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Members might say this doesn't need its own thread, but I wanted to create a unique dialogue involving the perceptions of Elfrid Payton.

There seems to be a common trend in so many different threads involving the limitations of EP. Many doubting his ability to be our franchise point guard.

In addition to discussion board commentary, many members of the media also consistently reinforce the idea of Elfrid being good, but not quite good enough.

While I will go ahead and admit that Elfrid definitely has shortcomings in his game, I just cannot understand the negative perceptions of a young player who has averaged 11pts, 6.5ast, and 4reb in his first 3 years of his NBA career. A career with 4 different coaches in 3 seasons...
In addition to these solid numbers, he has improved his field goal percentage and scoring, in each of his 3 seasons in the NBA.

While still lacking a consistent 3 point shot, his career percentage on 3's is the exact same as Aaron Gordon's - while attempting many fewer 3pt shots-

AG seems to get the benefit of the doubt regarding his shortcomings while EP seems to get mostly doubts.

My main concern about EP is his lateral quickness on D, and his outside shot. However even if he never develops an outside shot, I still see EP as having the potential to be a top 10 point guard in this league.

Please explain to me why the Magic community just doesn't seem to believe in this guy, because everything I have seen has made me a believer in Elfrid Payton.

This is beat to death on this forum, so it's going to be the same back and forth arguments but...

His impact last year was that of a top 15-17 point guard and he's the youngest among his peer group in that area. He was tops on the Magic in a lot of advanced stats pertaining to impact, so as much as people talk about his inconsistencies, there are probably 10-12 other players you can point at with less impact and consistency.

His defense has slipped a bit (still top 15 point guard starter defense), but his offense (especially driving) has picked up. His court vision is very nice and he is a low turnover player. His shooting has gotten better (marginally in some areas), free throw percentage up, but his three point percentage was down.

For his age, he's a solid point guard. He isn't unmovable but at the same time he's not as bad as some people would like you to believe. If we had better shooting on this team, I don't think he'd get as much crap as he does. But he wasn't billed as a shooter coming out of college, so I'm willing to accept the bumps and bruises it takes to become a better shooter.

I want to point out one thing that I see people incorrectly assuming because he's a bad shooter, and that's that he's a bad offensive player. That's not necessarily true. Obviously shooting helps you become great in that area, but he's a double threat as a distributor and a good scorer when he gets into the paint. He knows his strengths and weaknesses more than others, which is why he has the impact that he does even though you might not see it from his shot.

if Elf cannot develop his outside shot more, there is no way in my opinion he could be considered a top-10 point guard. He also needs to bring intensity every night. too often he seems to coast through games with some lackadaisical play on offense and defense. But he absolutely has to refine that outside shot. i dont even care much about mid-range, he can get by with just 3 pt and layups. he has to get that 3 pt shot to 35-37% range.

and AG is at a make or break time in his career too. up until now, his calling card is defense and energy offense. He has not shown any serious offensive skills.

If Elf can give the team 75 percent from the line and 35+ from 3 while taking 3-5 a game i'm good with him. If he can"t hit that this year i"m more than ready to move on. He's just not special enough to keep around long term.

It's really the entire make-up of the team, and how they don't compliment each other. It's as if we created a puzzle with all corner pieces. Turn AG00 or Isaac into KG and Ross/Simmons into Paul Pierce and I'll take Payton.

Shooting numbers it took from the PG to get the Championship last year:

.468-.411-.898 Curry
.473-.401-.905 Irving

.471-.274-.611 Payton

Shot volume
11.1 FGA and 1.8 3PA per game for Payton

Curry:18.3 and 10 per game
Kyrie 19.7 and 6.1

Basic gut instinct:

He looked best in his rookie year. Like as if scouting reports couldn't catch up to him yet. He was a driving monster, and was super, super, super clutch in 4th quarters.

Ever since then, he's become less aggressive and less defensive. I could live without a 3 point shot maybe, but I can't live with a 12-14 ppg PG who ALSO can't shoot deep.

For me, he's a good PG already in truth. And for this next season, I don't need him to improve his %'s again, and I don't even need him to necessarily focus on defense either. In my book though, he HAS to get 16-20+ ppg with more trips to the line (minimum 60 FT%). He HAS to put the fear of God in the opposing defenses. They have to know, "oh sh*t, EP gonna feast on us in the paint." And for the opposing Coach to say, "He'll collapse our defense a lot. He can attack in the paint and in the short-mid range really well."

There's no point to a Point Guard if he's not a threat. Otherwise, he can't help collapse the defenses and get himself and his team great looks.

