OFFSEASON TOPIC: Predicting Averages
Posted: Fri Sep 8, 2017 7:45 pm
3 more weeks until some real basketball action and with Irma approaching lets try to predict some of our players averages to spend the time. Would probably be a funny post to revive after the season has ended to see how accurate/off we were.
I'm going to start with our starting unit (still could change) but feel free to do the others.
Elfrid "I refuse to cut my hair even though I told you personally that I was going to cut it this summer" Payton
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/elfrid-payton/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
82 29.4 5.2-11.1 .471 0.5-1.8 .274 1.8-2.6 .692 4.7 6.5 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.2 12.8
My prediction
PPG - 10.3
APG - 7.4
RPG - 3.6
3P% - .30
Analysis - Contract year so I want to assume he's going to try to show out, but I genuinely think the odds are against him. With the acquisition of Mack and more scorers all around on the team I think his PPG dip a bit, but I do think his assist numbers go up as he's literally the only true facilitator on the team. I also think his rebounding numbers take a hit too with Gordon back to his natural position and Vuc being a pretty good rebounder. Payton has a strong work ethic and has already been shown practicing with CP3 so natural progression would say his shooting numbers will go up and I believe that (nothing staggering though). Overall I truly don't think the numbers will directly indicate his on-court worth and attribution as mostly everyone who watches him knows he does a lot of things that dont show up on the stat sheets.
Bonus - I don't think Orlando offers him an extension and let's him hit restricted free agency (which I agree with) IF not dealt by deadline for future pick.
Evan "Just call me Mr. Clutch for now on" Fournier
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/evan-fournier/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
68 32.9 6.0-13.7 .439 1.9-5.3 .356 3.3-4.1 .805 3.1 3.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.1 17.2
My prediction
PPG - 20.5
APG - 3.1
RPG - 3.0
3P% - .39
Analysis - I think Fournier breaks the 20ppg barrier this year and continues his clutch plays as the leading scorer of the team. His defense continues to be abysmal and his rebounding and shoot first pass later is consistent to last year. His shooting percentages get back to his 15-16 days and is hovering around 40% at the 3.
Bonus: Plays around 60 games
Terrence "I might be losing my starting job" Ross
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/terrence-ross/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
78 25.1 4.2-9.6 .437 1.8-5.0 .363 0.8-1.0 .831 2.6 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 0.9 11.0
My prediction
PPG - 11.8
APG - 1.5
RPG - 3.0
3P% - .37
Analysis - Terrence Ross is as inconsistent as they come. One night can go off for 35 and the next night could have 2 points which is why I think he will lose his starting job to hungry Jonathan Simmons if not by end of camp definitely sometime in the season when we go on a losing stretch. I believe he is best served off the bench as a bench scorer/6th man role. He doesn't pass the ball and seems to have a similar style of play as Fournier which we cant have two of in the starting lineup.
Bonus - I think Ross is shopped hard come deadline and combined with one of Payton/Vuc. Next year he's up for an extension and don't see Orlando wanting to pay him what he thinks he's worth especially with the acquisition of Simmons.
Aaron "I'm going to prove EVERYONE wrong" Gordon
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/aaron-gordon/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
80 28.7 4.9-10.8 .454 1.0-3.3 .288 2.0-2.7 .719 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.8 2.2 1.1 12.7
My prediction
PPG - 17.2
APG - 2.0
RPG - 7.8
3P% - .35
Analysis - Contract year and the first year him starting at his natural position fully healthy so I fully expect a somewhat breakout season for him. Averaging around 17/8 and raising his 3pt percentage to around 33%. His defense continues to impress and looks great next to Issac (Issac playing the 3 offensively and the 4 defensively). Gordon raises his percentages all across the board and looks like the player we all envisioned him to be. He is in conversation for MIP
Bonus - Orlando offers him a 4yr/70m that he declines. Hits restricted free agency where we are forced to match a max offer from the Nets.
Nikola "Everyone hates me, but I'm actually a good player" Vucevic
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/nikola-vucevic/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
75 28.8 6.4-13.7 .468 0.3-1.0 .307 1.4-2.1 .669 10.4 2.8 1.0 1.0 2.4 1.6 14.6
My prediction
PPG - 18.2
APG - 2.5
RPG - 9.4
Analysis - People tend to forget how good Vuc was when playing next to Power Forward Aaron Gordon. You could actually say he was playing his best ball of his career. Averaging 22/9 and playing solid defense. I 100% believe he will benefit most out of AG playing PF and get back to form. Nearly averaging a double double with decent defense.
Bonus - Even with Vuc playing at this level I think he's the first to go with the new regime. I truly feel as he will be dealt by deadline to the highest bidder and sell high on his value. For some odd reason I feel like he's dealt to Boston for Morris/Baynes and some pick.
Overall
I think we're better than most people are expecting, but still not good enough to make the playoffs. With the new lottery reformation about to be implemented I could def. see management being extremely active in trades and dealing two of more vets by deadline to ensure a high draft pick.
