, and we are worse than ever.

pepe1991 wrote:

PennytoShaq wrote:

pepe1991 wrote:I love how most scouts ignore that Tatum is college PF and that fans are blind enough to belive that he will translate so well at SF.


In general SFs are always most overhyped draft prospects in every class. PGs are always under microscope but SF prospects get away with everything. As long as you are 6'8 and can shoot over 32% for 3 on over 12 ppg you will be drafted in first round.

Tatum played as a SF and was mainly guarded by SFs. I watched over half of his games. College basketball style is very common for deploying 3 guards or 3 Fwds. He was not a college PF like Giles was.

Nop.

"Since a January 23 Big Monday home loss to NC State, Duke’s season has completely turned around. Tatum became the starting power forward alongside Jefferson and a three-guard backcourt in the very next game against Wake Forest, and Duke has won seven straight entering tonight’s game at Syracuse (including six victories against KenPom top-40 units). Tatum followed up his ascent to the starting five with the best game of his young career against Notre Dame a few days later, contributing a double-double of 19 points and a career-high 14 rebounds. The Irish had considerable trouble defending the freshman, as he proved too strong for VJ Beachem and too quick for Bonzie Colson. Many of his looks came from isolations. With the guards spotting up in positions around the perimeter, Tatum was able to utilize a mid-range post-up and bully his way to the rim without fear of help defense recovering quickly enough. Per Synergy Sports, he scored six points on six isolation plays in that game, a solid number for a relatively inefficient play type.


Since that stellar outing against Notre Dame, Tatum has played more than 80 percent of the available minutes in his new role at the four."

You don't understand my point. He was playing like a SF but they rolled him out at the 4 since they ran a 3 guard lineup. I just said this. Tons of college teams deploy the 3 guard style lineup, including opponents of Duke. All you have to do is watch the games to see what I am saying.

PennytoShaq wrote:

pepe1991 wrote:

PennytoShaq wrote:
Tatum played as a SF and was mainly guarded by SFs. I watched over half of his games. College basketball style is very common for deploying 3 guards or 3 Fwds. He was not a college PF like Giles was.

Nop.

"Since a January 23 Big Monday home loss to NC State, Duke’s season has completely turned around. Tatum became the starting power forward alongside Jefferson and a three-guard backcourt in the very next game against Wake Forest, and Duke has won seven straight entering tonight’s game at Syracuse (including six victories against KenPom top-40 units). Tatum followed up his ascent to the starting five with the best game of his young career against Notre Dame a few days later, contributing a double-double of 19 points and a career-high 14 rebounds. The Irish had considerable trouble defending the freshman, as he proved too strong for VJ Beachem and too quick for Bonzie Colson. Many of his looks came from isolations. With the guards spotting up in positions around the perimeter, Tatum was able to utilize a mid-range post-up and bully his way to the rim without fear of help defense recovering quickly enough. Per Synergy Sports, he scored six points on six isolation plays in that game, a solid number for a relatively inefficient play type.


Since that stellar outing against Notre Dame, Tatum has played more than 80 percent of the available minutes in his new role at the four."

You don't understand my point. He was playing like a SF but they rolled him out at the 4 since they ran a 3 guard lineup. I just said this. Tons of college teams deploy the 3 guard style lineup, including opponents of Duke. All you have to do is watch the games to see what I am saying.

All i'm saying is that every year you have guys that actually play PF at college and end up being drafted as future SFs just to figure out that they don't have size for PF and speed and skills for SF. Winslow being best example. Dude was 6'5 PF at college level.

pepe1991 wrote:

PennytoShaq wrote:

pepe1991 wrote:
Nop.

"Since a January 23 Big Monday home loss to NC State, Duke’s season has completely turned around. Tatum became the starting power forward alongside Jefferson and a three-guard backcourt in the very next game against Wake Forest, and Duke has won seven straight entering tonight’s game at Syracuse (including six victories against KenPom top-40 units). Tatum followed up his ascent to the starting five with the best game of his young career against Notre Dame a few days later, contributing a double-double of 19 points and a career-high 14 rebounds. The Irish had considerable trouble defending the freshman, as he proved too strong for VJ Beachem and too quick for Bonzie Colson. Many of his looks came from isolations. With the guards spotting up in positions around the perimeter, Tatum was able to utilize a mid-range post-up and bully his way to the rim without fear of help defense recovering quickly enough. Per Synergy Sports, he scored six points on six isolation plays in that game, a solid number for a relatively inefficient play type.


Since that stellar outing against Notre Dame, Tatum has played more than 80 percent of the available minutes in his new role at the four."

You don't understand my point. He was playing like a SF but they rolled him out at the 4 since they ran a 3 guard lineup. I just said this. Tons of college teams deploy the 3 guard style lineup, including opponents of Duke. All you have to do is watch the games to see what I am saying.

All i'm saying is that every year you have guys that actually play PF at college and end up being drafted as future SFs just to figure out that they don't have size for PF and speed and skills for SF. Winslow being best example. Dude was 6'5 PF at college level.

Yes, Winslow played the exact same way the Tatum does. It is what Duke does. They play a SF at the 4 many times. I do think that Tatum has the speed and skillset to play the SF position based on what I saw from him. Much more impressive prospect to me compared to Winslow.

We will know what his speed measures out at soon at the combine. The same situation applies really to Jackson and Isaac. They also played the 4 position a lot in college. I think workouts and the combine are extremely important for figuring out what these guys can be in terms of athleticism.