The Elfrid Payton/Aaron Gordon contract extension conundrum

[Knightro]

October 31st, 2017.

That is a potentially big day in the future of the Orlando Magic. Just four short months from now Jeff Weltman and John Hammond will be faced with the decision to give or not give Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon contract extensions off their existing rookie contracts.

Elfrid Payton has shown steady, but gradual improvement over his first three seasons. His shooting has improved from every possible location inside the arc, but he simply isn't hasn't developed as even a threat from the three point line. In the era of pace and space, that could be a fatal flaw that he simply can't overcome, even if he keeps developing the other area of his game at the rate he has been.

Right now, I'd consider him in the 18th-20th best PG in the league range. An NBA caliber PG, but not a star and not a huge difference maker either.

Aaron Gordon broke his foot as a rookie and didn't see too much action. He followed that up with an extremely promising Year 2 where he posted 13.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG per 36 minutes while also playing good defense. The majority of his minutes that season came at PF, but he did see some time at SF as well. Offensively, he was much better at the 4, but defensively, he shined guarding 3s.

Then came the Ibaka trade and the Biyombo/Green signings. With Biyombo in the fold, Ibaka was basically unable to play center for any extended stretches and with Green also in the mix, that really limited the amount of time Gordon could play PF. So Frank Vogel and Rob Hennigan decided to try him as the starting small forward.

The results, to put it mildly, were not good. Gordon continued to struggle mightily with his three-point shot, but seemingly felt obligated to shoot more of them because he was playing full-time on the wing. To compound the problem, Gordon showed very little ability to effectively attack off the dribble despite an improved handle.

It was a slog of poor spacing and even worse results over the first 56 games of the season. Ibaka was then shipped out for Ross, adding a NBA caliber wing that COULD space the floor and allowing the Magic to move Gordon back to his natural power forward position.

The results were very promising. Gordon averaged 16.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG per night while shooting .503 from the field and .838 from the line. He still shot way too many threes, but he also drew more fouls and generally found better shots within his range. His defense was not good during this stretch, but he actually defended 3s decently earlier in the year. That gives me hope that could be a good cross match option moving forward.

To go even further, the Payton-Fournier-Ross-Gordon-Vucevic lineup was actually quite effective and graded out positively in a large sample size of minutes. It was the absolutely dreadful bench that murdered the Magic every night after the all-star break.

So I ask...

Should the Magic attempt to work out contract extensions with Elfrid Payton or Aaron Gordon by the October 31st deadline?

There are two schools of thought here.

No. 1 -- If Payton and/or Gordon keep improving and end up having good seasons, they will command much more money in the summer of 2018 as restricted free agents than they can reasonably ask for now. Granted, the Magic will still hold the cards with their ability to match an offer sheet, but the cheaper you pay the better.

No. 2 -- If the Magic extend Payton and/or Gordon now and they regress/don't get better, the organization will be stuck with two more bad contracts and will have a very clogged and messy cap sheet on a team that has shown it isn't very good.

What say you?

[eyriq]

Pay the men. To me they've shown enough to be included in our core. I also don't fancy a full teardown.

[djhunkyherbs]

Whatever the Magic decide to do with Gordon and Payton, they should make that decision this offseason. If they wait until next year, then they risk either overpaying for Payton and Gordon or losing them for nothing. They could, of course, be traded after signing an extension, but their trade value obviously diminishes greatly once there is a huge contract attached to them (see Tobias Harris). Truth be told, I'm sort of on the fence about whether or not they ought to be extended, but I feel strongly that they should either be signed long-term or traded before the end of next season.

[drsd]

If Payton can be resigned for something like 4 for 50 and Gordon 4 for 60, the Magic kind of need to roll with that.

The good news is that the Magic did defer from having to also consider Oladipo in this.
(This will be Philly's problem soon as well. The Process is not complete yet the players will want 8-figure per year paydays.)

..

[PennytoShaq]

I'd extend Gordon if possible. It would make trades easier if they decided to go that route. Only risk is he regresses but he doesn't show any signs of that happening. His numbers are improving outside of his 3 pointer, and some of that was due to trying to get 3s off against SFs.

[darthmerrick]

Extend them now. If they improve the cap savings might be the difference between adding a missing piece later. Even if they regress they are what 21 and 23 locked into good contracts and will be easy to move if we decide they don't fit - another team would be willing to take a chance on a young player that has shown flashes in the past on a relatively decent contract.

