Official Speculation Thread '17-'18: Volume XIII

[fullrespect]

AG wants to be the greatest!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/13/san-jose-native-aaron-gordons-goal-i-want-to-be-the-greatest/

Love the confidence, but has a looooong way to go.

[Skybox]

Let's say we are able to offload Biz's contract, basically at the price of the OKC late first pick...then what? We have to re-up AG and Elf. Assuming we do that, will we have any meaningful cap space? I know cap space is gold these days with little competition to pay FA's, but I'm not concerned with saving the owner money from penalties...I'd hate to give up a pick just for that. I don't hate having a bruiser off the bench in Biz, who IS capable of exceptional D in spurts. My only big complaint is his deal...If it actually could free up FA meaningful cap space - I'm all in. Where are we at?

[UCFJayBird]

Let's say we are able to offload Biz's contract, basically at the price of the OKC late first pick...then what? We have to re-up AG and Elf. Assuming we do that, will we have any meaningful cap space? I know cap space is gold these days with little competition to pay FA's, but I'm not concerned with saving the owner money from penalties...I'd hate to give up a pick just for that. I don't hate having a bruiser off the bench in Biz, who IS capable of exceptional D in spurts. My only big complaint is his deal...If it actually could free up FA meaningful cap space - I'm all in. Where are we at?

edited after Jiwol pointed out I subtracted wrong. -_-

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $65m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 38m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $3-6m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to nothing for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $20m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

[Jiwol]

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $55m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 48m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $13-16m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to 10-13m for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all. Worth swapping Biz for? I think so, but could understand the argument against it.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $30m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

82 minus 17 is 65, man

[OhioRock3]

Let's say we are able to offload Biz's contract, basically at the price of the OKC late first pick...then what? We have to re-up AG and Elf. Assuming we do that, will we have any meaningful cap space? I know cap space is gold these days with little competition to pay FA's, but I'm not concerned with saving the owner money from penalties...I'd hate to give up a pick just for that. I don't hate having a bruiser off the bench in Biz, who IS capable of exceptional D in spurts. My only big complaint is his deal...If it actually could free up FA meaningful cap space - I'm all in. Where are we at?

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $55m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 48m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $13-16m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to 10-13m for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all. Worth swapping Biz for? I think so, but could understand the argument against it.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $30m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

Are there even any decent free agents that would help us?

[UCFJayBird]

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $55m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 48m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $13-16m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to 10-13m for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all. Worth swapping Biz for? I think so, but could understand the argument against it.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $30m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

82 minus 17 is 65, man

It's too early for this nonsense!

So in other words, we have very little cap even without Biz.

[Jiwol]

Are there even any decent free agents that would help us?

Cousins and Paul. And LeBron has an option. Trade out Fourner, Biz, Vuc, DJ and Ross for picks, sign all three, resign AG, we're set!

Paul / whoever
Simmons / Iwundu
LeBron / whoever
AG / Isaac
Cousins / Birch

[rcklsscognition]

QOs do not mean anything unless AG or EP accept them. I see almost no scenario where this takes place. What we go off for signing free agents and the cap is AG's cap hold of $16,513,259 and EP's of $9,997,020. What that means in practical terms is we have $26,510,279 in used cap space before we sign AG and EP or trade them or release them. You do not get to exclude this from our cap when you are signing other players. The QO is only if we extend that to them and they accept, basically make them a 1 and done for the 18-19 season when they would become UFA.

If we can secure free agents before EP or AG get offers, we can sign them up to the cap but you must count the QOs for AG and EP when calculatig how much space we have. Then we choose to resign or match AG and EP and can go over the cap. The problem is we have no space to operate.

We have $77,180,655 in guaranteed money on the books next summer but we also have to include the $26,510,279 of holds for AG and EP. We also have $8,166,627 in cap holds for Afflalo, Hezjona, and Speights. We would also have 2 minimum salary holds of ~$582,180 each if we waived Afflalo, Hezonja, and Speights. So $1,164,360 there.

The small numbers don't matter much, if there are errors, it isn't too important, because players will move around before then and some will be brought back. Either way, unless we unload a big contract, we're cap stuck.

With just our guaranteed guys and AG and EP we are at $103,690,934. With minimum roster slots, we're probably already at $105 million. That means no free agents. In order to get to that $105 we'd have to waive Birch, Afflalo, Speights, Hezonja, and Mack.

Next summer is when we truly feel the pain of having 30 million locked into one position (Biz and Vuc). If we keep what we have, and let's say AG gets 20 and EP 12, we are then approaching if not going over 110 million and we'd have a ton of holes on the roster.

I think Welham will have to move one of our bigger contracts for a cheaper replacement. What we may see if a Vet for Youth trade, followed by a free agent signing of a cheaper contract to replace the traded player. For example:

Trade Vuc for a young prospect and a pick, use 6-8 million in salary to sign a free agent to lower the cap.

Trade Biz and a pick for a prospect and use half his salary to sign a replacement.

You may also see Vuc or Biz moved and then Birch resigned at half their cost. We've also got too much at the SG, so Ross is probably on the market.