EP is the guy I think is gonna amaze people this season. I personally expect a huge jump in production because I believe with Vogel returning it keeps some continuity for EP and this team. PG is the hardest position to adjust to a new coach, some continuity will be good for EP and the fact that Vogel has seen what he can do with the ball in his hands doesn't hurt either.

I feel like if EP was on a team like the Wolves, people here would be in love with his game and overrate him and wish for him to be on this team. They would be praising the Wolves for picking a young player with potential. This board tends to hate on our players when they're not shiny and new and become enamored with literally anyone that's not on our team.

His hair is his best and worst attribute.

I like Elf. I want to love Elf, but he hasn't put it all together yet. He has to be aggressive 100% of the time. That is when he is his best. Passive Elf sucks. At the end of the season, if we don't make the playoffs, then I don't want to pay him starters money in the $15M per year range. If things don't improve or if they only improve slightly, then $10M per year or less is good. $12-13M is pushing it.

Obsolete.

If elfrid can improve his shooting, teams will hand him the max.

I think other teams GM's and fans value Elf a great deal more than Magic antagonists.

The most solid position on the Magic roster is PG. Not only is Payton a clear NBA-starter, who is developing improvements to his game, the Magic has a very strong bench in Mack and Augustin.

PG is definitely not our most solid position. It would be hard to trade Elf. We could trade Ross tomorrow if we really wanted to. SG is our most solid position.

At the end of the day the "public perception" probably comes from the thought "can we win a championship with player X starting at the ___ position"? I believe you can still win with an Elf/Rondo style PG if his passing is top notch. Lonzo Ball is a pass first PG with a shaky jumper but his vision is next level. Is Elf's passing elite enough to make up for him not being a threat from outside the paint? That's the million dollar question IMO.

PG is the deepest position in the NBA. There aren't many teams that will pay Elf unless his impact starts translating to wins for us this season. Not that he's not a good player because he is, it just makes more sense to either go after one of the star PG's (Kyrie/Wall etc), or try to find one through the draft who you can keep on the rookie scale for a few years. Right now who do you think teams would rather have, Elf with one year left on his contract or Dennis Smith/De'Aaron Fox in year one of their rookie deals? Value matters.

I'm a little wary about after the break numbers, but I don't necessarily want to ignore them either. After we added Ross to the SL, here were Payton's per 40 numbers:

24 games
17.9 points/40
9.3 rebounds/40
11.2 assists/40
1.39 steals/40
.77 blocks/40

115 ORTG
112 DRTG
2.6+ +/-

55.6 TS%
50.8 FG%
31.6 3P%
74.3 FT%

At the very least, that's some promising production from our 23 year old point guard. It's not enough to warrant an extension, but it might be prudent to wait and see what we have. Here are Elfrid's shooting range splits on the season:

Elfrid's 2016-17 Averages
0-3 Feet: 61% (+2.7%)
3-10 Feet: 43% (+4.9%)
10-16 Feet: 36.3% (+0.8%)
16<3P: 40.2% (+15%)
3P: 27.4% (-5.2%)
FT: 69.2% (+10.3%)

League Average for 2016-17
0-3 FT: 63.1%
3-10 FT: 41.4%
10-16 FT 41.2%
16<3P: 40.3%
3P%: 35.8%
FT%: 77.2%

The numbers tell an interesting story here. The Elfrid's shooting improved at almost every single level this year (similar to last year). He saw the biggest jump on his long two point shot and and his freethrows. Though his shot frequency from 16-3P attempts dropped slightly, he essentially shot the same volume of shots from that range as last year (97 this year, 107 last year).

Elfrid's only drop in percentages was from the 3 point line. This is due to an increase in attempts from last year (92 3PA last year, 146 this year). He shot 32.4% on corner 3P shots this year which accounted for 1/4 of his 3PA this year. It's worth noting that after the addition of Ross to the starting lineup, Elfrid's 3P percentages jumped back up to 31.6%.

Conclusion: the key to unlocking Elfrid's efficiency is his 3P shot and FT% (no duh). He started doing that towards the end of last season, but it remains to be seen if he can do that over the course of a season (or the playoffs). If he ever reaches league averages on both of those shots, he will become a very difficult match up to game plan against.

There is no way we shouldn't have taken Dennis Smith Jr, whether with out 6th pick, or trading assets like Payton to move up with our second pick.

Let's be honest, Payton is someone you want to root for. But the fact is that he has been a big part of a losing culture, whether that has been in a backup position, or as our starting point guard the last 2 years. If you look over the last 10 years, there has only been a small handful of impact players at the point guard position that had such weak shooting and thrived based on their passing (Rondo comes to mind), even Kidd got up to 40% from 3 for a few years. And he just doesn't have the vision those guys have.