[MagicStarwipe]

This season could be the first time these two are put in positions to succeed from game 1 of the regular season. When that happens, these 2 can fill up a stat sheet. If you fill up a stat sheet, you get paid. Extend them now.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Wait on both IMO. They both should get plenty of run this year with 0 competition on the bench. See what they get in FA and work from that.

I'd imagine AG gets a big deal thrown at him due to hype & defensive abilities. EP probably won't unless he lights it up this year. PG's who can't stretch the D are not as valuable and can be signed for cheaper.

[j-ragg]

If Payton can be resigned for something like 4 for 50 and Gordon 4 for 60, the Magic kind of need to roll with that.

Incredibly optimistic figures. Won't be anywhere near that unfortunately. I think they end up waiting on both.

[Nemesis21]

Pay both

[Def Swami]

Free agency market won't be great for Payton. You could probably wait on him. The demand for point guards isn't high, especially ones that can't shoot.

Gordon would be wise to head to RFA. His value will only grow as the league gets smaller and faster. The Magic would be smart to lock him up if they could.

[Jameerthefear]

Extend and then look to trade.

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[AshBlackstone]

Try to move them between now and October. If you can't move them, extend them.

I'm not sure how movable Payton is. Should be a good market for Gordon, though.

[OrlChamps2030]

Free agency market won't be great for Payton. You could probably wait on him. The demand for point guards isn't high, especially ones that can't shoot.

Gordon would be wise to head to RFA. His value will only grow as the league gets smaller and faster. The Magic would be smart to lock him up if they could.

Something I haven't seen discussed in regards to Payton is the Kings drafting Fox. That's just one less team that will be pursuing him now.

[PrimeThyme]

I would extend Gordon now. Give him a full season at pf in a fast pace starting lineup that suits his strengths like post all star break and his value will only go up. Id lock him up now and try to get him at some type of discount.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

Extend AG: $16-20 million.
Elf.... send his goofy head packing. We need a better PG plain and simple.

[OrlandoDream]

We have a new front office that has no emotional attachment to the RH guys. So for the first time, their talent and value to this team will be characterized objectively. Our cap isn't great and the ManHam FO I predict will be very careful in handing out big contracts.

Gordon - Like Knightbro said, he killed it when we moved Ibaka avg 17 and 6. THIS IS WHAT WAS SUPPOSE TO HAPPEN FROM THE BEG! Rob f'ed up trading for Ibaka and wasted half a season on AG. I still believe that Hammon wants to turn Isaac/AG into Giannis/Parker 2.0. They know how important AG is to this team and the versatility he brings. I would try to extend him now in a cheaper deal similar to Fournier and move some big contracts like Biz, Vuc, DJ. If we can't reach an agreement, AG is going to be expensive next season. Think of it this way, if he was to put up the same stats next season that he did when we traded Ibaka, what kind of offer would get? If he finishes next season avg 17/7 with his age, versatility, athleticism, etc, you can be sure there are going to be teams lined up to give him max money. I mean look at the buzz Porter and KCP are generating. If one of them gets a max offer, you bet AG will do the same. Extend him now or its going to cost us more in the future.

Payton - I think he can still be a great backup PG. If we can extend him to something like 5 year 50mil or something like that then fine. I would not break the bank for him as the PG position is weak both starting and bench. I think this new regime will give him another year and unless he has a breakout all-star Rondo season, I doubt we offer him an extension and let him test the FA waters. If some team give him big money, let him go. There are other options at PG.

The point is we need to be diligent with our cap going forward. No more awful contracts like Biz and DJ.

[JF5]

I would only extend ONE guy and it wouldn't be over 13 million a year. You can't have 2 guys who are pretty undervalued with sizable contracts that can't be moved if they both don't improve immensely. You already locked yourself into signing Biyombo into such a deal. So why do you continue that trend with guys who are currently considered non-shooting/scoring rotation players and not starting caliber players. Having 3 guys paid between 13-17 million who don't move the needle for the team in any way is poor asset management/spending and it kills flexibility. I honestly believe that either one or both of them is getting traded before the off-season is over.

[Jameerthefear]

Actually thinking back the market for Payton should be pretty small so I wouldn't extend him yet. Brooklyn just got Russel and Sacramento got Fox and those I think were probably our biggest threats when it comes to making an offer. Plus he can't shoot so he's a backup PG anywhere he goes.

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[orlando_joe]

I would extend both..try and get Gordon on Fournier like deal..but would go little higher..payton around 4 for 50 sounds right