[rcklsscognition]

Let's say we are able to offload Biz's contract, basically at the price of the OKC late first pick...then what? We have to re-up AG and Elf. Assuming we do that, will we have any meaningful cap space? I know cap space is gold these days with little competition to pay FA's, but I'm not concerned with saving the owner money from penalties...I'd hate to give up a pick just for that. I don't hate having a bruiser off the bench in Biz, who IS capable of exceptional D in spurts. My only big complaint is his deal...If it actually could free up FA meaningful cap space - I'm all in. Where are we at?

edited after Jiwol pointed out I subtracted wrong. -_-

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $65m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 38m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $3-6m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to nothing for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $20m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

They have a huge cap hold, $26,510,279.

[UCFJayBird]

Let's say we are able to offload Biz's contract, basically at the price of the OKC late first pick...then what? We have to re-up AG and Elf. Assuming we do that, will we have any meaningful cap space? I know cap space is gold these days with little competition to pay FA's, but I'm not concerned with saving the owner money from penalties...I'd hate to give up a pick just for that. I don't hate having a bruiser off the bench in Biz, who IS capable of exceptional D in spurts. My only big complaint is his deal...If it actually could free up FA meaningful cap space - I'm all in. Where are we at?

edited after Jiwol pointed out I subtracted wrong. -_-

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $65m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 38m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $3-6m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to nothing for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $20m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

They have a huge cap hold, $26,510,279.

how's that calculated? I thought it was like 125% of the last year's salary.

[OhioRock3]

Are there even any decent free agents that would help us?

Cousins and Paul. And LeBron has an option. Trade out Fourner, Biz, Vuc, DJ and Ross for picks, sign all three, resign AG, we're set!

Paul / whoever
Simmons / Iwundu
LeBron / whoever
AG / Isaac
Cousins / Birch

I meant realistic options, but fantasy is fun too

[rcklsscognition]

edited after Jiwol pointed out I subtracted wrong. -_-

salary cap is about $99m right now. Team salary is about $102m at the moment. According to HoopsHype, our committed salary for next season is about $82m, excluding the QO's of Payton & Gordon, as well as the team option for Khem Birch. Biz will make about $17m next season, so take that off and we're down to $65m.

So the cap should go up 3-4 mext season, so let's put the cap at 102-103m. That leaves us about 38m to sign Gordon, Payton, draft picks, and any additional free agents, assuming no other moves. Honestly Gordon is probably gonna command around $20m per, maybe more depending how the rest of the season goes. Payton maybe 12-15m per? So basically with cutting Biz, and no one else, we'd be down to about $3-6m in cap space. Take out a few mil for a draft pick or two and we're down to nothing for a couple roster spots. Not very much at all.

edit: It's worth noting though that, if i'm not wrong, we could sign free agents before Payton and Gordon (who would only have a relatively small cap hold at that point) and then go into the luxury with resigning them. So theoretically we'd have like $20m to sign free agents and then resign Gordon and Payton going over and into the luxury cap. Whether the team is willing and the timing would work out is another matter (had this option a few years ago and it didn't work out).

They have a huge cap hold, $26,510,279.

how's that calculated? I thought it was like 125% of the last year's salary.

I believe they are 125% of a scale based on draft pick. The new CBA scaled up older contracts too so they were more in line with the new cap situation.

Scratch above. I found this:

Under the new CBA, those figures will increase to 250% and 300%. 

[Blue_and_Whte]

Read on Twitter

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So we're exponentially better with Vuc and Fournier on the floor than not... I didn't need a graph to tell me that. Good post though.

[j-ragg]

AG wants to be the greatest!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/13/san-jose-native-aaron-gordons-goal-i-want-to-be-the-greatest/

Selfish imo. Wanting to be better than all of his teammates. That’s why you don’t get the ball!

[Knightro]

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[pepe1991]

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So we're exponentially better with Vuc and Fournier on the floor than not... I didn't need a graph to tell me that. Good post though.

Is PrimeShaq on suicide watch? That graphic didn't say that Gordon should take at lest 85 FGA a night ?

[Blue_and_Whte]

AG wants to be the greatest!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/13/san-jose-native-aaron-gordons-goal-i-want-to-be-the-greatest/

Selfish imo. Wanting to be better than all of his teammates. That’s why you don’t get the ball!

I think you mean, he doesn't get the ball ....enough to satisfy realgm users. Taking more shots doesn't equal greatness.

[BadMofoPimp]

AG wants to be the greatest!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/13/san-jose-native-aaron-gordons-goal-i-want-to-be-the-greatest/

Love the confidence, but has a looooong way to go.

AG just wants that Max contract.

[j-ragg]

AG wants to be the greatest!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/13/san-jose-native-aaron-gordons-goal-i-want-to-be-the-greatest/

Selfish imo. Wanting to be better than all of his teammates. That’s why you don’t get the ball!

I think you mean, he doesn't get the ball ....enough to satisfy realgm users. Taking more shots doesn't equal greatness.

lol he doesn’t even have to shoot more. Just be involved. But yet every play it’s just your boys picking and popping and Gordon is relegated to standing in the corner and playing garbage man. But I’m sure I’m making it all up.

[T-Cat]

AG wants to be the greatest!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/13/san-jose-native-aaron-gordons-goal-i-want-to-be-the-greatest/

Love the confidence, but has a looooong way to go.

AG just wants that Max contract.

AG could get there he just has to have teammates who doesn't play selfish basketball, he likes playing with EP!

We should look to move Fournier and his buddy Vucevic!

That play against the Trailblazers where Fournier and Vucevic were playing pick and roll, but Fournier couldn't find Vucevic so he jacked up an ill advised jump shot! (Which also resulted in Vuc throwing his hands up in digust)!

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y75jusyd