I'm going to start with our starting unit (still could change) but feel free to do the others.
Elfrid "I refuse to cut my hair even though I told you personally that I was going to cut it this summer" Payton
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/elfrid-payton/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
82 29.4 5.2-11.1 .471 0.5-1.8 .274 1.8-2.6 .692 4.7 6.5 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.2 12.8
My prediction
PPG - 10.3
APG - 7.4
RPG - 3.6
3P% - .30
Analysis - Contract year so I want to assume he's going to try to show out, but I genuinely think the odds are against him. With the acquisition of Mack and more scorers all around on the team I think his PPG dip a bit, but I do think his assist numbers go up as he's literally the only true facilitator on the team. I also think his rebounding numbers take a hit too with Gordon back to his natural position and Vuc being a pretty good rebounder. Payton has a strong work ethic and has already been shown practicing with CP3 so natural progression would say his shooting numbers will go up and I believe that (nothing staggering though). Overall I truly don't think the numbers will directly indicate his on-court worth and attribution as mostly everyone who watches him knows he does a lot of things that dont show up on the stat sheets.
Bonus - I don't think Orlando offers him an extension and let's him hit restricted free agency (which I agree with) IF not dealt by deadline for future pick.
Evan "Just call me Mr. Clutch for now on" Fournier
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/evan-fournier/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
68 32.9 6.0-13.7 .439 1.9-5.3 .356 3.3-4.1 .805 3.1 3.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.1 17.2
My prediction
PPG - 20.5
APG - 3.1
RPG - 3.0
3P% - .39
Analysis - I think Fournier breaks the 20ppg barrier this year and continues his clutch plays as the leading scorer of the team. His defense continues to be abysmal and his rebounding and shoot first pass later is consistent to last year. His shooting percentages get back to his 15-16 days and is hovering around 40% at the 3.
Bonus: Plays around 60 games
Terrence "I might be losing my starting job" Ross
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/terrence-ross/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
78 25.1 4.2-9.6 .437 1.8-5.0 .363 0.8-1.0 .831 2.6 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 0.9 11.0
My prediction
PPG - 11.8
APG - 1.5
RPG - 3.0
3P% - .37
Analysis - Terrence Ross is as inconsistent as they come. One night can go off for 35 and the next night could have 2 points which is why I think he will lose his starting job to hungry Jonathan Simmons if not by end of camp definitely sometime in the season when we go on a losing stretch. I believe he is best served off the bench as a bench scorer/6th man role. He doesn't pass the ball and seems to have a similar style of play as Fournier which we cant have two of in the starting lineup.
Bonus - I think Ross is shopped hard come deadline and combined with one of Payton/Vuc. Next year he's up for an extension and don't see Orlando wanting to pay him what he thinks he's worth especially with the acquisition of Simmons.
Aaron "I'm going to prove EVERYONE wrong" Gordon
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/aaron-gordon/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
80 28.7 4.9-10.8 .454 1.0-3.3 .288 2.0-2.7 .719 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.8 2.2 1.1 12.7
My prediction
PPG - 17.2
APG - 2.0
RPG - 7.8
3P% - .35
Analysis - Contract year and the first year him starting at his natural position fully healthy so I fully expect a somewhat breakout season for him. Averaging around 17/8 and raising his 3pt percentage to around 33%. His defense continues to impress and looks great next to Issac (Issac playing the 3 offensively and the 4 defensively). Gordon raises his percentages all across the board and looks like the player we all envisioned him to be. He is in conversation for MIP
Bonus - Orlando offers him a 4yr/70m that he declines. Hits restricted free agency where we are forced to match a max offer from the Nets.
Nikola "Everyone hates me, but I'm actually a good player" Vucevic
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/nikola-vucevic/
2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
75 28.8 6.4-13.7 .468 0.3-1.0 .307 1.4-2.1 .669 10.4 2.8 1.0 1.0 2.4 1.6 14.6
My prediction
PPG - 18.2
APG - 2.5
RPG - 9.4
Analysis - People tend to forget how good Vuc was when playing next to Power Forward Aaron Gordon. You could actually say he was playing his best ball of his career. Averaging 22/9 and playing solid defense. I 100% believe he will benefit most out of AG playing PF and get back to form. Nearly averaging a double double with decent defense.
Bonus - Even with Vuc playing at this level I think he's the first to go with the new regime. I truly feel as he will be dealt by deadline to the highest bidder and sell high on his value. For some odd reason I feel like he's dealt to Boston for Morris/Baynes and some pick.
Overall
I think we're better than most people are expecting, but still not good enough to make the playoffs. With the new lottery reformation about to be implemented I could def. see management being extremely active in trades and dealing two of more vets by deadline to ensure a high draft pick.
), Mario (20min, 10ppg,3.5apg)! Biz (18min, 7ppg, 7rpg, 1.5 big)