Combine that with the fact that Payton has left a lot to be desired out of his defense, you can't call him a 2 way player either.

I want to see him succeed, but if the trade off is a terrible offense because of the spacing issues he creates, then that is going the opposite direction the league is heading in right now.

fateis007 wrote:There is no way we shouldn't have taken Dennis Smith Jr, whether with out 6th pick, or trading assets like Payton to move up with our second pick.

Let's be honest, Payton is someone you want to root for. But the fact is that he has been a big part of a losing culture, whether that has been in a backup position, or as our starting point guard the last 2 years. If you look over the last 10 years, there has only been a small handful of impact players at the point guard position that had such weak shooting and thrived based on their passing (Rondo comes to mind), even Kidd got up to 40% from 3 for a few years. And he just doesn't have the vision those guys have.

Combine that with the fact that Payton has left a lot to be desired out of his defense, you can't call him a 2 way player either.

I want to see him succeed, but if the trade off is a terrible offense because of the spacing issues he creates, then that is going the opposite direction the league is heading in right now.

This season is make or break for him. If he can't show improvement and consistency then I think he'll be moved at or around the deadline. I'm definitely rooting for him I've been a big fan of his ever since we drafted him and he's definitely talented.

JAY DASH wrote:Right now who do you think teams would rather have, Elf with one year left on his contract or Dennis Smith/De'Aaron Fox in year one of their rookie deals? Value matters.

I would want Payton, and it would not be a hard choice.

Smith and Fox are at least 3-years from having a positive contribution in the NBA. Payton is ready now.


..

My feelings on Payton are hot and cold. One one hand, Payton does a lot of things well, he drives the lane and has an aptitude for scoring in the paint. He's got good court vision, but it could be better, he's a solid rebounder and a good defender when motivated. The physical tools are there except for the jump shot. If he can work himself into a serviceable shooter I think Payton can be a long term starter.

The problem to me is Payton doesn't seem to have that relentless work ethic needed to do all that. There's a maturity issue there that hopefully goes away with time. He's got a tendency to be lazy on defense, and his jumper requires real time to improve. Getting rid of that horrible haircut and hooking up with a shooting coach is a step in the right direction.

Another thing that's an issue with Payton is the fact that he's a pg with absolutely no leadership skills. That I think will ultimately be Payton's undoing in Orlando.





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I like Payton, and I want to see him improve and lock down the starting PG spot for years to come.

He needs to improve his shot, and he needs to become more aggressive in his style of play. Also, he MUST play better defense.

On another note, his stats are kind of skewed because he always picks it up after the all-star break, when most players (and teams) are winding things down. That's when Payton really shines, gets all his triple-doubles, and makes a case for why he should remain our starting PG. He has to bring it hard all season long, not just when the Magic are out of the playoff race.

Jameer Nelson was another starting PG that this board was heavily divided on, and at this point in his career, Payton is not even on Nelson's level. As Max said above, Payton has to show the leadership skills of past PGs like Skiles, Hardaway, Armstrong, and Nelson if he's going to hold down a starting spot not only on this team but anywhere in the league.

The NBA is becoming a small-ball, 3-point shooting league, and Payton is going to have to adapt. I think he has the tools to become an above-average, playoff-caliber starting PG. The 4th year is typically make-or-break for guys like Payton (and Gordon), so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out this season.

MagicMadness wrote:I like Payton, and I want to see him improve and lock down the starting PG spot for years to come.

He needs to improve his shot, and he needs to become more aggressive in his style of play. Also, he MUST play better defense.

On another note, his stats are kind of skewed because he always picks it up after the all-star break, when most players (and teams) are winding things down. That's when Payton really shines, gets all his triple-doubles, and makes a case for why he should remain our starting PG. He has to bring it hard all season long, not just when the Magic are out of the playoff race.

Jameer Nelson was another starting PG that this board was heavily divided on, and at this point in his career, Payton is not even on Nelson's level. As Max said above, Payton has to show the leadership skills of past PGs like Skiles, Hardaway, Armstrong, and Nelson if he's going to hold down a starting spot not only on this team but anywhere in the league.

The NBA is becoming a small-ball, 3-point shooting league, and Payton is going to have to adapt. I think he has the tools to become an above-average, playoff-caliber starting PG. The 4th year is typically make-or-break for guys like Payton (and Gordon), so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out this season.

Yeah if Payton and Gordon aren't showing signs of improvement one or both will likely be gone come deadline time. Or in the offseason.